(Debunked) AMD Fury X production limited to 30,000 units in 2015.

[Briggsy]

If the rumor mill about AMD Fury wasn't already working overtime (see Fury Pro Delay), a new rumor suggests that AMD may be limited to producing roughly 30,000 HBM Graphic Cards for 2015. The rumor suggests that a shortage in HBM memory (rumor upon rumor) is to blame. Not only would this look bad for AMD, but prices would easily skyrocket with a (perceived) limited supply.

 

To put this number in perspective, AMD shipped 8,000 BF4 Edition 290X's alone at the launch of Hawaii, and Hawaii cards sold out within hours of launch. It's also said that Nvidia sold 1 million GM204 chips in 2.5 Months after launch (gtx 970, 980 with lots of buyers going SLI).

 

Is this AMD trying to hype up their new cards and inflate the prices? Somehow I doubt this is a PR stunt. AMD have likely ironed out prices with vendors already, and vendors inflating prices does not mean more money for AMD.

 

If this rumor is true, it may bite AMD in their rear.

 

http://www.tweaktown.com/news/45835/amd-radeon-fury-rumored-limited-30-000-units-2015/index.html

 

 

 

 

Update

courtesy of @mattebad http://linustechtips.com/main/topic/384890-debunked-amd-fury-x-production-limited-to-30000-units-in-2015/?p=5198616

 

http://wccftech.com/amd-fury-30k-units-2015-air-liquid-cooling/

As for the 30K unit rumor, well we were very suspicious of it from the very beginning, I’ll explain why in a bit. But we ran it by our most reliable and closest sources to AMD just to make sure, these sources have never let us down before not even once just as an FYI. And lo and behold they quickly and decisively told us that it was a load of “insert worthless object here”.  So there you have it folks.

 

First a little bit of history, in November of last year at the UBS technology conference. AMD’s Vice President and General Manager of the Graphics Business Unit, Matt Skynner revealed that It actually costs between $250 million to upwards of a billion dollars to design a GPU. The main determinant of cost would be the size and complexity of the GPU. As larger and more complex chips will require longer design lead times as well as more testing and validation work.

 

30,000 Fury X units translate to $30,000,000 in revenue for AMD in a best case scenario where each individual Fiji XT chip is sold for $1000. Which we don’t think it will, but let’s assume that for argument’s sake. That’s $30 million in revenue in 6 months, half a year. Which would mean $15 million a quarter. Even if we assume that the quantity will double next year and the price will remain the same that is still just $90 million of overall revenue by the middle of next year. At which point AMD is likely to introduce its 16nm Arctic Islands GPUs and stop selling 28nm GPUs all together.

 

You can quickly see the problem here, at that rate, which the rumor is suggesting, AMD would need to keep selling Fury X for $1000 for more than 9 years just to make back the development cost in revenue, which means it would need to sell it for even longer to make any profit.  And that’s simply illogical.

[Nineshadow]

inb4 $1500 AMD Fury.

[Tedster]

This would be a real shame.

[Misanthrope]

If that is true that's just stupid: they should have prepared to have the same chip working with gddr5 precisely because of this, easiest fuck up to prevent of all time.

[KayTees]

If the rumor mill about AMD Fury wasn't already working overtime, a new rumor suggests that AMD may only be producing roughly 30,000 Fiji based cards for 2015. The rumor suggests that a shortage in HBM memory (rumor upon rumor) is to blame. Not only would this look bad for AMD, but prices would easily skyrocket with such a small supply.

 

Is this AMD trying to hype up their card and get a better price for it, even if it means shooting their public image in the proverbial foot? Somehow I doubt this is a PR stunt, and if true this may bite AMD in the rear.

 

http://www.tweaktown.com/news/45835/amd-radeon-fury-rumored-limited-30-000-units-2015/index.html

 

Lol watch everyone stock up on these if this does happen, then randomly AMD releases a fucktonne of them and then everyones stockpile would be worth as much as a empty can.

[UnknownEngineer]

That many units will likely get consumed in a month.

[79 Potatoes]

Well fuck, bye bye to a Cooler master Elite 110 build

[Real_PhillBert]

I'm curious how many 980ti's or Titan X's are produced per year.

 

Just to get some additional context on the problem.

[Jobbe03]

Can we like, make it illegal to post anymore news threads about the AMD cards until the 16th?

Or... You know... You could just not click on it... 

[Biggerisbetter]

This level of foolishness has to stop. This is getting a bit redundant and AMD only producing 30k unit is corporate suicide.  

[dragosudeki]

snip

The lack of HBM sounds realistic, since we know its limitation and that a new improved version will be out. It's likely that production for HBM is slowed due to this upcoming fix. I don't think many of the Fury will be sold anyway, since the more expensive cards will always be for the few. I understand that prices can skyrocket due to limited supply, but that's just common business knowledge no? Also, why is this an AMD PR stunt? Every kind of rumour is just flying all over, so I don't see how AMD is the reason for this at all.

[Thorium19]

I'm curious how many 980ti's or Titan X's are produced per year.

 

Just to get some additional context on the problem.

At least in the hundreds of thousands would be my guess. But then again, they don't have a ridiculously costly new technology integrated do they.

[Jobbe03]

I was expecting a cheeky comment like this.

No shit. your comment was dumb, you deserved a cheeky reply.

[Real_PhillBert]

At least in the hundreds of thousands would be my guess. But then again, they don't have a ridiculously costly new technology integrated do they.

 

I would bet it's fewer than you might think. PC enthusiasts are a pretty small community, and the amount of people willing to pay the kind of money for a Titan or Fury class card is even smaller yet.

 

I would imagine 30K/year would be a limitation but I dont think it's as far from the Titan X production as many people might think. 

 

I did a brief search and couldn't find any solid numbers on Titan production. I could be way off on this, as it is all from gut estimations. 

[FakezZ]

Seriously this is just bullshit. There has been nothing but rumors concerning these cards. AMD just release the damn things ffs. I swear if they are not amazing, the hype and rumors will come around and bite AMD in the ass real hard.

[Thorium19]

I would bet it's fewer than you might think. PC enthusiasts are a pretty small community, and the amount of people willing to pay the kind of money for a Titan or Fury class card is even smaller yet.

 

I would imagine 30K/year would be a limitation but I dont think it's as far from the Titan X production as many people might think. 

 

I did a brief search and couldn't find any solid numbers on Titan production. I could be way off on this, as it is all from gut estimations. 

Yeah, I did a quick search and got nout. It'll definitely be higher than 30,000, that I want to say, but it'll be less than 250,000 I'm fairly sure. 50,000-150,000 seems like a good rough estimate IMO. Less than I would have expected, but I did significantly overestimate in my first go I'm sure.

[bogus]

Seriously this is just bullshit. There has been nothing but rumors concerning these cards. AMD just release the damn things ffs. I swear if they are not amazing, the hype and rumors will come around and bite AMD in the ass real hard.

They will talk about it on the 16th... just because sites are making up content for click bait and ad revenues doesn't mean that it's AMD problem and they should rush something that was already announced.

It's not like the Titan Z where NVIDIA announced it and hold on to it for two months without saying a word just to try to improve drivers... and failed.

[Real_PhillBert]

Yeah, I did a quick search and got nout. It'll definitely be higher than 30,000, that I want to say, but it'll be less than 250,000 I'm fairly sure. 50,000-150,000 seems like a good rough estimate IMO. Less than I would have expected, but I did significantly overestimate in my first go I'm sure.

 

I would guess in the 50-150K range as well. Obviously 30K is going to be a problem, I was just trying to add a bit of perspective as to the scale of the potential shortcoming. 

[Briggsy]

I'm curious how many 980ti's or Titan X's are produced per year.

 

Just to get some additional context on the problem.

 

couldn't find anything about GM200, but I found an article about the HD5000 series, and they said AMD shipped 16million graphic cards in 9 months after HD5000 launch. 

 

Not sure what ratio of those were high end, but its a larger number than I would ever have thought for a graphic card launch.  http://news.techgenie.com/latest/16-million-of-graphic-cards-shipped-by-amd-in-9-months/

[Thorium19]

I would guess in the 50-150K range as well. Obviously 30K is going to be a problem, I was just trying to add a bit of perspective as to the scale of the potential shortcoming. 

Yeah. It probably won't be as bad as people think it is, it just seems like a low number, and it is, but not as low as could be. Stock would probably last well into november or december depending on how it sells, especially when you look at the market share amd had and how likely it is that people will move from nvidia just for a fury card.

[Agent181]

What's LTT without a little douchebaggery here and there I suppose lol.

you called

[zMeul]

I'm curious how many 980ti's or Titan X's are produced per year.

this should be relevant: http://www.kitguru.net/components/graphic-cards/anton-shilov/demand-for-nvidia-geforce-gtx-titan-x-is-unexpectedly-high/but no actual numbers

[FakezZ]

They will talk about it on the 16th... just because sites are making up content for click bait and ad revenues doesn't mean that it's AMD problem and they should rush something that was already announced.

It's not like the Titan Z where NVIDIA announced it and hold on to it for two months without saying a word just to try to improve drivers... and failed.

Well I agree with part of what you said. However, AMD should not go out announcing stuff about their upcoming GPUs and hyping them up months before release... That is asking for rumors.

[Real_PhillBert]

Yeah. It probably won't be as bad as people think it is, it just seems like a low number, and it is, but not as low as could be. Stock would probably last well into november or december depending on how it sells, especially when you look at the market share amd had and how likely it is that people will move from nvidia just for a fury card.

 

Yep, I agree. There will likely be an initial shortage at launch because of the launch rush.

[marldorthegreat]

That number means nothing. How many 980tis will be produced in 1 year? That is where the real comparison lies.