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Nvidia misses Revenue estimate - Huang says AMD to blame

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BREAKING NEWS: Compeition causes company to lose market share. CEO can’t explain.

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5 hours ago, Tech Enthusiast said:

Also error margin does not simply get added, unless you only have two options to pick from.

That literally is how it works, I think you just did percentage of a percentage. Your margin of error tells you how different the result could be that you are looking at. If you've ever lived in a country that has an MMP government and it's around election time and they give an update where they project each party to fall when it comes to election day and they say X party has 6% of the vote then say the margin of error for the poll is 3.5% (common to be around here) then that 6% projection starts to become rather irrelevant (here you need more than 5% of the vote to get a seat in parliament). The other parties with projections around 12%-30% can all sit pretty safe as the error wouldn't put them in danger of not getting a seat.

 

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There are close to 200 million adult U.S. residents. For comparison, let’s say you have a giant jar of 200 million jelly beans. The president has commissioned you to find out how many jelly beans are red, how many are purple, and how many are some other color. Since you have limited funds and time, you opt against counting and sorting all 200 million jelly beans. Instead you randomly select 500 jelly beans of which 30% are red, 10% are purple and 60% are some other color.

 

Looking at the matrix below, you find that with a sample of 500 jelly beans you can report that 30 percent of the jelly beans in the jar are red, +/- 4%. To further elaborate, you can say, with 95% confidence red jelly beans make up 30%, {+/- 4% or the range of 26-34%} of the beans in the jar. Likewise you can report that purple jelly beans make up 10% {+/- 3% or the range of 7-13%} of the beans in the jar.

https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/support/polling-fundamentals-total-survey-error/

 

Only difference is we're talking GPUs not political parties or jelly beans but conducting surveys to predict outcomes is well established, being GPUs doesn't change anything.

 

5 hours ago, Tech Enthusiast said:

Basically the steam survey is accurate, statistically speaking.

I would agree only with the most highly represented products well above the margin of error, everything else is no better than guessing a number.

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7 hours ago, Curufinwe_wins said:

Likely almost all mobile gpus. Maxwell is still available in the market for laptops, and so are the real bottom barrel things like the 1030/730. Also AMDs mobile GPUs.

I haven't actually tried to list down as many as I can but I'd still think 23 is a hard ask to come up with, laptops do sell very well though and the most common mobile GPUs I would expect to be above the RX 580. I do wonder though, are they treating things like GTX 1060 and mobile/max-q GTX 1060 as different GPUs or combined in to his statement about it being the best selling GPU? I would think it's a lot easier to make that list of 23 if you can list out 1060, mobile 1060, 1070, mobile 1070 etc etc.

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1 hour ago, leadeater said:

I haven't actually tried to list down as many as I can but I'd still think 23 is a hard ask to come up with, laptops do sell very well though and the most common mobile GPUs I would expect to be above the RX 580. I do wonder though, are they treating things like GTX 1060 and mobile/max-q GTX 1060 as different GPUs or combined in to his statement about it being the best selling GPU? I would think it's a lot easier to make that list of 23 if you can list out 1060, mobile 1060, 1070, mobile 1070 etc etc.

Possibly. Not sure.

 

My quick guess list would be: 570, 560, 550X, 550, 540, 970M, 960M, 950M, 940M, MX150, 1060, 1070, 1070ti, 1080, 1080ti, 1050, 1050ti, 1030, 730, 1050ti, 1050, 750ti, 750, 950. 

 

That's 24 GPUs, and all of them are still not terribly hard to find on the market today new or in OEM PCs (compared to how hard it was to get a 580). Desktop maxwell and the 970m are arguably the most out of place of all of these, and if they counted splitting the lineups it is extremely easy to see how most others would sell more.

 

Just a guess though.

 

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50 minutes ago, Curufinwe_wins said:

My quick guess list would be: 570, 560, 550X, 550, 540, 970M, 960M, 950M, 940M, MX150, 1060, 1070, 1070ti, 1080, 1080ti, 1050, 1050ti, 1030, 730, 1050ti, 1050, 750ti, 750, 950. 

 

That's 24 GPUs, and all of them are still not terribly hard to find on the market today new or in OEM PCs (compared to how hard it was to get a 580). Desktop maxwell and the 970m are arguably the most out of place of all of these, and if they counted splitting the lineups it is extremely easy to see how most others would sell more.

Yep I'd agree with your list, the 540 might be a bit so so (only needed 23 anyway) since I haven't really seen that as an option much but I don't go looking at low end options anyway. I could be missing some wide selling OEM PC/laptop or something that has it as base spec but I'd think Intel iGPU is more common base option than any low end GPU would be.

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12 hours ago, S w a t s o n said:

What? You literally can't apply your argument to him and me and have it make sense. Either evidence matters or it doesnt make up your mind.

huh?  apply what?  answer the question.  Did you call Huddy a liar when he made claims about Gsync? 

 

You claim you are calling Huang a liar because there is no evidence to support his claims,  so by your standards of what constitutes a liar, do you call AMD liars becasue they could't provide evidence regarding their claims of nvidia GPP?

 

Grammar and spelling is not indicative of intelligence/knowledge.  Not having the same opinion does not always mean lack of understanding.  

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27 minutes ago, mr moose said:

huh?  apply what?  answer the question.  Did you call Huddy a liar when he made claims about Gsync? 

 

You claim you are calling Huang a liar because there is no evidence to support his claims,  so by your standards of what constitutes a liar, do you call AMD liars becasue they could't provide evidence regarding their claims of nvidia GPP?

 

AMD didnt come out and make a statement, they provided evidence to the right people and they reported on it. I dont even know what claims about gsync you mean. You're literally just strawmaning

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20 minutes ago, S w a t s o n said:

AMD didnt come out and make a statement, they provided evidence to the right people and they reported on it. I dont even know what claims about gsync you mean. You're literally just strawmaning

That is not what straw manning is ( I honestly worry about LTT with the number of people who don't understand what a straw man argument is, yet throw the accusation around like their life depends on it).  

 

What evidence did they provide? where is it?  that is the point, we have none, you didn't see it and can't link anyone to it.  You only have HArdOP's word that it exists at all, and seeing as no evidence has been provided to us are you going to call HardOP liars as well?

 

All I am asking is if you apply the same standards to every claim made without evidence or is Huang only lying because he is the CEO of nvidia?  maybe you think he is lying because you don't like the claim he made?  either way you have no evidence it is a lie so I am asking if you are consistent with your accusation or if they only apply to companies you don't like? 

Grammar and spelling is not indicative of intelligence/knowledge.  Not having the same opinion does not always mean lack of understanding.  

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8 hours ago, mr moose said:

That is not what straw manning is ( I honestly worry about LTT with the number of people who don't understand what a straw man argument is, yet throw the accusation around like their life depends on it).  

 

What evidence did they provide? where is it?  that is the point, we have none, you didn't see it and can't link anyone to it.  You only have HArdOP's word that it exists at all, and seeing as no evidence has been provided to us are you going to call HardOP liars as well?

 

All I am asking is if you apply the same standards to every claim made without evidence or is Huang only lying because he is the CEO of nvidia?  maybe you think he is lying because you don't like the claim he made?  either way you have no evidence it is a lie so I am asking if you are consistent with your accusation or if they only apply to companies you don't like? 

https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/tools/lp/Bo/LogicalFallacies/169/Strawman_Fallacy

 

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Really AMD is to blame? are they sure its not more im not paying that F%$ing price for 15% more performance. 

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On 11/30/2018 at 6:47 AM, Tech Enthusiast said:

That is exactly the point why it is so great. It shows gamer data only.

I don't claim the RX 580 is selling badly at all. I even think it is the most sold GPU for mining ever. But we really can't tell.

 

What we indeed can tell is that Steam is, by far, the biggest gaming Platform for PCs and if they show a market share for a GPU, that means it is representative for gamers.

If we are talking about popularity across gamers, there really is no debate to be had. The little possibilities you mentioned like bragging rights would a very valid reason for a discussion if the numbers would be close enough that such things could be a determining factor. But we are looking at a very, very one sides set of numbers here. 

 

I am all up for letting possibilities and reasoning be part of a discussion why numbers may be off by a few percent, but most definitely not by THAT much. We are talking a factor of 1.05x or even 1.5x here, but a factor of 30x. No way in hell can you argue a factor of 30 is actually just a 70/30 share.

 

Again: This is for gamers only. I don't care about workstations or anything else, because we don't have any numbers backing up any claims we may try to make. We do have those for gamers only.

You're making a fundamental mistake in your assertion that the Steam Hardware Survey is representative of gamers.

 

You assume that all (or even most) gamers use Steam.

 

That's a flawed assumption. I'm sure lots of gamers use steam, but - especially considering the price point and specific market of the RX 580 - many gamers play games like WoW and LoL or Overwatch or Fortnite exclusively. They have their one game, and play it. And the 580 is perfect for those kinds of games, because they can max out quality settings at 1080p and get really good frames.

 

How many WoW or LoL or Overwatch or Fortnite players also play steam games? I don't know. And neither do you.

 

So the Steam Survey definitely gives us insight into which GPU's tend to be popular, but it does not in any way prove which GPU's are selling better than others - nor which GPU's gamers prefer overall. Therefore we cannot rely on the Steam Survey to accurately tell us overall marketshare or specific GPU rankings.

 

For example, someone who exclusively plays LoL is very unlikely to buy a 1080 Ti because that's overkill and stupid. But they are pretty likely to buy an RX 580 or GTX 1060 or other similarly situated mid-range GPU's.

 

Lastly, Steam Survey reports installed base for Steam. That includes all the old GPU's people still use because they never upgraded. It doesn't give us raw numbers on actual GPU's sold - though you can attempt to infer that based on percentage changes month over month, but that's not reliable because you don't know why a percentage changed. Perhaps someone swapped in a spare GPU. Perhaps a GPU died and they got a free replacement/upgrade, etc.

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7 hours ago, S w a t s o n said:

and?

 

I haven't used a strawman argument.   You clearly don't understand what they are.   Asking you if you apply the same standards and rational consistency to other similar situations is not a strawman argument.   A My question is not irrelevant, misrepresentation nor exaggerated. It is in fact very important to determine why you feel it is O.K to call one person out for making BS claims but not another  in a very similar situation.

 

So unless you answer the question it is fairly safe to assume that you either don't like what he is saying and therefore determine it to be a lie or you are consistent with that approach to public figures and corporations and thus consider AMD to be liars in similar situations.

 

 

Grammar and spelling is not indicative of intelligence/knowledge.  Not having the same opinion does not always mean lack of understanding.  

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Nvidia has been competing with itself.

 

They have themselves to blame.

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