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AMD Launch- Another lack of product

1 hour ago, SPARTAN VI said:

According to Kyle Bennett (former HardOCP owner/editor), who still has industry contacts:

 

TL;DR Keep calm, and mash F5

Yeah I posted this in another thread but I'll say it again here. Just because stock disappears quickly on day 1 doesn't mean there is no stock available (I mean what product doesn't disappear on day 1?). I remember getting the GTX 970 on like the first week it came out and I had to wait like 4 weeks before it even shipped. The thing that seems bad to me about Nvidia stock is that we're practically a full month into their launch and it seems like their stock situation hasn't improved in the slightest. So the real sign of whether AMD has decent supply or not will be the coming weeks. 

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Surprise surprise. I laugh at the people that thought it'd be better than Nvidias, though honestly I didn't think it'd actually be worse. Some retailers in Canada that got 3000 series stock didn't get any AMD GPUs, and they're not even taking back orders like they were for Nvidia...they have no idea when they're getting more. That's a real bad sign, and honestly, pretty disappointing coming from AMD, a company that only launches their reference series at launch. Technically they should have even more supply, as they have fewer board partners to worry about.

 

3 hours ago, porina said:

Planning for these launches were likely done pre-covid. What might have been a good decision then is not a good decision today. Making changes to plans is not trivial. Any change to do things faster will add costs, and the later the changes, the higher the cost. Then you're left with a difficult situation. If they increase pricing people get upset, and the other option is to eat the extra costs, which isn't appealing either.

 

We don't know the true limit that is preventing increased manufacturing rates to keep up with demand. If it is the GPU, it is not easy to order more, especially if the fab is already at capacity. Other components may also be in shortage. I'm guessing the limit is not the physical manufacturing or distribution side, those are more scalable.

I don't think physical manufacturing is that easy to ramp up. At least not as far as chip production is concerned. Most of the fabs don't have extra capacity, and it's not like you can just go build another fab, that takes years.

3 hours ago, eeeee1 said:

This is why its so funny to watch all the fanboys on launch day crying that they didn't get a new card.

patience is like common sense.

It's not only fanboys though. There's lots of people looking to buy cards this time of year, it's usually the best time to build a new PC regardless if you care about a particular brand or not.

2 hours ago, Lord Vile said:

Scalpers and bots are your answer. Just checked eBay for the 6800/XT and there's already 20 listings listed for 2x MSRP or more

Far from it.

Those are only created because of poor supply. Also, because of this, people that might have otherwise kept it just sell it because, why not? You're getting twice the money for something that you can just buy later on, like a normal person. The issue is supply, and those that are willing to pay the higher price.

2 hours ago, DavidKalinowski said:

I honestly believe a good part of the "shortage" is marketing. What better way to hype of a product then to not let people have it. It makes it exclusive and some how better. If they really wanted to have inventory on launch day, they would simply move the launch day (or announce it) farther back so that they have inventory. They could have easily build up a supply, and then made the announcement that it launches in 2 weeks. BUT they wont, because then every one would get it that wanted it, and there would be no hype to keep people looking at and watching to see what comes next.

That makes no sense. No company wants to have something that everyone wants, that they can't sell.

It's only exclusive if it has limited stock and that limited stock stays that way, which is not the case here.

2 hours ago, DriftMan said:

Everybody is blaming manufacturers for the "low" supply, but nobody is blaming those who are upgrading every 6-12 months, who are a big part of the demand. There are people who have been waiting so long to get a new GPU, or to replace their really old systems, and I understand their frustration, but never forget those who are just buying every single new GPU that comes out for the sake of getting the latest tech.

As has already been said, that's a very, very small percentage of the market. Look at the Steam Hardware survey. What's the top GPU? Nothing current. For 6 places.

It's not even from the 3000 series. It's a 2000 series entry level card. Those generally aren't people that upgrade every generation.

2 hours ago, SPARTAN VI said:

According to Kyle Bennett (former HardOCP owner/editor), who still has industry contacts:

 

TL;DR Keep calm, and mash F5

How did Nvidia abandon the market? They haven't. They just don't have supply. Just like AMD doesn't have supply. That statement really makes no sense at all.

Smells like someone has AMD stock and is trying to assert a narrative.

2 hours ago, DriftMan said:

you know what percentage of the customers are those? Because I don't, but I constantly read people purchasing advice saying their system is not even 1 year old

It's not hard to gather if you look into Steam Surveys and such.

Also, forums are a horrible way to gauge anything. It's a group of enthusiasts, and a very narrow one at that. Most of my friends game, most of them have pretty high end rigs, and I'm the only one that goes onto forums. Forum goers are a very small pool of an already small market.

1 hour ago, spartaman64 said:

also keep in mind this is just the reference launch. unless amd kept all the chips for themselves there will be a bigger AIB launch later

now i expect that to be sold out also but i also expect stock to stabilize much sooner than with the rtx 3000 series because TSMC has better yields etc than samsung

The yields for Samsung really aren't that bad though, and it would depend more on capacity than yields. IE if Samsung is putting out 1,000 chips and 300 are bad vs TSMC putting out 600 and 100 are bad. You're still getting more. TSMC supplies many other vendors, and I don't think Samsung does as much.

 

I've always hated how AMD only releases their reference cards first.

1 hour ago, TheBahrbarian said:

Yeah I posted this in another thread but I'll say it again here. Just because stock disappears quickly on day 1 doesn't mean there is no stock available (I mean what product doesn't disappear on day 1?). I remember getting the GTX 970 on like the first week it came out and I had to wait like 4 weeks before it even shipped. The thing that seems bad to me about Nvidia stock is that we're practically a full month into their launch and it seems like their stock situation hasn't improved in the slightest. So the real sign of whether AMD has decent supply or not will be the coming weeks. 

Sounds more like the vendor you bought it from was just selling stock they didn't actually have, hoping that they'd be able to get the stock and ship it before you asked for a refund. Linus commented on something similar to this when he worked at NCIX.

 

Most places will let you back order an Nvidia card, and you'll get it a few weeks later. This isn't true for AMD. That shows to a larger stock issue.

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2 hours ago, Blademaster91 said:

But people haven't been upgrading every year because the RTX 2000 series wasn't even an upgrade for those using a GTX 1000

i am still on gtx900

because gtx1000 was inflated by mining

rtx2000 was a shit show

rtx3000 was just legendaries to find one without inflated scapling price

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3 hours ago, DavidKalinowski said:

honestly believe a good part of the "shortage" is marketing

It's pretty obvious, yeah. Problem is its really hard to prove.... 

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23 minutes ago, dizmo said:

I don't think physical manufacturing is that easy to ramp up.

When I said physical manufacture, I was referring to the assembly of the video cards, not the fab process which I covered separately in my reply. Apologies if that wasn't clear.

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On 11/18/2020 at 10:31 AM, dizmo said:

How did Nvidia abandon the market? They haven't. They just don't have supply. Just like AMD doesn't have supply. That statement really makes no sense at all.

Ask him yourself. From his quote, "Once AIB cards hit, you will see 5 to 7 times the inventory released than what NV has shipped total in NA at this time." So according to his industry connections and decades of industry expertise, which has historically closely mirrored reality, AMD does/will have the supply and we'll see that in the coming weeks (hence the "back loading" point he mentioned).

 

Quote

Smells like someone has AMD stock and is trying to assert a narrative.

I don't think you realize how tired the "Kyle is a shill" card really is. He's been accused of being an Nvidia shill when "slamming" the ATI Xpress 200 chipset in the early 2000s, and again for "slamming" AMD on Polaris and cherry picking review sites for the R9 Fury launch. [H] was snubbed by AMD for review samples going forward. Then he's been accused of being an AMD shill for slamming Nvidia on GPP and the RTX 20-series space invader issues. Most recently, he worked for Intel as a Director for Enthusiast Engagement (basically their marketing arm, I assume), instantly and permanently shutting down [H]ard|OCP's hardware news & review arms before leaving Intel to support his son who was battling cancer. So really, your statement makes no sense at all.

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45 minutes ago, SAVE-12-HK said:

i am still on gtx900

because gtx1000 was inflated by mining

rtx2000 was a shit show

rtx3000 was just legendaries to find one without inflated scapling price

GTX 500 series boooiiii

*sweating nervously*

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2 minutes ago, porina said:

When I said physical manufacture, I was referring to the assembly of the video cards, not the fab process which I covered separately in my reply. Apologies if that wasn't clear.

Ahh, that makes more sense.

1 minute ago, SPARTAN VI said:

Ask him yourself. From his quote, "Once AIB cards hit, you will see 5 to 7 times the inventory released than what NV has shipped total in NA at this time." So according to his industry connections and decades of industry expertise, which has historically been a pretty good gauge on reality, AMD does/will have the supply and we'll see that in the coming weeks.

 

I don't think you realize how tired the "Kyle is a shill" card really is. He's been accused of being an Nvidia shill when slamming AMD on Polaris and cherry picking review sites. They were snubbed by AMD for review samples going forward. Then he's been accused of being an AMD shill for slamming Nvidia on GPP and the space invader issues. Most recently, he worked for Intel as a Director for Enthusiast Engagement (basically their marketing arm, I assume), instantly shutting down HardOCP's hardware news & review arm before leaving Intel to support his son who was battling cancer.

I don't believe anything anyone spouts. I'll wait and see for myself, but frankly, I don't think it'll come to fruition.

 

I have no idea who he is, nor do I particularly care. My comment was based on his. I know nothing of his past.

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1 hour ago, dizmo said:

It's not only fanboys though. There's lots of people looking to buy cards this time of year, it's usually the best time to build a new PC regardless if you care about a particular brand or not.

 december or close enough to december is a good time to shop for savings and gifts i guess.

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@dizmo Not asking you to care, but context matters. His voice rises to the top of the faceless forum masses if you take into account [H]'s stellar reporting track record. Why? Most recently, if you remember when the hardware enthusiast world was buzzing about GPP? Yeah, Kyle Bennett's reporting broke that story and resulted in Nvidia mothballing GPP entirely after getting a visit from the FTC.

 

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I'm not sure what the point of complaining that whatever Company not Producing enough New Product so Vendors will have enough stock on hand for everyone to buy. After all, what Company ever managed to do this?

 

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33 minutes ago, whm1974 said:

I'm not sure what the point of complaining that whatever Company not Producing enough New Product so Vendors will have enough stock on hand for everyone to buy. After all, what Company ever managed to do this?

 

10 - 20 years ago, before they realized having artificially limited stock is more profitable? Like all of them... 

 

For example: I went into stores when ps1/ps2 released day 1, got one, no issues at all, tons of stock... 

 

It was around ps360 days when this all started. 

 

^around the same time also iPhone I guess, they're literally making it an happening of ppl camping outside the store due to limited stock... 

 

 

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1 hour ago, BlueChinchillaEatingDorito said:

GTX 500 series boooiiii

*sweating nervously*

We are in the same club! I'm rocking a 560ti ^_^ it plays what I need it too..

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24 minutes ago, DavidKalinowski said:

We are in the same club! I'm rocking a 560ti ^_^ it plays what I need it too..

GTX 550Ti, thing can barely muster 30 FPS at 720 lowest in Destiny 2 oof.

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1 hour ago, BlueChinchillaEatingDorito said:

GTX 550Ti, thing can barely muster 30 FPS at 720 lowest in Destiny 2 oof.

my 560ti was able to play destiny 2 in 1080 at barley 30, at 720 is was getting 35-40 ish. would slow down during large amounts of battle. I have not played it in  a while though.  (i also OCed the card for that game.)

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7 hours ago, eeeee1 said:

 december or close enough to december is a good time to shop for savings and gifts i guess.

Black Friday is before December ;)

7 hours ago, SPARTAN VI said:

@dizmo Not asking you to care, but context matters. His voice rises to the top of the faceless forum masses if you take into account [H]'s reporting history. Why? If you remember when the hardware enthusiast world was buzzing about GPP? Yeah, Kyle's reporting broke that story and resulted in Nvidia mothballing GPP entirely.

 

Being right about one thing doesn't immediately make you right about everything.

7 hours ago, Mark Kaine said:

10 - 20 years ago, before they realized having artificially limited stock is more profitable? Like all of them... 

 

For example: I went into stores when ps1/ps2 released day 1, got one, no issues at all, tons of stock... 

 

It was around ps360 days when this all started. 

 

^around the same time also iPhone I guess, they're literally making it an happening of ppl camping outside the store due to limited stock...

How exactly does limited stock become more profitable than selling product?

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13 hours ago, SAVE-12-HK said:

i am still on gtx900

because gtx1000 was inflated by mining

rtx2000 was a shit show

rtx3000 was just legendaries to find one without inflated scapling price

The GTX 900 series are still good cards, but the prices have gone up since the GTX 1000 series, I went for a GTX 1080 instead of a RTX 2080 instead because there wasn't much a performance upgrade, and the GTX cards were cheaper. The RTX 3000 series launch could've gone much better, and the capacitor issue on partner cards was a mess as well.

13 hours ago, Mark Kaine said:

It's pretty obvious, yeah. Problem is its really hard to prove.... 

It could be that Nvidia wants to sell every card they make, rather than make extra and there would be inventory sitting on shelves and in warehouses, then Nvidia gets free marketing from news sites reporting on supply issues, people that can't get a card makes that product seem even more desirable.

I'm not so sure with AMD, they also have Zen 3, Zen 2 based console CPU's, and RDNA console GPU's on TSMC manufacturing so that could cause manufacturing issues with RX 6000 GPU's.

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11 minutes ago, Blademaster91 said:

It could be that Nvidia wants to sell every card they make, rather than make extra and there would be inventory sitting on shelves and in warehouses, then Nvidia gets free marketing from news sites reporting on supply issues, people that can't get a card makes that product seem even more desirable.

I believe that's also why they went Samsung for the first batch... They can always be like, well it's Samsung they're 'new' at this... We would have more cards if we only could... T^T

 

It's very clearly a paper launch, but as said it's hard to prove, without hard facts (you'd need internal data from nvidia for a start) and while it's illegal in some countries, I have a feeling authorities won't really care... (and nvidia knows this too lol) 

 

 

14 minutes ago, Blademaster91 said:

I'm not so sure with AMD, they also have Zen 3, Zen 2 based console CPU's, and RDNA console GPU's on TSMC manufacturing so that could cause manufacturing issues with RX 6000 GPU's.

I agree AMD would have better arguments here, though we don't even really know the situation yet, maybe AIBs won't be having supply issues... The "FE" cards are always kind of like limited editions so it's expected... 

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Hot take: the fact that we're seeing basic issues with designs such as the capacitors on the partner cards shows that PC gaming is becoming more and more commercialised and component companies no longer build things to last, I'd argue that was planned obsolescence. 

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I don't know what the big deal is, just look on Kijiji, there are dozens of cards for sale, you can even buy a preorder.(not real cards yet, just dbags with order confirmations.)

 

Good news is that the scalped rtx 30series prices are dropping fast.  

 

Rtx 20 series prices are up though? 

 

 

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On 11/18/2020 at 11:57 AM, SPARTAN VI said:

Ask him yourself. From his quote, "Once AIB cards hit, you will see 5 to 7 times the inventory released than what NV has shipped total in NA at this time." So according to his industry connections and decades of industry expertise, which has historically closely mirrored reality, AMD does/will have the supply and we'll see that in the coming weeks (hence the "back loading" point he mentioned).

Hmmm. Looks like he was wrong. Surprise surprise.

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On 11/25/2020 at 8:31 AM, dizmo said:

Hmmm. Looks like he was wrong. Surprise surprise.

How was he wrong? The quote said AMD back loaded their inventory and it's barely been 1 week since the RX 6000 launch. If we saw 5-7x  the inventory in the first week, then that would be the definition of "front loading" inventory, which is what Nvidia did. Despite this fact, HardOCP's poll revealed that 400% more [H] users were able to purchase RX 6800's over RTX 3080's on launch day (he does note it's a small sample size). 

 

image.thumb.png.d5e17bc6560ea8b4e2acbd3bcbbfeec0.png

 

And his AIB insider source suggests that it's closer to 8x the inventory that will be shipped to NA throughout 2020:

 

image.thumb.png.064c7a24f2dee5a14d2882829fae188d.png

 

Keep your booger finger off the "told ya so" button until Q4 closes out. 

 

Quote

Being right about one thing doesn't immediately make you right about everything.

Literally posted a half dozen examples of [H]'s reporting track record, but whatever... ignorance is bliss. If anyone has an axe to grind, it's clearly not Kyle here. 

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On 11/18/2020 at 10:31 AM, dizmo said:

How did Nvidia abandon the market? They haven't.

To answer this question, we just needed to hop over to Nvidia's record Q3 earnings where it appears they moved an estimated 500K ASIC units in Q3 2020. The decision to ear mark so much silicon for ASIC production must have come at the cost of RTX 30-series production since semiconductor fabricators are likely the production bottleneck. 

 

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23 minutes ago, SPARTAN VI said:

How was he wrong? The quote said AMD back loaded their inventory and it's barely been 1 week since the RX 6000 launch. If we saw 5-7x  the inventory in the first week, then that would be the definition of "front loading" inventory, which is what Nvidia did. Despite this fact, HardOCP's poll revealed that 400% more [H] users were able to purchase RX 6800's over RTX 3080's on launch day (he does note it's a small sample size). 

 

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And his AIB insider source suggests that it's closer to 8x the inventory will be shipped to NA throughout Q4 2020:

 

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Keep your booger finger off the "told ya so" button until Q4 closes out. 

 

Oh, quoting a different website, smart. Shall we touch on what you actually said again, just in case you forgot?

Quote

Ask him yourself. From his quote, "Once AIB cards hit, you will see 5 to 7 times the inventory released than what NV has shipped total in NA at this time." So according to his industry connections and decades of industry expertise, which has historically closely mirrored reality, AMD does/will have the supply and we'll see that in the coming weeks (hence the "back loading" point he mentioned).

Which simply isn't true in the least.

Not only that, back loading inventory and having none available at launch has to be one of the stupidest strategies I've ever heard.

 

 

3 minutes ago, SPARTAN VI said:

To answer this question, we just needed to hop over to Nvidia's record Q3 earnings where it appears they moved an estimated 500K ASIC units in Q3 2020. The decision to ear mark so much silicon for ASIC production must have come at the cost of RTX 30-series production since semiconductor fabricators are likely the production bottleneck. 

 

image.thumb.png.ba32ece8a8c0e9b1dd898df6a1cb8c56.png

 

image.thumb.png.752e8f3c6eab3049dcb8b0a5510aebfb.png

Unlikely, unless they use the same Samsung silicone. Which IIRC was new for this series of GPU.

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2 minutes ago, dizmo said:

Unlikely, unless they use the same Samsung silicone. Which IIRC was new for this series of GPU.

This is off-topic, but does the post-counter not go past 30k?

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