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AMD Launch- Another lack of product

Nuclear_Fermion
By Nuclear_Fermion
in General Discussion
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Forgive me if this has been discussed somewhere else but it seems that after all this time, AMDs launch has gone the same way as NVIDIAs with some retailers even going so far as saying they aren't even accepting back orders. Seeing as Twitter is a firestorm right now, I just want to ask the question as a layman- why are launches being bungled so badly? 

 

 

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Welcome to any new piece of technology launch over the last 5 years... always zero inventory on launch days, usually normalizes in 3-4 months. 

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Because there are only like 5 chip fabs in the entire world. TSMC, Samsung, Global foundries, Intel, and I think Marvell. 

▓ƆԀ▓ S▓₱▓Ɇ▓c▓s▓: i7 6ʇɥפᴉƎ00K (4.4ghz), Asus DeLuxe X99A II, GT҉X҉1҉0҉8҉0 Zotac Amp ExTrꍟꎭe),Si6F4Gb D???????r PlatinUm, EVGA G2 Sǝʌǝᘉ5ᙣᙍᖇᓎᙎᗅᖶt, Phanteks Enthoo Primo, 3TB WD Black, 500gb 850 Evo, H100iGeeTeeX, Windows 10, K70 R̸̢̡̭͍͕̱̭̟̩̀̀̃́̃͒̈́̈́͑̑́̆͘͜ͅG̶̦̬͊́B̸͈̝̖͗̈́, G502, HyperX Cloud 2s, Asus MX34. פN∩SW∀S 960 EVO

Just keeping this here as a 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Planning for these launches were likely done pre-covid. What might have been a good decision then is not a good decision today. Making changes to plans is not trivial. Any change to do things faster will add costs, and the later the changes, the higher the cost. Then you're left with a difficult situation. If they increase pricing people get upset, and the other option is to eat the extra costs, which isn't appealing either.

 

We don't know the true limit that is preventing increased manufacturing rates to keep up with demand. If it is the GPU, it is not easy to order more, especially if the fab is already at capacity. Other components may also be in shortage. I'm guessing the limit is not the physical manufacturing or distribution side, those are more scalable.

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Just now, BuckGup said:

Because there are only like 5 chip fabs in the entire world. TSMC, Samsung, Global foundries, Intel, and I think Marvell. 

That makes sense, and with manufacturers constantly demanding new fabrication standards it's no wonder they can't meet the demand. The grade of silicon probably needs to be a large cut above the rest too- I wish more people would realise this...

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2 minutes ago, Skiiwee29 said:

Welcome to any new piece of technology launch over the last 5 years... always zero inventory on launch days, usually normalizes in 3-4 months. 

This is why its so funny to watch all the fanboys on launch day crying that they didn't get a new card.

patience is like common sense.

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Just now, Nuclear_Fermion said:

That makes sense, and with manufacturers constantly demanding new fabrication standards it's no wonder they can't meet the demand. The grade of silicon probably needs to be a large cut above the rest too- I wish more people would realise this...

I think it just tells us we need to get off silicon as it's not a viable solution anymore

▓ƆԀ▓ S▓₱▓Ɇ▓c▓s▓: i7 6ʇɥפᴉƎ00K (4.4ghz), Asus DeLuxe X99A II, GT҉X҉1҉0҉8҉0 Zotac Amp ExTrꍟꎭe),Si6F4Gb D???????r PlatinUm, EVGA G2 Sǝʌǝᘉ5ᙣᙍᖇᓎᙎᗅᖶt, Phanteks Enthoo Primo, 3TB WD Black, 500gb 850 Evo, H100iGeeTeeX, Windows 10, K70 R̸̢̡̭͍͕̱̭̟̩̀̀̃́̃͒̈́̈́͑̑́̆͘͜ͅG̶̦̬͊́B̸͈̝̖͗̈́, G502, HyperX Cloud 2s, Asus MX34. פN∩SW∀S 960 EVO

Just keeping this here as a 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Just now, BuckGup said:

I think it just tells us we need to get off silicon as it's not a viable solution anymore

I agree, current technology and logistical requirements make it unviable in the consumer market 

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2 minutes ago, Cvet76 said:

Exactly. Also, patience ensures me that when I buy later, I get a more mature, less buggy product.

Yeah I've never understood why people need to have the product straight away, I get that it's nice to have the latest and greatest but it's not like the current/last generation isn't good. 

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At the minute, jayztwocents is taking a beating from all the people whou couldn't get one. He's right about it though, even though we can't get the card yet someone has to do the benchmarking and stuff otherwise we have no idea how it performs lol

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3 minutes ago, Nuclear_Fermion said:

Yeah I've never understood why people need to have the product straight away, I get that it's nice to have the latest and greatest but it's not like the current/last generation isn't good. 

You need to understand people to understand this.  Basic human psychology.  Literally ANY new product is looked at this way by people.

 

Also, I do agree that COVID plays a part.  Manufacturing is way down across the planet, not just the major foundries.  Shipping and customs are taking multiples of time to be completed.

 

Due to the above, bots/scalpers are noticing a much higher uptick in profits.  Obviously I don't have numbers,  but logically I would take advantage of a world climate such as we have.  Scalping when there is a lot of supply doesn't make as much sense.

 

 

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I honestly believe a good part of the "shortage" is marketing. What better way to hype of a product then to not let people have it. It makes it exclusive and some how better. If they really wanted to have inventory on launch day, they would simply move the launch day (or announce it) farther back so that they have inventory. They could have easily build up a supply, and then made the announcement that it launches in 2 weeks. BUT they wont, because then every one would get it that wanted it, and there would be no hype to keep people looking at and watching to see what comes next.

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23 minutes ago, Nuclear_Fermion said:

Yeah I've never understood why people need to have the product straight away, I get that it's nice to have the latest and greatest but it's not like the current/last generation isn't good. 

I see two reasons besides just wanting it now. Mining and scalping

▓ƆԀ▓ S▓₱▓Ɇ▓c▓s▓: i7 6ʇɥפᴉƎ00K (4.4ghz), Asus DeLuxe X99A II, GT҉X҉1҉0҉8҉0 Zotac Amp ExTrꍟꎭe),Si6F4Gb D???????r PlatinUm, EVGA G2 Sǝʌǝᘉ5ᙣᙍᖇᓎᙎᗅᖶt, Phanteks Enthoo Primo, 3TB WD Black, 500gb 850 Evo, H100iGeeTeeX, Windows 10, K70 R̸̢̡̭͍͕̱̭̟̩̀̀̃́̃͒̈́̈́͑̑́̆͘͜ͅG̶̦̬͊́B̸͈̝̖͗̈́, G502, HyperX Cloud 2s, Asus MX34. פN∩SW∀S 960 EVO

Just keeping this here as a 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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, DriftMan said:

Everybody is blaming manufacturers for the "low" supply, but nobody is blaming those who are upgrading every 6-12 months, who are a big part of the demand. There are people who have been waiting so long to get a new GPU, or to replace their really old systems, and I understand their frustration, but never forget those who are just buying every single new GPU that comes out for the sake of getting the latest tech.

<Removed by Moderation> The percentage of people who upgrade every single generation is a fraction of a fraction of the community.

Edited by TVwazhere
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Posted

delays work for me. By the time stocks are up i might actually be able to afford one and dying light 2 might be released.

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According to Kyle Bennett (former HardOCP owner/editor), who still has industry contacts:

 

Quote

AMD MBA cards will be in short supply up front. However, where you saw NV front-load almost all its cards, AMD is backloading. Once AIB cards hit, you will see 5 to 7 times the inventory released than what NV has shipped total in NA at this time. AMD will be heavily back-loaded into the channel. AMD is shipping ASIC BOM kits nearly daily to AIBs at this point and it will continue to happen throughout Q4. There will be a decent supply through Q4.

Now let me say this again as it is worth hearing. There is no way that when AMD was doing its projections for supply, that it could have even fathomed that NVIDIA would totally shit the bed on 3080/90 supply for the quarter, effectively abandoning the $500 to $1000 GPU TAM. NVIDIA has left such a gaping hole in the market that there is no way it can be filled currently. From my information and analysis, AMD projected to grow its portion of the TAM and will have inventory to do that. The sad fact is that NV simply abandoned its customer in that market and there is no possible way for AMD to fill the void.

TL;DR Keep calm, and mash F5

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Posted
2 hours ago, Lurick said:

<Removed by Moderation> The percentage of people who upgrade every single generation is a fraction of a fraction of the community.

But people haven't been upgrading every year because the RTX 2000 series wasn't even an upgrade for those using a GTX 1000 series card, particularly the GTX 1080 and 1080Ti. And with more people stuck at home with extra time for gaming as a hobby and extra money, or working from home needing a GPU demand for dedicated GPU's could definitely be higher.

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Posted
Just now, Blademaster91 said:

But people haven't been upgrading every year because the RTX 2000 series wasn't even an upgrade for those using a GTX 1000 series card, particularly the GTX 1080 and 1080Ti. And with more people stuck at home with extra time for gaming as a hobby and extra money, or working from home needing a GPU demand for dedicated GPU's could definitely be higher.

Yah, the quoted poster is making it out to be that everyone and their mother upgrades every 6 to 12 months when any new product drops which is bullcrap.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Lurick said:

<Removed by Moderation> The percentage of people who upgrade every single generation is a fraction of a fraction of the community.

not to mention of the fraction that do want to and actually have the funds for them.

 

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21 minutes ago, Lurick said:

Yah, the quoted poster is making it out to be that everyone and their mother upgrades every 6 to 12 months when any new product drops which is bullcrap.

Yeah the amount of people upgrading to every new card is probably a small fraction of the market.

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also keep in mind this is just the reference launch. unless amd kept all the chips for themselves there will be a bigger AIB launch later

now i expect that to be sold out also but i also expect stock to stabilize much sooner than with the rtx 3000 series because TSMC has better yields etc than samsung

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1 hour ago, SPARTAN VI said:

According to Kyle Bennett (former HardOCP owner/editor), who still has industry contacts:

 

TL;DR Keep calm, and mash F5

Yeah I posted this in another thread but I'll say it again here. Just because stock disappears quickly on day 1 doesn't mean there is no stock available (I mean what product doesn't disappear on day 1?). I remember getting the GTX 970 on like the first week it came out and I had to wait like 4 weeks before it even shipped. The thing that seems bad to me about Nvidia stock is that we're practically a full month into their launch and it seems like their stock situation hasn't improved in the slightest. So the real sign of whether AMD has decent supply or not will be the coming weeks. 

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Surprise surprise. I laugh at the people that thought it'd be better than Nvidias, though honestly I didn't think it'd actually be worse. Some retailers in Canada that got 3000 series stock didn't get any AMD GPUs, and they're not even taking back orders like they were for Nvidia...they have no idea when they're getting more. That's a real bad sign, and honestly, pretty disappointing coming from AMD, a company that only launches their reference series at launch. Technically they should have even more supply, as they have fewer board partners to worry about.

 

3 hours ago, porina said:

Planning for these launches were likely done pre-covid. What might have been a good decision then is not a good decision today. Making changes to plans is not trivial. Any change to do things faster will add costs, and the later the changes, the higher the cost. Then you're left with a difficult situation. If they increase pricing people get upset, and the other option is to eat the extra costs, which isn't appealing either.

 

We don't know the true limit that is preventing increased manufacturing rates to keep up with demand. If it is the GPU, it is not easy to order more, especially if the fab is already at capacity. Other components may also be in shortage. I'm guessing the limit is not the physical manufacturing or distribution side, those are more scalable.

I don't think physical manufacturing is that easy to ramp up. At least not as far as chip production is concerned. Most of the fabs don't have extra capacity, and it's not like you can just go build another fab, that takes years.

3 hours ago, eeeee1 said:

This is why its so funny to watch all the fanboys on launch day crying that they didn't get a new card.

patience is like common sense.

It's not only fanboys though. There's lots of people looking to buy cards this time of year, it's usually the best time to build a new PC regardless if you care about a particular brand or not.

2 hours ago, Lord Vile said:

Scalpers and bots are your answer. Just checked eBay for the 6800/XT and there's already 20 listings listed for 2x MSRP or more

Far from it.

Those are only created because of poor supply. Also, because of this, people that might have otherwise kept it just sell it because, why not? You're getting twice the money for something that you can just buy later on, like a normal person. The issue is supply, and those that are willing to pay the higher price.

2 hours ago, DavidKalinowski said:

I honestly believe a good part of the "shortage" is marketing. What better way to hype of a product then to not let people have it. It makes it exclusive and some how better. If they really wanted to have inventory on launch day, they would simply move the launch day (or announce it) farther back so that they have inventory. They could have easily build up a supply, and then made the announcement that it launches in 2 weeks. BUT they wont, because then every one would get it that wanted it, and there would be no hype to keep people looking at and watching to see what comes next.

That makes no sense. No company wants to have something that everyone wants, that they can't sell.

It's only exclusive if it has limited stock and that limited stock stays that way, which is not the case here.

2 hours ago, DriftMan said:

Everybody is blaming manufacturers for the "low" supply, but nobody is blaming those who are upgrading every 6-12 months, who are a big part of the demand. There are people who have been waiting so long to get a new GPU, or to replace their really old systems, and I understand their frustration, but never forget those who are just buying every single new GPU that comes out for the sake of getting the latest tech.

As has already been said, that's a very, very small percentage of the market. Look at the Steam Hardware survey. What's the top GPU? Nothing current. For 6 places.

It's not even from the 3000 series. It's a 2000 series entry level card. Those generally aren't people that upgrade every generation.

2 hours ago, SPARTAN VI said:

According to Kyle Bennett (former HardOCP owner/editor), who still has industry contacts:

 

TL;DR Keep calm, and mash F5

How did Nvidia abandon the market? They haven't. They just don't have supply. Just like AMD doesn't have supply. That statement really makes no sense at all.

Smells like someone has AMD stock and is trying to assert a narrative.

2 hours ago, DriftMan said:

you know what percentage of the customers are those? Because I don't, but I constantly read people purchasing advice saying their system is not even 1 year old

It's not hard to gather if you look into Steam Surveys and such.

Also, forums are a horrible way to gauge anything. It's a group of enthusiasts, and a very narrow one at that. Most of my friends game, most of them have pretty high end rigs, and I'm the only one that goes onto forums. Forum goers are a very small pool of an already small market.

1 hour ago, spartaman64 said:

also keep in mind this is just the reference launch. unless amd kept all the chips for themselves there will be a bigger AIB launch later

now i expect that to be sold out also but i also expect stock to stabilize much sooner than with the rtx 3000 series because TSMC has better yields etc than samsung

The yields for Samsung really aren't that bad though, and it would depend more on capacity than yields. IE if Samsung is putting out 1,000 chips and 300 are bad vs TSMC putting out 600 and 100 are bad. You're still getting more. TSMC supplies many other vendors, and I don't think Samsung does as much.

 

I've always hated how AMD only releases their reference cards first.

1 hour ago, TheBahrbarian said:

Yeah I posted this in another thread but I'll say it again here. Just because stock disappears quickly on day 1 doesn't mean there is no stock available (I mean what product doesn't disappear on day 1?). I remember getting the GTX 970 on like the first week it came out and I had to wait like 4 weeks before it even shipped. The thing that seems bad to me about Nvidia stock is that we're practically a full month into their launch and it seems like their stock situation hasn't improved in the slightest. So the real sign of whether AMD has decent supply or not will be the coming weeks. 

Sounds more like the vendor you bought it from was just selling stock they didn't actually have, hoping that they'd be able to get the stock and ship it before you asked for a refund. Linus commented on something similar to this when he worked at NCIX.

 

Most places will let you back order an Nvidia card, and you'll get it a few weeks later. This isn't true for AMD. That shows to a larger stock issue.

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CPU: Intel i3 4160 Cooler: Integrated Motherboard: Integrated

RAM: G.Skill RipJaws 16GB DDR3 Storage: Transcend MSA370 128GB GPU: Intel 4400 Graphics

PSU: Integrated Case: Shuttle XPC Slim

Monitor: LG 29WK500 Mouse: G.Skill MX780 Keyboard: G.Skill KM780 Cherry MX Red

 

Budget Rig 1 - Sold For $750 Profit

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CPU: Intel i5 7600k Cooler: CryOrig H7 Motherboard: MSI Z270 M5

RAM: Crucial LPX 16GB DDR4 Storage: Intel S3510 800GB GPU: Nvidia GTX 980

PSU: Corsair CX650M Case: EVGA DG73

Monitor: LG 29WK500 Mouse: G.Skill MX780 Keyboard: G.Skill KM780 Cherry MX Red

 

OG Gaming Rig - Gone

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CPU: Intel i5 4690k Cooler: Corsair H100i V2 Motherboard: MSI Z97i AC ITX

RAM: Crucial Ballistix 16GB DDR3 Storage: Kingston Fury 240GB GPU: Asus Strix GTX 970

PSU: Thermaltake TR2 Case: Phanteks Enthoo Evolv ITX

Monitor: Dell P2214H x2 Mouse: Logitech MX Master Keyboard: G.Skill KM780 Cherry MX Red

 

 

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Posted
2 hours ago, Blademaster91 said:

But people haven't been upgrading every year because the RTX 2000 series wasn't even an upgrade for those using a GTX 1000

i am still on gtx900

because gtx1000 was inflated by mining

rtx2000 was a shit show

rtx3000 was just legendaries to find one without inflated scapling price

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