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wkdpaul

COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING

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3 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

Then we agree! Glad it was just miscommunication :)

 

stay safe (and I mean it!)

oh im not going to lie, i will be very very surprised if theres an outbreak in my area and i dont get it. Statistically I wont have to worry about death though.

 

Ive already sent the kids off and its just me the wife and the dog here until this is done with.

 

I got lucky with my restaurant being next to the fire department/police station. So I am staying open and they are eating here basically every day. And then I do deliveries for the hospital daily. 

 

The vast majority of the people I deal with are people who are in a profession where they are already at a high risk of getting it and cant avoid it.

 

I do have some random people come in and order and I just dont understand why they are taking the risk. And while I do feel bad if they get it and its through me. They are the ones putting themselves at that risk, not me.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Canoe said:
  • There was one study that managed to mechanically create a SARS-CoV-2 aerosol, which still held viable viruses when they ended the experiment three hours later.
    • This means aerosols of SARS-CoV-2 are plausible, not that they are occurring.
    • There is no evidence that is happening with humans, as in creating aerosols when sneezing or coughing.
    • If they are rarely occurring, they certainly are NOT driving the pandemic, or there would be significantly higher R0 rates.

But how does it reach those surfaces it remains on then? Skin oil?

Also, I'm confused about

1 hour ago, Canoe said:
    • SARS-CoV-2 aerosols have NOT been detected in patient rooms, nor on the surfaces the fine droplets in aerosols would fall onto. (I.e., where coughing/sneezing patients are frequently doing so.)

and

1 hour ago, Canoe said:
    • SARS-CoV-2 has been found on surfaces in patient rooms that are within droplet range.

being true at the same time.

Maybe I'm not understanding what "aerosol" means as a technical term in this context?

 

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A financial crisis in and of itself does not increase the death rate, in fact it lowers it significantly.  The only noted increase in deaths as a result a financial crisis is suicide among the mentally ill.   Some reports to that effect:

 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/melaniehaiken/2014/06/12/more-than-10000-suicides-tied-to-economic-crisis-study-says/#22caa0fa7ae2

https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/overview/impact-of-recessions/

https://fortune.com/2019/01/25/economic-downturn-mortality-rates/

https://www.npr.org/2018/01/09/576669311/hidden-brain-great-recession-deaths

 

 

 


QuicK and DirtY. Read the CoC it's like a guide on how not to be moron.  Also I don't have an issue with the VS series.

Sometimes I miss contractions like n't on the end of words like wouldn't, couldn't and shouldn't.    Please don't be a dick,  make allowances when reading my posts.

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It looks like some time tomorrow the city mayor will determine the time we go into "shelter in place". I'm a bit happy in a way because it'll get us closer to getting through it, but at the same time I have no clue what I'll do once I've exhausted what I can work on from home, both for monetary and "keeping busy" reasons.

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Posted · Original PosterOP

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1 hour ago, captain_to_fire said:

 

Self drawn Pictures. The Source of all Evidence. Whats with the invected dot above the "BBQ"? He/She just vanished?


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2 minutes ago, Praesi said:

Self drawn Pictures. The Source of all Evidence. Whats with the invected dot above the "BBQ"? He/She just vanished?

Example Death before infecting others?


 

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5 minutes ago, Praesi said:

Self drawn Pictures. The Source of all Evidence. Whats with the invected dot above the "BBQ"? He/She just vanished?

Either the person infected passed away and got cremated or immediately buried.


There is more that meets the eye
I see the soul that is inside

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4 minutes ago, ShrimpBrime said:

Example Death before infecting others?

I accept real Sience Data. But this Picture is just made up


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Lady customer told me she visits on average of 30 stores per week to find toilet paper. Told her to come early since the tp we do receive sells out within less than an hour. Heard a story of a guy camping out at a Costco since 3AM. Also, it’s becoming a felony for some business that decide to remain open that are not deemed essential.
 

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/03/23/coronavirus-santa-clara-county-district-attorney-prosecute-businesses-shelter-order/


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Posted (edited)
On 3/23/2020 at 6:24 PM, SpaceGhostC2C said:

But how does it reach those surfaces it remains on then? Skin oil?

Also, I'm confused about

Quote

SARS-CoV-2 aerosols have NOT been detected in patient rooms, nor on the surfaces the fine droplets in aerosols would fall onto. (I.e., where coughing/sneezing patients are frequently doing so.)

and

Quote

SARS-CoV-2 has been found on surfaces in patient rooms that are within droplet range.

being true at the same time.

Maybe I'm not understanding what "aerosol" means as a technical term in this context?

Very good questions, that all tie together. And very important given the experiment that mechanically created an aerosol with COVID-19 and SARS viruses.

 

A virus can of course, sit on a surface. But a virus doesn't need water nor oil to stick to something. They're very tiny, so a very tiny charge, even molecular attraction, is often enough for them to stay attached to a surface. That's a key way that filter material traps small particles, like airborne viruses. That's why rinsing your hands with water is largely useless (although better than doing nothing...) and washing them with soap, with some scrubbing, is necessary for the soap to disrupt and dissolve the virus envelope making it non-viable, and to get the soap into all the ridges and places on your skin (or clothes) where the viruses are.

 

An infected person gets viruses on themselves by touching or breathing (droplets) on themselves. They can then deposit viruses onto a surface by touching that surface or touching that surface with something they have already touched so it has the viruses on it. If they touch/kiss/etc. a person, that is Direct Transmission. We all expel droplets when we breath, talk, cough or sneeze. An infected person's droplets include viruses from shedding in their respiratory tract. If those droplets fall on someone and infects them, that is Droplet Transmission (the droplet/virus has passed an air gap to infect, so that is not Direct Transmission). Droplets also land on surfaces, typically within one metre - hence the ~six foot space between people for prevention of Droplet Transmission. Now that surface is contaminated and hence primed for Indirect Transmission of the infection to another person. So the questions will include how much shedding, how contaminated are the droplets, how long do they remain viable on surfaces, a few minutes, hours or days? As those will determine how much risk due to Droplet and Indirect Transmission.

 

If people sneezing or coughing can produce super fine droplets, and those are light enough to float in the air, that is an aerosol: Airborne or Aerosol Transmission. Again, the question of how long does a virus in aerosol remain viable, as that pertains to Aerosol Transmission infection risk.

 

By observation of swabs and infection rates, they determined that there was Direct Transmission, Droplet Transmission, most likely Indirect Transmission. From the shedding and viral load in the intestinal tract, they assume Fecal Transmission is highly likely.

 

Although not the first study finding this, the study's results of the COVID-19 virus remaining viable on surfaces for many hours is very important, as it is lab confirmation that the viruses can remain viable on a variety of surfaces, hence it is lab confirmation that Indirect Transmission is plausible, and on a variety of surfaces, hence in a variety of circumstances. This strongly supports the interim guidance warning of Indirect Transmission and, well, WASH FREQUENT-TOUCH SURFACES THAT PEOPLE CAN TOUCH AND THAT DROPLETS CAN FALL ONTO. (Hint - that's the takeaway.)

 

AEROSOLS

 

Viruses in super fine droplets that are airborne in an aerosol can become non-viable. The study didn't concern itself with how long they would remain viable, just that SARS-CoV-2 aerosols could exist, and the virus could remain viable in them. Therefore Airborne / Aerosol Transmission is Plausible. They did run that experiment for three hours, which is well within the risk period for medical personal performing a procedure that may result in aerosols that could infect them (like intubation where there is pressurized airflow that could create an aerosol). This has been suspected, from who got infected when, and the guidance I've seen was to use appropriate PPE. Now with those study results, they can reaffirm that.

 

Now the question is, can people produce virus aerosols in their normal activities, including sneezing and coughing. Testing air samples for aerosols of a virus is fine, but it isn't enough. A virus falls out of the aerosol, onto surfaces, or can stick to surfaces it flows against, so they may all be gone from the air (or below detectable levels) when you sample the air. You also have to sample surfaces that the virus can fall/stick onto. If you don't find the virus in aerosol but you find viruses on surfaces that are not in the patient's droplet range, then you know you had viruses in aerosol for a time. A patient in a hospital room is great for definitively testing for this, as the patient is, well, relatively captive.

 

So far known/reported, testing of COVID-19 patient rooms detected viruses on surfaces within the expected droplet range. They did not find any viruses in air samples, nor on surfaces that were out of the patient's droplet range: no present virus aerosols found and no indication of virus having been present in aerosols and dropping out onto surfaces.

 

Quote

~edit - added for completeness

In spite of the findings from monitoring patient rooms, due to other viruses going into aerosol by coughing or sneezing, for precautionary reasons (it is still realatively early in COVID-19 knowledge) it is highly recommended to sneeze into tissue and cough into tissue or your elbow. Some reports say they have no evidence to counter the patient room monitoring results, but suspect coughing or sneezing may produce finer droplets that can range beyond the one metre, a semi-aerosol, possibly out to two or even three metres before falling to the ground or shortly dropping out of aerosol. 

 

The next question is that of airborne/aerosols from diarrhea. Go back and read what I posted on that. The evidence of COVID-19 viruses in aerosol is weak (one unpublished study), but given the known intestinal load of the COVID-19 virus, and the range some diarrhea droplets can disperse (200 m), and that some COVID-19 patients present with diarrhea (6%?), there is some concern.

 

I hope that makes it clearer.

 

Edited by Canoe
forgot to include info on possible sneezing/coughing semi-aerosols
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Relative size, global distribution of Confirmed cases.

Accelerating?

From the 1st to the 3rd, call it a month.

From the 3rd to the 4th, five days.

I have the feeling that I'm really not going to like the size on April 18th.

 

1870284846_COVID-19GlobalDistributionFeb18toMarch232020.thumb.png.958e25951ba7379a1bd07076f0bed48f.png

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1 hour ago, Praesi said:

Self drawn Pictures. The Source of all Evidence. Whats with the invected dot above the "BBQ"? He/She just vanished?

If it wasn't there it would be an inaccurate representation of the infection rate. Not every infected person spreads the disease to several others as there is an element of chance (more accurately a finite probability) in transmission, otherwise the R0 would be infinite and we'd all have it already.

 

1 hour ago, Praesi said:

I accept real Sience Data. But this Picture is just made up

It's actually a very accurate representation of infection curve from an R0  value slightly higher or lower than 2.    As it's only purpose is to illustrate the importance of social distancing I don't see why there is a need to be excessively picky.

 

 

 

 


QuicK and DirtY. Read the CoC it's like a guide on how not to be moron.  Also I don't have an issue with the VS series.

Sometimes I miss contractions like n't on the end of words like wouldn't, couldn't and shouldn't.    Please don't be a dick,  make allowances when reading my posts.

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Just heard from a hospital director (Prevent Seniors Sancta Maggiore, the most affected one from São Paulo) saying that the hydroxicloroquine+azythromicine treatment is working really well.

 

They started treating people on last Thursday, and said the lung inflammation of patients drastically reduced, dozens of patients were already released from the ICU in the last two days (including the mother of the hospital owners) and nobody died (there were 5 in the last week).

 

Link to the interview (in Portuguese)

https://youtu.be/iTGOpF6UMTQ

 

 

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WHERE IS THE DAM CURE!? My parents are dying over here from staying home with monthly bills about to put us into bankruptcy.

 

We are not afraid of this virus, but we are afraid of no cure.

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1 hour ago, gabrielcarvfer said:

Just heard from a hospital director (Prevent Seniors Sancta Maggiore, the most affected one from São Paulo) saying that the hydroxicloroquine+azythromicine treatment is working really well.

 

They started treating people on last Thursday, and said the lung inflammation of patients drastically reduced, dozens of patients were already released from the ICU in the last two days (including the mother of the hospital owners) and nobody died (there were 5 in the last week).

 

Link to the interview (in Portuguese)

https://youtu.be/iTGOpF6UMTQ

 

 

One of the science pages I consequently now don't follow was mocking people for getting excited about those drugs possibly being a good treatment.  It really saddens me when strong advocates for the scientific method become blinkered and do more harm than good.


QuicK and DirtY. Read the CoC it's like a guide on how not to be moron.  Also I don't have an issue with the VS series.

Sometimes I miss contractions like n't on the end of words like wouldn't, couldn't and shouldn't.    Please don't be a dick,  make allowances when reading my posts.

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This is why we can’t have nice things.

 

San Diego closed its beaches, parks, boardwalks and trails on Monday after those areas were crowded on the weekend despite social distancing orders to prevent the spread of coronavirus. Officials said they will ask anyone in violation to leave, and issue a misdemeanor citation if a person refuses.

 

https://timesofsandiego.com/politics/2020/03/23/san-diego-closes-parks-beaches-and-trails-to-prevent-spread-of-coronavirus/


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Heres an interesting thought...

 

Businesses around the globe are all changing their output to medical supplies in order to help out the entire world. The US officially offered one of its normally largest enemies medical help. China is sending doctors & nurses and medical supplies to Europe and Africa. Here in the UK the entire might of the Formula 1 motor racing league have all banded together to try and develop a more efficient ventilator. Ford & GM, Nissan, Tesla, Caterpillar, JCB and many others are right now spending millions of their own cash to try and help everyone. Retired medical staff are selflessly putting themselves at risk, knowing they fall into the high risk band I should add, by offering to return to work.

 

Have a single one of the medical mega corporations offered to lower the cost of essential drugs? Maybe even give them away to poorer countries?

 

Seems like while 99% of the rest of the world are offering much needed charity the people who could make the biggest difference are happy to keep overcharging for something that is very essential.


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1 hour ago, Way2Broke said:

WHERE IS THE DAM CURE!? My parents are dying over here from staying home with monthly bills about to put us into bankruptcy.

 

We are not afraid of this virus, but we are afraid of no cure.

I'm sorry to hear that...

 

Stay strong ❤️


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2 hours ago, gabrielcarvfer said:

Just heard from a hospital director (Prevent Seniors Sancta Maggiore, the most affected one from São Paulo) saying that the hydroxicloroquine+azythromicine treatment is working really well.

 

They started treating people on last Thursday, and said the lung inflammation of patients drastically reduced, dozens of patients were already released from the ICU in the last two days (including the mother of the hospital owners) and nobody died (there were 5 in the last week).

 

Link to the interview (in Portuguese)

https://youtu.be/iTGOpF6UMTQ

 

 

News of certain drugs that help is leading to dangerous shortages.

 

 


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5 hours ago, mr moose said:

One of the science pages I consequently now don't follow was mocking people for getting excited about those drugs possibly being a good treatment.  It really saddens me when strong advocates for the scientific method become blinkered and do more harm than good.

There are a number of drugs identified for investigation.

But this sounds familiar. Did that site mock people for getting excited, or mock them for getting excited about a particular study that has been highly criticized, including for:

  • an extremely small sample size
  • cherry picking participants, including
    • Main concerns were unequal patient inclusion in treatment vs. non-treatment group (mean age 51 vs. 37), indicating inclusion at different disease stages.
    • They stated they only included patients over age 12, but there were two 10 yo in the supplemental data.
  • started with 26 people
    • results presented as percentages, not numbers - hides the low sample size
    • 20 appeared to have good results - their results were reported
    • two were lost to the trial
    • 4 of the remaining 24 worsened, went to ICU and one died
      • so they left those four out of the results
      • That's one in six worsened - was harm done?
      • One died - was harm done?
      • numbers look a lot better if you leave those out
      • standard guidance for those meds:
        • Co-adminstration should be avoided. EKG changes that could lead to cardiac arrhythmias.
      • One infected doctor subsequently tried their recommended treatment on himself. He got worse on the second day and is now in MICU.
  • most of the controls had viral load qualitatively detected or the PCR was not done. Only 4 out of 16 controls had a proper measure of the viral load.
    • Without valid controls, there is no reliable indication of the 20 remaining cherry picked patients in the trial doing better, the same or worse than the controls.
  • Study had false negatives in its results.
  • "recovery" was based on virus amount in throat swabs.
    • However, this might not correlate well with virus load in lungs or clinical recovery.
    • Really, with or w/o this paper we are none the wiser.
  • Also note three other red flags:
    1. The paper was submitted on March 16, accepted on March 17. Peer review <1 day.
    2. One of the authors is Editor in Chief of the journal in which it was published
    3. Time from ethical approval to submitted paper is shorter than described study.

That study/trial doesn't begin to meet the standards of a modern medical trial. While somewhat interesting, it cannot be relied upon. This doesn't take away those med's potential, but the study does not add any reliable information to the story.

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