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corona virus

SansVarnic

Due to the nature of this topic, please keep cool heads and conversation On Topic.

Intentional Derailing, Political Rhetoric, or Arguing will result in removal of comments/replies and warnings issued.

 

The "No politics" rule will be enforced even harder. This will be last warning you get. If someone posts any political rhetoric (about parties, ideology, policy etc.), you will receive PM from moderator telling to step off the thread. As forum does not have functionality to do it better ways. If you continue to post ANYTHING after receiving PM, you will get warnings for not following staff instructions.

Posting news about what governments in your parts of world do in order to act on this crisis is fine, but will be looked case-by-case. (Updated 03/19/2020)

 

Remember the core values of this forum;

Quote
  • Ensure a friendly atmosphere to our visitors and forum members.
  • Encourage the freedom of expression and exchange of information in a mature and responsible manner.
  • "Don't be a dick" - Wil Wheaton.
  • "Be excellent to each other" - Bill and Ted.
  • Remember your audience; both present and future.

 

Message added by SansVarnic

ATTENTION: there is a covid 19 F@H event happening, you can find it HERE.

 

this is a good opportunity to help with research!

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4 hours ago, Donut417 said:

Not a good assumption to have. That’s how it’s going to spread even more. Before you know it people are going to be infected left and right. 

Big problems with that derivation..  Just because I said it is an assumption doesn’t mean it’s wrong.  It does not translate into “it’s going to” or “are going to be”. It just means it could do with some looking at.


Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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19 minutes ago, Deli said:

Thursday there are 4823 new confirmed cases. Although less than the spike from yesterday. It is still higher than previous average.

But without the shift of those 13,332, which was also tallied under New Cases, it was 1,877 the day before, which is less than the trend. (4823 + 1,877 ) / 2 = 2233, which is a reasonable continuation of the trend.

3914

3575

3290

3474

2713

2752

2460

2352

 

1,877

4,832

 

And once today's translation is available, we'll see if the 4,832 contains any more transferred Suspected, for which New Cases can be adjusted.

More telling, will be the next two days, which may also have a special note on more transfers.

Have to wait for the numbers.

 

And instead of totals, Hubei numbers

 

3156

2987

2447

2841

2147

2531

2097

1638

14,840 - 13,332 = 1,508

 

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15 hours ago, Deli said:

Thursday there are 4823 new confirmed cases. Although less than the spike from yesterday. It is still higher than previous average.

  • The Feb 13, 2020 CNHC Daily Update report includes 5,090 New Cases, with Hubei reporting 4,823 new cases (3,910 in Wuhan).
  • Suspected cases dropped from 13,435 on the 12th to 10,109 on the 13th.
    • ~Edit: this includes 2,450 New Suspected. The drop in Suspected before adding those new is 5,776.
  • It appears likely that those new cases contain additional Suspected transferred over to Confirmed.
  • Note the flatness of the top line between the 11, 12 & 13th.

Here's the graph of that. (usualy daily graphs to follow when I get to them)

 

269006713_2019-nCoVgraphTotalConfirmedSuspectedCases2020-02-13.thumb.png.f70e52d832d20102936ab014ed80ef1f.png

 

Edited by Canoe
added note regarding New Suspected
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Feb 13, 2020 graphs

 

Note: The Diamond Princess cruise ship is in the data with 218 Confirmed. They don't list under any country, but are included in the World set.

 

861838370_2019-nCoVgraphCases2020-02-13.thumb.png.3eeb1a8d7711ea548635b923704ac743.png

 

 

1145198728_2019-nCoVgraphDeathsRecovered2020-02-13.thumb.png.5fe5f35d8a72263bbdfa159274fa8cea.png

 

***

 

The Severe looks like it has jumped up. But it was down the day before. Looking at a simple trend line or a polynominal, there is no material change in rate of Severe. And that is easily explained by the large number of cases and the long course of the disease (one to five weeks). Temping to note the transfer of 13,332+ cases with "pneumonia CT features" to Confirmed, and their increased scrunity possibly resulting in some going to that higher Severe count; but while logical, the Severe number is so close to the trend, that 'observation' is a really long stretch to read that from the numbers.

 

1999942802_Severetrend.png.291da09b532dc756a8537a7caeaefd8c.png

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was there another cruise ship that no country allowed it to dock in? o_o i kinda fear for their lives (and the whole mind-state of that whole situation... imagine space exploration)

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14 minutes ago, VegetableStu said:

was there another cruise ship that no country allowed it to dock in? o_o i kinda fear for their lives (and the whole mind-state of that whole situation... imagine space exploration)

Yes. News report they had been accepted to dock in Cambodia.

 

p.s.

I haven't checked if they docked.

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17 minutes ago, Canoe said:

Scott Gotleib has an interesting career.  I followed it due to e-cigarette stuff.  He’s got an MD but his primary interest is buying and selling companies.   Trump appointee.  Left when he got a higher paying job as board member on some medical company.


Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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2 hours ago, Bombastinator said:

Scott Gotleib has an interesting career.  I followed it due to e-cigarette stuff.  He’s got an MD but his primary interest is buying and selling companies.   Trump appointee.  Left when he got a higher paying job as board member on some medical company.

Quote

Gottlieb -- who has no formal background in public health but participated in biodefense and pandemic preparedness programs at the FDA prior to becoming commissioner -- said that what he's seen so far indicates that the disease may become a pandemic.

 

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Like I said paranoia is a terrible thing. After work I’m going to Wei Wei for some Chinese food take out.

 

 


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1 hour ago, Canoe said:

 

I don’t know if those two quotes are mutually exclusive.  I don’t know if a “background in public health” is an MD.  They’re not quite the same thing after all.  He was the one setting up ecig regulation a few years ago and was one of Trump’s early appointments.  As such the ecig community dig into his background with a certain amount of fervor.  He was actually pretty well qualified for his job for a trump appointee.  They often have little or no experience in their fields.  


Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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Case in Hawaii.

It's reported Pt. developed a fever six days after arrival on the island.

~six is within the incubation range, so unknown if this case was an import or a local transmission.

 

***

******************************

***

 

CDC to test flu samples for coronavirus as an early warning measure

Quote

... public health labs that usually test for influenza to also start testing for coronavirus in the United States this week. The labs are in Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco and Seattle.

The public health labs are part of the CDC’s existing flu surveillance network, which monitors influenza illnesses and hospitalizations. Specimens that test negative for flu will be tested for coronavirus, said Nancy Messonnier, who is leading the coronavirus response at the CDC. Officials plan to expand the testing to more labs in the coming weeks to provide an early warning of where the virus may be spreading. ...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-live-updates/2020/02/14/6806aa08-4eb8-11ea-b721-9f4cdc90bc1c_story.html

Quote

This season, at least 26 million people have been sickened by the flu in the United States, including 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths.

 

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51 minutes ago, Canoe said:

Case in Hawaii.

It's reported Pt. developed a fever six days after arrival on the island.

~six is within the incubation range, so unknown if this case was an import or a local transmission.

 

***

******************************

***

 

CDC to test flu samples for coronavirus as an early warning measure

 

Fdfffffff... well every boat and plane and person on a plane leaving Hawaii in the last two weeks is going to need to be tracked now..


Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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On 2/15/2020 at 1:18 AM, Bombastinator said:

Fdfffffff... well every boat and plane and person on a plane leaving Hawaii in the last two weeks is going to need to be tracked now..

The planes coming and going are screened.

To different standards in different jurisdictions.

Reports that some places in Africa are only screening incoming from China...

 

China is tracking down "close contacts".

From CNHC Daily Update of Feb 13, 2020.

Quote

493,067 close contacts have been followed-up so far and 177,984 of them remain under medical observation.

 

***

 

On 2/15/2020 at 1:22 AM, Andreas Lilja said:

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876080

 

Like when they removed their teeth during World War Z? 

Quote

A North Korean trade official has reportedly been executed by firing squad for going to a public bath, in violation of his coronavirus quarantine after having returned from China.

wow

I haven't heard more about the woman in Russia who escaped (escape map, defeated locks, etc.) quarantine in hospital and went home and was barricaded in her apartment with police outside.

 

***

 

After the thread was "moderated", I can't find the post that described a way to make your own filter.

 

Here's a doctor in Wuhan who's made his own DIY Positive Pressure Air Hood.

Quote

There’s no build information, but from the pictures we can guess at what [Dr. Cui] came up with. The boxy bit is an AirPro Car, a HEPA filter meant to clean the cabin air in a motor vehicle. He glued on a USB battery pack to power it, used a scrap of plastic and some silicone adhesive to adapt a heat-moisture exchange filter from a mechanical ventilator to the AirPro’s outlet, and stuck the tube into a plastic bag sealed around his neck. The filter provides dry, positive pressure air to keep the bag from fogging up, and to keep [Dr. Cui] from asphyxiating. Plus he’s protected from droplet contact, which is a big plus over simple paper masks.

https://hackaday.com/2020/02/12/hacked-protective-gear-keeps-doctor-safe-in-the-hot-zone/

https://twitter.com/RealSexyCyborg/status/1226844462552244226

 

We should be able to make something and just tell people we thought it was cosplay day at work.

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27 minutes ago, Andreas Lilja said:

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876080

 

Like when they removed their teeth during World War Z? 

Huh?  It’s North Korea.  It was probably not so much “you went to a public bath” so much as “you did something dear leader told you not to”.  North Korea doesn’t operate under the same rules as the rest of the world.


Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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Okay... Seems the name has changed again...

Just read that it is now "SARS-CoV-2" as in "Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2"

It seems that's the name given by the "experts"... Isn't the WHO Comittee composed of "experts"?

 

It would be nice if they would agree once and for all... ?

 

____________________________________________________________

 

I've just read this: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197

--> "Chinese doctors say Wuhan coronavirus reinfection even deadlier"

Anyone has more news/info regarding this???

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15 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Okay... Seems the name has changed again...

Just read that it is now "SARS-CoV-2" as in "Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2"

 

It would be nice if they would agree once and for all... ?

It’s new. Everyone and their mom is trying to make up a name.


Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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Thought it would be interesting to finally "know the enemy"! ?

 

Here the picture of the bugger!!
 

Spoiler

NIAID Makes New Images of SARS-CoV-2 Available for COVID-19 Coverage

 

The bugger is in yellow! ?

Source: NIAID

 

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We had several times the discussion about "numbers"... Between "real", "official", "extrapolated", yada yada.

Here's an article to take with a grain of salt:

--> "Rise in sulfur dioxide could be sign of mass cremations in Wuhan"

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874013

 

I don't want to believe that the 2 3rd option is the right one, but thinking of past things, I think it may me unfortunately not "untrue"...

Edited by Cora_Lie
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On 2/15/2020 at 2:13 AM, Cora_Lie said:

Okay... Seems the name has changed again...

Just read that it is now "SARS-CoV-2" as in "Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2"

It seems that's the name given by the "experts"... Isn't the WHO Comittee composed of "experts"?

It would be nice if they would agree once and for all... ?

They do.

The virus is named SARS-CoV-2.

The disease it causes is named Covid-19.

 

On 2/15/2020 at 2:38 AM, Cora_Lie said:

We had several times the discussion about "numbers"... Between "real", "official", "extrapolated", yada yada.

Here's an article to take with a grain of salt:

--> "Rise in sulfur dioxide could be sign of mass cremations in Wuhan"

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874013

 

I don't want to believe that the 2 3rd option is the right one, but thinking of past things, I think it may me unfortunately not "untrue"...

There's been a number of "alerts" over the past week regarding pockets of various gasses as detected from satellites, and available on free sites. You'd need to compare to pre-Covid-19 values, and account for many other factors. I don't see how levels could be correlated with a specific activity on the ground. They're regarded more of a general indication of production over an urban area, and of dispersion (or not) by weather systems (the gases as detected are not necessarily over their source when the measurements are done...). Some low level fires that get missed by flame/heat detection can show up by the detection of their gasses (or smoke particles).

 

***

 

News report:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/14/coronavirus-latest-updates-wuhan-hubei-china-deaths-cruise-ship-sydney-cases-covid19-live-news

Quote

 

First confirmed case of coronavirus in Africa

Africa has its first confirmed case of coronavirus after a person in Egypt tested positive for the disease, it has emerged.

The person, who is not Egyptian, is in hospital isolation, the country’s health ministry said.

The ministry said it had immediately informed the World Health Organization and taken all necessary preventative measures.

No other details are known yet about the individual who caught the disease.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Canoe said:

There's been a number of "alerts" over the past week regarding pockets of various gasses as detected from satellites, and available on free sites. You'd need to compare to pre-Covid-19 values, and account for many other factors. I don't see how levels could be correlated with a specific activity on the ground. They're regarded more of a general indication of production over an urban area, and of dispersion (or not) by weather systems (the gases as detected are not necessarily over their source when the measurements are done...). Some low level fires that get missed by flame/heat detection can show up by the detection of their gasses (or smoke particles).

Here I totally disagree with you and the whys and hows are perfectly explained in the article.

And I won't repeat what is already written down in the article...

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On 2/15/2020 at 3:57 AM, Cora_Lie said:

Here I totally disagree with you and the whys and hows are perfectly explained in the article.

And I won't repeat what is already written down in the article...

And I've spent too much time using those sources for tracking the fires along the western U.S. coast states, compared to the on-the-ground fire reports & photos, to have confidence in the precision of the detections.

Their observations are interesting, but can not be conclusive. Corroboration from a reliable source, or sources, required.

 

On 2/15/2020 at 5:25 AM, Andreas Lilja said:

Chinese report Pt.s that are Asymptomatic yet are infected.

And it's unknown if once a Covid-19 Pt. recovers, if they'll shed the virus for a period of time.

 

As in the article, "We don’t know that means, whether that’s live or dead virus".

Quote

 

... recovered but remain in isolation at their home because tests still show them carrying the bug, authorities say.

Nose and throat swabs taken since the man was released from Sunnybrook hospital two weeks ago continue to show traces of coronavirus in both him and his wife, who was never hospitalized. ... “There is some genetic material or viral material left in the individual specimens,” Dr. Vanessa Allen of Public Health Ontario said Thursday.

“We don’t know that means, whether that’s live or dead virus,” Allen said.

 

 

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