corona virus

[Canoe]

Waiting for the CNHC daily update for Feb 19.

But I have this from the CCSE data.

 

Diamond Princess showing 621 infected.

Projection ~same at 697 to 851.

 

• The surprise is Iran jumping onto the list with two Deaths.
  • No detection/reporting until dead.
  • Two elderly in Qom. Wikipedia says 7th largest city in Iran, at 1.2 million, Feb averages high of 10.2 C and 0.6C for those who are looking at spread/viability by temperature.
  • Unknown if these are Import or Community Transmission. Authorities are investigating how they contacted the virus.
  • A report that a hospital in Qom was designated to handle coronavirus patients and some officials are calling for quarantining those close to the patients.

 

• CDC study gives a ~1% asympotomatic rate. And another study has verified that viral loads during asymtomatic incubation period support transmission.
• Concerns that outbreaks in South Korea and Japan have reached the point that Wuhan was at in early January.
• Chinese CDC says study of 72,000 cases:

  • The research team determined that the virus is highly contagious, having spread from a single city to the entire country in just one month, and despite authorities’ extreme containment efforts, including citywide lockdowns.

  • In addition, they found that COVID-19 is not life-threatening for over 80% of patients, and that older patients with preexisting health conditions are more likely to die.

  • The retrospective study also reveals significant delays by Wuhan and Hubei officials in identifying and reporting cases, especially during the early stages of the outbreak.

  • For example, the analysis found that over 5,500 of Hubei’s confirmed cases might have fallen ill before Jan. 20. Officially, however, the provincial health commission had reported just 270 confirmed cases by this date, suggesting a diagnosis rate of less than 5%.

  • The study also said that 105 infections had occurred before Dec. 31 — the date Wuhan’s health commission first acknowledged an “unexplained illness” in just 27 patients.

  • http://www.sixthtone.com/news/1005213/105-people-were-infected-with-covid-19-by-dec.-31%2C-study-says
• Concerned about future outbreaks from zoonotic transmission, there's still debate about early connections to the Wuhan seafood market or not. Not yet clear.
• Reports that the Chinese discharge criteria remain at 3 days afebrile, improvement in symptoms and imaging, and two negative PCR tests at least 1 day apart. "Quite strict, which accounts for the low discharge numbers."
• Complaints that China stopped reporting the detailed by City data, and has changed their case definitions again. The Feb 19 data has just been released, I see what it says. (Well, google will tell me what it says...)
• Related: Apple Q2 revenue guidance: could lose 40-50% of its Q2 revenue.

 

[Canoe]

The Feb 19th graphs have to wait. There's a number and translation anomaly. I have to wait and see if files are updated overnight.

After going to the CNHC site and doing a select and copy, I typed in google, and google immediately went to "Translate, Chinese" lol

 

 

[LogicalDrm]

*** Thread cleaned ***

 

Part 2.

 

Lets address this first:

On 2/15/2020 at 1:23 AM, Canoe said:

After the thread was "moderated", I can't find the post that described a way to make your own filter.

You can use forum search within threads. I know from your editing style that you already use desktop version which gives full site features.

 

***

 

Some notes.

 

This is forum. A place of sharing and discussing. While we don't require you to back your claims (be them facts or created facts or whatever), it is appreciated. For good journalism and research skills include that you make clear difference between data directly from source, your interpretation of the data and your own conclusions/knowledge.

 

As we aren't peer-reviewed journal nor news site with editor or editorial board, we can't verify or claim to host all accurate data. Reading, interpreting, understanding and argumentation based on what is posted on the forum is up to each member and visitor themselves. Just like any other site on the internet, this forum can host misinformation which isn't corrected or removed by the staff. Thats not part of our tasks. We expect our members to keep each other in check, with respectful manners.

 

If you have issue, use Report-function and moderators will review it.

 

As reminder, political discussion is prohibited. Thats one sure way to get thread, even as current and active as this one, locked. And it only needs one bad actor to lay a bait and one "smart" person to take the bait.

[Canoe]

On 2/20/2020 at 4:15 AM, Canoe said:

The surprise is Iran jumping onto the list with two Deaths.

AP report in the WP

Quote

• Iran said Thursday that three more people have been infected
• they did not appear to have had any contact with Chinese nationals.
• Iranian authorities were now investigating the origin of the disease, and its possible link with religious pilgrims from Pakistan or other countries.

which makes them look like Community Transmission instead of Import

Quote

• All schools and universities, including religious Shiite seminaries, were shut down in the holy city of Qom, according to the official IRNA news agency.
• roughly 60 Iranian students evacuated from Wuhan had been quarantined upon their return to Iran and were discharged after 14 days without any health problems.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iran-announces-3-new-cases-of-coronavirus-after-2-deaths/2020/02/20/eff2f180-53d4-11ea-80ce-37a8d4266c09_story.html

 

Quote

• A religious group in South Korea has been identified as a coronavirus hotbed, officials say, amid a sharp rise in confirmed cases in the country.
• It is believed that the infections among members of the Temple of the Tabernacle of the Testimony sect in the city of Daegu are linked to one woman.
  • South Korean health officials believe that the infections are linked to a 61-year-old woman who tested positive for the virus earlier this week.
  • The Korean Centre for Disease Control says the woman - who has not been identified - had contact with 166 people, who were asked to self-quarantine.
• The sect accounts for 30 of 53 new cases, with officials warning of an unprecedented crisis in the country.
• South Korea also confirmed its first death from the virus

***

Diamond Princess

• The ocean liner was carrying 3,700 people in total and passengers who tested negative for the virus began leaving the ship on Wednesday after a 14-day quarantine.
• Hundreds have now disembarked from the cruise liner docked in Yokohama. Others are set to leave over the next two days.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51572137

 

Quote

• Two Japanese passengers who contracted the new coronavirus on board a cruise ship quarantined in Japan have died, officials say.
• Both were in their 80s with underlying health conditions. They were being treated in hospitals after being taken off the Diamond Princess last week.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51568496

 

***

 

https://doi.org/10.1080/22221751.2020.1729071

Molecular and serological investigation of 2019-nCoV infected patients: implication of multiple shedding routes
 

Quote

 

In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) caused an outbreak in Wuhan, China, and soon spread to other parts of the world. It was believed that 2019-nCoV was transmitted through respiratory tract and then induced pneumonia, thus molecular diagnosis based on oral swabs was used for confirmation of this disease. Likewise, patient will be released upon two times of negative detection from oral swabs.

We found the presence of 2019-nCoV in anal swabs and blood as well, and more anal swab positives than oral swab positives in a later stage of infection, suggesting shedding and thereby transmitted through oral–fecal route. We also showed serology test can improve detection positive rate thus should be used in future epidemiology. Our report provides a cautionary warning that 2019-nCoV may be shed through multiple routes.

• viral nucleotide can be found in anal swab or blood even if it cannot be detected in oral swabs. It should be noted that although swabs may be negative, the patient might still be viremic.
• Above all, we strongly suggest using viral IgM and IgG serological test to confirm an infection, considering the unreliable results from oral swabs detection.

 

Takeaways include:

• Fecal Transmission likely
• Oral swabs not definitive to detect infection.
  • Missed detections in early stages of outbreak, due to use of oral swabs
• Blood test will detect infections that oral swabs don't.

 

[Canoe]

19 hours ago, Canoe said:

... There's some hmmms going on about how perfect the progression of various numbers are. ...

Clear as mud

 

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1230139831377944579

Quote

... Barron’s re-created the regression analysis of total deaths caused by the virus, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of last year, and found similarly high variance. We ran it by Melody Goodman, associate professor of biostatistics at New York University’s School of Global Public Health.

“I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,” Goodman says. “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”

Real human data are never perfectly predictive when it comes to something like an epidemic, Goodman says, since there are countless ways that a person could come into contact with the virus.

For context, Goodman says a “really good” r-squared, in terms of public health data, would be a 0.7. “Anything like 0.99,” she said, “would make me think that someone is simulating data. It would mean you already know what is going to happen.” ...

https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-economic-data-have-always-raised-questions-its-coronavirus-numbers-do-too-51581622840

Yet, for Ebola cumulative case data for 2014, r-squared is 0.992.

and SARS in 2003

Quote

Microsoft Excel calculates an R² of 0·98 for an exponential curve, indicating an excellent fit (figure, A).

 

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(03)13335-1

 

So the r-squared/curve-fitting, while a hmmm, won't give us a smoking gun.

 

[Bombastinator]

What I’m not getting is how is the death rate for this thing supposed to be under 5% while the deaths vs cases looks more like 50%

[Canoe]

11 hours ago, Canoe said:

The Feb 19th graphs have to wait. There's a number and translation anomaly. I have to wait and see if files are updated overnight.

After going to the CNHC site and doing a select and copy, I typed in google, and google immediately went to "Translate, Chinese" lol

Here's the problem with the latest CNHC report data, possibly due to their, yet again, new case definition.

 

The Feb 19th total for new cases for all of China is given as

reported 394 new cases

 

The format in a lower section for Hubei & Wuhan has been,

湖北新增确诊病例1693例（武汉1660例）

The Hubei number (the Wuhan number). （武汉___例）

 

From CHNC site for Feb 19th

http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/202002/4dcfcb9b74ea4a408fc1d56d4db61f93.shtml

Quote

　　湖北新增确诊病例349例（其中：武汉新增615例，仙桃等4市新增13例，荆门、咸宁等10市州对确诊病例中来源于原“临床诊断病例”者进行核酸检测，通过综合分析，将核酸检测结果为阴性的病例从确诊病例中核减，共订正核减279例）

Google translates to

Quote

There were 349 new confirmed cases in Hubei (including 615 new cases in Wuhan, 13 new cases in 4 cities including Xiantao, and 10 cities and prefectures such as Jingmen, Xianning, etc.). Comprehensive analysis, subtracted negative cases from the confirmed cases, and revised a total of 279 cases.

Total in Hubei of 349, and the subset of that in Wuhan is 615...

It's been "XXX new cases in Hubei (YYY in Wuhan)", with XXX > YYY, and their net the balance of cases in Hubei that aren't in Wuhan. Like the 1693 (1660) at the top.

Maybe that means the 'old' new cases (before further testing and adjustment) would have been 349+279, for 628 new cases in Hubei (615 in Wuhan)?

 

But https://www.labome.com/method/Wuhan-2019-Novel-Coronavirus-2019-nCoV.html

gives that section as

 

Quote

湖北新增确诊病例349例（其中：武汉新增615例，仙桃等4市新增13例，荆门、咸宁等10市州对确诊病例中来源于原“临床诊断病例”者进行核酸检测，通过综合分析，将核酸检测结果为阴性的病例从确诊病例中核减，共订正核减279例

 

Hubei reported 349 new cases (1,660 in Wuhan), 1,266 patients released from medical case (615 in Wuhan and 4 prefecture level cities including Xiantao have 13 cases; 10 prefecture level cities including Jingmen and Xianning have 279 fewer cases due to PCR negative results for some of the "clinically diagnosed cases" and re-evaluations),

 

It's not six of one, half-dozen of the other...

[Canoe]

4 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

What I’m not getting is how is the death rate for this thing supposed to be under 5% while the deaths vs cases looks more like 50%

Are you looking at the Ebola 2014 graph?

 

[Bombastinator]

1 minute ago, Canoe said:

Are you looking at the Ebola 2014 graph?

 

I was. Nvm.  Thanks.

[Canoe]

1 minute ago, Bombastinator said:

I was. Nvm.  Thanks.

Well, with the numbers we're getting, you never know...

[Canoe]

The "Top" list you don't want to be on.

Excludes the true Tops, Mainland China and the Diamond Princess.

Total External is the total of reported Confrimed Cases outside of Mainland China and the Diamond Princess.

 

As the blip in the data is Japan on Feb 6th, I'm guessing that was Japan starting to count the Diamond Princess, then changed their minds.

 

For midday EST, 2020-02-20

 

 

 

 

On 2/19/2020 at 7:54 PM, Bombastinator said:

? What guy?

Bad joke: whoseever's plasma they were looking at.

[Bombastinator]

1 hour ago, Canoe said:

The "Top" list you don't want to be on.

Excludes the true Tops, Mainland China and the Diamond Princess.

Total External is the total of reported Confrimed Cases outside of Mainland China and the Diamond Princess.

 

As the blip in the data is Japan on Feb 6th, I'm guessing that was Japan starting to count the Diamond Princess, then changed their minds.

 

For midday EST, 2020-02-20

 

 

 

Wow.  What the heck happened on the first of February in South Korea?  It looks like it’s growing in a lot of places but that’s a big jump.

[PhantomJaguarr]

1 hour ago, Bombastinator said:

Wow.  What the heck happened on the first of February in South Korea?  It looks like it’s growing in a lot of places but that’s a big jump.

You could look more into the suspected cause here. Large groups of people congregating together when one of them was infected.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/20/south-korean-city-daegu-lockdown-coronavirus-outbreak-cases-soar-at-church-cult-cluster

[Canoe]

1 hour ago, PhantomJaguar77 said:

You could look more into the suspected cause here. Large groups of people congregating together when one of them was infected.

 

Uncertain if it's just an undetected cluster that grew before detected, or a super-spreading event.

7 hours ago, Canoe said:

Quote

• A religious group in South Korea has been identified as a coronavirus hotbed, officials say, amid a sharp rise in confirmed cases in the country.
• It is believed that the infections among members of the Temple of the Tabernacle of the Testimony sect in the city of Daegu are linked to one woman.
  • South Korean health officials believe that the infections are linked to a 61-year-old woman who tested positive for the virus earlier this week.
  • The Korean Centre for Disease Control says the woman - who has not been identified - had contact with 166 people, who were asked to self-quarantine.
• The sect accounts for 30 of 53 new cases, with officials warning of an unprecedented crisis in the country.
• South Korea also confirmed its first death from the virus

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51572137

So many are low/no symptom, it seems to take a number of cases before cases start to get detected. Hence the worry about how far and wide it's been seeded before that, as they wonder about the two month plus time from D0 in Wuhan before it got adequate notice.

 

 

[FakeCIA]

I know that there is one student infected in my area at Arizona State University, but total numbers in the U.S. are heavily conflicted by lack of accurate reporting and misinformation. Fox News is reporting this like it is the end of the world and CNN is just focused on the cruise ship alone. I'm relying on the VOA and eye-witness reports. As far as I know, there are at least 70 confirmed cases here, but there is no need to panic. You are only at risk if you have lung disease, are a smoker, or have an already weakened immune system. Though, I'll start getting my offshore bunker ready.

[Canoe]

19 minutes ago, FakeCIA said:

... total numbers in the U.S. are heavily conflicted by lack of accurate reporting and misinformation. ... You are only at risk if you have lung disease, are a smoker, or have an already weakened immune system. Though, I'll start getting my offshore bunker ready.

I don't know why, but diabetes figures in as a significant risk of a severe or fatal outcome.

I see reports that the U.S. is so far only testing people with a link to China/Hubei/Wuhan, which, depends on the source. Allegedly the same for Canada. Once the SARS-CoV-2 secondary detection test for flu cases are up and running at the five labs chosen for that, the CDC will have their U.S. early warning going. Maybe even got online today...

 

Here's what the top three look like.

My take on it is that Singapore is likely a more realistic infection rate, plus a much earlier detection and response. What we see with the other two, is likely Delayed Detection. Japan had at least one spreading event (that boat party - no, not the cruise...) and South Korea the same with that religious group. I'd like to say that Japan & South Korea being slightly higher is a consequence of the delayed detection, but the counts are really so close it isn't valid to claim that. But that's all just a guess... If there's a continuing rise or jump in either of those two, then we look at the numbers again. And there's no telling when another country hits a 'critical' mass in a cluster (or two, or more), and off it goes.

 

Edited February 21, 2020 by Canoe
no, not the cruise

[Bombastinator]

32 minutes ago, Canoe said:

I don't know why, but diabetes figures in as a significant risk of a severe or fatal outcome.

I see reports that the U.S. is so far only testing people with a link to China/Hubei/Wuhan, which, depends on the source. Allegedly the same for Canada. Once the SARS-CoV-2 secondary detection test for flu cases are up and running at the five labs chosen for that, the CDC will have their U.S. early warning going. Maybe even got online today...

 

Here's what the top three look like.

My take on it is that Singapore is likely a more realistic infection rate, plus a much earlier detection and response. What we see with the other two, is likely Delayed Detection. Japan had at least one spreading event (that boat party - no, not the cruise...) and South Korea the same with that religious group. I'd like to say that Japan & South Korea being slightly higher is a consequence of the delayed detection, but the counts are really so close it isn't valid to claim that. But that's all just a guess... If there's a continuing rise or jump in either of those two, then we look at the numbers again. And there's no telling when another country hits a 'critical' mass in a cluster (or two, or more), and off it goes.

 

Diabetes might or might not mean anything specifically because diabetes is also something that old people get.  It also goes along with being immune compromised.  Correlation is not causality.  This one may not be easy to figure out though because a “healthy diabetic” isn’t really a thing.   Could be an artifact of age and immunocompromised status.  Could also be something interesting.

[Canoe]

33 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

Diabetes might or might not mean anything specifically because diabetes is also something that old people get.  ...  Could be an artifact of age and immunocompromised status.  Could also be something interesting.

Dr. Peng in Wuhan, in that previously linked The Straits Times article of Feb 6, 2020. One of the earliest responding, since Jan 6. It's now dated Jan 8 and behind a paywall.

Quote

I drew on data from 138 cases that South Central Hospital had from Jan 7 to Jan 28 and attempted to summarise some patterns of the novel coronavirus.

...

When the body's other organs start to fail, that's when it becomes severe, while those with strong immune systems see their symptoms decrease in severity at this stage and gradually recover. So the second week is what determines whether the illness becomes critical.

The third week determines whether critical illness leads to death. Some in critical condition who receive treatment can raise their level of lymphocytes, a type of white blood cell, and see an improvement in their immune systems, and have been brought back, so to speak. But those whose lymphocyte numbers continue to decline, those whose immune systems are destroyed in the end, experience multiple organ failure and die.

 

 

[Canoe]

2 hours ago, Canoe said:

... If there's a continuing rise or jump in either of those two, then we look at the numbers again. ...

I can't use the two words I would have.

CSSE dashboard shows South Korea has jumped to 154 156.

Japan at 94.

 

Global deaths just ticked over to 2,247

The Diamond Princess has nudged up to 634.

[greenmax]

Japan is the epicenter now along with China.

They were probably too slow in action.

[Canoe]

Feb 20 charts

 

[greenmax]

It looks pretty bad, can just hope governments are compitent enough to get a handle on it and elimate it.

1 minute ago, Canoe said:

Feb 20 charts

 

[Canoe]

 

 

[greenmax]

Its good to see the death toll quite low. But the infected rates are sky high.

[Canoe]

19 minutes ago, greenmax said:

It looks pretty bad, can just hope governments are compitent enough to get a handle on it and elimate it.

It is. But there are a lot of supid lines on there to try and make that one chart comprehensive. And a number of them are cumulative totals. So one might not notice that the Current cases in China has come down to just under 55,000. And the green line for Recovered  continues up a lot faster than the red line for Deaths, and so their ratio continues to improve. The more cases that are resolved, and with an improving ratio, then there's more confidence on the outcomes to expect. But Covid-19 runs a long course, so there's a lot we can't rely upon yet.

 

Unfortunately, the rest of the world total is climbing. The Diamond Princess gave it a huge boost. But the ones to watch are the close regions, to see if it can be contained and not go nuts like Wuhan. But what has been learnt from all the studies from the Wuhan and China wide data has added tons that is being useful. Hopefully, there's even more. The sooner the better.