Upgrade now, or wait for Zen 3?

[TennSeven]

So at the moment I have a Core i7-4771 CPU that's getting a little long in the tooth, and I recently set aside some money to upgrade to an AMD 3950x.  I do a lot of AI work on my computer, as well as 3D rendering, so the increased number of cores, AMD's price points, and performance reviews convinced me that it's the right time to switch back over from Intel.

 

I was going to head into the shop today to get the new parts, but this morning I saw a story on AMD's new 4000 series that everyone thinks will be dropping around the end of summer.  I cannot find a whole lot of information beyond that, like whether the new series should be around the same price points, and whether they will represent a significant increase in performance over the current series.  I am kind of waffling between just buying the 3950x like I was going to, maybe buying a 3900x or 3800x to save some money and making sure to get an X570 motherboard so I can grab a 4000 series later, and just waiting for the 4000 series to drop and hoping the performance increase comes in around the same price point and is worth the wait.

 

Can anyone who has been following this closer than I have chime in with your take on this, or any additional information that might be useful in deciding?

[Guest]

4th gen is probably going to be released in October which is pretty far away. Since Zen 3 won't change transistor size, the improvements will probably be closer to the difference between Zen and Zen+, which is ~10% gain in performance. I would get the 3rd gen now, there will always be something better. If you're doing productivity only I would look into thread ripper as well.

[boggy77]

get 3900x + x570 board

[5x5]

Considering your CPU is more than decent, wait. You'll be able to get the most advanced CPU uarch and also an affordable B550 board with PCIe 4.0

[5x5]

10 minutes ago, Darpyface said:

4th gen is probably going to be released in October which is pretty far away. Since Zen 3 won't change transistor size, the improvements will probably be closer to the difference between Zen and Zen+, which is ~10% gain in performance. I would get the 3rd gen now, there will always be something better. If you're doing productivity only I would look into thread ripper as well.

Difference is rumoured to be much greater than between Zen and Zen+ as this is not Zen2+ - this is a redesign with MUCH lower latency and on an optimized 7nm+ process.

[EmoChipmonk]

As someone in a kind of similar boat I would say WAIT we will finally have a jump in performance in the consumer market amd it would prob last a bit longer then zen 3.

[TieThatBinds]

I'd recommend waiting, specifically because Zen 3 will be the last processor on the AM4 socket, so you'd get the best bang for your buck out of it as well. At the moment, if the 4000 series mobile chips are any proof, its going to be a big performance boost, greater than the ~10% we saw between Zen and Zen+. There'll be a 10-15% boost to IPC alone if AMD is true to their word. The main boost in performance will be because they're going to be decreasing the amount of CCXs per CCD from 2 to 1, which allows for a big boost to memory performance, which Ryzen scales really well with. 

 

As a content creator and AI worker, Threadripper might be more what you're looking for, but 3950X is a good "budget" workstation choice, since Threadripper starts at around $1400. 

 

As choosing a motherboard, here's buildzoid's video. He'll go SUPER in depth on this, so you gotta have some patience, but there are time stamps in the comments to each board and what he thinks of them. Generally around the $300 range is the best bang for your buck, but there are extremely nice motherboards $500+ and he talks about it. 

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, TieThatBinds said:

if the 4000 series mobile chips are any proof

The 4000 series mobile chips use Zen 2, that's why they're such a big jump from the 3000 series mobile chips. We don't know how good Zen 3 will be, but it won't be as big of a jump from Zen+ to Zen 2 since the transistor size is staying the same.

[JoostinOnline]

Can you wait another year? If you can, that's what I'd recommend. I have a 4790k and that's what I'm doing as well. We're about to make the jump to DDR5 memory. It's much better to upgrade to a platform that's just starting compared to locking yourself into one that's just ending.

 

Additionally, prices are inflated right now due to the pandemic, so it's a bad time to buy.

[TieThatBinds]

32 minutes ago, Darpyface said:

 ...but it won't be as big of a jump from Zen+ to Zen 2 since the transistor size is staying the same.

Actually, due to EUV lithography, they're going to be able to add more transistors to the processor. not by much mind you, but they will not be staying the same, at least on the higher end. Mid to lower end, that's a possibility, but we'll see. 

[Guest]

42 minutes ago, JoostinOnline said:

We're about to make the jump to DDR5 memory

DDR5 is going be 5th Gen ryzen. That'll be in 2 years, waiting that long for an upgrade isn't realistic for somebody who wants a new computer now. And who is going from a quad core to a 16 core CPU.

[JoostinOnline]

34 minutes ago, Darpyface said:

DDR5 is going be 5th Gen ryzen. That'll be in 2 years, waiting that long for an upgrade isn't realistic for somebody who wants a new computer now. And who is going from a quad core to a 16 core CPU.

A year and a half, but I meant a year more.  I'm throwing out the possibility of not upgrading to a dead-end platform.

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, JoostinOnline said:

A year and a half

A year and a half is super long to wait for an upgrade, especially because OP has the needs of a 16 core but only has a 4 core.

[JoostinOnline]

1 minute ago, Darpyface said:

A year and a half is super long to wait for an upgrade, especially because OP has the needs of a 16 core but only has a 4 core.

1. I know it's a long time, you don't need to keep saying that.
2. If he's getting by with a 4 core, he doesn't NEED a 16 core.  Besides, the 4770 is still a decent CPU.  I've got a very similar one and, while I would like an upgrade, it's still pretty good.
3. Arguing over this is entirely pointless.  This forum is is for providing suggestions.  Mine doesn't invalidate yours, nor the other way around.  The OP has options.

[RichardCheung]

Buy earily to enjoy , wait will cheap

[TennSeven]

Thank you, everyone, for your advice and insights! I still have a bit to think about, but you were all a big help!

[spydoindian]

On 5/12/2020 at 10:57 AM, TennSeven said:

Thank you, everyone, for your advice and insights! I still have a bit to think about, but you were all a big help!

 

On 5/11/2020 at 7:07 PM, JoostinOnline said:

1. I know it's a long time, you don't need to keep saying that.
2. If he's getting by with a 4 core, he doesn't NEED a 16 core.  Besides, the 4770 is still a decent CPU.  I've got a very similar one and, while I would like an upgrade, it's still pretty good.
3. Arguing over this is entirely pointless.  This forum is is for providing suggestions.  Mine doesn't invalidate yours, nor the other way around.  The OP has options.

 

On 5/11/2020 at 6:48 PM, JoostinOnline said:

A year and a half, but I meant a year more.  I'm throwing out the possibility of not upgrading to a dead-end platform.

 

My point of view :- 

DDR4 and PCIe 3 are definitely not  dead end platforms,, they will be good for few years to come, so its not a "bottleneck" situation for buying dd4 or pcie3 

 

Additionally there will always be something better and new, if if in future there is Zen4 + AM5 system,  AMD  zen5 will be even better and zen 6 will be even better and so on and so on.

 

i personally would try to go close to 25 to 30% cpu single core performance difference before upgrade..... that's roughly about skipping 1 or may be 2 intel generations in the past,,, like going 7th to -->  9th or even 10th gen.... and matching up to the bugdet and new motherboard..... 

 

this is because i am a casual gamer,, so 5-10% difference would not really help me ... and i do not have any heavy multicore work

 

Please note :-

for my personal PC, Currently i am deciding to upgrade from 7700 non-K to 10600K/ 3700X ,,, bugdet around 450- 500 ... AMD 4000 launch has confused me as well ...