corona virus

[Canoe]

19 minutes ago, Xvaster said:

Another dumb question:

The people that are quarantined on their own home, or anyway in facilities that are not "certificated" don't they risk to spread it to whorever is close to him, like neighbours or whatever?

NOT a dumb question. A very good question.

From early on, the CDC has had guidelines on providing home care to one known/suspected to be infected.

When I looked at it (weeks ago now), it included having them in their own room and using their own bathroom if the accomodations exist. Also, a single person should be designated to be the one providing them with care. I'd expect there have been updates to what I read back then. Go find it, and post a summary and the current link back here!

[greenhorn]

1 hour ago, Cora_Lie said:

The craziness as reached my country...

[...]

Several like that empty... We have 1 confirmed...

Crazy...

Fortunately, this is not happening in my country yet even though we have several confirmed cases and even deaths.

[Canoe]

The Total Deaths Projection can't predict how many will get sick.

The death projection is for those who are detected as sick already.

 

 

Edited March 4, 2020 by Canoe
error in x axis labels

[Lii]

5 minutes ago, Canoe said:

NOT a dumb question. A very good question.

From early on, the CDC has had guidelines on providing home care to one known/suspected to be infected.

When I looked at it (weeks ago now), it included having them in their own room and using their own bathroom if the accomodations exist. Also, a single person should be designated to be the one providing them with care. I'd expect there have been updates to what I read back then. Go find it, and post a summary and the current link back here!

To be frank I'm scared af 

Anyway do you have any link? When I searched some data, I literally wasted days do find just copy and paste news from medias

[Canoe]

8 minutes ago, Xvaster said:

To be frank I'm scared af ...

Then replace that with knowledge. Google "CDC", find the site, and follow it to the home care.

 

[spartaman64]

NBC News: 'We simply do not understand why': Coronavirus is sparing children, puzzling experts.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/we-simply-do-not-understand-why-coronavirus-sparing-children-puzzling-n1147951?cid=googlenews-usnews

[Guest]

And there you have it... The next step...

 

India is retaining medicine for themselves and the other countries, depending on them, will soon be in serious shortage!

 

Quote

India curbs medicine exports, affecting supplies worldwide.

In response to the epidemic, the government of India on Tuesday curbed exports of 26 drugs and drug ingredients, including a wide range of antibiotics and certain vitamins, meaning that the new coronavirus could soon have ripple effects on people worldwide with other ailments.

The world relies heavily on India’s huge pharmaceutical industry for generic drugs, but Indian officials are concerned about safeguarding the supply for their own country.

Indian drug makers depend on Chinese factories for key drug ingredients, particularly for antibiotics and vitamins. The Covid-19 outbreak in China and quarantine of Hubei province, where much of the production is centered, has severely hampered China’s ability to produce those ingredients.

 

Although Indian companies had stockpiled extra ingredients ahead of the annual Lunar New Year holiday, those reserves are now running low.

It’s unclear whether India’s exports of the specified drugs will be completely stopped. The government’s order said that exports of the drugs are restricted, which means a government permit is required before they can be shipped out of the country.

The antibiotics facing export limits are tinidazole, metronidazole, chloramphenicol, erythromycin salts, neomycin, clindamycin salts and ornidazole.

Other drugs on the restricted list include the painkiller acetaminophen, the hormone progesterone, the antiviral drug aciclovir, and the vitamins B1, B6 and B12.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/03/world/coronavirus-live-news-updates.html

I'll let you imagine the consequences for those who need this medicine.

 

And more here : https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/03/business/coronavirus-india-drugs.html

[PhantomJaguarr]

The norm topic at work is where else to buy sanitizer. I felt bad for an office worker at a local school. They were wondering what are they supposed to do if the school will close unlike teachers who will continue to teach online. I heard Florida has ordered 200,000 laptops to be brought in for students to teach from home. In comparison feels like my community is unprepared to be honest. 
 

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/education/article240664546.html

[Donut417]

18 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

I'll let you imagine the consequences for those who need this medicine.

Just proves to the world that you cant rely on one country to make all the shit. I have a feeling after this is all said and done that there will be changes in how many companies deal with manufacturing. Because these consequences are being felt in pretty much every industry. 

[Canoe]

For those in the U.S., here's the CSSE data

 

lists six deaths in King County, WA

one death in Snohomish County, WA

 

for Confirmed

 

Berkeley, CA	1
Boston, MA	1
Cook County, IL	4
Fulton County, GA	2
Grafton County, NH	2
Hillsborough, FL	2
Humboldt County, CA	1
King County, WA	21
Los Angeles, CA	1
Madison, WI	1
Maricopa County, AZ	1
New York City, NY	1
Norfolk County, MA	1
Orange, CA	1
Placer County, CA	1
Providence, RI	2
Sacramento County, CA	2
San Antonio, TX	1
San Benito, CA	2
San Diego County, CA	2
San Mateo, CA	2
Santa Clara, CA	11
Sarasota, FL	1
Snohomish County, WA	6
Sonoma County, CA	1
Tempe, AZ	1
Umatilla, OR	1
Wake County, NC	1
Washington County, OR	2
Westchester County, NY	1
DiamondPrincess	45
	122

***

 

I thought I'd posted the final graphs for March 3 ending UTC, but I guess not.

 

 

***

[SpikeSpiegel]

6 hours ago, Cora_Lie said:

The craziness as reached my country...

 

 

Several like that empty... We have 1 confirmed...

Crazy...

We're low on bottled water, paper towels, toilet paper, masks, and rubber gloves atm.

[Blademaster91]

Yeah Costco and Walmart were both low on toilet paper, and really low on disinfectant spray and wipes. Canned goods seemed low, and I couldn't find any hand sanitizer in either store.

[SpikeSpiegel]

15 minutes ago, Blademaster91 said:

Yeah Costco and Walmart were both low on toilet paper, and really low on disinfectant spray and wipes. Canned goods seemed low, and I couldn't find any hand sanitizer in either store.

Our dollar store has tons of hand sanitizers, tissues, and other paper goods.

 

However Aldi's is well stocked atm on paper goods and bottled water was half of a pallet.  I bought 5 cases of bottled water today and yesterday.  However Costco and Sam's Club was out of bottle water.  And our local Kroger was out of paper goods.

[Canoe]

Places are getting hit and emptied all over, the way Burning Man hits Reno each year.

 

***

 

South Korea is up to 5,328 over their night.

136,707 tests:

• 5,328 Confirmed
• 102,965 negative
• 28,414 waiting results

 

 

***

 

For those of you who may care about exact numbers in Italy, I'd suggest you use their web site.

http://www.salute.gov.it/nuovocoronavirus

http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto

 

I'd been wondering why other sites seemed to be showing a Confirmed higher than what I got from the three numbers.

Thurns out you had to add the three together.

Press conference of the Head of Civil Protection Angelo Borrelli at 6 pm on March 2:
     2036 people who contracted the virus included 1835 positive, 52 died and 149 recovered.
Among the 1835 positives:
     927 are found in home isolation
     742 hospitalized with symptoms
     166 in intensive care

 

Today, it appears they changed to matching what is usually done, the first number being the total Confirmed.

Some sites, like CSSE, added them together for March 3 for Italy. I don't know which is the error.

 

Who knows what we'll get for March 4.

18 hours ago, Canoe said:

Italy reported again

 

Conferenza stampa del Capo della protezione civile Angelo Borrelli alle ore 18 del 3 marzo:

• 2263 le persone che hanno contratto il virus, 79  deceduti e 160 guariti.

Tra i 2263positivi:

• 1000 si trovano in isolamento domiciliare 
• 1034 ricoverati con sintomi
• 229 in terapia intensiva

 

With some others, External to mainland China is up to 12,407.

 

 

 

[PhantomJaguarr]

And I had a customer today who coughed in my face ..

 

 

Meanwhile I needed to restock on toilet paper and ended up panic buying more than I needed ..

[Canoe]

24 minutes ago, PhantomJaguar77 said:

And I had a customer today who coughed in my face ..

eww

 

24 minutes ago, PhantomJaguar77 said:

Meanwhile I needed to restock on toilet paper and ended up panic buying more than I needed ..

Well, you will eventually use it. And for now, that wall is very well insulated...

[dizmo]

10 hours ago, Tony Tony Chopper said:

Countries without cases right now or those that do not take it seriously enough.

Except, no, not at all. It's like having the normal flu, with a pneumonia aspect if you're weakened...so really not that different.

Congrats on fear mongering.

10 hours ago, Canoe said:

This!

CDC numbers show 32 million Americans have caught the flu already this season...

And that's with ____ number of them having taken the vaccine.

So how many will/can follow the standard flu precautions.

Exactly. Plus something like 370,000 hospitalizations. COVID19 isn't going to overwhelm the healthcare system unless they for some reason decide that everyone that gets it needs to be contained in a hospital. Otherwise, send them home, have them avoid human contact, and you're fine.

8 hours ago, Tony Tony Chopper said:

The danger comes from when there so many cases that hospitals cannot handle more patients anymore, that is when the amount of death's go up, so that you have nothing to worry about is BS, we are all potentially in danger especially older people and sick people, they just closed a third hospital in Netherlands a corona patient was in hospital since friday and has been diagnosed 2 hours ago in the intensive care.

This is why its so important to test everyone, not just those that been on vacation in italy or china etc

Not every single person that gets it needs to be hospitalized. It's actually quite the opposite, and most can be sent home to recover on their own. It sounds more like your government is harsh overreacting. There's no need to close entire hospitals.

8 hours ago, PhantomJaguar77 said:

And even if I get the virus, I’m young and healthy enough, but I have a lot of elderly customers. Some with underlying conditions I could tell. It’d be my public duty to self-isolate to not infect others. Even then I could be asymptomatic and it’s been apparent that the virus can still spread at that stage. That’s the scary part. It’s what happened in Washington State most likely.

Really, if you get sick, you shouldn't be going to work at all. The flu can do the same thing, so it's not really any worse.

7 hours ago, Canoe said:

So far best known: during the asymptomatic incubation period, virus shredding starts occurring, and at some point you would become contagious.

No need to self-isolate. Consult the CDC site on proper prevention.

• Last I saw, you'd need to wear a surgical mask so you weren't expelling droplets while you talked.
  • Preferably the same for your clients, but they may not take to that and you may not be able to obtain enough masks for all your clients. Alternately, you'd have to treat your clothes that their expelled droplets may have fallen on. Again, consult the CDC site on how to safely remove and wash clothes you believe may be contaminated.
  • This isn't Ebola. It's like the flu, only a greater likelihood of severe consequences.
• Wash your hands before & after each client.
• Also between clients, clean surfaces you and your clients are touching, even if no one touched them, as they may have been expelling droplets on such surfaces and they will remain viable for a time, with some documentation suggesting up to nine days.
• Bleach and other disinfectants can be hard on the lungs, or the nose. Check up on hydrogen peroxide based disinfectants.
  • Concentration Matters: do not guess.
    • Either it won't work, or you could be doing harm.
  • The last time I saw application instructions for such (at an institution that included a day care), the cleaner was applying it nightly to all "touch" surfaces (door knobs, counters, hand rails, floors kids played on, etc.), such that they were wet for ten minutes, to allow for enough time for its action to occur. I checked up on him a few times, and boy was he diligent at being completely thorough.
• Remember that once you've worn a mask (and clean your hands before putting it on), you have to consider the mask contaminated.

No, he shouldn't be at work at all if he's sick. Surgical masks should be left for the people that actually need them (aka not your average Joe).

[Canoe]

4 minutes ago, dizmo said:

No, he shouldn't be at work at all if he's sick. Surgical masks should be left for the people that actually need them (aka not your average Joe).

That's not for when he's sick.

It's for continuing to see elderly clients, while he's concerned about cross contamination with those in incubation being contagious. 

 

[Canoe]

57 minutes ago, dizmo said:

Plus something like 370,000 hospitalizations. COVID19 isn't going to overwhelm the healthcare system unless they for some reason decide that everyone that gets it needs to be contained in a hospital. Otherwise, send them home, have them avoid human contact, and you're fine.

Not every single person that gets it needs to be hospitalized. It's actually quite the opposite, and most can be sent home to recover on their own. It sounds more like your government is harsh overreacting. There's no need to close entire hospitals.

...

The CFR the researchers are using is 0.1 for flu and 2.0 for Covid-19. Twenty times more fatal.

And it's more contagious.

The ballpark figure is 20% of Confirmed will become Severe, of which some will become Critical. For 18% of Severe, they are expected to succumb.

 

Unless people get onboard with proper prevention, those numbers could get rather nasty. There's enough people over-reacting. We'll find out if that motivates them to educate themselves properly and follow the prevention guidelines.

 

From the WHO report based on 72K+ cases.

As it says, look at the proportion of the height of the boxes and the hight of the start of the arrows to get an idea of the outcome, Recovery or Death, for each class of severity.

Severe includes needing intubation and gets more intensive.

Hospitalized won't be the 370K of 32 million of the flu.

Covid19 hospitalized will be Severe and Critical, plus the height of the red in Moderate and Mild - if you get them in time.

 

 

What we do have, is as the report notes, care evolved over the course of the outbreak. Later cases, hence the rest of the world, will benefit from what was learnt.

 

Report of the WHO - China Joint Mission

on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) 16-24 February 2020

 

[Guest]

Thought that this information could be of some interest/value to some: https://www.lbc.co.uk/hot-topics/coronavirus/why-its-more-than-just-another-flu-virus/

 

Some interesting information, if you keep in mind that this is from the CCDC, so "doctored numbers":

 

Quote

Who is most at risk from dying from coronavirus?

The majority of people who contract coronavirus make a full recovery. However, the elderly and infirm are most at risk from the virus.

Interestingly, children don't seem to show symptoms from Covid-19 and there are no known cases of children under 10 being ill with the virus. However, they could spread it to adults, which could make them ill.

According to the latest data from the China Centre for Disease Control, he mortality rate at different ages is:
Age 10-50: 0.3%
Age 51-60: 1.3%
Age 61-70: 3.6%
Age 71-80: 8.0%
Age 81-90: 14.8%

 

Quote

What are the symptoms of coronavirus?

The symptoms are similar to a common cold, including:
- a runny nose
- headache
- cough
- fever
- shortness of breath
- chills
- body aches

In most cases, you won't know whether you have a Coronavirus or a different cold-causing virus, such as rhinovirus.

Some other websites add also diarrhea as a symptom...

 

So... With these symptomes how to make the difference between a cold, the flu, a gastrite and a sinusite?

Does that mean that they'll test everyone who presents some of these symtoms? All of these symptoms?

 

What an headache... *sigh*

[Canoe]

The report phrases that this way
 

Quote

Symptoms of COVID-19 are non-specific and the disease presentation can range from no symptoms (asymptomatic) to severe pneumonia and death.

As of 20 February 2020 and based on 55924 laboratory confirmed cases, typical signs and symptoms include: fever (87.9%), dry cough (67.7%), fatigue (38.1%), sputum production (33.4%), shortness of breath (18.6%), sore throat (13.9%), headache (13.6%), myalgia or arthralgia (14.8%), chills (11.4%), nausea or vomiting (5.0%), nasal congestion (4.8%), diarrhea (3.7%), and hemoptysis (0.9%), and conjunctival congestion (0.8%).

 

[Canoe]

27 minutes ago, Canoe said:

...The ballpark figure is 20% of Confirmed will become Severe, of which some will become Critical. For 18% of Severe, they are expected to succumb.

...

What we do have, is as the report notes, care evolved over the course of the outbreak. Later cases, hence the rest of the world, will benefit from what was learnt.

The numbers in the WHO report match the 20% figure above.

They are not materially different from the 18% figure above.

(those ballpark/guideline figures were from ~January cases)

These were for cases to February 20, 2020.

There were improvements noted towards the end of that period.

Things were learnt and improved upon since then. Numbers unknown.

Researchers are learning more each day.

 

Which is why there is such keen interest in the numbers for those classifications arising from South Korea and Italy, and elsewhere.

[silicon_lottery]

That spike in South Korea... it doesn't even seem real.

[Deli]

"China has one of the biggest militaries in the world -- but none of its personnel have been infected with coronavirus, according to a senior member of the People's Liberation Army."

 

Any sane person will believe this BS?

[Canoe]

50 minutes ago, Deli said:

"China has one of the biggest militaries in the world -- but none of its personnel have been infected with coronavirus, according to a senior member of the People's Liberation Army."

Any sane person will believe this BS?

Would you in his position say anything different?

A nation's army must be cable of defending.