COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING

[Rocketdog2112]

6 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

thanks for the laughs.

Same here...

[Rocketdog2112]

7 minutes ago, dalekphalm said:

Partly because that stat is only meaningful when compared with other comparable stats.

 

For example: in 2018, 655,381 people died of heart disease.

 

Population of the US in 2018: 327.2 million.

 

Therefore 0.2% of people in the US died from heart disease.

 

However, that doesn't tell us, for example, how deadly heart disease is (if you develop it, what are your chances of survival). It also doesn't give us any comparison against other issues.

 

FYI before you say "LOOK! COVID IS LESS DANGEROUS THAN HEART DISEASE!", Heart disease is literally the number one cause of death in the US, so yeah.

I used CDC supplied covid related death numbers. To compare those numbers with other causes of death is irrelevant and a perfect example of deflection. Ask just about anyone on the street nowadays what the current number one cause of death is and I guarantee you that they will spout covid.

[WkdPaul]

1 hour ago, Rocketdog2112 said:

I used CDC supplied covid related death numbers.

no, you MISUSED them.

 

Again, you count contagious illness vs the infected, not the total population.

 

If you want to understand the CDC numbers better, there are good ressources out there, I suggest reading and researching how to interpret those numbers, because you're 100% doing it wrong.

 

 

[piratemonkey]

In regards to Canada and us getting the vaccine, is it the government's fault (the PM's, cabinet ministers, x agency/organization etc.) that we're getting not a ton of doses? I heard an MP was tearing into Trudeau about it, but I don't know if that has any basis. Is it just bad luck, cuz we don't have any bio manufacturing and we're not as important as America (~330 million people> 38 million people)? 

Spoiler

I don't think I'm breaking the rules. No partisanship regardless.

 

[Rocketdog2112]

17 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

no, you MISUSED them.

 

Again, you count contagious illness vs the infected, not the total population.

 

If you want to understand the CDC numbers better, there are good ressources out there, I suggest reading and researching how to interpret those numbers, because you're 100% doing it wrong.

 

 

Wrong again.... https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days

You are just trying to twist the numbers to fit your agenda.

[Blade of Grass]

40 minutes ago, Rocketdog2112 said:

Wrong again.... https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days

You are just trying to twist the numbers to fit your agenda.

WKD is correct. All you calculated was the percentage of the whole US population that has already died to COVID, at apparently 0.08% (I haven't done the math, so I trust you on this one). This is different from the mortality rate of COVID, which is the number of people who died from COVID divided by the number of people who got COVID.

 

The first number is definitely a valid data point to look at, but it doesn't really tell you anything meaningful about the virus beyond the wake it's left so far. The second one tells you approximately the chance that you'll die if you contract the virus. That's why wkd says you are misusing the numbers, because the calculation you did does not imply what you says it does (that the virus is less harmful than the media makes it out to be). It's already killed between 5 and 20 times the people the flu normally kills per year in the US, and the virus hasn't even been spreading in the community for a year, nevertheless ignoring the potential long-term side effects that COVID has had on people that the flu does not. 

 

Think of it in the extreme situation, let's say there's a virus with 100% mortality rate, but only 10 people have gotten it, and only 5 of those people have died so far. What ratio seems the most relevant? That it's killed 5 in ~300M, or that it's killed 5 in 10 people? Obviously the 5 in 10 people statistic, because the other 300M odd people are out-of-band and contribute nothing to any meaningful analysis. 

 

And let's be clear, there's no conspiracy about the media trying to scare you. Every day nearly a 9/11 worth of deaths occurs in America due to the virus, and American is handling it nearly the worst out of any country in the world. The US gets more cases daily than China has had in total. The US has over 21% of the entire worlds COVID cases despite not even having 5% of the world population. 

[dalekphalm]

43 minutes ago, piratemonkey said:

In regards to Canada and us getting the vaccine, is it the government's fault (the PM's, cabinet ministers, x agency/organization etc.) that we're getting not a ton of doses? I heard an MP was tearing into Trudeau about it, but I don't know if that has any basis. Is it just bad luck, cuz we don't have any bio manufacturing and we're not as important as America (~330 million people> 38 million people)? 

  Hide contents

I don't think I'm breaking the rules. No partisanship regardless.

 

It’s not really anyone’s fault. Consider that these companies can only manufacture so much at first, and they have contracts with likely dozens of countries by now. 
 

Most of those deals are likely based on the population of the country, in terms of the initial deliveries. 
 

Obviously America is gonna get more doses in their initial batch over Canada, since they have 10x people. 
 

In addition to that, having vaccine manufacturing domestically can increase how much of that vaccine you can get your hands on.

[piratemonkey]

8 minutes ago, dalekphalm said:

It’s not really anyone’s fault. Consider that these companies can only manufacture so much at first, and they have contracts with likely dozens of countries by now. 
 

Most of those deals are likely based on the population of the country, in terms of the initial deliveries. 
 

Obviously America is gonna get more doses in their initial batch over Canada, since they have 10x people. 
 

In addition to that, having vaccine manufacturing domestically can increase how much of that vaccine you can get your hands on.

That's what I thought. It's what others said earlier in the thread (possibly you). Well, I guess we hunker down for a few more months

[Rocketdog2112]

23 minutes ago, Blade of Grass said:

WKD is correct. All you calculated was the percentage of the whole US population that has already died to COVID, at apparently 0.08% (I haven't done the math, so I trust you on this one). This is different from the mortality rate of COVID, which is the number of people who died from COVID divided by the number of people who got COVID.

 

The first number is definitely a valid data point to look at, but it doesn't really tell you anything meaningful about the virus beyond the wake it's left so far. The second one tells you approximately the chance that you'll die if you contract the virus. That's why wkd says you are misusing the numbers, because the calculation you did does not imply what you says it does (that the virus is less harmful than the media makes it out to be). It's already killed between 5 and 20 times the people the flu normally kills per year, and the virus hasn't even been spreading in the community for a year, never the less ignoring the potential long-term side effects that COVID has had on people that the flu does not. 

 

Think of it in the extreme situation, let's say there's a virus with 100% mortality rate, but only 10 people have gotten it, and so far only 5 people have died so far. What ratio seems the most relevant? That it's killed 5 in ~300M, or that it's killed 5 in 10 people? Obviously the 5 in 10 people statistic, because the other 300M odd people are out-of-band and contribute nothing to any meaningful analysis. 

 

And let's be clear, there's no conspiracy about the media trying to scare you. Every day nearly a 9/11 worth of deaths occurs in America due to the virus, and American is handling it nearly the worst out of any country in the world. The US gets more cases daily than China has had in total. The US has over 21% of the entire worlds COVID cases despite not even having 5% of the world population. 

The wake it has left behind is my point and usually the focus of the general public. Trying to foresee and predict future deaths is incomprehensible because nobody seems to have a handle on how it affects every person. The survival rate is evidently quite high. I know several who have had it recovered completely. The problem is the average person hears 250,000+ people have died and that's all they and the news focuses on. The fact that there are over 300 million otherwise non dying people here in the States is irrelevant to them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Rocketdog2112]

4 hours ago, dalekphalm said:

Partly because that stat is only meaningful when compared with other comparable stats.

 

For example: in 2018, 655,381 people died of heart disease.

 

Population of the US in 2018: 327.2 million.

 

Therefore 0.2% of people in the US died from heart disease.

 

However, that doesn't tell us, for example, how deadly heart disease is (if you develop it, what are your chances of survival). It also doesn't give us any comparison against other issues.

 

FYI before you say "LOOK! COVID IS LESS DANGEROUS THAN HEART DISEASE!", Heart disease is literally the number one cause of death in the US, so yeah.

I never stated that covid or any other disease was any deadlier than another. I SIMPLY stated that only 0.08% of the U.S. population has died from either the corona or corona related illness. Now if people want to look at the 0.08% and think "That's not really that bad", or look at 268,763 deaths and freak the hell out.... so be it.

[Commodus]

10 minutes ago, Rocketdog2112 said:

I never stated that covid or any other disease was any deadlier than another. I SIMPLY stated that only 0.08% of the U.S. population has died from either the corona or corona related illness. Now if people want to look at the 0.08% and think "That's not really that bad", or look at 268,763 deaths and freak the hell out.... so be it.

A couple of problems on top of what's been discussed, though.

 

First: that's the mortality rate for the total population with lockdowns and other measures in place. Remember how an estimate had 2.2 million Americans dying of COVID-19 if there were no efforts made to curb the spread? That would lead to a much higher death rate for the broader population, so it's clearly a more lethal disease than you seem ready to admit.

 

Also consider that the pandemic isn't over yet, and probably won't be for several months or more. That 0.08% is the figure for right now... unfortunately, it'll likely be significantly higher by the time all is said and done.

 

And more importantly, the outcomes aren't limited to "dead" or "perfectly recovered." Some people suffer long-term and possibly permanent lung, heart and neurological damage. Do you want to lose so much lung capacity that you wheeze walking to your car?  Do you want heart scarring that could increase the risk of heart disease a couple of decades later? I didn't think so. I'm not all that worried I'm going to die directly from COVID-19; I'm worried that it'll ruin my quality of life or shorten my lifespan. And even if I pull through, I don't want anything to happen to my partner.

 

[Nowak]

https://www.wcvb.com/article/massachusetts-covid-19-cornonavirus-numbers-daily-update-december-3-2020/34862743

 

And governor Baker insists on there not being another lockdown, even as we record an entirely new high. Madness.

[Donut417]

7 minutes ago, Nowak said:

https://www.wcvb.com/article/massachusetts-covid-19-cornonavirus-numbers-daily-update-december-3-2020/34862743

 

And governor Baker insists on there not being another lockdown, even as we record an entirely new high. Madness.

Our governor is fighting hard to try to reduce numbers. But the Covid deniers are fighting her every step of the way. There are restaurants who I guess are going to defy the order against dine in. The governors executive orders were over turns by the Michigan supreme court. So now, all the restrictions are in place due to the State Health Department. I hope if the restaurants do decide to defy the order that the country Health departments sent inspectors out and shut them down. The state should also pull their business license. 

[Blade of Grass]

5 minutes ago, Donut417 said:

Our governor is fighting hard to try to reduce numbers. But the Covid deniers are fighting her every step of the way. There are restaurants who I guess are going to defy the order against dine in. The governors executive orders were over turns by the Michigan supreme court. So now, all the restrictions are in place due to the State Health Department. I hope if the restaurants do decide to defy the order that the country Health departments sent inspectors out and shut them down. The state should also pull their business license. 

Happened in Toronto recently, some dunce with a BBQ joint funded by daddy's money (who didn't have a business license in the first place) got arrested for it after he was ordered to shutdown. 

[PhantomJaguarr]

Like a broken record. When people don't wear their masks.

 

Quote

The new restrictions will last for at least three weeks, strictly limit store capacity and allow restaurants to serve only takeout or delivery. The governor also said people should temporarily call off all nonessential travel.

 

“If we don’t act now our hospital system will be overwhelmed,” Mr. Newsom said. “If we don’t act now we’ll continue to see our death rate climb.”

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/03/us/california-stay-at-home-order.html

[Andreas Lilja]

2000 new cases in Quebec, once again leading Canada. 

[Nowak]

Oh, so that's why cases suddenly shot up from 1000-something a day to 4000 - 6000 a day

 

https://www.wcvb.com/article/massachusetts-state-police-covid-19-infections-maskless-meeting-headquarters/34878695

 

Another statie scandal!

[Commodus]

Sweden is ending its hands-off approach to COVID-19 after seeing a surge in cases that has led to a death rate as bad as in the US.

 

In other words: you can tell reality deniers who shout "but but look at Sweden!" to shove it. The only way to keep a lid on the new coronavirus in the short term is to make people avoid contact. And even if the potential of getting a life-ruining disease isn't enough of a deterrent, you don't want hospitals to be overwhelmed to the point where they're cancelling or delaying vital care for other people.

 

It's also notable that Sweden's economy took a similar dip to that of countries that instituted lockdowns. Turns out that people don't want to risk their health just to go to a restaurant or theatre, whether or not measures are voluntary. All that voluntary approach does is get more people sick.

[Rocketdog2112]

Interesting read taken from another source.... 

 

"We have heard much this year about the “case fatality rate” of COVID. In early March, the case fatality rate in the U.S. was roughly three percent—nearly three out of every hundred people who were identified as “cases” of COVID in early March died from it. Compare that to today, when the fatality rate of COVID is known to be less than one half of one percent.
In other words, when the World Health Organization said back in early March that three percent of people who get COVID die from it, they were wrong by at least one order of magnitude. The COVID fatality rate is much closer to 0.2 or 0.3 percent. The reason for the highly inaccurate early estimates is simple: in early March, we were not identifying most of the people who had been infected by COVID.

Lockdowns
The widespread lockdowns that have been adopted in response to COVID are unprecedented—lockdowns have never before been tried as a method of disease control. Nor were these lockdowns part of the original plan. The initial rationale for lockdowns was that slowing the spread of the disease would prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. It became clear before long that this was not a worry: in the U.S. and in most of the world, hospitals were never at risk of being overwhelmed. Yet the lockdowns were kept in place, and this is turning out to have deadly effects.
Those who dare to talk about the tremendous economic harms that have followed from the lockdowns are accused of heartlessness. Economic considerations are nothing compared to saving lives, they are told. So I’m not going to talk about the economic effects—I’m going to talk about the deadly effects on health, beginning with the fact that the U.N. has estimated that 130 million additional people will starve this year as a result of the economic damage resulting from the lockdowns.
In the last 20 years we’ve lifted one billion people worldwide out of poverty. This year we are reversing that progress to the extent—it bears repeating—that an estimated 130 million more people will starve.
Another result of the lockdowns is that people stopped bringing their children in for immunizations against diseases like diphtheria, pertussis (whooping cough), and polio, because they had been led to fear COVID more than they feared these more deadly diseases. This wasn’t only true in the U.S. Eighty million children worldwide are now at risk of these diseases. We had made substantial progress in slowing them down, but now they are going to come back."

[IkeaGnome]

Meanwhile Alaska is getting close to breaking 1000 new cases a day. My local community just turned down another mask mandate. 

[Egg-Roll]

On 12/3/2020 at 7:39 PM, Blade of Grass said:

Happened in Toronto recently, some dunce with a BBQ joint funded by daddy's money (who didn't have a business license in the first place) got arrested for it after he was ordered to shutdown. 

I hope they throw him in jail, (he is facing criminal charges) along with maximum fines.

 

On 12/3/2020 at 5:11 PM, Rocketdog2112 said:

I never stated that covid or any other disease was any deadlier than another. I SIMPLY stated that only 0.08% of the U.S. population has died from either the corona or corona related illness. Now if people want to look at the 0.08% and think "That's not really that bad", or look at 268,763 deaths and freak the hell out.... so be it.

 

4 hours ago, Rocketdog2112 said:

In other words, when the World Health Organization said back in early March that three percent of people who get COVID die from it, they were wrong by at least one order of magnitude. The COVID fatality rate is much closer to 0.2 or 0.3 percent. The reason for the highly inaccurate early estimates is simple: in early March, we were not identifying most of the people who had been infected by COVID.

Next to the fact you are clearly attempting to spread mishandled information and handing it out as truth, those numbers are way off.

 

Luckily for me the CDC has me covered so I don't have to do much work.

Total Cases USA: 14,760,000 (all rounded up/down to near 1000, covid numbers for the USA are all over the place, so I used the repeated lowest numbers for over all and death rates calculations)

All ages: 282,000/14,749,000 = 1.957%

All ages(recovered): 282,000/8,854,000=3.26%

The reason you do recovered is because the active still can die. Now assuming the recovered don't include those who have died the true number would be 3.09% mortality average.

 

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fcases-in-us.html#demographics

 

Now when you click the link you'll see that the counts are off by about 80,000 deaths and about 4 million cases, I'm guessing it's not something many people care about, yet many are still spreading wrong information on.

 

If you don't feel like clicking it, when the case count and death rates where at 10 million V 200K the following was true for the mortality rates by age: (I only added the 0-17 number up everything else is C&P from their chart)

0-17: 0.014%

18-29: 0.5%

30-39: 1.3%

40-49: 3%

50-64: 14.8%

65-74: 20.8%

75-84: 27%

85+: 32.5%

Note: I have no idea who thought it was a good idea to do 50-64 but they did... Beyond that it seems every 10 years your risk doubles till you hit 65 then it increases between 5-10% depending on age.

 

Now one shouldn't go and start making bold claims in saying the US only has a 0.08% death rate because you know 282,000/328,000,000 is that number. That isn't how deaths are calculated unless it is a year end total of all deaths in the country (at which time COVID would become a % within that death count and not against the total population) or it is war and more specifically on the land the country is on like when the US bombed Japan back in WWII. Seeing as this isn't war and the USA isn't getting bombed but a virus, we go based on case counts, and for the US the current case to death ratio has 2 numbers total cases to deaths or the recovered vs those less fortunate, neither of which are remotely close to your number, unless of course you are a minor that is.

 

Equally based on the CDCs chart it looks like those with older kids are more likely to catch the virus as the age group of those who had kids around 25-35 with now teens have the highest case counts at the time next to said kids. (40-64)

[Rocketdog2112]

Believe ( or don't believe) what you want. You have your information, and I have mine.

[Letgomyleghoe]

I honestly can't wait to get the rovid vaccine, 

 

 

1. If it's not harmful i can say "fuck you I told you so"

2. even if it is harmful, I'll get compensated (I'm kinda broke rn it would be nice) or if I die from it, whatever, at least it's me and not someone younger, or someone with a family

3. even if it takes till i'm 65 to finally give me cancer or kill me, that gives me a reason to get doctor assisted suicide.

[Sarra]

2 minutes ago, Letgomyleghoe said:

I honestly can't wait to get the rovid vaccine, 

 

 

1. If it's not harmful i can say "fuck you I told you so"

2. even if it is harmful, I'll get compensated (I'm kinda broke rn it would be nice) or if I die from it, whatever, at least it's me and not someone younger, or someone with a family

3. even if it takes till i'm 65 to finally give me cancer or kill me, that gives me a reason to get doctor assisted suicide.

Whoa. This post is bright sunshine and cuddles...

 

I don't even know what to say to #2. Something in me thinks that, if you get sick from it, whichever company made the vaccine you took will find a way to not 'pay out' anything to you...

 

And not even gonna touch #3.

[Egg-Roll]

20 minutes ago, Rocketdog2112 said:

Believe ( or don't believe) what you want. You have your information, and I have mine.

Your information is technically correct, however lets for one second lets believe yours is real, as in that is how the US is currently. There is roughly 7.8 billion people on this tiny insignificant blue marble we call home and there's only 67 million cases, who cares about deaths when you only have a 0.86% chance of actually getting the virus.

 

So why don't we all just go outside hug thy neighbor and why not give them a little kiss too?

_{Warning I'm not responsible if you go and do this then get punched in the face.}

 

I would hate to hear about your thoughts about the other global pandemic we are in as well, if you think 0.08% is the proper way to count this pandemic.