corona virus

[WkdPaul]

Just heard report in the radio mentioning that WHO is starting to get worried about confirmed case that apparently had no contacts with other confirmed cases, so it's looking like some people are completely asymptomatic and were confirmed clear are going around, or there's a infection vector someone missed somewhere.

Edited February 23, 2020 by wkdpaul
Damn autocorrect

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

Just heard report in the radio mentioning that WHO is starting to get worried about confirmed case that apparently had no contacts with other confirmed cases, so it's looking like some people are completely asymptomatic and were confirmed clear are going around, or there's a infection vector someone missed somewhere.

Yes... These facts have been mentioned here several times on this thread...

Like letting some people off a ship and getting them on a plane saying it's "all right"!

 

Or, as in Iran, Some of the cluster absolutely not related to anyone, BUT, later, they say that there is a huge community of Chinese workers near one of the cities.

 

[PhantomJaguarr]

I didn’t know about this until I saw a YouTube comment and doesn’t show up in google at all until I put “200” as part of the string.

 

Quote

More than 200 people in San Diego County are currently being monitored over novel coronavirus concerns, county health officials said Friday. The 204 people under county supervision include those deemed at risk of having been exposed to the virus due to close contact with confirmed cases or because of travel to China in the past 14 days, the county said.

Those individuals are monitoring their health under the supervision of county health officials.

 

 

https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/san-diego-county-monitoring-200-people-over-coronavirus-concerns
 

I also talked with someone who works in one of the facilities next to UCSD Medical Center where infected patients are being treated. The people working from Town Hall say there’s nothing to be worried about because the flu was deemed more dangerous. But our county has declared an extended State of Emergency. Plus look at the reaction in South Korea and also Italy at this point.

[Canoe]

4 hours ago, PhantomJaguar77 said:

... https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/san-diego-county-monitoring-200-people-over-coronavirus-concerns ...

And at least one U.S. west coast lawsuit over NIMBY for Covid quarantine.

 

I may have missed someone else posting this, but Itally has moved up to 155 Confirmed.

[Guest]

LOL !!!   I've just noticed that... The "bullet train" going from Bruxelles (Belgium) to Milano (Italy) through Luxembourg (Luxembourg) and Strasbourg (France) is cancelled.

 

It's the only train that is directly linking the 3 administrative capital cities of the EEC (Bruxelles-Luxembourg-Strasbourg) down to Milano through Switzerland.

It has been replaced by other trains that stop either at Strasbourg or at Basel (Switzerland).

[Lii]

Besides the fact of quarantine is good only on the paper, because there aren't actually any good ways to isolate a country/cities or whatever 

 

Also the controls that they place on mainstream ways, what are supposed to be? Orther than checking the provenance or the body temperature? If they check only the body temperature or look for symptoms, to me seems pretty inefective, especially if you take in account the long periods of incubation, but dunno idk

[Canoe]

South Korea up to 763 Confirmed.

https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030&act=view&list_no=366323&tag=&nPage=1

 

Diamond Princess is 691.

[greenmax]

North Korea, no one knows!

[Canoe]

4 minutes ago, greenmax said:

North Korea, no one knows!

Anywhere in the world, no one knows.

 

From the latest from KCDC

 

[greenmax]

How many are walking free having the virus to spread, makes one wonder.

[Guest]

18 minutes ago, greenmax said:

How many are walking free having the virus to spread, makes one wonder.

I'm waiting for the numbers for Africa and India to be finally presented.

 

It is simply impossible that there are none or only 3... Not with the R0 as it is for the SARS-CoV-2!

We have now 4 country as an example (not counting China).

So after 2 months, to see no case in whole Africa is simply not possible with their current health system and the big chinese community on that continent.

[Canoe]

A lot of countries not credibly quiet.

I fear what will turn up in Africa will make the South Korean outbreak look like a walk in the park. There's a wide range of climate in Africa, dry to wet. No telling how that will affect transmission, particularity with virus viability on surfaces.

 

***

 

Feb 23

It appears that the CNHC data wasn't out in time to include in the daily from CSSE. I had difficulty getting the CNHC site to load, and the Feb 23 update only showed up recently. Updating the CSSE with CNHC for Hubei, and numbers look very close.

 

 

***

 

 

 

[spartaman64]

 

[PhantomJaguarr]

Another American city blocks the federal government attempts to move infected patients  at a local facility.

Plans to move American coronavirus patients to an Alabama facility were canceled Sunday after local officials and residents expressed concerns.

 

Although the federal government assured the Calhoun County Emergency Management Agency that the coronavirus patients would be isolated in the Anniston FEMA facility and that they would pose no threat to residents, local officials said they were concerned and upset they weren't given more notice.

 

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/feds-backtrack-transfer-quarantined-coronavirus-patients-alabama/story?id=69162771

 

 

[Canoe]

 

 

 

 

***

 

On 2/23/2020 at 5:04 PM, wkdpaul said:

... WHO is starting to get worried about confirmed case that apparently had no contacts with other confirmed cases, so it's looking like some people are completely asymptomatic and were confirmed clear are going around, or there's a infection vector someone missed somewhere.

Asymptomatic carrier transmission is pretty much assured now (although I haven't seen it considered "proven"): at some point during incubation, while Confirmed, and is suspected in some cases after Recovered (and with some shedding observed). What seems to be getting people concerned, is like at least one case in Italy, where there's no known connection to a known carrier or cluster. If they can't find a connection to a known cluster, that would strongly suggest the disease is seeded and spreading around undetected.

Edited February 24, 2020 by Canoe
label errors, changed axis placement

[Canoe]

56 minutes ago, spartaman64 said:

Chubbyemu's video

I have than channel saved in bookmarks, but it fell from my notice sometime in the past six months. Thanks for the reminder. Put in on my Regular list. The case histories are rather interesting.

 

Some on linustechtips may find this one relevant

A Man Played Video Games Nonstop for 73 Hours. This Is How His Organs Shut Down.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VY-k_YVkRKs

[Canoe]

p.s.

Outside of Mainland China and the Diamond Princess, the globe has at least 1,500 Confirmed cases.

 

[Andreas Lilja]

37 minutes ago, Canoe said:

I have than channel saved in bookmarks, but it fell from my notice sometime in the past six months. Thanks for the reminder. Put in on my Regular list. The case histories are rather interesting.

 

Some on linustechtips may find this one relevant

A Man Played Video Games Nonstop for 73 Hours. This Is How His Organs Shut Down.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VY-k_YVkRKs

Isn't the record for time awake like 10+ days? 

[Canoe]

On 2/24/2020 at 7:38 AM, Canoe said:

p.s. Outside of Mainland China and the Diamond Princess, the globe has at least 1,500 Confirmed cases.

Well that didn't last long.

Over 1,675 1,690 Confirmed cases.

 

833 in South Korea

Queue for masks

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-51609712/coronavirus-drone-captures-massive-queue-for-masks-in-south-korea

 

"debate" in Iran over case count.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51614920

 

Italy at 165.

Cases reported in Iraq, Afghanistan, Kuwait and Bahrain.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51611422

 

The virus continued its spread in the Middle East, with Kuwait reporting three cases and Bahrain one, according to their respective state-run news agencies. The infections in Kuwait were linked to people returning from the Muslim pilgrim site of Mashhad, in Iran.

 

 

North Korea reports no cases, but quarantines foreigners.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51609360

 

***

 

 

 

***

 

On 2/23/2020 at 5:04 PM, wkdpaul said:

... confirmed case that apparently had no contacts with other confirmed cases, so it's looking like some people are completely asymptomatic and were confirmed clear are going around ...

On 2/24/2020 at 7:24 AM, Canoe said:

 ... at least one case in Italy, where there's no known connection to a known carrier or cluster. ...

 

 

Quote

The bulk of the cases (167) are in the northern region of Lombardy, whose capital is the city of Milan. Borrelli added that one person had recovered and that 91 people with the virus were currently in isolation at home. Officials have yet to track down the first carrier of the virus in the country. "We still cannot identify patient zero, so it's difficult to forecast possible new cases," Borrelli said at an earlier press conference.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/23/europe/italy-novel-coronavirus-spike-intl/index.html

 

But they found a connection with this case.

Quote

A postmortem performed on a 77-year-old woman in Lombardy on Saturday confirmed that she was also infected, but it is unclear if the virus caused her death. The woman is reported to have been recovering from pneumonia and had visited the emergency unit of a hospital in Codogno, near Lodi, a few hours after the first man confirmed to have contracted the disease, a 38-year-old, had passed through.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/23/italy-draconian-measures-effort-halt-coronavirus-outbreak-spread

Quote

• Austria suspended train services over the Alps to Italy for about four hours late on Sunday before restarting them after two travellers tested negative for coronavirus. A train carrying about 300 passengers from Venice, Italy, to Munich in Germany was halted on the Italian side of the Brenner Pass before being allowed to continue its journey after the two tested negative, authorities said.
• “Unfortunately, the person who was considered to be ‘patient zero’ was not,” said Attilio Fontana, the president of Lombardy. “We need to look elsewhere. We are following two hypotheses, and we will try to understand if one of the two is correct.” The 38-year-old recently took part in a number of races. His pregnant wife is also infected, as is a person who went running with him. Three other cases in Lombardy are elderly people who frequented a bar in Codogno owned by the father of the man who went running with the 38-year-old.

 

Quote

• There are 219 confirmed coronavirus cases in Italy, emergency commissioner Angelo Borrelli said.
• Italians stuck on plane
• an Alitalia flight that is being held at Mauritius airport. The Alitalia flight departed from Fiumicino Sunday evening. Some passengers coming from the northern Italian regions of Lombardy and Veneto, where an outbreak is under way, have been prevented from disembarking.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-23/hong-kong-hit-by-tsunami-italy-cancels-carnival-virus-update

[Guest]

WHO just finished their daily update on Coronavirus.

 

 

They started by saying that they didn't have a lot of time and that the press conference would be very quick. Not too many question and not too complicated questions.

 

On one hand they repeated several times that now is the time to prepare for treatment, triage and cooperation between the countries. It's time to support the countries with a weak health care system (Africa, among others as the DG was present at the Emergency Meeting on the Coronavirus Disease Outbreak on Feb. 22nd.

On the other hand, they refused also to answer some of the questions saying that they didn't have time today and that tomorrow a member of their team is going to make a press conference from Geneva ( --> Headquarters).

 

The worrying thing is the change of tone: It's been officially announced that "China (and a number of other countries with smaller events) managed to contain the CoVid-19" ( ?!?!?!?!? O_o ).
https://youtu.be/hLi2x3_Zv-Y?t=1495

Regarding the present situation I'm just astonished by such a statement...

 

And that was in answer about the possibility about CoVid-19 evolving into a flue-like event (recurring seasonal illness). The main answer was that it was too soon to know anything about that.

 

It has been said again and again that the countries will need to coordinate, That it would be highly improbable that the virus could be stopped from entering a country but that it will be possible to "efficiently manage it" (an outbreak) thanks to the experience from the other countries.

 

It is noted at the very end of the PR about the African Summit that between Jan. 22nd and Feb. 20th:

Quote

countries report that 210 people have been investigated for COVID-10 in the WHO African region. 204 cases have been ruled out and six cases are still pending.

 

My opinion: The main speaker today is a very good snake-oil seller! He managed to not say anything of value or new and repeatedly sidestepped the issues. In french we would say that he efficiently "drowned the fish".

We'll see what tomorrows conference in Geneva will be about.

 

***

 

From the DGs opening speech at todays WHO update, the written release has been posted on their website :

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---24-february-2020

 

He is basically redefining what a pandemic is:

Quote

Our decision about whether to use the word “pandemic” to describe an epidemic is based on an ongoing assessment of the geographical spread of the virus, the severity of disease it causes and the impact it has on the whole of society.

 

Whereas, you can find on their own website:

Quote

What is a pandemic?

24 February 2010

 

A pandemic is the worldwide spread of a new disease.

 

Source: https://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/frequently_asked_questions/pandemic/en/

 

I know that they are the WHO, but they are also a very political organization, todays speech has just even more demonstrated it.

 

 

Edited February 24, 2020 by Guest
font color & typos

[Canoe]

1 hour ago, Cora_Lie said:

... they are also a very political organization, todays speech has just even more demonstrated it.

And that's the net explanation of why what was said, how it was said, and what was not said. No surprises. And they didn't want any of the missteps like you identified at their prior conference.

[Guest]

Following todays WHO update, an opinion article I find very interesting in the NYT:  Is It a Pandemic Yet?

I strongly recommend to read it on their website (too long to copy paste).

A few interesting quotes:
 

Quote

As of Monday, Covid-19 was detected in at least 29 countries. In nations with few or no reported cases so far, particularly in South America and Africa, the absence of evidence shouldn’t be interpreted as evidence of absence. More likely, it reflects lack of testing.

 

Quote

It’s now clear that the epidemic was never going to be contained. At most, its spread was slowed by the lockdown imposed in China and other countries’ efforts to identify infected people and anyone they might have been in contact with.

 

Quote

Covid-19 seems to spread like influenza, through the air, person to person.

So... Survives up to ~9 days on surfaces, droplets, fecal matters (public toilets) and now... by aerial contamination.

So... masks, googles or your glasses (if you have some), gloves and... antiseptic wipes for cleaning surfaces and toilets when outside...

OR !!!
 

Spoiler

 

Quote

Vaccines are many months away, at the earliest.

...

Transmission around the world could continue for months.

 

Quote

...a lockdown is mostly a delaying tactic. By distributing cases over time, it can help manage an outbreak — but only if it takes place against the backdrop of a robust health care system.

...

As chilling as it is to imagine this scenario, what happened in Wuhan, the Chinese city at the epicenter of the outbreak, will likely play out elsewhere, too.

 

Quote

...every country’s top priority should be to protect its health care workers.

...

Their inventories of protective equipment used by doctors, nurses and emergency medical workers — N-95 respirator masks, gloves, eye protection, disposable suits — are running low. These limited supplies must go to health care workers first, rather than the public.

I do agree, but you can have the "medical grade" and the "public use"... Companies would be happy.

I know that it will make the pro-capitalists cringe by saying this, but I think that this is also the time for governments to step in and forbid the unruly speculation on this type of products. It's a problem of public and health safety.

But, hey! I'm a happy Socialist living in a socialist country!

 

Quote

The manufacturing and distribution chains for drugs and other vital products like needles and syringes must remain open, and that, given the global nature of the industry, requires international cooperation. In keeping with World Health Organization guidelines, coronavirus-stricken countries shouldn’t be walled off the way that the United States and others are trying to do with China at the moment. Otherwise, as the virus spreads, we will be isolating ourselves, too, and will jeopardize our ability to obtain critical resources. Many of the active ingredients in lifesaving generic drugs — the ones that stock hospital crash carts and maintain our daily well-being — come from China and India. If that production is brought to a standstill, many people could die, not directly from Covid-19, but indirectly from a lack of access to those drugs.

THIS !!!!! With globalization the production of our vital medicine and even the everyday one has been moved to foreign countries (India to not name it and also China).

THIS makes us critically dependent on them and not only that but the problem of fake medicines sold in our countries is a real problem!

I'm not against globalization, but I'm definitely against situation where I have no choice.

 

Quote

“Pandemic” isn’t just a technical public health term. It also is — or should be — a rallying cry.

 

About the authors of these Opinion Paper in NYT:

Michael T. Osterholm is director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

Mark Olshaker is a writer and documentary filmmaker.

They are the authors of “Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs.”

[Canoe]

For the past four hours, the Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard has either not uploaded all data, or any data. Now it's asking for a signin...

 

Before that, I had

77,150 for China

691 for Diamond Princess

833 for South Korea

230 for Italy

165 for Japan

 

1,709 for all cases outside of Mainland China and the Diamond Princess.

79,550 global cases

Here's the number that ncov.dxy.cn is showing.

 

[Canoe]

On 2/24/2020 at 9:53 PM, Tony Tony Chopper said:

Yeah noticed as well it is either down being hammered or ask for login.

 

These may be good alternatives

https://covid19info.live/

https://outbreak.cc/

It's back, but no map, and data last updated at 10:13 am EST. I'm suspecting they had a bad rollout. They've been adding or improving features since it was up.

 

ecdc.europa.eu dashboard also won't work for me

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/interactive-map

 

Italy?

Well, it appears that their site is run by their bureaucrats...

 

***

 

On 2/24/2020 at 9:53 PM, Tony Tony Chopper said:

https://covid19info.live/  https://outbreak.cc/

covid19info.live is showing Iraq 0.

They copied it from the Feb 23 CSSE file without paying attention to what was in it! lol

And those values have been updated by the CSSE dashboard values from 10:13 AM EST...

 

https://outbreak.cc/

Will only show/give data for Canada...

 

***

 

On 2/24/2020 at 10:08 PM, Canoe said:

ecdc.europa.eu dashboard also won't work for me  https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/interactive-map

Worked after several retries in a separate window. Had a certificate issue a few times.

 

***

 

I wonder how much the "Our decision about whether to use the word #pandemic is based on an ongoing assessment of the geographical spread of the virus, the severity of disease it causes, and the impact it has on the whole of society." vs. "networked multi-sited epidemics system" has to do with "Pandemic Bonds".

 

Quote

 

Pandemic bonds were supposed to fund the cost of fighting the coronavirus — so why aren't they paying off?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/pandemic-bonds-1.5469646

 

 

***

 

Here's another issue with health care.

Could be bad news for those in the States.

 

A Miami man who flew to China worried he might have coronavirus. He may owe thousands.

Quote

• ... returning to Miami last month from a work trip in China, Osmel Martinez Azcue ... found he was developing flu-like symptoms ...
• ... he would have gone to CVS for over-the-counter medicine and fought the flu on his own,
• but this time was different. As health officials stressed preparedness and vigilance for the respiratory illness, Azcue felt it was his responsibility to his family and his community to get tested for ... Covid-19.
• ... hospital staff members told him he’d need a CT scan to screen for coronavirus, but Azcue said he asked for a flu test first. “This will be out of my pocket,” Azcue, who has a very limited insurance plan, recalled saying. “Let’s start with the blood test, and if I test positive, just discharge me.”
• Fortunately, that’s exactly what happened. He had the flu,
• But two weeks later, Azcue got unwelcome news in the form of a notice from his insurance company about a claim for $3,270.
• Hospital officials at Jackson told the Miami Herald that, based on his insurance, Azcue would only be responsible for $1,400 of that bill, but Azcue said he heard from his insurer that he would also have to provide additional documentation: three years of medical records to prove that the flu he got didn’t relate to a preexisting condition.

which leads to...

• “When someone has flu-like symptoms, you want them to to seek medical care,” said Sabrina Corlette, a Georgetown University professor and co-director of the Center on Health Insurance Reforms. “If they have one of these junk plans and they know they might be on the hook for more than they can afford to seek that care, a lot of them just won’t, and that is a public health concern.”
• Azcue said his experience underscores how the costs of healthcare in the U.S. could interfere with preventing public health crises.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article240476806.html

 

p.s.

For anyone who hasn't had to deal this such, "relate to a pre-existing condition" is the standard wiggle out of paying attempt. It's so standard, even in obvious cases, if the person handling the file doesn't attempt it, you have wonder if maybe they're ill...

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, Canoe said:

three years of medical records to prove that the flu he got didn’t relate to a preexisting condition.

Something here doesn't seem right to me...

HOW can the flu, which is a seasonal virus, relate to a "preexisting condition"?

 

I mean you can be simply tired and so immuno-depressed and then be more prone to catch it. Does work count as "preexisting condition"?