Nvidia misses Revenue estimate - Huang says AMD to blame

[Curufinwe_wins]

7 minutes ago, S w a t s o n said:

No it's not, if you read the interview they talk about crypto a bunch too, just stop. The steam hardware survey is not an indicator if a card is the 24th most sold gpu in the world when we're talking about a card like the 580 and you know it. It's disengenious to even seperate the 580 from the 480. Which 1060 was jensen talking about 3gb or 6gb? There's ambiguity here but no that much that he can make that claim.

Look. It's really simple. I showed you evidence within the sector he was explicitly talking about in the sentence before and after. I never claimed it was authoritative or comprehensive. 

 

Remember how he said normally it would be 90-10 in the comparison, and now it is 50-50? That is explicitly within the gaming channel and not general or crypto. And explicitly 

 

Find some evidence to backup your claim he is lying and we can continue this. 

[mikat]

corporate nonsense rears its ugly head again!

[Brooksie359]

10 hours ago, leadeater said:

What, that makes no sense?

I think what he is trying to say is that they had made predictions based on the rx 580 not being available for gamers due to crypto mining. If you produce product assuming most of the demand will buy your cards it becomes an issue when the competition suddenly has supply again. The rx 580 wasn't a card that I recommend for a long time do to absurd prices due to cryptomining. 

[leadeater]

24 minutes ago, Brooksie359 said:

I think what he is trying to say is that they had made predictions based on the rx 580 not being available for gamers due to crypto mining. If you produce product assuming most of the demand will buy your cards it becomes an issue when the competition suddenly has supply again. The rx 580 wasn't a card that I recommend for a long time do to absurd prices due to cryptomining. 

Yea I could see that right up until it was mentioned that the GTX 1060 is the most widely sold GPU and the RX 580 is the 24th, I don't think under any situation a GPU with that little sales in comparison is going to have any meaningful effect to the GTX 1060. Maybe he was just fudging the numbers and was using his "RX 580 sold to gamers numbers" but I very much doubt he could actually accurately know why someone is buying a RX 580, Nvidia struggle to identify that of their own products.

[Curufinwe_wins]

34 minutes ago, leadeater said:

Yea I could see that right up until it was mentioned that the GTX 1060 is the most widely sold GPU and the RX 580 is the 24th, I don't think under any situation a GPU with that little sales in comparison is going to have any meaningful effect to the GTX 1060. Maybe he was just fudging the numbers and was using his "RX 580 sold to gamers numbers" but I very much doubt he could actually accurately know why someone is buying a RX 580, Nvidia struggle to identify that of their own products.

I think the raw data (in the interview) is evidence enough. Before the crypto crash, they were selling 9 1060s for every 580 sold (by market analysis in the gaming/dyi channel). Right now, due to the crypto market crash and AMD being willing to drop prices farther than Nvidia, he just said they are seeing 50/50 sales.

 

Pretty clear cut really. The 1060 wasn't a big crypto mover, Polaris 10 was. Now crypto stock has to go onto the general market again, and so nvidia is being priced out (at least temporarily).

[leadeater]

20 minutes ago, Curufinwe_wins said:

I think the raw data (in the interview) is evidence enough. Before the crypto crash, they were selling 9 1060s for every 580 sold (by market analysis in the gaming/dyi channel). Right now, due to the crypto market crash and AMD being willing to drop prices farther than Nvidia, he just said they are seeing 50/50 sales.

 

Pretty clear cut really. The 1060 wasn't a big crypto mover, Polaris 10 was. Now crypto stock has to go onto the general market again, and so nvidia is being priced out (at least temporarily).

 That doesn't really address the very first part of the marketrealist article though.

 

Quote

This revenue miss was purely from the gaming segment, as an unexpected increase in its midrange GPU (graphics processing unit) inventory forced the company to halt its midrange shipments. NVIDIA’s inventory rose 30% sequentially and 65% YoY (year-over-year) to $1.4 billion in the third quarter of fiscal 2019. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang was surprised by the magnitude of the GPU inventory.

This is saying Nvidia's inventory, it's own, increased so they stopped shipping more. RX 580 declining is a factor for ratio of sales he believes is for gaming, RX 580 might also be massively overstocked but a lot of the really big mining sales were direct from supplier, out of network.

 

The sum total of the channel might be over stocked, but Nvidia's is directly as well. Whether you look at it as a whole, which makes it look worse, or just at Nvidia's they're all over stocked and not selling in as larger volumes as before. Is he saying that his own product being over stocked is because of AMD? Well that either means those were mining sales or sales because the people that wanted to buy an RX 580 had to get a GTX 1060 instead because of lack of supply of the RX 580, due to mining.

 

You can slice this story many ways, it still says Nvidia's inventory is higher than before and it's the CEO's job or any other PR position person to spin it as best they can. Overall it's a nothing story, GPU sales are down so obviously revenue will be as well.

 

Edit: Also from the VB article.

Quote

Huang: My point is that we just don’t know — when we’re going through what we see as our own sales, and what the percentage of Bitcoin is in our own sales, what we don’t know is how much inventory AMD pushed into the channel. There’s no way for us to calculate that.

 

[Curufinwe_wins]

1 hour ago, leadeater said:

 That doesn't really address the very first part of the marketrealist article though.

 

This is saying Nvidia's inventory, it's own, increased so they stopped shipping more. RX 580 declining is a factor for ratio of sales he believes is for gaming, RX 580 might also be massively overstocked but a lot of the really big mining sales were direct from supplier, out of network.

 

The sum total of the channel might be over stocked, but Nvidia's is directly as well. Whether you look at it as a whole, which makes it look worse, or just at Nvidia's they're all over stocked and not selling in as larger volumes as before. Is he saying that his own product being over stocked is because of AMD? Well that either means those were mining sales or sales because the people that wanted to buy an RX 580 had to get a GTX 1060 instead because of lack of supply of the RX 580, due to mining.

 

You can slice this story many ways, it still says Nvidia's inventory is higher than before and it's the CEO's job or any other PR position person to spin it as best they can. Overall it's a nothing story, GPU sales are down so obviously revenue will be as well.

 

Edit: Also from the VB article.

 

Direct from supplier sales drying up though means the excess lead-time inventory on the process parts then have to be dumped somewhere. If AMD (and it's partners) dumps units that were either made for mining or were in the pipeline from mining and thus were diverted to retail, then pricing drops. Pricing drops, Nvidia's offerings are less competitive, and sell fewer units. 

 

Idk, this is them saying (in the natural CEO spin) that they didn't want to keep lowering prices to be able to sell enough units to keep inventory down. Nothing more or less. The market got flooded on both ends from mining leftovers (in this particular segment of the market, that would be disproportionately more units from AMD), so rather than letting the prices keep falling, they pulled back shipments instead.

 

Market analysis showed the hypermajority of crypto sales were for AMD.

 

 

[Tech Enthusiast]

6 hours ago, S w a t s o n said:

I refuse to believe the mainstream RX580 is number 24, fuck off jensen

Well, then check this, click on Video Cards and count down.

If you ignore the intel iGPUs you get to around 24.

[Yoinkerman]

Yes, you'd make more money if there was less competition.  Welcome to monopoly 100

[Tech Enthusiast]

5 hours ago, S w a t s o n said:

The steam hardware survey is not an indicator if a card is the 24th most sold gpu in the world when we're talking about a card like the 580 and you know it. It's disengenious to even seperate the 580 from the 480.

Well, if steam is no indicator for a gaming GPU, what else is?

Even if you add the 480 numbers ontop of the 580 numbers, you get 1.09% share. That is still way lower than even the 1080ti at 1.49%.

And it also is about 1/13th of GTX 1060 users. AMD defenders keep chanting how AMD is "dominating the market that makes the most money", when in reality even 1080tis sell more than their flagship GPU in that segment. And considering even GTX 660s and GT 720Ms are ahead of the RX 580,... i see no reason to believe that either RX 580, nor AMD is doing well with gamers.

 

RX 580 (even with 480 counted in) is nearly unimportant for gamers. It was a mining card that happens to be fine for gaming too. And AMD is willing to hand it out for very little money. Yet people still seem to not buy it. Vega is not even on that chart, due to a market share that is low enough to fall under the "other" category, in a list that includes more than 100 GPU entries.

[Jurrunio]

2 minutes ago, Tech Enthusiast said:

Well, if steam is no indicator for a gaming GPU, what else is?

Even if you add the 480 numbers ontop of the 580 numbers, you get 1.09% share. That is still way lower than even the 1080ti at 1.49%.

And it also is about 1/13th of GTX 1060 users. AMD defenders keep chanting how AMD is "dominating the market that makes the most money", when in reality even 1080tis sell more than their flagship GPU in that segment. And considering even GTX 660s and GT 720Ms are ahead of the RX 580,... i see no reason to believe that either RX 580, nor AMD is doing well with gamers.

 

RX 580 (even with 480 counted in) is nearly unimportant for gamers. It was a mining card that happens to be fine for gaming too. And AMD is willing to hand it out for very little money. Yet people still seem to not buy it. Vega is not even on that chart, due to a market share that is low enough to fall under the "other" category, in a list that includes more than 100 GPU entries.

Polaris drawing more power than Pascal is also a pain for AMD. Gaming laptops rarely carry RX cards

[leadeater]

36 minutes ago, Tech Enthusiast said:

Well, if steam is no indicator for a gaming GPU, what else is?

There is a rather large number of GPUs sold not for mining that also would not show up in Steam hardware survey, that and you actually have to be offered to partake in the survey and actually submit your results to them. I do it every time though but others might not. It's a fairly good proportion indicator for custom PC builders who play games as their main purpose of the system, and also SI's that focus on gamers.

 

It doesn't cover things like business computers, small time professionals, Apple/Macs, education/research or that sort of thing where Steam is likely not installed. None of the workstations at work have Steam installed, they all have GPUs (Quadros but hey they won't be in the Steam survey though).

[S w a t s o n]

1 hour ago, Tech Enthusiast said:

Well, if steam is no indicator for a gaming GPU, what else is?

Even if you add the 480 numbers ontop of the 580 numbers, you get 1.09% share. That is still way lower than even the 1080ti at 1.49%.

And it also is about 1/13th of GTX 1060 users. AMD defenders keep chanting how AMD is "dominating the market that makes the most money", when in reality even 1080tis sell more than their flagship GPU in that segment. And considering even GTX 660s and GT 720Ms are ahead of the RX 580,... i see no reason to believe that either RX 580, nor AMD is doing well with gamers.

 

RX 580 (even with 480 counted in) is nearly unimportant for gamers. It was a mining card that happens to be fine for gaming too. And AMD is willing to hand it out for very little money. Yet people still seem to not buy it. Vega is not even on that chart, due to a market share that is low enough to fall under the "other" category, in a list that includes more than 100 GPU entries.

There's no such thing a fucking mining card. It's a goddamn GPU. Again, I believe the context is not 24 in sales for gaming only so please stop bringing up steam or gaming numbers. If you think RX480/580 is not doing well with gamers you're delusional. It's literally the most important and highest volume segment for AMD (and nvidia for that matter). I 100% guarantee the fucking gt720 has not sold more units.

If you game on AMD you are probably gaming on polaris at this point

[mr moose]

7 hours ago, S w a t s o n said:

There's no out of context here, he later talks about his market share in gaming but here is just stating the number one selling gpu in the world and the 24th gpu in the world.

He's lying about the 24th gpu in the world

evidence?

[Amazonsucks]

37 minutes ago, S w a t s o n said:

There's no such thing a fucking mining card. It's a goddamn GPU. Again, I believe the context is not 24 in sales for gaming only so please stop bringing up steam or gaming numbers. If you think RX480/580 is not doing well with gamers you're delusional. It's literally the most important and highest volume segment for AMD (and nvidia for that matter). I 100% guarantee the fucking gt720 has not sold more units.

If you game on AMD you are probably gaming on polaris at this point

I thought Asus and some others did make mining specific cards and motherboards that lacked the normal video outs and had a ton of PCIe slots for the motherboard.

[S w a t s o n]

55 minutes ago, Amazonsucks said:

I thought Asus and some others did make mining specific cards and motherboards that lacked the normal video outs and had a ton of PCIe slots for the motherboard.

They made mining models of the 1060 and 580 and others. You know both what he was implying and what I meant

[S w a t s o n]

1 hour ago, mr moose said:

evidence?

Logic and paying attention to the GPU market for years. He (Jensen Huang) didnt bring out any evidence for his claim, I can call bullshit without "evidence" as well. He's talking about a competitor's product so you cant just take him at his word.

[Tech Enthusiast]

2 hours ago, leadeater said:

None of the workstations at work have Steam installed, they all have GPUs (Quadros but hey they won't be in the Steam survey though).

And that is exactly why i exclude workstations. They don't use a low-midrange GPU build for gamers.

The Steam Survey has enough entries to be accurate statistically speaking. I doubt AMD customers are less likely to allow the survey. I mean, on what basis would that assumtion stand?

 

There is no way to make it sound less dramatic than it looks. AMD is almost irrelevant for gamers, no matter how vocal those few are. We could argue about this if the survey would be a close call. Hell, even if AMD had 20%. But they don't even show up before 5+ year old Nvidia and iGPUs and their flagship is listed as "other". The evidence is just too clear to start a debate about it really. 

 

That being said, we (the tech nerd guys that visit forums like these) should make sure that the wider audience actually hears about competetive products like the RX 580. I mean, it IS better than a 1060 most of the time. Yet it has like 1/30th of the market share (by gamers). Without us trying, AMD is not gonna get out of this hole i am afraid. It sure does not look like it for now. Even with some products being really good and even superior.

[Tech Enthusiast]

1 hour ago, S w a t s o n said:

If you think RX480/580 is not doing well with gamers you're delusional. It's literally the most important and highest volume segment for AMD (and nvidia for that matter). 

You realize that you are the one being delusional here, right?

The numbers are right there. The context does not make this go away. Without the mining, AMD would probably be dead on the ground. And that mining craze is kinda gone now. So shutting our eyes and ears is not gonna help much.

 

It may be the highest volume segment for gamer. I agree and the survey shows exactly that as well. 

But how can you say the RX 580 is well-received by gamer if the freaking 1080ti outsells it by a factor of 3. The 1060 (same segment) by a factor of 30. You can't just mix and match your arguments to make it sound better. You insist on not bringing up steam, but you also insist on gamers loving the GPU. Steam shows that gamers don't like the RX 580. In fact, you could argue a market share of 1% (480 and 580 combined!) means they avoid it.

 

You can insist on the RX 580 selling like pancakes all day long. But there is no market that wants the card anymore. Mining was a big boon and we all know that. But neither workstation, nor gaming PCs use it. And the full inventory of vendors combined with NVidias statement kinda proves exactly that. Or, if you insist on not believing the evidence, then at least show us some numbers that back up the great sales and market share. 

[mr moose]

17 minutes ago, S w a t s o n said:

Logic and paying attention to the GPU market for years. He (Jensen Huang) didnt bring out any evidence for his claim, I can call bullshit without "evidence" as well. He's talking about a competitor's product so you cant just take him at his word.

 

You can call BS, but without evidence it's just you not wanting it to be true.

[S w a t s o n]

9 minutes ago, mr moose said:

 

You can call BS, but without evidence it's just you not wanting it to be true.

He can pull claims out of his ass but without proof it's just a pipe dream

[S w a t s o n]

10 minutes ago, Tech Enthusiast said:

You realize that you are the one being delusional here, right?

The numbers are right there. The context does not make this go away. Without the mining, AMD would probably be dead on the ground. And that mining craze is kinda gone now. So shutting our eyes and ears is not gonna help much.

 

It may be the highest volume segment for gamer. I agree and the survey shows exactly that as well. 

But how can you say the RX 580 is well-received by gamer if the freaking 1080ti outsells it by a factor of 3. The 1060 (same segment) by a factor of 30. You can't just mix and match your arguments to make it sound better. You insist on not bringing up steam, but you also insist on gamers loving the GPU. Steam shows that gamers don't like the RX 580. In fact, you could argue a market share of 1% (480 and 580 combined!) means they avoid it.

 

You can insist on the RX 580 selling like pancakes all day long. But there is no market that wants the card anymore. Mining was a big boon and we all know that. But neither workstation, nor gaming PCs use it. And the full inventory of vendors combined with NVidias statement kinda proves exactly that. Or, if you insist on not believing the evidence, then at least show us some numbers that back up the great sales and market share. 

You what? Are you just an Nvidia shill? You think there is no market for the RX580? Do you think everyone lives in tech tuber land with triple 4k monitors? Steam doesn't show "gamers dont like the rx580" what editorialized bullshit is that? It's highly recommended by people within it's price bracket. Nvidia enjoys a mindshare advantage but the card was well received. Maybe put on your rational thinking cap next time

[Mihle]

In my country RX 580 is cheaper than GTX 1060. I bet 1060 still sell more because:

 

1. NVIDIA Fanboys

2. People that don't really know much and just get Nvidia because that's what they have heard about from their friend or something.

3. People that don't know that much and sees that GTX 1080 TI or RTX 2080 outperform Vega, and therefore expect it to be the same at lower pricepoints without checking if it's actually that way. (Hint, it's not)

 

Bet lot of people is in category 2. and 3 sadly.

[sof006]

Sure Nvidia, blame another company. That's obviously the fault.

[vorticalbox]

19 hours ago, leadeater said:

What, that makes no sense?

I think what he is saying is that normally in the gaming segment it would be 90/80 but with amd gaming cards being good for miming people buying them not for gaming means they are under represented.

 

To much  my only response is 

 

 

And? 

 

Sounds like Nvidia are shouting "daddy amd is making more money than I thought they would and that's not fair!"