Why is Intel still green even after AMD has smacked them?????

[Percy-da-great]

About 4 months ago Linus stated in one of his videos that he "NEEDED to invest in AMD" based on his prediction of how good AMD's Ryzen 3rd generation was shaping up to be compared to Intel. He also went on to mention that it appeared that Intel had no backup insight for the next couple of years.(https://youtu.be/v7hofCnniJE)

 

Since then it appears he was right in saying that Ryzen 3 would slay Intel. However, to my inexperienced eye it seems AMD hasn't moved that much from now compared to the end of May and computex.

 

 

Obviously I see that it skyrocketed up for a bit, but then it has since fallen even after Ryzen 3s great performance. So first off does anyone know what caused AMD to fall back down?

And then secondly, Intel stock hasn't seem to take to much of a hit since computex. Is the drop of Intel in April the result of Ryzen? or why hasn't Intel taken a bigger hit in the markets.

 

 

 

 

Finally, with the release of the 9350X coming up sometime, is AMD still a good buy?

 

 

 

I'm not investing I just like to keep up with the stock market.

 

[dizmo]

There's way more to a company than just product launches of a single class.

Look at the bigger picture.

 

Revenue?

Intel made about $71 billion last year.

AMD? $7 billion.

 

If we're talking equity?

Intel: $74.5 billion.

AMD: $1.2 billion.

 

Which do you think is the stronger company?

 

Welcome to the forum.

[MoonSpot]

AMD going from 2 dollars a share to 30 is a big move.  Your time window is too small.  Remember when it comes to money, you'll always be the last one to be told whats happening.

[Arika]

spoken like somebody who has no idea how stocks work

[leadeater]

Moved to General Discussion

[Bacon soup]

Look at annual trends. We are entering a new financial quarter. Markets have four seasons just like the weather.

[Fnige]

31 minutes ago, Bacon soup said:

Look at annual trends. We are entering a new financial quarter. Markets have four seasons just like the weather.

sure, thought winter left a long time ago DUE TO THOSE FOSSIL FUEL/GAS COMPANIES GAWD DAM IT

[LogicalDrm]

There's multiple things to look at. First of all, I see that recent good reception of AMD launches has had its effect. You can clearly see the drop of stock pricing around AMDs launch date. (idk if you choose colors, but I recommend using same color when looking at graphs, makes it easier). Another thing is fluctuations during your 6mo time frame. With Intel it's $15, AMD at $9. If we look at only this time period, AMD seems better long-term investment. Less fluctuations with constant increase. Intel has better pay off if you are looking for profits from trading. As it raises quickly and you can then sell at comfortable peak.

 

If you are in to tech business side, you should already know that consumer-grade parts aren't the trendsetting part of the business. Large servers, mobile/laptop/OEM and such actually make or break the company. Those are reason why AMD stayed in business while their enthusiast hardware was lacking. Or why IBM was still a thing up until they sold majority of the assets to Lenovo.

 

[RoseLuck462]

Things aren't gonna change that rapidly overnight.

 

Sure AMD is kicking ass with Ryzen right now, but what matters is consistency. 

[LAwLz]

3 hours ago, Percy-da-great said:

About 4 months ago Linus stated in one of his videos that he "NEEDED to invest in AMD" based on his prediction of how good AMD's Ryzen 3rd generation was shaping up to be compared to Intel. He also went on to mention that it appeared that Intel had no backup insight for the next couple of years.

Remember, Linus is a Youtube/Facebook influence, not a financial advisor or stockbroker.

I always recommend people take what Linus says with a massive amount of salt, but in this case I'd say it's best to just not listen at all. The stock market isn't as simple as "release a good product and your stock increases".

[RasmusDC]

there is more than just desktop chips.. the whole internet of things, other types of hardware like NIC´s and other elements..

 

And they are still a part of most laptops... as there mobile platform is still strong... this is just a small blip and ... AMD is still long from the strongest gamer chip manufacturer..

[Donut417]

On 9/30/2019 at 10:58 PM, Percy-da-great said:

hy hasn't Intel taken a bigger hit in the marke

You think CPU's are the only thing Intel produces? You know they are a large supplier of Nand flash memory and they also produce networking chipsets. Hell my cable modem has one of the older Intel Puma 4 or 5 chips in it. Intel has deversified their business so they wont nessarily get taken out. Now Intel intends to get in to GPU's. So I dont think your going to see a major drop, though they will have to become more compeditive. 

[Aperture9999999]

Intel has been on top of the market for over a decade, and there is no way any company could remove them in such a short span of time.

[Avus]

Because Intel CPU are stupidly overpriced for DECADES. Intel still cornered the server CPU market which is their real MEAT. (example: Intel Itanium CPU easily start over $3500US) And they still cornered the laptop and desktop markets.

 

Business/office computers: Have you ever seen non Intel CPU machine?

Laptop: Do you still have difficulty to find an AMD laptop that you really want?

Home computer: just look at Steam stats

https://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/processormfg/

 

Why do you think Intel can easily sell a CPU under $1000US when the last gen of it sold for $2000US?! Do you think Intel will sell them at loss? No way!!

 

You really think just a couple years of AMD success can flip Intel??

Intel = Sun, AMD = Earth

[masethekiller]

Good quality products does not mean a well functioning corporation and even then a well functioning corporation does not mean a good stock price. 

 

These are all actually three different catergories.  AMD now has a great CPU , the Ryzen that rivals Intel in price and performance for the consumer market. This has only been for two years, Intel still has the market share for consumer cpus.  They also dominate in enterprise cpus.  I would assume they are also the leader in mobile cpus.  So having a great product and at that, one great product doesn't mean your going to be a great performing company.

 

In terms of performance, AMD has done poorly for a long time.  They even have come close to bankruptcy at times.  They are doing -relatively- better, they are going to make around 6 billion this year in revenue, Intel made 70 billion.   That's more than 10 times the revenue.  AMD made around 116 million in profit this year, Intel made close to 20 billion. 100 times the net income.  

In terms of the stock metric, not long ago AMD was an undervalued stock, buying before Ryzen came out it would be a great deal.  The price to earnings on this stock is 164!! That's insane, that is extremely high and far above the industry average.  Unless AMD pulls off amazing results, its stock price is going to crash eventually. (although rarely companies have sustained very high p/e like Netflix and Amazon) Compare this to the price of Intel which is around the industry average p/e ratio of 12.10 

 

The other advantage vis a vis company to company, is Intel's huge revenue, research and development, factories, clout,etc.  So even if AMD has a great product, Intel simply has a far greater capacity.  Intel if it was allowed they could easily buy out Amd and still be a filthy rich company. 

 

My point is you can understand tech well, you can understand what is a good product that doesn't necessarily translate into being able to assses company performance or their stock.  So from my experience ( I work in finance and have made 25-30 percent returns in my portfolio) this is why AMD has not 'smacked' intel and why Linus(although I like his show) is wrong here. 

[Chett_Manly]

From a few weeks back. 

Quote

Intel sees 14nm chip supply fall short of demand again

https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20190924PD203.html

 

AMD took the retail desktop market from them almost completely, Intel still cannot meet DEMAND for 14nm. AMD has winning designs, and they took my business from Intel this year, but at the same time it appears Intel's largest problem is not being able to make as many processors as people want to buy.

[BigRom]

Intel still dominates the enterprise market, losing a chunk of the consumer desktop market share to AMD hurts but won't unduly affect Intel in the grand scheme of things because they are still so entrenched in enterprise-grade hardware which are their main money-maker

 

The sheer difference in revenue speaks for itself, and Intel's total assets are almost 4 times more than AMD's entire company is worth. 

[williamcll]

The average computer user will not able to notice the advantages an AMD chip may have over Intel, and will buy something they are familiar with.

[wasab]

Because profits and revenues are not a zero sum game. Intel can be earning greater profits year on year even if their market share are tanking. Why? Because people are either spending more money or buying more of their products in raw numbers. 

 

Plus, Intel have other business besides just CPUs. 

[robidemon]

intel is still whats mostly usesd in computer to be honest 

[Mooshi]

The stock market couldn't care less what a bunch of nerds think regarding CPU generations. All investors care about is how healthy the company is doing and what are the profit margins.

[Weedflu]

I should have seen this coming, i should have bought Amd stock way back, it all makes sense now.