corona virus

greenmax · February 21, 2020

1 minute ago, Canoe said:

Unfortunately, the rest of the world total is climbing.

....just wait until it hits a 3rd world country!

Canoe · February 21, 2020

1 minute ago, greenmax said:

....just wait until it hits a 3rd world country!

That's exactly what the WHO seems to be most worried about.

Canoe · February 21, 2020

https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb2507

Cryo-EM structure of the 2019-nCoV spike in the prefusion conformation

Quote

atomic-resolution imaging of the protein that the virus uses to gain access to cells

Recent reports demonstrating that 2019-nCoV S and SARS-CoV S share the same functional host-cell receptor—angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) —prompted us to quantify the kinetics of this interaction by surface plasmon resonance (SPR). ACE2 bound to 2019-nCoV S ectodomain with ~15 nM affinity, which is approximately 10- to 20-fold higher affinity than ACE2 binding to SARS-CoV S

Canoe · February 21, 2020

South Korea sure took a jump.

Numbers to Feb 20, plus dashboard from 21 midday EST.

***

Not the disease per se, but its consequences.

Takeaways, grouped.

Quote

Oxford Economics said it expected:

China’s GDP growth to fall from 6% last year to 5.4% in 2020 following the spread of the virus so far

the impact of the virus to be limited to China and have a significant, but short-term impact, bringing world GDP growth just 0.2% lower than January at 2.3%.

But a pandemic would cause a deeper and more profound shock over the next six months, possibly equal to a $1.1tn loss, followed by a recovery that would make up some of the ground lost earlier in the year.

if it spreads more widely in Asia, world GDP would fall by $400bn in 2020, or 0.5%.

If the virus spreads beyond Asia and becomes a global pandemic, world GDP would drop $1.1tn, or 1.3% compared to the current projection.
A $1.1tn decline would be the same as losing the entire annual output of Indonesia, the world’s 16th largest economy.

“Our scenarios see world GDP hit as a result of declines in discretionary consumption and travel and tourism, with some knock-on financial market effects and weaker investment,” it said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/19/coronavirus-could-cost-global-economy-1tn-in-lost-output

***

In Italy,

http://www.ansa.it/english/newswire/english_service/2020/02/21/coronavirus-six-people-infected-in-lombardy-4_4d8c8975-04ba-422d-976a-e397861f3792.html

Quote

(ANSA) - Rome, February 21 - The first six people have been infected with the coronavirus in Italy, all in Lombardy, regional health councillor Giulio Gallera said Friday. They are all about 40. All six are in serious condition, Lombardy Governor Attilio Fontana said.

"the cases reported in Lombardy are the first registered on Italian territory and take us into a new phase. "For the first time we have moved from cases of importation to cases of local circulation of the virus".

Gallera urged people to stay at home and avoid social contact.

He said some 250 people had been placed in isolation and would be tested for the deadly virus.

... Codogno near Lodi. The town has closed schools, bars, eateries, discos, dancehalls, gambling arcades and sporting facilities as a precaution at least until Sunday.

The health ministry ordered quarantine for all those who have returned from China in the last two weeks.

Lombardy welfare councilor Giulio Gallera urged all residents of Codogno and nearby Castiglione d'Adda to stay at home as a precautionary measure and avoid all social contact.

Authorities are weighing the use of military facilities for quarantine purposes.

In Lodi the first masks were being distributed amid coronavirus fears.

World Health Organization official Walter Ricciardi said the case of an infection in Italy had been forecast for months and now "sangfroid" was needed.

He said the new virus "is now present in Italy too and the new phase is marked by the presence of cases of secondary transmission of the infection", that is, picking up the virus from other people than those who have come from Wuhan and its surrounding province, Hubei.

Meanwhile the first 20 of 55 Italians who returned from Wuhan February 3 have now left quarantine at the Cecchignola military complex outside Rome.

NOTE: no mention of the workers who were returning from Wuhan to work in Italy, who were not going to be quarantined.

I thought I'd posted that a few days ago, but I can't find it...

greenmax · February 21, 2020

3 minutes ago, Canoe said:

workers

I'd want to know the #'s on the people helping out in the crisis, like the workers on the cruise ship.

Canoe · February 21, 2020

In Iran,

Turkish Minister of Health @drfahrettinkoca says his Iranian counterpart informed him that they have 758 suspected cases of Covid-19, 18 have been confirmed positive, 5 have died.

https://twitter.com/HadiNili/status/1230875909915389953

https://www.pscp.tv/trthabercanli/1OyKAYzzojDKb

Canada gets an import case from Iran

Quote

A sixth person in B.C. is believed to be infected with the coronavirus, and the case is raising new questions about how the disease is spreading, health officials announced Thursday. The latest patient is a woman in her 30s who lives in the Fraser Health region, according to provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry. She had recently returned from a trip to Iran and is now recovering at home.

The patient has had contact with others since her return from Iran last week. Close family members are currently in isolation and being monitored by public health officials.

She said health officials are looking into when the patient's symptoms started to help determine if they need to notify those who travelled with her on the same aircraft. Her diagnosis is considered presumptive until confirmed by the National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/coronavirus-bc-update-1.5470757

Unverified

video of Chinese police destroying open air sidewalk market displays of unwrapped fresh fruit and vegetables, presumably because the virus is stable for 9+ days on surfaces.

***

Diamond Princess, Japan, to Canada

Quote

Canadian cruise ship passengers whose charter plane first landed in Trenton early Friday morning have arrived in Cornwall (~Ontario) to begin a 14-day quarantine.

All repatriated passengers on the chartered flight had tested negative for the virus, but were screened again in Trenton before boarding five buses destined for the NAV Centre in Cornwall to be quarantined, according to Health Canada officials.

According to a Facebook post by Bernadette Clement, the mayor of Cornwall, Ont., 131 passengers and seven crew members were on board the charter flight. However, the office of Foreign Affairs Minister François-Philippe Champagne later confirmed that only 129 passengers were on board.

Forty-seven Canadians who were on board the ship tested positive for COVID-19. Those passengers were not allowed to board the charter flight, and are in isolation at Japanese health facilities.

Healthy Canadian passengers who choose to leave Japan by their own means will also face a mandatory 14-day quarantine period upon arrival in Canada

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/diamond-princess-coronavirus-trenton-cornwall-1.5470386

wtf

does that mean some will be travelling and possibly infected but asymptomatic?

boey · February 21, 2020

3 minutes ago, Canoe said:

Diamond Princess, Japan, to Canada

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/diamond-princess-coronavirus-trenton-cornwall-1.5470386

wtf

does that mean some will be travelling and possibly infected but asymptomatic?

Yeah, there was a cluster of infections here in Singapore caused by a business meeting in a hotel, the root cause was asymptomatic until a few days(weeks?) later

greenmax · February 21, 2020

2 minutes ago, Canoe said:

14-day quarantine.

I wondered a few days ago what would happen if a person refused to be quarantined. Just get up and walk right on out of Trenton ON quarantine, which is an army base. Be better to be held up in a big hotel room for the time wasted being quarantined. Put me up in a Hyatt rather then an army base.

Canoe · February 21, 2020

oh oh...

21 February 2020 - Imperial College London‌

Report 6: Relative sensitivity of international surveillance

WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics
Imperial College London

Quote

WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics
Imperial College London

Since the start of the COVID-19 epidemic in late 2019, there are now 29 affected regions and countries with over 1000 confirmed cases outside of mainland China. In previous reports, we estimated the likely epidemic size in Wuhan City based on air traffic volumes and the number of detected cases internationally. Here we analysed COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China to different regions and countries, comparing the country-specific rates of detected and confirmed cases per flight volume to estimate the relative sensitivity of surveillance in different countries. Although travel restrictions from Wuhan City and other cities across China may have reduced the absolute number of travellers to and from China, we estimated that about two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected worldwide, potentially resulting in multiple chains of as yet undetected human-to-human transmission outside mainland China.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

Alledged

https://twitter.com/wanderfree/status/1230911191406366720

Canoe · February 21, 2020

24 minutes ago, greenmax said:

I wondered a few days ago what would happen if a person refused to be quarantined. Just get up and walk right on out of Trenton ON quarantine, which is an army base. ...

Don't know. But the Yukon Lodge where they are housed is in a section of the base that is behind a fence (that section is not in the 'secure' section of the base), and the lodge is easily monitored and is sure to have the usual entryway cameras. You can goggle images to see what it looks like, even with press camera in front waiting for the evacuees. It would be trivial to staff it to secure it. The base is largely a transport air base.

I've stayed in the original Yukon Lodge building a number of times as a child. It's been upgraded. lol The big thrill was getting to go out to the Dairy Queen for ice cream.

News says their quarantine ends today.

greenmax · February 21, 2020

4 minutes ago, Canoe said:

News says their quarantine ends today.

I hope the lawsuits start flying!

Canoe · February 21, 2020

1 minute ago, greenmax said:

I hope the lawsuits start flying!

Lawsuits for what?

greenmax · February 21, 2020

3 minutes ago, Canoe said:

Lawsuits for what?

Well to start a lawsuit there needs to be no reason whatsoever, but whats happening with the virus I can see law suits against the cruise line, the Canadian government, the airline, the army base and who ever else is involved.

Time lost

Wages lost

Canoe · February 21, 2020

Dr. Peng in Wuhan, is reported as deceased.

His account of the efforts in the Wuhan hospital and his driving Emerg isolation and a Covid-19 dedicated ICU section, and on how the disease presents in those hospitalized was referenced in this thread a number of times.

Quote

BEIJING (AFP) – A 29-year-old doctor at the epicentre of China’s new coronavirus outbreak has died from the disease, one of the youngest known fatalities of the epidemic and the latest among medical workers.

Dr Peng Yinhua died on Thursday (Feb 20) after becoming infected while working at Wuhan’s Jiangxia district People’s No. 1 Hospital, official news agency Xinhua reported, citing the local health bureau.

Dr Peng was hospitalised on Jan 25 and transferred to Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital for treatment on Jan 30. He died from the virus at 9.50pm on Thursday despite doctors' efforts to save his life at the hospital.

The respiratory and critical illness doctor had planned to get married during the Chinese New Year holiday, but postponed his wedding to help treat coronavirus patients.

...

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/wuhan-hospital-doctor-dies-from-coronavirus

greenmax · February 21, 2020

I hope the doctor had a very healthy life insurance plan!

Mister Woof · February 21, 2020

https://www.kcra.com/article/1st-case-coronavirus-confirmed-sacramento-county-officials-say/31045071?src=app

In my county now.

Nice knowing you folks.

Canoe · February 21, 2020

19 minutes ago, greenmax said:

Well to start a lawsuit there needs to be no reason whatsoever, but whats happening with the virus I can see law suits against the cruise line, the Canadian government, the airline, the army base and who ever else is involved.

Time lost

Wages lost

Hmmm.

Perhaps you think those quarantined should be presented with a bill for their evacuation flight from Wuhan, the drive to the Yukon Lodge, medical monitoring during their stay (Trenton does some pilot selection and ongoing pilot & flight crew air medicals (rather involved) and is the jump-off point of Canada's world wide disaster relief units, including DART - they've got, and have access to, some serious medical personal, along with the full range of Personal Protection Equipment), along with their food and accommodations during their stay?

(Some of, as we know from above) the Canadian evacuees from the Diamond Princess also arrived at Trenton and were screened there before being transported to a centre in Cornwall Ontario (a bit east of there).

~edit:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-coronavirus-evacuees-settle-into-cfb-trentons-yukon-lodge/

Edited February 21, 2020 by Canoe
add link

Bombastinator · February 21, 2020

7 minutes ago, greenmax said:

I hope the doctor had a very healthy life insurance plan!

He was a Chinese National.

greenmax · February 21, 2020

1 minute ago, Canoe said:

with a bill for their evacuation flight from Wuhan

Its an option thats minicsule to nonexistant on being implemented.

Even emergency evacuations (Mountain Rescue) critics will mention too, but its apart of the citizen paying their taxes.

Either way its very muddy waters.

Bombastinator · February 21, 2020

3 minutes ago, Canoe said:

Hmmm.

Perhaps you think those quarantined should be presented with a bill for their evacuation flight from Wuhan, the drive to the Yukon Lodge, medical monitoring during their stay (Trenton does some pilot selection and ongoing pilot & flight crew air medicals (rather involved) and is the jump-off point of Canada's world wide disaster relief units, including DART), along with their food and accommodations during their stay?

(Some of, as we know from above) the Canadian evacuees from the Diamond Princess also arrived at Trenton and were screened there before being transported to a centre in Cornwall Ontario (a bit east of there).

What a lawsuit means is “someone is owed something that has not been accounted for, and a system should be used to find out what or how much” What may be missing is what the alternatives were: leave them where they were or just shoot and cremate them. They came out ahead. Already.

Canoe · February 21, 2020

6 minutes ago, greenmax said:

Its an option thats minicsule to nonexistant on being implemented.

Even emergency evacuations (Mountain Rescue) critics will mention too, but its apart of the citizen paying their taxes.

Either way its very muddy waters.

It's not muddy at all. Policy and precedents abound, unless someone is abusing SAR resources. It's not fun to scramble out of bed in the middle of the night for a goose chase.

I believe all of those evacuated from Wuhan would be very glad to get out of there.

Cruise lines already have tons of lawyers.

Anything against Canadian authorities would have to show damages and causation. Evacuating those who wanted out of Wuhan... Those suing would be on the hook for legal expenses.

Bombastinator · February 21, 2020

11 minutes ago, greenmax said:

Its an option thats minicsule to nonexistant on being implemented.

Even emergency evacuations (Mountain Rescue) critics will mention too, but its apart of the citizen paying their taxes.

Either way its very muddy waters.

You’d be surprised how quickly little stuff adds up. Medical costs in particular. There’s a pretty good chance the evacuees could wind up money behind. Maybe way behind.

The concept that lawsuits can happen “for no reason at all” is somewhat narrowly false. There may be a FAKE reason, but there needs to be one, and finding out if the reason is fake or not is part of the suit. Generally it’s the first thing that does happen before the suit even really gets going. Suits for fake reasons are known as “frivolous lawsuits” and the penalties for bringing one can be quite harsh.

Canoe · February 21, 2020

4 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

What a lawsuit means is “someone is owed something that has not been accounted for, and a system should be used to find out what or how much” What may be missing is what the alternatives were: leave them where they were or just shoot and cremate them. They came out ahead. Already.

Exactly.

Wuhan evacuees who wanted out suing those who got them out?

Greenmax, that's not happening if they've a brain. And if they don't, it's dead in the water. I don't know if it would even reach court or just be handled by an admistration master.

greenmax · February 21, 2020

1 minute ago, Bombastinator said:

evacuees

The government could very screw over the evacuee's but it would be a news story nightmare for the pm. Anything is possible.

Canoe · February 21, 2020

On 2/21/2020 at 10:02 PM, greenmax said:

The government could very screw over the evacuee's but it would be a news story nightmare for the pm. Anything is possible.

Once the government said go, it was in the hands and trained and experienced professionals, not bureaucrats. As part of their ongoing duties, they would have already updated their procedures to reflect that potential need.

But for a lawsuit to have a chance of success, there has to be damages, causation and negligence - a foreseeable consequence. Judgment calls are excused if they don't meet the requirements of negligence, as judgment calls are required to function. In practice, if not clear, it becomes a pissing contest between experts.

Anything can happen, but it is highly unlikely with the bureaucrats out of the operation. And even then, this and many other related scenarios have been extensively planned for since the times of SARS and H1N1, with many bureaucrats also trained and experienced for their parts in responses. They know their part, and step back when it's time for others to do theirs.

***

Another spreading-event, or location, like the Diamond Princess.

https://twitter.com/ariahychen/status/1230676903859650560

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