Will PC building eventually end?

[Hikaru12]

I've been thinking about this for the past few days - Intel is eventually going to end the tick-tock way of doing things. Apple has also announced the end of the 3.5mm jack on its phone (and perhaps future products). I have a feeling in a decade or two, the PC building community is going to shrink because Intel and motherboard manufacturers will be moving to "all in one integrated solutions" where everything is soldered into the board. Don't believe me? I'm only 25 and I still remember being able to build laptops from scratch by starting with an empty shell and being able to fit common components. Even when that was dropped, you could still swap RAM and your hard drive but now laptop manufacturers have continually moved in the direction of not having any serviceable parts - tablets have long been known for this as well. I really think PC's will move in that direction as well.

 

If you guys have been following the news on light designed circuitry where the entire motherboard will use glass circuits instead of copper conductors then there will eventually be no real serviceable parts as well. Motherboard manufacturers may realize it's no longer profitable to make motherboards that can be built upon. Other things like Google's Project Arya that turned into a fail also point to this as well. I'm concerned about this because while this may move us in a better direction technology wise it limits the consumers choice. In the car market, you're already seeing this as we supposedly have options "motor size, trims, etc." but because of the complexity and cost involved with building one it's left up to corporations thus even though you may even possess the know how on how to build a car you wouldn't ever be able to do it cheaply or safe enough to use on the road. This isn't necessarily a bad thing but prices out a lot of consumers. 

 

Anyway I'd like to know what you guys think about this? Surely there will still be used parts hanging around somewhere and where there is a market there will always be a business willing to meet customer's demands but I do honestly think the PC building community is going to shrink in the upcoming years.

[Electronics Wizardy]

Yep this is goin to happen. I think servers will stay serviceable for longer, but we will have more soc and soldered on parts.

[Oshino Shinobu]

I think building PCs will eventually phase out, but not for the reasons you've suggested. Laptops became primarily soldered onto boards for space saving reasons as well as for production costs. For desktop PCs, size is not as much as a concern. I can see them being replaced, but not becoming soldered like laptops have. 

 

I think cloud and centralised computing will eventually knock out any need for powerful client devices and everything will be done on a central system with AIO client devices. 

[xgn]

No but silicone chips will end when intel reach 5 or 7 nm pins space

[ThinkWithPortals]

I dread the day when it happens.

[Zyndo]

well, i think there will be more integration, but only to a point. Building a PC will probably always be a thing for as long as there are customers who want to do that. Most people don't want to build a laptop, so interchangeable laptop parts become less and less common, but for as long as people want to pay for something, there will be someone selling it. We probably won't ever get to a point where a CPU and motherboard are permanently affixed to one another as those units (unless redonkulously cheap) will not sell as well as the same motherboard and CPU would separately since you could upgrade later. that would go for most other primary components. Other things like sound cards, LAN ports, RAID cards, and so on have already become integrated in many systems today and I could see more features like that becoming standard on motherboards, but other than that I just don't see primary devices like storage or a graphics card becoming an all-in-one. even if it were cheaper to make it would be less profitable to sell such components in a desktop since people don't want that sort of thing.

6 minutes ago, xgn said:

No but silicone chips will end when intel reach 5 or 7 nm pins space

 

5 minutes ago, ThinkWithPortals said:

I dread the day when it happens.

GRAPHENE CHIPS BRAH! do not dread, they will be awesome!

[glitchmaster0001]

yes PC building will phase out someday when we can get 7nm or smaller chips and if CPUs and GPUs become even more power efficient while giving more performance, then we will see DIY PC phase out. i predict maybe in the next 10 or so years though.  We saw the beginning of this with NVIDA's release of the GTX 10 series GPUs and how now we can put full fledged desktop 10 series GPUs in laptops since how power efficient they are. we will get to the point that desktops will become obosete with the increasing perfomance and efficiency gains of PC parts 

[SLAYR]

The intel "core" lineup could phase out, but intel, and other motherboard makers will most likely still have the enthusiast chips/motherboards like x79/x99.

 

Colorful have even put a SoC gtx 1070, with a lga 1151 socket on the same motherboard, so even dedicated gpus may be integrated, and be sold with the motherboard one day, or just be a available as an aio unit.

 

EDIt: http://wccftech.com/colorful-b150-gp104-gtx-1070-onboard/

[Donut417]

Linus had a though a few years back about a whole home solution. Where you have something with a lot of resources like a server and had dumb terminals that would connect in to that. So more like a centralized machine. I could see something like this in the future. I think for the foreseeable future building PC will still happen.

[Hikaru12]

31 minutes ago, Oshino Shinobu said:

I think building PCs will eventually phase out, but not for the reasons you've suggested. Laptops became primarily soldered onto boards for space saving reasons as well as for production costs. For desktop PCs, size is not as much as a concern. I can see them being replaced, but not becoming soldered like laptops have. 

 

I think cloud and centralised computing will eventually knock out any need for powerful client devices and everything will be done on a central system with AIO client devices. 

I thought about this as well. I fear the future is more focused on decentralizing storage and removing privacy from the equation - the convenience of these tools will make sure most people sign up. I mean how many people use Dropbox or OneDrive on a consistent basis? Even encryption will not prevent issues from arising as they only slows down potential privacy hacks. 

[SageOfSpice]

It seems a lot of people feel things are going to move in this direction, with both vehicles and computers.

Vehicle components moving towards modularity and inservicability, computers moving towards inservicability?

 

I suppose I can understand the concern. Building computers is a tad less relevant when compared to an individuals ability to repair said computers. Parts fail, it's a thing that happens. It doesn't matter who you buy from, or what you buy, everything holds the potential to fail in an unforeseen way. I think this is what scares people the most. If you've watched any of Louis Rossman's videos, you know he's always raving about stupid design choices, and about how cheap parts were used in the wrong places. All of these issues on computers that are already not designed to be interchangeable or modular. The answer to that? Taking it to independent repair shops that aren't given access to relevant information regarding the products, or paying an exorbitant fee to have the whole computer simply replaced instead of repaired.

 

I think it's hard to say which direction things will ultimately go. 

 

I think I agree with the thought of streaming becoming the solution. It makes more sense to focus resources on a few devices capable of providing services to billions of people rather than having to worry about servicing billions of devices. The devices, having less to do, could then likely have their development centered around durability and reliability which would decrease material consumption and waste while essentially guaranteeing the quality of service.

 

However, this could just be all of us getting old. "Grandpa, why do you still have that ancient i7?" "IT'S A CONSPIRACY! THEY'RE SPYING ON US ALL!"

[laminutederire]

You guys realize that decentralized computing for a lot of things we actually use, we'd need good Internet connections, which we haven't, and which we won't have soon at the rate ISPs do their thing !

[Donut417]

4 minutes ago, laminutederire said:

You guys realize that decentralized computing for a lot of things we actually use, we'd need good Internet connections, which we haven't, and which we won't have soon at the rate ISPs do their thing !

Yeah, but I mean more on a local scale. 1 very powerful machine in a space in your house. Cloud based computing in most aspects it just a dream. Because we will never have good internet. 

[natey_g]

It will only end if we stop buying!!! NEVER STOP!

[Sauron]

Unlike laptops, desktops have no space constraints nor need carefully engineered cooling to function properly. Laptop building went down the drain because with modern chips spitting out more and more heat it became unfeasible to standardize cases and cooling systems. There's also the thin and light craze, in the end only the most hardcore tinkerers would want to sacrifice convenience for the sake of better value or personal satisfaction. Desktops don't have this problem, and intel has no interest in soldering their chips to anything - they don't do it on laptops either, they send out the chip and the manufacturer does the soldering. Intel is happy any time one of their chips is sold separately, because they make a larger profits than they do by selling them to corporations. Asus & co have all the interest in providing motherboards, it's what they do best. Ram is often not soldered even in laptops, et voilà, there is basically no reason to abandon modularity.

[jonnylaw13]

i think just like cars, as long as theres modders there will be aftermarket parts, if theres an aftermarket there will still be builders. in one form or another pc buiding will not die any time soon, not until we no longer have a need for PCs then it just wont be so mainstream like HAM radios for instance

[Hikaru12]

1 hour ago, SageOfSpice said:

It seems a lot of people feel things are going to move in this direction, with both vehicles and computers.

Vehicle components moving towards modularity and inservicability, computers moving towards inservicability?

 

I suppose I can understand the concern. Building computers is a tad less relevant when compared to an individuals ability to repair said computers. Parts fail, it's a thing that happens. It doesn't matter who you buy from, or what you buy, everything holds the potential to fail in an unforeseen way. I think this is what scares people the most. If you've watched any of Louis Rossman's videos, you know he's always raving about stupid design choices, and about how cheap parts were used in the wrong places. All of these issues on computers that are already not designed to be interchangeable or modular. The answer to that? Taking it to independent repair shops that aren't given access to relevant information regarding the products, or paying an exorbitant fee to have the whole computer simply replaced instead of repaired.

 

I think it's hard to say which direction things will ultimately go. 

 

I think I agree with the thought of streaming becoming the solution. It makes more sense to focus resources on a few devices capable of providing services to billions of people rather than having to worry about servicing billions of devices. The devices, having less to do, could then likely have their development centered around durability and reliability which would decrease material consumption and waste while essentially guaranteeing the quality of service.

 

However, this could just be all of us getting old. "Grandpa, why do you still have that ancient i7?" "IT'S A CONSPIRACY! THEY'RE SPYING ON US ALL!"

 

Right on. My main concern for vehicles especially internal combusion engines is as governments require them to be more environmentally friendly this will increase the complexity of cars to huge proportions to the point where I think the average weekend warrior will not be able to fix their own cars - whether it be from lack of knowledge or the inability to afford the specialized tools of the future. Entertainment systems, computers, and eventually self driving cars also compound the problem. Electric cars may eventually lead the way as they are much more simpler in design but they also require a tremendous amount of power and the power grid as it stands would not be able to service that many electric vehicles unless serious infrastructure changes were made (such as upgrading to nuclear or possibly cold fusion if feasible in the future). 

 

This is a main concern not only because of the cost (having to buy a new product vs repairing something) but a total waste and environmental pollutant (filling up landfills with a bunch of dead PC's where a solder joint failed). I believe this is expanding throughout every sector of our lives - can't repair these new TV's, coffee makers, etc. I think this will eventually push people to seek simpler solutions whilst abandoning some features. Manufacturers are increasingly adding more features, increasing complexity and building in planned obsolescence which is pretty fucked up if you ask me.

[Hikaru12]

1 hour ago, Donut417 said:

Yeah, but I mean more on a local scale. 1 very powerful machine in a space in your house. Cloud based computing in most aspects it just a dream. Because we will never have good internet. 

 

This will eventually change if we can get the government to stop making deals with ISP's and instead open up competition in areas by allowing any company to access their lines. One could argue this is more difficult in America because we've been here for a while, unlike developing countries like Taiwan, South Korea, etc. who can more rapidly put down new fast internet infrastructure as they construct new roads. This, however, leads to a bigger problem like the government being in bed with companies which will have to get fixed first.

[Thaldor]

55 minutes ago, Hikaru12 said:

 

This will eventually change if we can get the government to stop making deals with ISP's and instead open up competition in areas by allowing any company to access their lines. One could argue this is more difficult in America because we've been here for a while, unlike developing countries like Taiwan, South Korea, etc. who can more rapidly put down new fast internet infrastructure as they construct new roads. This, however, leads to a bigger problem like the government being in bed with companies which will have to get fixed first.

Problem with company made internet lines (be that cable or fiber) is that someone needs to pay it and that someone usually wants something for that money. In Finland goverment tried to get companies build cable lines everywhere and to get access to them for everyone and goverment would pay some part of the bill, but that failed because every ISP understood the problem behind that; They would need to pay the lion share of the building process and put that into their prices and at the same time every other ISP gets to use that line and their prices are far lower than the ones who build it and also the one who build it would loose customers because their prices would be much higher. The only viable solution in business mind would be that the other ISPs would need to pay rent for using that line, but then there would be a lot of places with unfair competition.

 

To the real topic. PC building probably won't ever end. There's always people who can, want and will make their own cases because they can and there's no case in the market they want. There's always the question "can this run even better?" and the answer will always be "maybe", be that changing parts from other computer to second to get better parts or change the parts where manufacturer made budget cuts or changing the cooling to another to overclock parts (even when in the future we get something like graphene CPUs there's always room for OC) or just for the looks. Many standards today are very viable to the future, like PCIe (there's no GPU yet to be so powerful that it gets bottlenecked by using PCIe2.0 port). Already companies like EK, CableMods and almost every company that makes something for custom PCs is serving only marginal mass out of the all who use PCs and even with cars where there already is cars that are impossible to fix without knowledge and expensive tools, there's still people who have that knowledge and enough motivation to have those expensive tools and there probably will always be.

 

Probably only end for computer building is if there's some technology that just is the end. But that kind of technology is probably so far in the future, I don't think humans even look like us anymore when that technology is found. Even if something like graphene proves out to be the material for that kind of technology, it's just the material, not the technology. And really, the end will be that we have a computer with unlimited computing power which doesn't loose any power generating heat and which doesn't need any external power, because if even one of those isn't achieved there's still something to improve and then there will be someone trying to do that and companies will bring their own improved products and so there will be people building frankenstein PCs with which they try the limits of that technology. And then there are those who are after the visuals, even if that "the end" PC is only a translucent screen, someone doesn't like it's shape, even if it can be shaped by user, someone wants it to float in the air, even if it can do even that, someone wants it to be something it cannot be and then there's that guy who wants to make it out of real wood.

[GSTARR]

So be it lol

[SLAYR]

3 hours ago, Donut417 said:

Linus had a though a few years back about a whole home solution. Where you have something with a lot of resources like a server and had dumb terminals that would connect in to that. So more like a centralized machine. I could see something like this in the future. I think for the foreseeable future building PC will still happen.

You can see that now, it is 100% possible to setup a server and have a few thin clients connect to each vm.

 

A thin client setup like that sounds good, but really you are buying one really good computer, and a bunch of crappy computers to run each terminal, if you have a few really old computers that can't run newer programs, or operating systems it is a great idea, but the hypervisors to run the vms out there are not user friendly at all, and most people only have 1 or 2 computers in their house. If you run an internet cafe, or something like that were you have a lot of computers, and people don't need a lot of resources it is much more viable.

[Donut417]

2 hours ago, Hikaru12 said:

 

This will eventually change if we can get the government to stop making deals with ISP's and instead open up competition in areas by allowing any company to access their lines. One could argue this is more difficult in America because we've been here for a while, unlike developing countries like Taiwan, South Korea, etc. who can more rapidly put down new fast internet infrastructure as they construct new roads. This, however, leads to a bigger problem like the government being in bed with companies which will have to get fixed first.

The issue with the US is our size. Its just not economically feasible to run fiber every where. Google is finding that out the hard way. Plus the corruption in our political system. Plus you have to deal with laws and regulations of each state, and soo much red tape. Where in Korea, they might not have as much red tape. Plus they are very small in size and many people live close together. Where in the US we have people who own shit loads of property. 

 

The best we can hope for is DOCSIS 3.1 taking off and plans not being hell of expensive. Comcast wants $140 a month for a 1 Gpbs down 30Mpbs up Docsis 3.1 connection. All we can hope for is better standards that can be applied to the technology already in use. 

[Hikaru12]

1 minute ago, Donut417 said:

The issue with the US is our size. Its just not economically feasible to run fiber every where. Google is finding that out the hard way. Plus the corruption in our political system. Plus you have to deal with laws and regulations of each state, and soo much red tape. Where in Korea, they might not have as much red tape. Plus they are very small in size and many people live close together. Where in the US we have people who own shit loads of property. 

 

The best we can hope for is DOCSIS 3.1 taking off and plans not being hell of expensive. Comcast wants $140 a month for a 1 Gpbs down 30Mpbs up Docsis 3.1 connection. All we can hope for is better standards that can be applied to the technology already in use. 

That's fairly reasonable given the speed but I doubt Comcast will live up to that speed and they still have bandwidth caps so that extra speed means nothing. Those laws come from that very corruption - other people have suggested that their local governments take over the lines and become similar to the utility company, their own ISP. I don't know how I would feel about that seeing as most local governments can't even fix potholes let alone manage a complex operation like becoming a Service Provider but they should at least give incentives with guaranteed proof of infrastructure revamping. 

[Godlygamer23]

4 hours ago, xgn said:

No but silicone chips will end when intel reach 5 or 7 nm pins space

Silicon. 

Silicone is a rubber-like material. Silicon is the material found in sand.

[Donut417]

1 minute ago, Hikaru12 said:

That's fairly reasonable given the speed but I doubt Comcast will live up to that speed and they still have bandwidth caps so that extra speed means nothing. Those laws come from that very corruption - other people have suggested that their local governments take over the lines and become similar to the utility company, their own ISP. I don't know how I would feel about that seeing as most local governments can't even fix potholes let alone manage a complex operation like becoming a Service Provider but they should at least give incentives with guaranteed proof of infrastructure revamping. 

Comcast hasn't capped all areas. And with a 3 year agreement no caps are applied to the above connection. Comcast is actually going to be upgrading a few cities by the end of the year to Docsis 3.1. Its easy for them to do, because Docsis 3.0 devices can coexist on the same network. I hear parts of Detroit should be upgraded by the end of the year.  

 

As far as caps go, Verizon is fucking up big time with their caps. With them saying users are using shit tones of data even when the device is off. The FCC has received hundreds of thousands of complaints due to Comcast's caps. Eventually even the Government wont be able to turn a blind eye. Verizon is about to have their ass handed to them by the FCC and FTC and what ever lawyers decided a law suit is needed. You fuck up big long enough then even a corrupt politician will take the side of their constituents. The fact is more people are frustrated with the Governments lack of control.