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huilun02

AMD Zen 3 (Vermeer) Could be on TSMC 5nm+

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Posted · Original PosterOP

Disclaimer: This is based on an article not published by AMD or TSMC and the information has not been confirmed by either company. This is considered rumor.

 

 

Taiwanese DigiTimes recently published an article claiming that AMD's next series of desktop processors (Vermeer) based on Zen 3 architechture, would be on TSMC's new 5nm+ process. They say TSMC is accelerating its enhanced 5nm process to mass production in 4Q 2020. AMD has previously published its Zen roadmap which had Zen 3 planned to be using TSMC 7nm+ process. They had also stated that Zen 3 would see IPC uplift of 15%, although this is likely to change if the swap to the new process node is true.

 

Important to note that this information goes against all the information AMD has officially released to date.

 

The post Zen 2 roadmap published by AMD:

index.php?ct=news&action=file&id=33445

 

 

Ryzen 4000 is slated to be unveiled later this year. According to TSMC 5nm+ mass production schedule, the new processors is expected to launch at end of year, or at CES in Jan 2021.

 

Based on a supposed translation of the DigiTimes article (uncut):

Quote

Rumor has it that AMD and TSMC have adjusted their foundry blueprints. The Ryzen 4000 series of desktop processors originally expected to launch at the end of 2020 will now use TSMC’s enhanced 5nm process (5nm Plus) instead of 7nm EUV, clearly demonstrating that AMD is now considered a tier-one customer for TSMC.

 

This new development confirms earlier news that TSMC, which only recently entered the 5nm era in April, is accelerating its enhanced 5nm process, bringing forward the mass production schedule to 4Q; and the enhanced 5nm Ryzen series processors will also put unprecedented pressure on Intel. Both TSMC and AMD declined to comment on rumors.

 

In the first quarter of 2020, AMD benefitted from the pandemic, which boosted demand due to the work-from-home economy. PC and server sales exceeded expectations; Ryzen and EPYC series processors shipments were strong, driving first quarter revenue up by 40% compared to the same period in 2019. Earnings were also better than market expectations.

 

Despite AMD’s conservative outlook for Q2, with revenue estimates between $1.75B and $1.95B, it is still up by 21% compared with the same period in 2019, and up 4% sequentially, still a good result despite the traditional low season for PCs and the impact of the pandemic.

 

As understood, AMD’s desktop and server shipments have strengthened across the board since the second half of 2019, and demand has exceeded market expectations. Even AMD themselves and TSMC were caught by surprise. This has led to significant improvements in AMD’s profitability. TSMC happily welcomes the growing strength of its chip customers.

 

According to sources in the semiconductor industry, AMD had announced a comprehensive partnership with TSMC for sub-7nm processes, and has also confirmed mass production schedules for 7nm, 7nm EUV, 5nm and 3nm products. However, beyond expectations, AMD’s performance took a Great Leap Forward over the last one and a half years. Board, PC and server manufacturers significantly increased their ‘weightage’ (adoption of AMD products relative to others), in part due to Intel’s chip shortages. More importantly, the partnership with TSMC resulted in drastically improved product performance and yield, as well as price competitiveness for AMD, leading to rising shipments and market share quarter after quarter.

 

In 2020, because of the huge increase in sales, AMD has been urgently chasing after TSMC to expedite orders. The size of those orders were not small, becoming the greatest fallback for TSMC, which got caught in the Huawei ban crisis, making demand and production planning extremely difficult. As a result, TSMC is also adjusting (broadening) its services for AMD, and in considering the optimum allocation of production capacity, modified the process plans for AMD’s products.

 

As understood, TSMC has entered the 5nm era since April. The enhanced version of 5nm will also enter mass production in Q4, ahead of market expectations, and the first customer to adopt it is AMD, with its new Ryzen 4000 series processors.

 

AMD’s new generation Ryzen 4000 series processor (codenamed Vermeer), originally planned to use 7nm EUV, will be unveiled around Sep-Oct, but in line with the mass production schedule of TSMC’s enhanced 5nm process, will only be launched at the end of the year or during CES in Jan 2021.

 

According to semiconductor industry players, AMD plonked down a lot of money to enter the enhanced 5nm era, hoping to build upon its success and expand its leadership in advanced process technology before Intel’s 10nm process is fully deployed and 7nm process is yet to debut, once again capitalising on the narrative around introduction of advanced process technology and performance/efficiency improvements, to narrow its market share with Intel.

 

Judging by AMD’s current momentum and product performance, the enhanced 5nm Ryzen series processors will put unprecedented pressure on Intel. If Intel does not cut prices or accelerate the introduction of 10nm desktop processors, its empire may be gradually eroded by AMD, ushering in the biggest change in the global PC platform competitive landscape in 15 years: AMD’s market share can be expected to reach historical highs.

 

Separately, Nvidia has finally joined the 7nm bandwagon recently, entering full production in the second half of the year, while 5nm capacity continues to be reserved for Apple and HiSilicon, although the status of HiSilicon’s orders after Q4 is unknown due to the heightened US ban on Huawei.

 

Well if this true, would leave Intel in the dust... 

14nm anyone? 😅

 

 

Source 1: Guru3d (Roadmap, some extra bit about new CCX design)

Source 2: Techarp.com (translation of Digitimes article)

Source 3: Digitimes (original article) (requires subscription to view)


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Doesn't seem too likely to me, making that switch would require year long lead times as you can't just switch nodes out so easily and not have to make significant changes to the product design. Maybe a mid generation Zen 3 refinement is being worked on and will use 5nm+ and also be used as a basis for Zen 4 design optimization but I find even this unlikely.

 

Are there even enough 5nm+ facilities, would there be enough in time. Is there really that much demand and existing allocation of 7nm to even consider this?

 

Not a bet I'd put money on that's for sure.

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not happening for sure Zen 3 must be in production right now to stock up for launch they can not wait for Q4 to have 5nm ready for mass production.

It would however be a perfect timing to make Zen 4 based on 5nm

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12 minutes ago, leadeater said:

Doesn't seem too likely to me, making that switch would require year long lead times as you can't just switch nodes out so easily and not have to make significant changes to the product design. Maybe a mid generation Zen 3 refinement is being worked on and will use 5nm+ and also be used as a basis for Zen 4 design optimization but I find even this unlikely.

 

Are there even enough 5nm+ facilities, would there be enough in time. Is there really that much demand and existing allocation of 7nm to even consider this?

 

Not a bet I'd put money on that's for sure.

Yeah, and Lisa Su kinda implied this wasn't going to be happening. https://www.tomshardware.com/news/amd-ryzen-4000-cpus-tsmc-5nm-questionable

Quote

At today's Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference AMD CEO Lisa Su responded to a question about the report, saying, "I think 5nm is an important node, and one that we will use quite heavily in our roadmap. I'm not ready to talk about timing yet, but I will say that Zen 4 is deep in design, and we are very collaborative with TSMC. The way to think about it is, the process nodes usually start with mobile, and mobile is usually a simpler process from the standpoint of the performance it is trying to get. [..] 5nm will be important for Zen 4, as well as our GPU roadmap, will be using 5nm, but we'll talk about timing as we get a little bit closer." 

Su did not explicitly state that 5nm wouldn't come to its Zen 3 designs, but her statement implies that AMD will continue to execute on its public roadmap that places the 5nm debut with the Zen 4 architecture.

 


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53 minutes ago, leadeater said:

Doesn't seem too likely to me, making that switch would require year long lead times as you can't just switch nodes out so easily and not have to make significant changes to the product design. Maybe a mid generation Zen 3 refinement is being worked on and will use 5nm+ and also be used as a basis for Zen 4 design optimization but I find even this unlikely.

 

Are there even enough 5nm+ facilities, would there be enough in time. Is there really that much demand and existing allocation of 7nm to even consider this?

 

Not a bet I'd put money on that's for sure.

We're fairly certain they got something wrong. The report is real and in DigiTimes, but Zen3 Ryzen 4000 desktop parts are still happening in 2020. AMD has something going to 5nm early that'll eat up wafers, with the best guess being an APU of some form.

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39 minutes ago, MageTank said:

Yeah, and Lisa Su kinda implied this wasn't going to be happening. https://www.tomshardware.com/news/amd-ryzen-4000-cpus-tsmc-5nm-questionable

 

There will be Zen3 designs on 5nm. That's almost a given with how AMD handles their implementation these days. It's just Vermeer/Ryzen desktop Zen3 parts won't be.

 

The real question is what product did AMD pay for that 5nm capacity? Huawei dropped out because Geo-Politics, but AMD is going to eat up a large amount of wafers for something. It's an APU of some form, just a question of what market.

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1 hour ago, leadeater said:

Doesn't seem too likely to me, making that switch would require year long lead times as you can't just switch nodes out so easily and not have to make significant changes to the product design. Maybe a mid generation Zen 3 refinement is being worked on and will use 5nm+ and also be used as a basis for Zen 4 design optimization but I find even this unlikely.

 

Are there even enough 5nm+ facilities, would there be enough in time. Is there really that much demand and existing allocation of 7nm to even consider this?

 

Not a bet I'd put money on that's for sure.

Zen 3+ maybe? :D

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Posted · Original PosterOP

Well I personally dont think AMD would have had the time to fully redesign and nail down the earliest Zen 3 products to be on 5nm. It takes quite some time to fully test the results from TSMC to establish full functionality and mass production viability.

 

Regardless, I'm interested to see their next generation of mobile parts, and hopefully see them in AMD based NUCs in addition to laptops. I want to see how far AMD can push ultrabooks with low power "U" SKU, as well as having the highest performing "H" part in a NUC that has Thunderbolt to support external GPU.

 

Neither AMD nor TSMC has denied the claims of Zen 3 going straight to 5nm. Thus posted this thread just for the possibility. I am already very happy with how far AMD has pushed desktop processors for consumers, and no doubt that Zen 3 on 7nm+ will bring significant new improvements.

 

It'd be nice if AMD could suddenly shift focus to single core perf and just eradicate the few remaining reasons for consumers to buy Intel


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38 minutes ago, huilun02 said:

It'd be nice if AMD could suddenly shift focus to single core perf and just eradicate the few remaining reasons for consumers to buy Intel

Basing on the information of Zen 3 having 10%+ IPC gains and rumors that it will clock as high as Zen 2, AMD should be ahead in single core performance over Skylake 5.0 for the most part. Also the i5 10400 kinda proves that the single core performance doesn't really make any huge impact on the main application that Intel wins which is gaming, even though the 10400 is slower than the 3100 in single core it outperforms most AMD CPUs in gaming(on Z490 with fast memory).

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Highly, highly doubt it, if anything, they'd be using TSMC's N7+ node with EUV as we've yet to see products with that (I wonder if Apple will be the first with their A14?)


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I'd hardly doubt it though, switching a process node just like that at this time doesn't seem something that will happen. Regardless TSMC accelerating their enhanced process and having AMD as their tier-one customer.

Maybe not impossible but doesn't seem probable. 


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1 hour ago, Taf the Ghost said:

There will be Zen3 designs on 5nm. That's almost a given with how AMD handles their implementation these days. It's just Vermeer/Ryzen desktop Zen3 parts won't be.

 

The real question is what product did AMD pay for that 5nm capacity? Huawei dropped out because Geo-Politics, but AMD is going to eat up a large amount of wafers for something. It's an APU of some form, just a question of what market.

My money is going to be on a mobile APU for laptops. If Zen 3 mobile does well, demand for Zen 4 mobile is going to be through the roof. 


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On 1/2/2017 at 9:32 PM, MageTank said:

Sometimes, we all need a little inspiration.

 

 

 

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50 minutes ago, MageTank said:

My money is going to be on a mobile APU for laptops. If Zen 3 mobile does well, demand for Zen 4 mobile is going to be through the roof. 

It's almost assuredly a laptop part, but there's an outside chance Apple bought a supply of it. We'll see about that, but AMD can actually give Intel real trouble if they get to 5nm that early.

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28 minutes ago, Taf the Ghost said:

It's almost assuredly a laptop part, but there's an outside chance Apple bought a supply of it. We'll see about that, but AMD can actually give Intel real trouble if they get to 5nm that early.

Is Apple even staying x86 long enough to consider going AMD for the last generation or two of x86 Macs?


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Haven't some leaked remarks about current Ryzen 4000 engineering samples spoke about speed?  I'd imagine something about the fab would have leaked as well if they were using 5nm.  


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For bonus points, can anyone mix this rumour with the other recent one about an impending speed refresh for Zen 2?


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2 minutes ago, porina said:

For bonus points, can anyone mix this rumour with the other recent one about an impending speed refresh for Zen 2?

 

Sure,, the rumoured refresh isn't really a refresh but a rebranding of the upcoming Zen 3 ans Zen2+ and we get the 5nm parts as Zen 3 which is actually a rebranded Zen 4.

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2 minutes ago, CarlBar said:

Sure,, the rumoured refresh isn't really a refresh but a rebranding of the upcoming Zen 3 ans Zen2+ and we get the 5nm parts as Zen 3 which is actually a rebranded Zen 4.

Nice. My head hurts now trying to comprehend how AMD will number them if they did that... :D 


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So AMD is skipping the 5nm node (which is currently making mobile processors) and jumping to 5nm+?


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1 minute ago, porina said:

Nice. My head hurts now trying to comprehend how AMD will number them if they did that... :D 

 

I'd assume the Zen 2+ would eb numbered per the rumoured leaks regarding the refresh by adding a T on the end of the numeral name.

 

if they skipped APU's and Mobile stuff on 7nm+ and rushed to 5nm they could even get the APu, Mobile, and Desktop parts on the same node, which would actually make some sense.

 

I'm not convinced thats what they're doing btw, (just responding to a request to combo things), i figure GPU or just accelerated Zen 4 development myself, but it's hypothetically possibble they could pull this. Though i imagine several people around here probably have their hands on 7nm+ sample silicon and could debunk this if they weren't bound by NDA's

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3 minutes ago, williamcll said:

So AMD is skipping the 5nm node (which is currently making mobile processors) and jumping to 5nm+?

 

The rumour is AMD is skipping 7nm+ to jump straight to 5nm.

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58 minutes ago, porina said:

For bonus points, can anyone mix this rumour with the other recent one about an impending speed refresh for Zen 2?

"upcoming Zen 3 process will produce 5nm+ at 5GHz"

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I guess people are pretty bored from the slow times due to human malware and just thinking up random possibilities.  This will only make sense if AMD comes out and says XT refresh this year, Zen3 2021 and even then it would be like "hmmm...".

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1 hour ago, Jack_of_all_Trades said:

I guess people are pretty bored from the slow times due to human malware and just thinking up random possibilities.  This will only make sense if AMD comes out and says XT refresh this year, Zen3 2021 and even then it would be like "hmmm...".

 

Wouldn't wrk, remember we get desktop stuff after the server folks get their silicon, and they get it only after certain special deals groups get it who get it only after early sampling runs. The sampling runs, and possibly the first round of special deal chips should be in the wild by now. Something CPU related with an updated architecture is coming on 7nm+. But how it will be branded and weather it comes to desktop could change.

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