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SansVarnic

Due to the nature of this topic, please keep cool heads and conversation On Topic.

Intentional Derailing, Political Rhetoric, or Arguing will result in removal of comments/replies and warnings issued.

 

The "No politics" rule will be enforced even harder. This will be last warning you get. If someone posts any political rhetoric (about parties, ideology, policy etc.), you will receive PM from moderator telling to step off the thread. As forum does not have functionality to do it better ways. If you continue to post ANYTHING after receiving PM, you will get warnings for not following staff instructions.

Posting news about what governments in your parts of world do in order to act on this crisis is fine, but will be looked case-by-case. (Updated 03/19/2020)

 

Remember the core values of this forum;

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  • Ensure a friendly atmosphere to our visitors and forum members.
  • Encourage the freedom of expression and exchange of information in a mature and responsible manner.
  • "Don't be a dick" - Wil Wheaton.
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ATTENTION: there is a covid 19 F@H event happening, you can find it HERE.

 

this is a good opportunity to help with research!

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The Feb 17 CCSE data reconciled exactly with the CNHC data!

Rather than waiting for the translation, I went right to the CNHC site. If anyone would like a look, here's the link

http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/202002/261f72a74be14c4db6e1b582133cf4b7.shtml

Such a nice looking font, for such a severe subject.

 

Severe took a bit of a jump up.

Counts in Wuhan and Hubei continue to drive the totals.

Numbers in the U.S. are not yet showing those who returned.

 

627649354_2019-nCoVgraphCases2020-02-17interim.thumb.png.b8709c27cd17b640a16311634adf876f.png

 

1922739835_2019-nCoVgraphDeathsRecovered2020-02-17-interim.thumb.png.e4682489e0b722155a516c950dab0c86.png

 

***

 

168901362_Covid-19CaseLoadwithResolved-ChinaHubeiWuhan-2020-02-17.png.5c55c688236392c7481b6779e2db9883.png1722881680_Covid-19CaseNewSevereResolved-ChinaHubeiWuhan-2020-02-17.png.df7b11fb9f392891dda87c53a12c93d4.png

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1 hour ago, wafflehaus said:

Did anyone else see Pacman barfing rainbows?

I was tempted to use yellow...

 

Outbreak in Japan "starting" a few days ago is linked to a party that was held on Jan. 18.

That long lead time and hidden carriers.

 

Pangolin not a close enough link to SARS-CoV-2 virus. Bat is closer. Looking for additional animals or other strains carried by Pangolin.

 

In addition to all the medical waste, a number of farmers in China are saying that there's no market for their raised animals and there is limited feed left for them. They'll have to be slaughtered and carcasses disposed of. Same for chicken eggs.

 

Spread of Covid-19 on cruise ship said to be accelerated due to no face masks for first six to seven days, crew delivering toys to cabins, crew serving meals (including after they're infected), close bunk sleeping for crew, an infected Japanese medical officer going around the ship to see passengers and delays before sick elderly were removed to shore.

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This doesn’t seem real. Feels like I’m watching scenes from the movie Contagion.

 

 


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1 hour ago, PhantomJaguar77 said:

This doesn’t seem real. Feels like I’m watching scenes from the movie Contagion.

I'd wondered what had happened to her. Last I heard she'd planned then made her escape, gone home, and when the police arrived she barricaded the door.

 

It's real. Think of the number of students that were in your high-school. Divide any of the case counts by that count, and try to envision that number of 'schools' of people, infected, sick, severe in ACU/ICU, dead (bagged or cremated).

 

There's an account, I forget where, of an elderly man who became infected. He killed himself (jumped?) so he wouldn't infect his wife.

 

**********************

  • I added the Projected Deaths, its calculation from a finding that 18% of those in Severe will die, as Deaths + 18% of Severe.
    • Assuming no more new cases (not realistic), that expects the disease will be fatal for a total of ~4,000 patients.
    • That's not counting the existing Confirmed patients that will become Severe in the next one to three weeks.
    • Hopefully there are treatments developed in time to reduce that percentage.
  • Since it's in range, I added Severe too.
  • Note: if Severe is the same from one day to the next, that means the New Severe case count equalled the count of those who died that day.

1553283779_2019-nCoVgraphDeathsRecovered2020-02-17-interim.thumb.png.3cbed4631d4cf04628c5dd4a86241486.png

 

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24 minutes ago, Canoe said:

It's real. Think of the number of students that were in your high-school. Divide any of the case counts by that count, and try to envision that number of 'schools' of people, infected, sick, severe in ACU/ICU, dead (bagged or cremated).

 

There's an account, I forget where, of an elderly man who became infected. He killed himself (jumped?) so he wouldn't infect his wife.

oof, i guess the deaths of a known film director and most of his family due to succumbing to the disease isn't helping with morale in the area too ._.

 

https://www.todayonline.com/8days/sceneandheard/entertainment/chinese-director-and-3-his-family-members-passed-away-after

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7 hours ago, VegetableStu said:

oof, i guess the deaths of a known film director and most of his family due to succumbing to the disease isn't helping with morale in the area too ._.

I'm seeing that account being used as a very public example of why home quarantine didn't work in Wuhan with something so contagious; mixing those infected living with the non-infected. Why they went for the extreme door-to-door roundup and quarantine. The numbers on that cruise ship sure show what happens when infected and non-infected are quarantined together - a super-spreading event. It appears that's what happened in Wuhan, distributed mixed self-quarantine, effectively a distributed super-spreading event. Like that cruise ship, the R0 numbers are significantly in Wuhan & Hubei than those reported in the rest of China and the rest of the world, which fortunately are significantly lower. 

 

It's too bad we can't know the numbers of what level of Pt. are in which facility in Wuhan. From the CNHC Update on Feb 17, for Wuhan:

  • currently 37,152 cases (lab tested plus those transferred from Suspected in that move) plus 1,799 Suspected (mild), for 38,951
  • 9,222 of those are Severe cases.

9,222 fitting one or more of: ICU care, Mechanical Ventilation, or have Severe Complications. With a number of hospitals being dedicated to Covid (other patients moved to a non-Covid hospital), plus 1,000 beds in new hospital and another 1,300 bed hospital scheduled (news on that?), where does which level of Pt. go? They requisitioned entire hotels, hangers and a conference centre. Where else did they utilize?

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Hubei reported 1,807 new cases (1,600 in Wuhan), 1,223 patients released from medical case (761 in Wuhan), 93 new deaths (72 in Wuhan), and currently has 50,338 cases (37,152 in Wuhan), including 10,970 severe cases (9,222 in Wuhan). Hubei has released 7,862 patients (4,219 in Wuhan), recorded 1,789 deaths (1,381 in Wuhan), had a total of 59,989 cases (42,752 in Wuhan). Hubei reported 788 new suspected cases (340 in Wuhan) and currently has a total of 4,194 suspected cases (1,799 in Wuhan).

 

Except for occasional blips, the Chinese data continues to be very "non-granular". lol

With CCSE polling every 15 minutes for the latest DXY numbers consolidated from near instant reports from multiple medical facilities across China, that's quite an accomplishment.

 

One senior British researcher said on a BBC show that he believes that outside of Hubei, the rest of China is not reporting all Covid Pt.s; that they're just reporting Covid Pt.s that have a known link to Hubei (or Wuhan? I don't remember which).

 

******************

 

One thing from the SARS playbook is that the viability of coronaviruses in droplets and on surfaces is reduced with cooler temperatures. Warmer summer temperatures and warmer climes may be a detriment. 

 

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An article I've just read related to numbers and CoVid-19 in the New York Times, which I find absolutely great in terms of insights and which explains what I'm trying to say since the beginning of this story when writing "Don't trust the numbers!"

I love my fellow Mathematicians ^o^

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/18/opinion/coronavirus-china-numbers.html

Full article copied in the spoiler at the end of the post.

 

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Numbers have a certain mystique: They seem precise, exact, sometimes even beyond doubt. But outside the field of pure mathematics, this reputation rarely is deserved. And when it comes to the coronavirus epidemic, buying into that can be downright dangerous.


This!

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The coronavirus might be blamed for the deaths of vulnerable people, especially seniors, already suffering from other illnesses, such as diabetes and other chronic conditions. On the other hand, some deaths will be attributed to other illnesses that might more accurately be ascribed to COVID-19.

Something I'm saying since the beginning... Between:

  • the wrongly attributed causes of deaths by mistake,
  • the volontarily wrongly attributed  causes of death,
  • the indirect deaths caused by the situation (non-access to treatment for previous sickness, ICU non-accessible, etc.)

And I totally agree with the conclusion:

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And so based on what we know so far, COVID-19 seems to be much less fatal than other coronavirus infections and diseases that turned into major epidemics in recent decades. The operative words here are “based on what we know so far — meaning, both no more and no less than that, and also that our take on the situation might need to change as more data come in.

Remember, too, that even if only a small percentage of the people infected with COVID-19 die in the end, the death toll in absolute numbers could still be dreadful if the total population of infected turns out to be very large.

However much we would like to know all the relevant facts about the coronavirus, we don’t know them right now, and we should accept the discomfort of that uncertainty. Which is all the more reason to abide by one of the things we do know at this point: You should wash your hands regularly.

 

Regarding a point mentioned in the article, there is one point I agree with him on the strictly mathematical and logical point of view, but have to disagree with him on the psychological aspect because of all the clues already disclosed in the different medias.

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...
And then, in addition to the uncertainty inherent in the basic numbers, there are the distortions unintentionally created by the way those numbers are reported by medical officials and presented by the media.

...

The fact that China suddenly broadened its criteria also raised fears that its earlier numbers might have been incorrect: too low, and perhaps deliberately so. National pride and the fear of economic costs or a popular backlash might have motivated underreporting, the suspicion went.

But the reasons for the shift could also be more mundane. Maybe the medical authorities in China didn’t report more infections previously because they couldn’t — because, say, they were short of reliable test kits (which they were). It’s possible that the numbers were fudged. But maybe they weren’t, or not as much as some people seem to fear. The change in criteria for what counts as an infection may indicate, not so much nefarious evidence of a cover-up now exposed, but the struggles of a local health care system overwhelmed by a sudden and colossal medical crisis.
...

I do agree that there are many reasons why I think the "real numbers" are not the "official numbers" as presented to us.

Some of these reasons are genuinely "innocent" as in doctors too tired, mistakes at the beginning of the diagnosis, not enough kits to really test for the CoVid-19.

That is one thing, that is on the human factor level.

On the other hand, there is also the CCP factor. And that is on a completely other level of manipulating and control.

For example, we now know that "Xi Jin Ping" has been made aware of the gravity of the situation since the 7th of January, officially. Not disclosing it immediately to the world, not stopping everything immediately is a political decision.

The decision of rounding up all the people who presented any approaching symptom to CoVid-19 in the same hangars is a political decision, which means that in there even people with a simple cold or running nose or a light fever are willingly put in a situation to catch it too and potentially die from it.

Sending back home people who have been diagnosed and tested positive to CoVid-19 and so the possibility to infect their family members, is also a political decision.

 

These 2 levels of "mistakes" are both responsible of the situation "we" and the "Chinese Population" are in right now.

I mean... As of today you have more than 10% of the Chinese population who is going to be in a drastic quarantine in residence in China.

150,000,000 people!

 

And frankly? Yes, this is right! In my opinion it is better to be quarantined at home or in a hotel (in order to not contaminate your family) or on a cruise ship and be constantly monitored by professionals (as they were on the japanese cruise ship) and when/if you show symptoms of sickness immediately sent to hospital to be efficiently treated and taken care of than be moved around constantly and spread the little buggers happily around.

And let's not talk about all these passengers who were released in Cambodia and happily shook hands and breathed out their buggers and now we have people happily around the world.

Truly, I wouldn't be surprised if later we learn that all these sick people have been released because the cruise ship company wanted to be paid because oftheir immobilized ships and so cost a tremendoulsy humoungous sum of money with the ships not cruising the sunny sees with happy vacationers onboard.

Sick people onboard? Bad advertisement and costly (in present and in the future).

 

Wouldn't be surprised either if the Diamond Princess suddenly changes names in the future.


Full article:

Spoiler

 

Quote

We’re Reading the Coronavirus Numbers Wrong

Up-to-the-minute reports and statistics can unintentionally distort the facts.

By John Allen Paulos

Mr. Paulos is a professor of mathematics.

Feb. 18, 2020

 

Numbers have a certain mystique: They seem precise, exact, sometimes even beyond doubt. But outside the field of pure mathematics, this reputation rarely is deserved. And when it comes to the coronavirus epidemic, buying into that can be downright dangerous.

Naturally, everyone wants to know how deadly COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, is. The technical term for that is the case fatality rate — which is, put simply, the number of people who have died from the disease (D) divided by the total number of people who were infected with it (I), or D/I. As of Tuesday morning, at least 1,873 people were thought to have died from the disease worldwide and 72,869 people to have been infected.

But those figures may not mean what you think.

The number of deaths (D) seems like it should be easy enough to determine: After all, dead is dead. And yet ascribing a cause of death can be tricky.

The coronavirus might be blamed for the deaths of vulnerable people, especially seniors, already suffering from other illnesses, such as diabetes and other chronic conditions. On the other hand, some deaths will be attributed to other illnesses that might more accurately be ascribed to COVID-19.

 

Even more problematic is figuring out the total number of infected people (I) — call that the mystery of the denominator. Patients who have tested positive and are hospitalized are included in that tally, of course. But what about those who are being treated without formally having been tested? Or those who might be infected and yet display no symptoms?

Another complicating factor is the remaining number of unresolved or indeterminate cases: Medical experts still aren’t sure, for example, how long the infection’s incubation period may be.

And then, in addition to the uncertainty inherent in the basic numbers, there are the distortions unintentionally created by the way those numbers are reported by medical officials and presented by the media.

 

Last week, the authorities of Hubei, the province in China at the center of the epidemic, revised their definition of what it means to be infected by the new coronavirus: On Thursday, they started including people who displayed symptoms associated with COVID-19 — coughing, a fever, difficulty breathing — even if those people hadn’t been tested or had tested negative for the virus. As a result, the number of new daily cases increased by a factor of nine overnight.

But what did that spike reveal, in fact?

If the daily tally of newly infected people increases, does that mean the disease actually is spreading at that moment? That it is more contagious than we had known?

 

And if the number of deaths — or the ratio of deaths to infections — jumps from one day to the next, does that mean the disease has just gotten more lethal? Or that it actually is more lethal than we thought it was the day before?

Not necessarily, though it may seem or feel that way. The shifts might be short-term adjustments or simply the effects, or artifacts, of delayed disclosures — a kind of numerical optical illusion.

Yet when news outlets reported last week, after the revision in what counts as an infection, the largest jump in reported cases “in a single day and more than twice the previous record high,” readers could be forgiven for assuming that the situation had just taken a turn for the worse. Even articles that stated the broader circumstances of the increase could be misleading: Some, by announcing in their headlines a “dramatic spike” or a “surge” in the number of cases; others, by discussing the swell while stating that local officials had been sacked for it.

The fact that China suddenly broadened its criteria also raised fears that its earlier numbers might have been incorrect: too low, and perhaps deliberately so. National pride and the fear of economic costs or a popular backlash might have motivated underreporting, the suspicion went.

But the reasons for the shift could also be more mundane. Maybe the medical authorities in China didn’t report more infections previously because they couldn’t — because, say, they were short of reliable test kits (which they were). It’s possible that the numbers were fudged. But maybe they weren’t, or not as much as some people seem to fear. The change in criteria for what counts as an infection may indicate, not so much nefarious evidence of a cover-up now exposed, but the struggles of a local health care system overwhelmed by a sudden and colossal medical crisis.

Last Thursday, the Hubei authorities also reported a leap in the new daily tally of deaths: 242, compared with 94 for Wednesday. That’s a big jump, but not nearly as big as the increase in the number of newly infected people over the same period. Which could be a cause for some measure of relief: The disease’s lethality would seem to have decreased or be lower than was previously thought. Yet that’s not the takeaway likely to have prevailed.

Some of the reporting has amounted to a set of contradictory pronouncements, confusing at best. Journalists could display more critical distance and a modicum of skepticism toward the data they relay, instead of turning the media coverage into a hall of mirrors.

One major problem is the doing of no one in particular. The story about the coronavirus’s spread is evolving quickly, with medical authorities in China and elsewhere disclosing figures daily (or more often), and the media reporting the information immediately to satisfy the fast-paced, staccato rhythms of publishing cycles. But up-to-the-minute, blow-by-blow accounts of hard data can create mistaken impressions about the underlying facts, even if both the data and the accounts are accurate.

Last Thursday, a surge in the number of infections was reported, because of that change in official criteria. On Monday, China announced a drop in the number of new cases for the third consecutive day. Now what should we make of that?

Constant on-the-nose reporting, however much it seems to serve transparency, has limitations, too.

It’s a short-term, and shortsighted, approach that’s difficult to resist, especially when people are afraid and the authorities are taking draconian actions. It’s only natural to compare and contrast whatever hard facts are available. And yet it’s especially dangerous to do that precisely because people are so anxious, and fear can trick the mind.

A view from a loftier perch — a month’s, or even just a week’s, perspective — would, and will, produce far more reliable information.

As of Tuesday, the case fatality rate of COVID-19 appeared to be about 2.5 percent. That’s in keeping with what it was, for example, from the beginning of the outbreak up to Jan. 28. By comparison, the case fatality rate for the seasonal flu in the United States ranges between 0.10 percent and 0.18 percent. For SARS, it’s about 10 percent and for MERS, about 35 percent. For Ebola, it has varied between 25 percent and 90 percent, depending on outbreaks, averaging approximately 50 percent.

And so based on what we know so far, COVID-19 seems to be much less fatal than other coronavirus infections and diseases that turned into major epidemics in recent decades. The operative words here are “based on what we know so far — meaning, both no more and no less than that, and also that our take on the situation might need to change as more data come in.

Remember, too, that even if only a small percentage of the people infected with COVID-19 die in the end, the death toll in absolute numbers could still be dreadful if the total population of infected turns out to be very large.

However much we would like to know all the relevant facts about the coronavirus, we don’t know them right now, and we should accept the discomfort of that uncertainty. Which is all the more reason to abide by one of the things we do know at this point: You should wash your hands regularly.

John Allen Paulos is a professor of mathematics at Temple University and the author of “A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper” and, most recently, “A Numerate Life.”

 

 

 

 

Edited by Cora_Lie
Posted too early by accident, I didn^t finish writing my post
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It's largely as said, and even more complicated.

And we don't have enough info to know what is true, and not even enough to know what is credible in some sub-topics around Covid-19.

 

9 hours ago, Cora_Lie said:

...On the other hand, there is also the CCP factor. And that is on a completely other level of manipulating and control.

For example, we now know that "Xi Jin Ping" has been made aware of the gravity of the situation since the 7th of January, officially. Not disclosing it immediately to the world, not stopping everything immediately is a political decision.

The first of that is a given. Makes the huge Soviet USSR machine look like amateurs.

 

While it's possible, we don't know that he was actually made aware back then. As various news reports speculate, it's also possible that Wuhan & provincial level bureaucrats failed to recognize the scale or threat, and once they did they feared bearing bad news to those above, trusting/hoping that they'd get a handle on the situation before they'd have to send it up. It's also been suggested by analysts that follow China, that narrative he was informed is made up, as he needs to make it seem that he was aware, hence in control, in order to manage fear/control of the population. We'll likely never know the truth of that. So much we'll never know.

 

I'm going to change your order for the next two...

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Sending back home people who have been diagnosed and tested positive to CoVid-19 and so the possibility to infect their family members, is also a political decision.

Politics or not, there's the reality of the number of people involved vs. the physical beds and physical space that existed.

 

Early January saw numbers that were concerning that something 'SARS-like' was definitely up, but once mid January came around, it was simply the huge numbers that presented at the hospitals that made it impossible to not send people back home. There was no place to put them.

 

Not only did they send people home, they sent hundreds soon thousands of people home who'd been waiting and were unable to be seen! Of those seen, they sent home:

  • those who didn't have Covid (but may have been in incubation, or caught it while there),
  • those who were diagnosed with Covid Mild (but not lab-confirmed) sent home to self-quarantine, and
  • a number (unknown) - presumably with more severe symptoms - sent home who would show as lab-confirmed after those test results were later available.

Of those sent home, that included all those who became infected going to/from the hospital or while waiting to be seen or who had accompanied people to hospital. In subsequent days, they scrambled to move Pt.s around and designate some hospitals as non-Covid and others for Covid. But all throughout that, those infected (in incubation or presenting with symptoms), were transmitting the disease to others, increasing the number of cases they'd soon have to deal with.

 

Once the number of infected, hence contagious, reached a 'critical mass', the system simply could not handle those numbers. Take the numbers they have reported and try to fit them in the seven Wuhan hospitals... Politicians and bureaucrats can say what they like, that number of infected just don't fit. Hence the flurry of a pre-fab hospital build and re-purposed space. And I don't see how that space we know of can fit all of those infected.

 

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The decision of rounding up all the people who presented any approaching symptom to CoVid-19 in the same hangars is a political decision, which means that in there even people with a simple cold or running nose or a light fever are willingly put in a situation to catch it too and potentially die from it.

Ultimately it is a political decision (need to be seen to be taking decisive and 'effective' appearing action). But it's muddied by the huge spreading that resulted by the self/home quarantine while mixed in with the uninfected that simply didn't work due to the huge numbers of infected involved - it effectively turned much if not most of Wuhan into a super-spreading event. This is seen by the reported numbers' R0 (and if they're under-reporting, the R0 would be even higher). Many would not have the knowledge, materials, capability, means or space to follow something like the Covid home-care protocols outlined at the CDC. A number of home-quarantined infecting others is inevitable, and as the reported numbers show, apparently a rather high number (again, if they're under-reporting, that would be even higher). And reports going around of people with symptoms self-quarantining to avoid the hospitals likely didn't help matters.

 

With the round-up, I'd like to think authorities were smart enough to (want to) sort and segregate Pt.s somehow, but due to the huge size of the roundup and speed with which it was done, even if they were attempting that, it's guaranteed there would be errors. And any effectiveness of any sorting is highly questionable due to the incubation time, as someone with a cold's sniffles may also be incubating the disease and hence contagious to the uninfected around them that do only have sniffles. The cold temperatures reported in some large facilities may have been a SARS-like attempt to limit the viability of the virus once expelled, but not getting a facility heated up before occupied is more plausible. However, do note that large buildings have a heating capacity that is calculated using the expected heat from the number of occupants. Some buildings in cold climates do not even have a heating system, instead getting their overnight heat by leaving the lights (their ballasts) on overnight and the building warming up as people arrive for work in the morning, with Monday morning being rather chilly. 

Apart from the politics of the actions, IF we ever get the data, time will tell if the round-up quarantine: helped reduce the spread, had no net change in spread, or possibly even had a net increase in spread. We'll likely never know.

 

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And frankly? Yes, this is right! In my opinion it is better to be quarantined at home or in a hotel (in order to not contaminate your family) ...

As covered above and elsewhere, due to the nature of the hugely contagious disease, the huge upswing in those infected showed that self-quarantined at home in Wuhan didn't work there, with significant numbers of family/home members subsequently infected (even with medical reports of different strains within the same household).

 

In a hotel? Yes, that are doing that in Wuhan, with reports that the government had requisitioned a number of hotels for that use. (I've not seen any reports on how the hotels were used, staffed or outfitted for such a purpose).

 

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or on a cruise ship and be constantly monitored by professionals (as they were on the japanese cruise ship) and when/if you show symptoms of sickness immediately sent to hospital to be efficiently treated and taken care of than be moved around constantly and spread the little buggers happily around.

On the cruise ship they were not immediately removed to shore to appropriate facilities. Reports are there was a significant delay. Reports are the confinement of a mix of infected and uninfected crew and passengers, with crew interacting with passengers, and the delays getting people off for appropriate care, resulted in "spread the little buggers happily around") for a significant spreading of the disease, even by one of the Japanese officials who became infected. In record time, a huge infected number for the ship population, for a huge and record R0 number for Covid-19, significantly higher than even Wuhan.

 

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And let's not talk about all these passengers who were released in Cambodia and happily shook hands and breathed out their buggers and now we have people happily around the world.

Yup. Already numerous reports of various authorities scrambling to catch up with where they are and where they went and who were their 'close contacts'.

 

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Sick people onboard? Bad advertisement and costly (in present and in the future). Wouldn't be surprised either if the Diamond Princess suddenly changes names in the future.

You're certainly not alone in expecting that. People wondering if they'll try to do it quietly, or try to explain it with a 'complete refitting and upgrading' so 'it's really not the same ship anymore'. They may need to re-brand the entire line, or even transfer the owning & running of that line to other line. Cruise ships as a desired holiday, or business, may not recover to where they were prior to Covid-19. I wonder what their stock prices are doing.

 

So much we don't know yet.

I've seen credible researchers propose that the tip-of-the-iceberg factor may 3x, 5x or even 10x. Some say for all Chinese numbers, others say for the non-Hubei numbers. They're waiting upon more reliable data to refine and support a factor.

We'll likely never know the true count.

 

It's oddly specific that I've only seen 3, 5 or 10 suggested, no other numbers like 4, 6, 7, etc.. Perhaps after outliers they're working with the same or similar data/methods/models.

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One thing that’s making me teary-eyed is hearing about the pets left behind by the owners because they are quarantined in the hospital in Hubei province.

 

 


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On 2/19/2020 at 12:49 AM, PhantomJaguar77 said:

One thing that’s making me teary-eyed is hearing about the pets left behind by the owners because they are quarantined in the hospital in Hubei province.

And those turned loose by owners, in fear due to the original zoonotic link, or due to the 'lockdown' access or no work/limited funds meaning they no longer had food for them.

 

***

 

For Feb 18, 2020, the CCSE data and CNHC data match very well, but not exact. They're the same for Hubei, but CCSE reports 48 more Confirmed and CHNC reports 2 more deaths. Very close.

 

I was very happy to dodge pattern matching and let google do the translation of the CNHC Update report! ?

As an example, the section on Hubei and Wuhan, as google renders it.

Quote

There were 1693 new confirmed cases in Hubei (1660 in Wuhan), 1266 new cases cured and discharged (676 in Wuhan), 132 new deaths (116 in Wuhan), and 50633 confirmed cases (38020 in Wuhan). Among them, 11,246 were severe cases (9562 in Wuhan). A total of 9,128 discharged patients were cured (4895 in Wuhan), a total of 1921 deaths (1497 in Wuhan), and a total of 61,682 confirmed cases (44,412 in Wuhan). There were 596 new suspected cases (234 in Wuhan) and 3462 suspected cases (1649 in Wuhan).

 

Note: a good example in looking at graphs, is to compare Severe and Recovered on these two. The numbers are identical, but do to the presentation ratio due to the graphs covering a very different Y range, one or the other may result in a different look&feel if one isn't careful.

 

The drop in Suspected cases is very straight... But that could be explained by the number of cases that staff can review in a day. The straight line in cases in Wuhan is, well, interesting...

 

 

645194300_2019-nCoVgraphCases2020-02-18interim.thumb.png.e67bfc8dd0a836ad3e7064c8dbede271.png

 

739889981_2019-nCoVgraphDeathsRecovered2020-02-18-interim.thumb.png.211030a446e189df503cba8bd175e6f0.png

 

***

 

1900535859_Covid-19CaseNewSevereResolved-ChinaHubeiWuhan-2020-02-18.png.082ee1a8707985a879e99779a9b68826.png

 

 

361200399_Covid-19CaseLoadwithResolved-ChinaHubeiWuhan-2020-02-18.png.9c44303d42f56af3729a73b138a1e29b.png

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Diamond Princess

  • Lowest population entity on the case list outside of Mainland China
  • Highest infected count outside of Mainland China
  • Over six and a half times the next highest count.
  • Outlier, Super-Spreading Event
  • doubt we'll see it rechristened Super R0!
  • But Japan didn't have to count them as they 'remained on water'.

1175930896_DiamondPrincessakaSuperR0!Febuary182020.thumb.png.8423daacec03652f5de9eb083814c8e7.png

Remove the extreme R0 outlier so we can compare the others.

 

1290497268_GlobalCasesbycountry-regionnon-mainlandChina-Feb182020.thumb.png.cb08bb645f758b937132cc9b8c4bff6f.png

 

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On 2/9/2020 at 7:50 PM, Canoe said:

masks

I actually saw a person today with a mask, I was jokingly stopped, said you got the coronavisus because your wearing a mask and walked backwards away from the person. Those masks dont do anything for the coronavirus yet more and more people are wearing them because of mass hysteria. Before I'd only see the rare asian wearing a mask.

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3 hours ago, greenmax said:

I actually saw a person today with a mask, I was jokingly stopped, said you got the coronavisus because your wearing a mask and walked backwards away from the person. Those masks dont do anything for the coronavirus yet more and more people are wearing them because of mass hysteria. Before I'd only see the rare asian wearing a mask.

Well, remember that during the outbreak of SARS, another coronavirus, a doctor did a study of infection rates of hospital staff (an exposed environment), and was surprised to find that those wearing a mask or respirator, didn't matter which, had a 85% lower infection rate. As a mask's ability to block inhaled particulates is poor, and same for a respirator unless sized and fitted properly (which most people do not know how to do), it strongly suggests the benefit may not be from filtering, but in changing people's behaviour. They're blocked from touching their mouth and nose, and/or perhaps they get a reminder from touching or wearing, that keeps them more aware of preventative protocols, like Wash Your Hands!!!

 

And be careful assuming. They may have, or had, something else contagious, like the flu, and are wearing it to protect others.

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WHO is ramping up some. (emphasis mine)

  • Quote

     

    • WHO Operations Support and Logistics (OSL) continues to gather and assess the needs of Member States for critical items such as personal protective equipment (PPE). ... Due to the growing demand and consumption of PPE, OSL is collaborating with WHO disease specialists to develop and disseminate a guiding document on the rational use of PPE.
    • ... the market for PPE continues to experience unprecedented demand. Government export restrictions have continued to limit the supply of products across borders.

    • On 14 February, OSL started the dispatch of COVID-19 laboratory testing kits for 56 countries. As of 17 February, 37 shipments have been dispatched to 34 countries and three regional offices.

    • The WHO global supply team had already dispatched 28 PPE shipments totalling more than 12 000 kg to priority countries in the Western Pacific, South-East Asia and African regions. Another 24 shipments are being processed this week to cover other priority countries.
    • WHO has prepared disease commodity package that includes an essential list of biomedical equipment,medicines and supplies necessary to care for patients with 2019-nCoV. (~edit: seems they're still using the interim name...)

 

***

 

On 2/19/2020 at 7:23 AM, oskar23 said:

Im interested in charts from Wuhan where they burn dead bodies. Does even anyone talk about it? 

Sure. All sorts of conspiracy addicts worried about that. Started with reports that the crematorium(s) are working around the clock. They're using the public satellite tools for fire spotting and various combustion gasses to "discover" where "the bodies are being burned".

 

While the sat images are interesting, like some UFO "enthusiasts", where every light in the sky is a UFO, these people conclude every map hit must be body burning. Some even delude themselves with all sorts of 'logic'. Acknowledging the usual need for cremations, there's disregard for industrial, commercial and municipal processing, let alone all of the new requirements for complete incineration of the hugely increased amounts of medical waste (with crematoriums a credible place to generate the required temperatures to safely incinerate medical waste as their usual medical incinerators are likely overloaded), possible similar treatment for residential waste from infected residential blocks, dead animals and meat products that have gone to waste.

 

Their posts and even a news paper article are great if you need to teach a class what Confirmation Bias is. Actually, that news paper article makes a 'rigorous' attempt - it's a great classic example. Part makes you want to sigh, but others just lol

 

***

 

Latest on the Diamond Princess debacle.

Quote

74% asymtomatic in new batch: of 88 more Princess cases, 65 people were identified as asymptomatic pathogen carriers. The diagnoses bring the total number of cases from the ship to 542 out of 2,404 people who have been tested” (22%)

(edit: originally carried about 3,700 passengers and crew members. )

 

Quote

An initial group of about 500 people were to leave the boat on the first day of what the Japanese authorities have said will be a three-day operation to offload those who have tested negative for the virus and do not have symptoms. Passengers who shared cabins with infected patients have been ordered to remain on the ship.

 

***

 

New claim that outside of Hubei, China will only report/record a Pt. as Covid-19 if they are from Hubei.

This is similar to the following. Might be corroborating, or may be from the same source.

On 2/18/2020 at 6:23 PM, Canoe said:

... One senior British researcher said on a BBC show that he believes that outside of Hubei, the rest of China is not reporting all Covid Pt.s; that they're just reporting Covid Pt.s that have a known link to Hubei (or Wuhan? I don't remember which). ... 

 

Of 126 people flown from Wuhan to Frankfurt, symptom based screening failed to detect two who subsequently had confirmed positive test results for SARS-COV-2.

10.1056/NEJMc2001899

 

Alleged, not confirmed.

Quote

2500 Chinese citizens will land in Italy from Zhejiang province (the fourth in number of infected) without any systematical control or even quarantine! They prepared a tiny structure with some professionals that could test/isolate people returning from China but no quarantine. The governor of the region has declared : "We have to be more concerned about influenza than Coronavirus".

 

Quote

Hubei Province is sweeping for unidentified coronavirus cases thru purchases of fever and cough medicines at physical drug stores and online. Those who bought the drugs since Jan 20 will be investigated.

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Latest on the Diamond Princess debacle.

Quote

Kentaro Iwata, professor at the infectious diseases division of Japan's Kobe University, described the situation on board as "completely inadequate in terms of infection control".

 

After visiting the ship, Prof Iwata posted a video to YouTube stating that the quarantine measures he witnessed failed to separate the infected from the healthy.

 

The expert said he was more afraid of catching the virus on board than he had been working in the field in Africa during the Ebola epidemic and in China during the Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) outbreak.

His account of poor practices is astounding.

Red tape circuis is at the beginning. Account of on ship starts at 4:00.

"Completely inadequate", mixed PPE with non PPE people, eating with gloves on, ...

"Not very surprised to see many new positive PPRs broadcasted every day and hundreds of people got infected"

 

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9 hours ago, oskar23 said:

Im interested in charts from Wuhan where they burn dead bodies. Does even anyone talk about it? 

cremation is a thing for ethnic chinese in general, so i'm not sure what's different in this case ._.

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Student dorms/hostels requisitioned for quarantine use.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5Nk6guHe4c

 

Appears to be happening in Singapore too

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qt_WBXQ3H4


 

Quote

 

Footage appearing to show people held in quarantine in rows of beds in a makeshift facility in Wuhan, has been shared across social media. The video, which has not been fully verified, has been shared across social media and was posted on the account of a writer and self-declared activist source outside China.

 

If it's not Wuhan quarantine, I don't know what event it could be of.

Most people appear to be dressed very warmly. Like SARS, may be kept cooler to reduce viability of expelled virus. This should be seen.

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3 minutes ago, Canoe said:

Appears to be happening in Singapore too

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qt_WBXQ3H4

Quote

CNAhttps://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/wuhan-virus-hostels-nus-ntu-smu-quarantine-university-students-12357980?cid=youtube_cna_social_29012018_cna

 

The hostels are NUS' Prince George's Park Residences, NTU's Graduate Hall 1 and SMU's 83 Prinsep Street. Mr Ong said most students - including foreigners - affected will be transferred to other hostels on campus.  Local students at the affected hostel in SMU will be asked to stay home as the university does not have enough hostel facilities, he said. "SMU is in the city centre, so I hope it will not pose too much of an inconvenience," he added.

 

"I apologise to students for the inconvenience, I seek their understanding. This is part of the national response," he continued. "We hope it won't happen, but should there be more contact tracing and confirmed cases, then we will need the facilities. So, it is better now before it happens that we get the facilities ready."

 

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19 hours ago, Canoe said:

If it's not Wuhan quarantine, I don't know what event it could be of.

Most people appear to be dressed very warmly. Like SARS, may be kept cooler to reduce viability of expelled virus. This should be seen.

 

Looks like it's in a school gym (at least from the painted lines you see on the floor) ;

image.thumb.png.e47ab426e71dd2526e4f6624ad350571.png

 

20 hours ago, Canoe said:

Latest on the Diamond Princess debacle.

*snip*

Funny thing is, I heard that last week, the local CBC radio station had an interview with local residents stuck on the boat, and one of them is working as a biological safety specialist and she was pointing out all sorts of issues, she wasn't blaming the staff and she said it's obvious they were never trained to face this type of situation, but they should have support from the Japanese gov and their company, and sadly it doesn't seem to be the case.


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On 2/17/2020 at 3:51 PM, wkdpaul said:

... this morning were talking about 454 cases on the Diamond Princess, ...

Diamond Princess infected still growing...

Quote

Japanese health officials said 79 new coronavirus cases have been detected on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, taking the total to 621.

 

Quote

From the start, experts raised questions about quarantine on the ship. Passengers weren’t confined to their rooms until 5 February. The day before, as officials screened them, onboard events continued, including dances, quiz games and an exercise class, one passenger said.

Quote

China is taking steps to stimulate production in manufacturing hubs by easing infection control measures.

 

***

 

The plasma of the recovered seems to be providing some benefit.

Quote

Convalescent plasma has been proven “effective and life-saving” against other infectious diseases, including rabies and diphtheria, Dr Mike Ryan, head of the WHO health emergencies programme, told reporters in Geneva.

Quote

It is a very important area to pursue. Because what hyperimmune globulin does is it concentrates the antibodies in a recovered patient. You are essentially giving the new victim’s immune system a boost of antibodies to hopefully get them through the very difficult phase.

So it must be given at the right time, because it mops up the virus in the system, and it just gives the new patient’s immune system a vital push at the time it needs it. But it has to be carefully timed and it’s not always successful.

Ryan added: “So it is a very important area of discovery, and I believe they are starting trials on that in China. But it is a very valid way to explore therapeutics, especially when we don’t have vaccines and we don’t have specific antivirals.”

As well as using plasma therapies, the Chinese doctors are also trying antiviral drugs licensed for use against other infections to see if they might help.

Scientists are testing two antiviral drugs and preliminary results are due in weeks, while the head of a Wuhan hospital had said plasma infusions from recovered patients had shown some encouraging preliminary results.

 

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6 minutes ago, Canoe said:

The plasma of the recovered seems to be providing some benefit.

 

Plasma based vaccines are pretty crude too.  It’s saying “there’s something in this pile of stuff doing really interesting things”. I look forward to further research into that plasma.  They may find some amazing stuff.


Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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1 minute ago, Bombastinator said:

... I look forward to further research into that plasma.  They may find some amazing stuff.

"Hey! Look at this. You wouldn't believe that this guy was eating! Maybe he ate & slept at his keyboard."

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The following is in French, sorry ;

 

Audio interview with the lady I was talking about earlier (couple stuck on the Diamond Princess), at around 6m is where she talks about her specialization, check from the start to hear all the issues they're having on the Diamond Princess ;
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/premiere/emissions/tout-un-matin/episodes/454738/rattrapage-du-mardi-11-fevrier-2020/29
 


Audio interview with the daughter of a couple that was on the Diamond Princess, they were moved in quarantine in a Japanese military hospital (still in French) ;

 

They mentioned the doctor they're seeing is an ophthalmologist that doesn't speak English, the wife has health problems and they can't communicate with the staff to explain that she can't eat because of her gastric issues and her medication ran out ... They're actually afraid that they're going to die in there because of lack of care, pretty scary!

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/premiere/emissions/tout-un-matin/segments/entrevue/155427/coronavirus-covid-19-quarantaine-chantal-diane-bernard-menard


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