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SansVarnic

Due to the nature of this topic, please keep cool heads and conversation On Topic.

Intentional Derailing, Political Rhetoric, or Arguing will result in removal of comments/replies and warnings issued.

 

The "No politics" rule will be enforced even harder. This will be last warning you get. If someone posts any political rhetoric (about parties, ideology, policy etc.), you will receive PM from moderator telling to step off the thread. As forum does not have functionality to do it better ways. If you continue to post ANYTHING after receiving PM, you will get warnings for not following staff instructions.

Posting news about what governments in your parts of world do in order to act on this crisis is fine, but will be looked case-by-case. (Updated 03/19/2020)

 

Remember the core values of this forum;

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  • Ensure a friendly atmosphere to our visitors and forum members.
  • Encourage the freedom of expression and exchange of information in a mature and responsible manner.
  • "Don't be a dick" - Wil Wheaton.
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ATTENTION: there is a covid 19 F@H event happening, you can find it HERE.

 

this is a good opportunity to help with research!

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11 hours ago, Canoe said:

Sure. All sorts of conspiracy addicts worried about that. Started with reports that the crematorium(s) are working around the clock. They're using the public satellite tools for fire spotting and various combustion gasses to "discover" where "the bodies are being burned".

 

While the sat images are interesting, like some UFO "enthusiasts", where every light in the sky is a UFO, these people conclude every map hit must be body burning. Some even delude themselves with all sorts of 'logic'. Acknowledging the usual need for cremations, there's disregard for industrial, commercial and municipal processing, let alone all of the new requirements for complete incineration of the hugely increased amounts of medical waste (with crematoriums a credible place to generate the required temperatures to safely incinerate medical waste as their usual medical incinerators are likely overloaded), possible similar treatment for residential waste from infected residential blocks, dead animals and meat products that have gone to waste.

 

Their posts and even a news paper article are great if you need to teach a class what Confirmation Bias is. Actually, that news paper article makes a 'rigorous' attempt - it's a great classic example. Part makes you want to sigh, but others just lol

? Gosh! Could you be anymore obvious than that! ?

 

What makes me lol is that you are constantly recuperating informations from others and then just add things as if you knew all along (but didn't say anything) or just trying to "debunk" what you think in your own mind to be "a conspiracy theory" because it doesn't go in the way you'll like! ? Very easy to check: all one needs to do is look back in the thread and read who said what and when.

 

I told you before, but it doesn't seem to sink in your mind: "Dirty data is still data, it all depends how you are treating it!"  If you if you are taking it per se and gullibly believe it at face value, that's really stupid. But when you have one information from one source, another from another source, and a third and a fourth, and they all have common points, then you have a pattern. A pattern is not a proof, but an indication that there's something to be looked there!

 

If you did actually read the article you're refferring to (this one in fact: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874013), it is clearly written that many possibilities can explain the spots on the sat images.

But hey... Who is "biased" again?

Ah! The one who is using the official numbers to make nice graphs!

 

And when I post an article about the problem with numbers from a mathematician published in the New York Times (everyone knows that the NYT is the conspiration theorists lair - irony intended ? ) your reaction is "Yes! Yes! It's true! And even more!" and BAM! Another series of nice graphs. ?

 

Now I can nicely and cosily sit back and eat my popcorn, as most of the things I said would happen actually did (not that I'm happy about it!) but nothing annoys me more than posers.

Gosh! I'm soooo happy to be good and successful in my job, as your disparaging comments could - almost - make me doubt of my own professional value!

By the way, I'm a Risk Intelligence Analyst with a background in Data Mining!

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2 hours ago, Canoe said:

"Hey! Look at this. You wouldn't believe that this guy was eating! Maybe he ate & slept at his keyboard."

? What guy?


Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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2 hours ago, Canoe said:

Diamond Princess infected still growing... 79 new coronavirus cases have been detected on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, taking the total to 621.

Before the 621 count, total was projected to be around 700.

Now it's anywhere from 700 to 850.

And that's not counting the workers who went on board and didn't follow proper safety protocols, with a number already known to be infected.

 

 

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1 hour ago, wkdpaul said:

The following is in French, sorry ;

 

Audio interview with the lady I was talking about earlier (couple stuck on the Diamond Princess), at around 6m is where she talks about her specialization, check from the start to hear all the issues they're having on the Diamond Princess ;
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/premiere/emissions/tout-un-matin/episodes/454738/rattrapage-du-mardi-11-fevrier-2020/29
 


Audio interview with the daughter of a couple that was on the Diamond Princess, they were moved in quarantine in a Japanese military hospital (still in French) ;

 

They mentioned the doctor they're seeing is an ophthalmologist that doesn't speak English, the wife has health problems and they can't communicate with the staff to explain that she can't eat because of her gastric issues and her medication ran out ... They're actually afraid that they're going to die in there because of lack of care, pretty scary!

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/premiere/emissions/tout-un-matin/segments/entrevue/155427/coronavirus-covid-19-quarantaine-chantal-diane-bernard-menard

Hum... She seems very worried for her parents and on the verge of being hysterical.

One thing I don't understand is that she says the doctor they see is an ophtalmologist but no one there speaks english? How do they know he is an ophtalmologist? (genuine question).

 

I don't doubt what she is saying, I'm just surprised that it goes on the contrary of what was said in different other videos:
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/coronavirus-man-on-cruise-ship-tells-james-obrien/
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKydRcHz9jhu_t247j7JLUQ/videos

 

And many others.

 

I truly hope that what she is describing is not really happening, as it would be very difficult to understand from a country such as Japan.

 

-------------------------------

 

It seems that now there are 2 deaths in Iran due to CoVid -19.

 

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5 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Hum... She seems very worried for her parents and on the verge of being hysterical.

One thing I don't understand is that she says the doctor they see is an ophtalmologist but no one there speaks english? How do they know he is an ophtalmologist? (genuine question).

They say they have translation devices but they don't seem to be working well and the stuff they're getting out of it is vague and unclear (so it's possible the same thing is happening when using it English -> Japanese).

 

 

5 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

 

I don't doubt what she is saying, I'm just surprised that it goes on the contrary of what was said in different other videos:
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/coronavirus-man-on-cruise-ship-tells-james-obrien/
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKydRcHz9jhu_t247j7JLUQ/videos

 

And many others.

 

I truly hope that what she is describing is not really happening, as it would be very difficult to understand from a country such as Japan.

This could very well be a fluke, and let's hope it is. But it's still not any comfort for that couple that's actually fearing for their lives.

 

 

Of course, you have to keep in mind, all this is 3rd party reports (the daughter saying that's what her parents are saying / living), we don't have any interview with the couple itself, so it's possible there's some sort of exaggeration through the daughter's panic and incomprehension of the situation.


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On 1/27/2020 at 2:44 AM, RorzNZ said:

SARS wasn't that bad and neither is this. People tend to blow this stuff out of proportion when there's a low chance of getting SARS with this strain of coronavirus. Its just a little scary thats all. 

I have to agree with RorzNZ on this. I don't mean to diminish the impact on the people who actually got sick or will get sick, but think about it, out of a population of 8 billion people on the planet a couple thousand get sick. The math is in your favor of not getting the virus. If by chance you do get the virus, the math is still in your favor that you won't die. 

 

I think that we have a lot scarier things than a virus to worry about!

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Seems we have some studies about the possible aftermaths for the CoVid-19 survivors.

Among them a high-risk in kidney damage and possibly reproductive damage in male testes (possible infertility)...

 

Source: https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/LitRep_20200213.pdf

 

These 2 publications are pre-pubilished (so not peer-reviewed yet). This has yet to be confirmed. But it would seem that the CoVid-19 uses the same enzyme as the SARS to attach itself in the human body, but with a larger range of sequels in the human body.

 

To be monitored.

 

Now... Extrapolation in future evolution: What will be the mid- to long term evolution of this - IF it happens to be confirmed -  regarding the chinese society with their prevalence and active social preference for having boys instead of girls.

China has a 1.15 ratio (one of the highest in the world).

Which means that for one girl there is 1.15 boys (the average in the world, being 1.01)

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/21/Sex_ratio_total_population_per_country_smooth_2.png/800px-Sex_ratio_total_population_per_country_smooth_2.png

Sex ratio of the world population, by country. 2013

2020.02.12.20022418v1.full.pdf 2020.02.08.20021212v1.full.pdf

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Here neighbors are calling the cops on each other at this point in regards to self-quarantine.

 

In Calistoga, Johnston was told that neighbors had called police when they noticed him loading up his daughter into the car for errands.

 

 

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/02/18/coronavirus-family-struggles-with-self-quarantine-neighbors-call-cops-people-go-bizonkers/

 


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1 hour ago, Cora_Lie said:

? Gosh! Could you be anymore obvious than that! ?

Yes. I have been. A number of times.

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What makes me lol is that you are constantly recuperating informations from others and then just add things as if you knew all along (but didn't say anything)

I gather and report information from a variety of sources. But I certainly don't post all that I find. As I'm looking for sources, less so news, many are too technical. Some reports turn out to be bunk, others get corroborated (but turn out to be reiterations from a single sources), others get corroborating reports, and some come to light as fact - at which point any may or may not be currently relevant. Some of the uncorroborated/unverified reports are interesting enough that I post them with a qualification. And much of what I say is previously reported information, gathered together to remind or make a point. "Very easy to check: all one needs to do is look back in the thread and read who said what when."

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or just trying to "debunk" what you think in your own mind to be "a conspiracy theory" because it doesn't go in the way you'll like! ?

Very easy to check: all one needs to do is look back in the thread and read who said what and when.

Nothing goes the way I like. Or don't like.

I'm data driven. Show me the facts. As more information comes available, what is known changes. "Very easy to check: all one needs to do is look back in the thread and read who said what when."

 

Like when we were speculating on what all the beds they were gathering at the conference centre where for. Then you got more information on their scope, and video. You kept focusing on how all those beds like that weren't suitable for hospital care/treatment type use. I even hinted that means they're not for that use. But you where so focused and so outraged that those beds weren't suitable for what you kept assuming they were for, you missed the takeaway - that they weren't meant for that use. "Very easy to check: all one needs to do is look back in the thread and read who said what when." I found those beds for another unknown purpose "an indication that there's something to be looked there!", but you just went on being outraged - at least in public. If you're what you say you are, I'm certain you'd have picked up on something so obvious.

 

As I said before, those sat images are interesting ("an indication that there's something to be looked there!"). But I have enough experience using those tools and comparing them to sources on the ground, from live periscope streams to official fire incident reports complete with photos to photos from people I know on the ground, to know not to trust those images as correct, or even in the source location, and to know that the timing and duration of the satellite pass that makes those public measurements is significant. And you'd have to have a measurement profile of all of the known activities (which can be different depending on size) that could be taking place, like masses of medical waste to safely incinerate, or the waste of numerous infected housing blocks, in order to begin to make a credible identification of the potential activities behind the observed measurements. The author was aware of the various conspiracy 'investigations', each feeding or cross-feeding the others, and went searching, and found what the author was searching for. Definitely qualifies as something to keep an eye out for data to explain what the observed measurements were of, but without data to corroborate, it's just that.

 

It will be interesting to see in time, if the reports are true that they're only reporting the deaths of those who had previously lab-tested as Covid as a Covid death. Or what the increased other-deaths due to a disrupted Wuhan (Hubei wide?) medical system are; as we previously discussed, figure there has to be some, likely meaningful in at least Wuhan. But even a delayed attention to an increasing collection of massed medical waste could cause a mass burning or multiple mass burnings, or new sites created. Or if the extrapolated numbers of cremations from one account bear out. But that could also be explained by the need for medical waste to have a minimum safe temperature to know that it's actually destroying all of the pathogens; a burn in a field or a construction site doesn't cut it. Their existing medical waste incineration would have a capacity. The huge medical waste generated by the huge medical event needs safe disposing. To have a controlled, hence sufficient, incineration, they may be using a number of crematoriums for incinerating medical waste. But that's all speculation. We don't know. For now at least, we can't know. Medical waste: another thing I'm watching for, but it's not exactly report or news worthy, from what I've seen so far.

 

Like my opinion on the Diamond Princess (based on the huge infection rate indicated by the reported numbers and early reports on the Diamond Princess), which had you "dismayed" and "flabbergasted". Now as more facts becomes known, including some scathing criticism from a Japanese expert, we have much more of an understanding of what happened to help cause such a high infection rate. The issues go even beyond those of other on-board breakouts of infectious diseases. And you compared my criticism of the Japanese quarantine officer, who started after the WHO and other organizations had widely publicized the dangers and required protections for professionals in that environment (it's not credible that they were not aware; considering their role, it would be negligence to not be aware), to that of the plight of the Wuhan/Hubei/Chinese doctors who got infected before the risk and scope of the disease was known, or who kept working caring for the sick after sufficient Personal Protection Equipment was not available and consequently became infected, and still kept on working if they could. You're cherry-picking points out of context. Those three groups: those Chinese doctors & other medical personal infected early, those infected later, and the Japanese personal (we now know there's more not following adequate protective procedures, and more of them infected), are not the same and did not happen at the same time. The timing and reason are very material.

 

For someone who says they work with data, and repeatedly posts about dirty data, I don't understand how can you can miss the big takeaway from such, or be aware of pieces and not put them together.

On 2/9/2020 at 11:50 AM, Cora_Lie said:

... If you want an idea of how it spreads, just look at how quickly it grew on the Diamond Princess. First 3 people, in the next few days it was 10, the next day it's been 20 and the next day it's 60. All that within less than a week. ...

On 2/9/2020 at 11:50 AM, Cora_Lie said:

... But they can round up everyone and put them in big closes places werre even if you didn't get it at first, you'll get later.

The Diamond Princess already was everyone rounded up, with the infected confined with the uninfected. If you didn't get it at first (import infection), you'll get it later (community transmission). I couldn't foresee that the Diamond Princess infected count would (or could) get as huge as it did. I never thought to consider what that number would/could be. But I was certainly aware of this in our discussion.

On 2/9/2020 at 12:55 PM, Canoe said:

Cruise ships are interesting, but they're not valid for comparison. They're a congested artificial environment with a long and nasty history of promoting infectious transmissions. They are a super-spreading event. ... What happened on any one cruise ship may be from a single import infection, or multiple imports. It may be a single outbreak on board or multiple! The authorities will very much be looking at Imported infections vs. Transmission.

The R0 for the Briton in France, and that of the Diamond Princess, you thought those rates should be applied to Wuhan. That you missed that the two families were vacationing together, not just staying in the same building with little if any contact, can easily be missed (but odd for someone who works with data). But with the lower R0 for all the other countries (with presumably more accurate reporting than China), and the affect different environmental conditions (confined to ship, vacationing together, workplaces/residences across a city, etc.) have on infection rates, how could you not recognize that different places can have, and were having, different R0? You certainly recognized that warehousing the infected with the possibly infected is not a good idea. You make some connections but miss so many others.

 

You jump off with false statements that glaringly ignore known facts. Your stating that it was a political decision for the hospitals to send people home instead of admitting them, when the number of people clearly could not fit in the seven Wuhan hospitals. Really? There is no decision to be made. By anyone. The reported numbers don't even come close to fitting if they had double the number of hospitals. How could your unspecified much larger number of infected people possibly fit in those seven hospitals? How can you make such a grossly obviously false statement. You're politicizing obvious physical limitations.

 

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I told you before, but it doesn't seem to sink in your mind: "Dirty data is still data, it all depends how you are treating it!"  If you if you are taking it per se and gullibly believe it at face value, that's really stupid. But when you have one information from one source, another from another source, and a third and a fourth, and they all have common points, then you have a pattern. A pattern is not a proof, but an indication that there's something to be looked there!

Like I said, what was found in the sat image data was interesting, but it doesn't have enough without supporting data. And I have seen numerous conspiracy theory level reports on that. 

 

I don't understand why you keep thinking I'm taking things at face value. I can't imagine anyone blindly believing all the numbers out of China, but in the absence of more facts, those numbers are, well, those numbers. They are what they are.

 

You kept on about the Confirmed cases couldn't possibly be all of those infected in China, while seemingly unaware of the reported number of infections.

On 2/9/2020 at 12:01 PM, Cora_Lie said:

... You want me to believe that within 2 months "only" 35,000 people have infected in China?

On 2/9/2020 at 12:08 PM, Canoe said:

You can't use 35,000. You have to use Confirmed and the Suspected who are diagnoised as 2019-nCoV.

That's over 60K. They're officially reporting over 60K infected!!! And 371,905 exposed as a "close contact"! These numbers are right in their daily update!

Then you have to find that Iceberg factor.

 

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If you did actually read the article you're refferring to (this one in fact: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874013), it is clearly written that many possibilities can explain the spots on the sat images.

But hey... Who is "biased" again?

Ah! The one who is using the official numbers to make nice graphs!

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And when I post an article about the problem with numbers from a mathematician published in the New York Times (everyone knows that the NYT is the conspiration theorists lair - irony intended ? ) your reaction is "Yes! Yes! It's true! And even more!"

Yes. As I said, "It's largely as said, and even more complicated." And pointed out "While it's possible, we don't know that he was actually made aware back then.", along with what those whose job it is to follow China said, that the narrative he was informed back then could easily be false. Then I wrote up what I thought was a rather polite way of pointing out the facts that show your "political" statements: don't match physical reality, or that the failed home-quarantine had to somehow be improved. (As stated, I'm not sure what outcome we'll see from the door-to-door round up and quarantine.)

I gathered the facts from previously posted info and laid them out to emphasize the scope for people who may have missed it.

 

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and BAM! Another series of nice graphs. ?

Yes. I post them daily. You were for some reason surprised?

The graphs are just a visual presentation of the reported numbers. No more. No less. They're interesting to see how the numbers from Hubei vs. the rest of China look. And they can have things that make you go hmmm. As you said, "an indication that there's something to be looked there!" Like the sudden decline of Suspected cases over a few days making some of us go hmmm, with the subsequent explanation as 13,332 of those were transferred into Confirmed. There's some hmmms going on about how perfect the progression of various numbers are. For someone who works in data analysis, you're awfully quiet about that. They also show how much of the disease load is on Hubei, and specifically Wuhan.

You seem to not like the graphs for what they won't do. They are what they are.

 

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Now I can nicely and cosily sit back and eat my popcorn, as most of the things I said would happen actually did (not that I'm happy about it!) but nothing annoys me more than posers.

Gosh! I'm soooo happy to be good and successful in my job, as your disparaging comments could - almost - make me doubt of my own professional value!

By the way, I'm a Risk Intelligence Analyst with a background in Data Mining!

For all of the things you've misunderstood, put out of context, missed, stated against known fact, I can't for the life of me figure out why I do, but I still get the feeling you're the real deal. For someone who posts about dirty data so much, it's odd you miss or ignore so many points. (Ignoring the minor), the repeated errors, omissions, conclusions stated as fact when they're in the face of known fact, wouldn't be accepted in your stated type of work. I do not understand why you make them here. You've made a number of politicized statements. I'm not sure what to think of that.

 

But I'm going back to what I've been doing.

Finding interesting reports that may shed light on what is going on, and doing the graphs of the reported numbers.

 

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Waiting for the CNHC daily update for Feb 19.

But I have this from the CCSE data.

 

Diamond Princess showing 621 infected.

Projection ~same at 697 to 851.

 

  • The surprise is Iran jumping onto the list with two Deaths.
    • No detection/reporting until dead.
    • Two elderly in Qom. Wikipedia says 7th largest city in Iran, at 1.2 million, Feb averages high of 10.2 C and 0.6C for those who are looking at spread/viability by temperature.
    • Unknown if these are Import or Community Transmission. Authorities are investigating how they contacted the virus.
    • A report that a hospital in Qom was designated to handle coronavirus patients and some officials are calling for quarantining those close to the patients.

 

  • CDC study gives a ~1% asympotomatic rate. And another study has verified that viral loads during asymtomatic incubation period support transmission.
  • Concerns that outbreaks in South Korea and Japan have reached the point that Wuhan was at in early January.
  • Chinese CDC says study of 72,000 cases:
    • The research team determined that the virus is highly contagious, having spread from a single city to the entire country in just one month, and despite authorities’ extreme containment efforts, including citywide lockdowns.

    • In addition, they found that COVID-19 is not life-threatening for over 80% of patients, and that older patients with preexisting health conditions are more likely to die.

    • The retrospective study also reveals significant delays by Wuhan and Hubei officials in identifying and reporting cases, especially during the early stages of the outbreak.

    • For example, the analysis found that over 5,500 of Hubei’s confirmed cases might have fallen ill before Jan. 20. Officially, however, the provincial health commission had reported just 270 confirmed cases by this date, suggesting a diagnosis rate of less than 5%.

    • The study also said that 105 infections had occurred before Dec. 31 — the date Wuhan’s health commission first acknowledged an “unexplained illness” in just 27 patients.

    • http://www.sixthtone.com/news/1005213/105-people-were-infected-with-covid-19-by-dec.-31%2C-study-says
  • Concerned about future outbreaks from zoonotic transmission, there's still debate about early connections to the Wuhan seafood market or not. Not yet clear.
  • Reports that the Chinese discharge criteria remain at 3 days afebrile, improvement in symptoms and imaging, and two negative PCR tests at least 1 day apart. "Quite strict, which accounts for the low discharge numbers."
  • Complaints that China stopped reporting the detailed by City data, and has changed their case definitions again. The Feb 19 data has just been released, I see what it says. (Well, google will tell me what it says...)
  • Related: Apple Q2 revenue guidance: could lose 40-50% of its Q2 revenue.

 

682013699_GlobalCasesbycountry-regionnon-mainlandChina-Feb192020inset.thumb.png.9741fc2f86da6df426352eb9f53fb07e.png

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The Feb 19th graphs have to wait. There's a number and translation anomaly. I have to wait and see if files are updated overnight.

After going to the CNHC site and doing a select and copy, I typed in google, and google immediately went to "Translate, Chinese" lol

 

 

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*** Thread cleaned ***

 

Part 2.

 

Lets address this first:

On 2/15/2020 at 1:23 AM, Canoe said:

After the thread was "moderated", I can't find the post that described a way to make your own filter.

You can use forum search within threads. I know from your editing style that you already use desktop version which gives full site features.

 

***

 

Some notes.

 

This is forum. A place of sharing and discussing. While we don't require you to back your claims (be them facts or created facts or whatever), it is appreciated. For good journalism and research skills include that you make clear difference between data directly from source, your interpretation of the data and your own conclusions/knowledge.

 

As we aren't peer-reviewed journal nor news site with editor or editorial board, we can't verify or claim to host all accurate data. Reading, interpreting, understanding and argumentation based on what is posted on the forum is up to each member and visitor themselves. Just like any other site on the internet, this forum can host misinformation which isn't corrected or removed by the staff. Thats not part of our tasks. We expect our members to keep each other in check, with respectful manners.

 

If you have issue, use Report-function and moderators will review it.

 

As reminder, political discussion is prohibited. Thats one sure way to get thread, even as current and active as this one, locked. And it only needs one bad actor to lay a bait and one "smart" person to take the bait.


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On 2/20/2020 at 4:15 AM, Canoe said:

The surprise is Iran jumping onto the list with two Deaths.

AP report in the WP

Quote
  • Iran said Thursday that three more people have been infected
  • they did not appear to have had any contact with Chinese nationals.
  • Iranian authorities were now investigating the origin of the disease, and its possible link with religious pilgrims from Pakistan or other countries.

which makes them look like Community Transmission instead of Import

Quote
  • All schools and universities, including religious Shiite seminaries, were shut down in the holy city of Qom, according to the official IRNA news agency.
  • roughly 60 Iranian students evacuated from Wuhan had been quarantined upon their return to Iran and were discharged after 14 days without any health problems.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iran-announces-3-new-cases-of-coronavirus-after-2-deaths/2020/02/20/eff2f180-53d4-11ea-80ce-37a8d4266c09_story.html


 

Quote
  • A religious group in South Korea has been identified as a coronavirus hotbed, officials say, amid a sharp rise in confirmed cases in the country.
  • It is believed that the infections among members of the Temple of the Tabernacle of the Testimony sect in the city of Daegu are linked to one woman.
    • South Korean health officials believe that the infections are linked to a 61-year-old woman who tested positive for the virus earlier this week.
    • The Korean Centre for Disease Control says the woman - who has not been identified - had contact with 166 people, who were asked to self-quarantine.
  • The sect accounts for 30 of 53 new cases, with officials warning of an unprecedented crisis in the country.
  • South Korea also confirmed its first death from the virus

***

Diamond Princess

  • The ocean liner was carrying 3,700 people in total and passengers who tested negative for the virus began leaving the ship on Wednesday after a 14-day quarantine.
  • Hundreds have now disembarked from the cruise liner docked in Yokohama. Others are set to leave over the next two days.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51572137

 

Quote
  • Two Japanese passengers who contracted the new coronavirus on board a cruise ship quarantined in Japan have died, officials say.
  • Both were in their 80s with underlying health conditions. They were being treated in hospitals after being taken off the Diamond Princess last week.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51568496

 

***

 

https://doi.org/10.1080/22221751.2020.1729071

Molecular and serological investigation of 2019-nCoV infected patients: implication of multiple shedding routes
 

Quote

 

In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) caused an outbreak in Wuhan, China, and soon spread to other parts of the world. It was believed that 2019-nCoV was transmitted through respiratory tract and then induced pneumonia, thus molecular diagnosis based on oral swabs was used for confirmation of this disease. Likewise, patient will be released upon two times of negative detection from oral swabs.

We found the presence of 2019-nCoV in anal swabs and blood as well, and more anal swab positives than oral swab positives in a later stage of infection, suggesting shedding and thereby transmitted through oral–fecal route. We also showed serology test can improve detection positive rate thus should be used in future epidemiology. Our report provides a cautionary warning that 2019-nCoV may be shed through multiple routes.

  • viral nucleotide can be found in anal swab or blood even if it cannot be detected in oral swabs. It should be noted that although swabs may be negative, the patient might still be viremic.
  • Above all, we strongly suggest using viral IgM and IgG serological test to confirm an infection, considering the unreliable results from oral swabs detection.

 

Takeaways include:

  • Fecal Transmission likely
  • Oral swabs not definitive to detect infection.
    • Missed detections in early stages of outbreak, due to use of oral swabs
  • Blood test will detect infections that oral swabs don't.

 

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19 hours ago, Canoe said:

... There's some hmmms going on about how perfect the progression of various numbers are. ...

Clear as mud

 

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1230139831377944579

Quote

... Barron’s re-created the regression analysis of total deaths caused by the virus, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of last year, and found similarly high variance. We ran it by Melody Goodman, associate professor of biostatistics at New York University’s School of Global Public Health.

“I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,” Goodman says. “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”

Real human data are never perfectly predictive when it comes to something like an epidemic, Goodman says, since there are countless ways that a person could come into contact with the virus.

For context, Goodman says a “really good” r-squared, in terms of public health data, would be a 0.7. “Anything like 0.99,” she said, “would make me think that someone is simulating data. It would mean you already know what is going to happen.” ...

https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-economic-data-have-always-raised-questions-its-coronavirus-numbers-do-too-51581622840

Yet, for Ebola cumulative case data for 2014, r-squared is 0.992.

1803493032_Ebolacumulativecasedata2014r-sqr0_992.jpg.3c4f7b893f23b276b20106d8aafdae8c.jpg

and SARS in 2003

Quote

Microsoft Excel calculates an R2 of 0·98 for an exponential curve, indicating an excellent fit (figure, A).

473520943_CumulativereportedcasesofSARSinHKuptoApr52003.png.dd897950e2c67a61f12f86c98561753a.png

 

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(03)13335-1

 

So the r-squared/curve-fitting, while a hmmm, won't give us a smoking gun.

 

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What I’m not getting is how is the death rate for this thing supposed to be under 5% while the deaths vs cases looks more like 50%


Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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11 hours ago, Canoe said:

The Feb 19th graphs have to wait. There's a number and translation anomaly. I have to wait and see if files are updated overnight.

After going to the CNHC site and doing a select and copy, I typed in google, and google immediately went to "Translate, Chinese" lol

Here's the problem with the latest CNHC report data, possibly due to their, yet again, new case definition.

 

The Feb 19th total for new cases for all of China is given as

reported 394 new cases

 

The format in a lower section for Hubei & Wuhan has been,

湖北新增确诊病例1693例(武汉1660例)

The Hubei number (the Wuhan number). (武汉___例)

 

From CHNC site for Feb 19th

http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/202002/4dcfcb9b74ea4a408fc1d56d4db61f93.shtml

Quote

  湖北新增确诊病例349例(其中:武汉新增615例,仙桃等4市新增13例,荆门、咸宁等10市州对确诊病例中来源于原“临床诊断病例”者进行核酸检测,通过综合分析,将核酸检测结果为阴性的病例从确诊病例中核减,共订正核减279例)

Google translates to

Quote

There were 349 new confirmed cases in Hubei (including 615 new cases in Wuhan, 13 new cases in 4 cities including Xiantao, and 10 cities and prefectures such as Jingmen, Xianning, etc.). Comprehensive analysis, subtracted negative cases from the confirmed cases, and revised a total of 279 cases.

Total in Hubei of 349, and the subset of that in Wuhan is 615...

It's been "XXX new cases in Hubei (YYY in Wuhan)", with XXX > YYY, and their net the balance of cases in Hubei that aren't in Wuhan. Like the 1693 (1660) at the top.

Maybe that means the 'old' new cases (before further testing and adjustment) would have been 349+279, for 628 new cases in Hubei (615 in Wuhan)?

 

But https://www.labome.com/method/Wuhan-2019-Novel-Coronavirus-2019-nCoV.html

gives that section as

 

Quote

湖北新增确诊病例349例(其中:武汉新增615例,仙桃等4市新增13例,荆门、咸宁等10市州对确诊病例中来源于原“临床诊断病例”者进行核酸检测,通过综合分析,将核酸检测结果为阴性的病例从确诊病例中核减,共订正核减279例

 

Hubei reported 349 new cases (1,660 in Wuhan), 1,266 patients released from medical case (615 in Wuhan and 4 prefecture level cities including Xiantao have 13 cases; 10 prefecture level cities including Jingmen and Xianning have 279 fewer cases due to PCR negative results for some of the "clinically diagnosed cases" and re-evaluations),

 

It's not six of one, half-dozen of the other...

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4 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

What I’m not getting is how is the death rate for this thing supposed to be under 5% while the deaths vs cases looks more like 50%

Are you looking at the Ebola 2014 graph?

 

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1 minute ago, Canoe said:

Are you looking at the Ebola 2014 graph?

 

I was. Nvm.  Thanks.


Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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1 minute ago, Bombastinator said:

I was. Nvm.  Thanks.

Well, with the numbers we're getting, you never know... ?

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The "Top" list you don't want to be on.

Excludes the true Tops, Mainland China and the Diamond Princess.

Total External is the total of reported Confrimed Cases outside of Mainland China and the Diamond Princess.

 

As the blip in the data is Japan on Feb 6th, I'm guessing that was Japan starting to count the Diamond Princess, then changed their minds.

 

For midday EST, 2020-02-20

 

2018780673_Covid-19TOPformidday2020-02-20.thumb.png.0bac428c7a0f6e6fadacdc6e6258ab87.png

 

 

 

On 2/19/2020 at 7:54 PM, Bombastinator said:

? What guy?

Bad joke: whoseever's plasma they were looking at.

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1 hour ago, Canoe said:

The "Top" list you don't want to be on.

Excludes the true Tops, Mainland China and the Diamond Princess.

Total External is the total of reported Confrimed Cases outside of Mainland China and the Diamond Princess.

 

As the blip in the data is Japan on Feb 6th, I'm guessing that was Japan starting to count the Diamond Princess, then changed their minds.

 

For midday EST, 2020-02-20

 

2018780673_Covid-19TOPformidday2020-02-20.thumb.png.0bac428c7a0f6e6fadacdc6e6258ab87.png

 

 

Wow.  What the heck happened on the first of February in South Korea?  It looks like it’s growing in a lot of places but that’s a big jump.


Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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1 hour ago, Bombastinator said:

Wow.  What the heck happened on the first of February in South Korea?  It looks like it’s growing in a lot of places but that’s a big jump.

You could look more into the suspected cause here. Large groups of people congregating together when one of them was infected.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/20/south-korean-city-daegu-lockdown-coronavirus-outbreak-cases-soar-at-church-cult-cluster


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1 hour ago, PhantomJaguar77 said:

You could look more into the suspected cause here. Large groups of people congregating together when one of them was infected.

 

Uncertain if it's just an undetected cluster that grew before detected, or a super-spreading event.

7 hours ago, Canoe said:
Quote
  • A religious group in South Korea has been identified as a coronavirus hotbed, officials say, amid a sharp rise in confirmed cases in the country.
  • It is believed that the infections among members of the Temple of the Tabernacle of the Testimony sect in the city of Daegu are linked to one woman.
    • South Korean health officials believe that the infections are linked to a 61-year-old woman who tested positive for the virus earlier this week.
    • The Korean Centre for Disease Control says the woman - who has not been identified - had contact with 166 people, who were asked to self-quarantine.
  • The sect accounts for 30 of 53 new cases, with officials warning of an unprecedented crisis in the country.
  • South Korea also confirmed its first death from the virus

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51572137

So many are low/no symptom, it seems to take a number of cases before cases start to get detected. Hence the worry about how far and wide it's been seeded before that, as they wonder about the two month plus time from D0 in Wuhan before it got adequate notice.

 

 

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I know that there is one student infected in my area at Arizona State University, but total numbers in the U.S. are heavily conflicted by lack of accurate reporting and misinformation. Fox News is reporting this like it is the end of the world and CNN is just focused on the cruise ship alone. I'm relying on the VOA and eye-witness reports. As far as I know, there are at least 70 confirmed cases here, but there is no need to panic. You are only at risk if you have lung disease, are a smoker, or have an already weakened immune system. Though, I'll start getting my offshore bunker ready.


 

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, FakeCIA said:

... total numbers in the U.S. are heavily conflicted by lack of accurate reporting and misinformation. ... You are only at risk if you have lung disease, are a smoker, or have an already weakened immune system. Though, I'll start getting my offshore bunker ready.

I don't know why, but diabetes figures in as a significant risk of a severe or fatal outcome.

I see reports that the U.S. is so far only testing people with a link to China/Hubei/Wuhan, which, depends on the source. Allegedly the same for Canada. Once the SARS-CoV-2 secondary detection test for flu cases are up and running at the five labs chosen for that, the CDC will have their U.S. early warning going. Maybe even got online today...

 

Here's what the top three look like.

My take on it is that Singapore is likely a more realistic infection rate, plus a much earlier detection and response. What we see with the other two, is likely Delayed Detection. Japan had at least one spreading event (that boat party - no, not the cruise...) and South Korea the same with that religious group. I'd like to say that Japan & South Korea being slightly higher is a consequence of the delayed detection, but the counts are really so close it isn't valid to claim that. But that's all just a guess... If there's a continuing rise or jump in either of those two, then we look at the numbers again. And there's no telling when another country hits a 'critical' mass in a cluster (or two, or more), and off it goes.

 

594988705_Covid-19TOP3forevening2020-02-20.thumb.png.508c8a6d2c44d76a4f47a1a7de398578.png

Edited by Canoe
no, not the cruise
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