corona virus

[Deli]

16 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

Hate circle graphs.  They obscure a lot of territory and you never know if they’re using area radius or diameter

Some models predict the peak is near. This spike worries me.

[Soppro]

So I have a question that any resident medical professionals may be able to answer: what exactly is the difference between this new coronavirus and the flu? Their symptoms are the same/similar, they have similar characteristics (high transmissibility), so what exactly is different? Perhaps this can be answered in the next few weeks/months as more and more analyses of COVID-19 are completed.

 

It also makes me wonder why people are so hysterical about this new virus when it contains so many similarities to the flu ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Maybe it's because it's new, but then again, we have new strains of the flu on a yearly basis. If you are in a country with a good healthcare system, you should be fine. China on the other hand, doesn't have a particularly robust healthcare system, let's just say you need some "in's" to get good and fast treatment.

[Canoe]

As people have seen, updated number for Feb 12 are out. But I can't complete the graphs until the translation of the CNHC Daily Update is available. It's rather delayed for some reason.

 

We now get to see where all those decreases in Suspect are going. They've been preparing for: apparently China has decided to transfer the "Suspect" Covid-19 diagnosed Mild not-test-confirmed, into the Confirmed count.

• Up to now, we could see those with mild symptoms (Suspect), Moderate (Confirmed - Severe) and Severe.
• Moving forward, we'll see Mild and Moderate lumped together, and I presume Severe.

Once the Feb 12 translation is available, I'll be able to see if those numbers are provided in the daily new counts.

 

Part of their adjustment of numbers, means some deaths that weren't attributed to Covid-19, now are. From what I read, that's the jump in Deaths.

 

This graph should be good.

 

 

***

 

Prelim graphs. Will be updated once I can get the Feb 12 CNHC Daily Update translation.

 

And you can see how the combining of the mild cases of Suspect into Confirmed obscures the Mild and stronger Cases. We'll see if the Daily Update contains specific new daily counts of all categories that can be used.

 

 

***

On 2/13/2020 at 7:29 AM, Soppro said:

... what exactly is the difference between this new coronavirus and the flu? Their symptoms are the same/similar, they have similar characteristics (high transmissibility), so what exactly is different? ...

• Covid-19 is a corona virus. Flu is influenza. They are different types of viruses. Ebola is another type.
• Unlike flu, there is no vaccine yet, and treatments are extremely new and experimental. 
• Covid-19 genome has already been mapped, and remapped to trace transmissions (I'll attach an example).
• In short, Covid-19 is concerning as it is highly contagious, there have been deaths, basic Transmission is known but not fully nailed down (questions remain), most of China appears to be seeded, as are several countries close to China, with some seeding seen around the globe (but the extent is unknown), with seeding potential not yet fully known.
• So much is not yet fully known.
• The disease has a very long course, first incubation, then as best known so far, one to five weeks until Recovered or Death. As of Feb 11 numbers, 87% of Confirmed cases were unresolved. One doctor in Wuhan has said that if Severe cases can stay alive past three weeks (four weeks?), they usually make it.
• Everything is subject to updating on new better information.
• A lot of info on the above and more, is in this thread. Start from the end, and work backwards, so you're getting newer information, until you've had enough. lol

 

 

 

On 2/12/2020 at 9:10 PM, Bombastinator said:

That really really needs to be found out. ...  If however it is later in-place quarantine systems could be near useless.  Controlling transmission is every bit as important ...

Exactly!

Which is why I want to know about the possibility of overlapping strains. A patient could get cleared as one strain has Recovered, but the other they caught is in incubation and goes undetected and they're released.

 

***

 

On 2/11/2020 at 9:43 PM, nyichiban said:

Article from several days ago about treatment in Thailand with positive results. https://www.ecowatch.com/coronavirus-treatment-thailand-doctors-2645011844.html?rebelltitem=3#rebelltitem3  ...

On 2/11/2020 at 10:58 PM, Canoe said:

... > The drug treatment includes a mixture of anti-HIV drugs lopinavir and ritonavir, in combination with flu drug oseltamivir in large doses. ...

 

I saw a number of reports much earlier today, unconfirmed, that China wants to produce ritonavir with/without the manufacturer's permission, to use in the treatment of Covid-19.

Edited February 13, 2020 by Canoe
Graph updated with new Y axis spacing/label for readability

[Guest]

Hum... From what I read just now the slow down was just that... It starts again...

Quote

4:12 pm: China confirms 15,152 new cases, 254 additional deaths

In a Thursday press conference, China said it confirmed 15,152 new cases and 254 additional deaths. Those figures include the ones reported earlier by Hubei province under its new diagnosis methodology. (See 7:55 a.m. and 10:40 a.m. updates).

That brings the country's total death toll to 1,367 as the number of people infected hit 59,804, according to the government.

A spokeswoman for the Shanghai Health Commission said at a press conference that the methodology for diagnosing coronavirus has not been changed in any Chinese provinces or municipalities except for Hubei.

Health workers in Hubei province began using a new method to diagnose the virus this week.

Previously, infections were only allowed to be confirmed with nucleic acid tests, which can take days to process, but Hubei province is now using CT scans which can diagnose the virus more quickly. — Wang, Cheng, Taylor

 

10:40 am: Hubei changes method of reporting cases

Health authorities in Hubei province said Thursday that "clinically diagnosed" cases accounted for much of the increase in the "confirmed case" count, resulting in a surge in new confirmed cases for the prior day. (see 7:55 am update)

The change was made so that more patients could receive the same treatment as a confirmed case would, according to a CNBC translation of the official announcement's Chinese text.

The online release cited a national-level virus response plan issued last week, which expanded the definition of clinically diagnosed cases in Hubei province to include suspected cases for whom CT scans showed indications of the disease. It was not immediately clear why Hubei was implementing the measures this week. — Cheng

 

7:55 am: Hubei province reports 14,840 new cases

China's Hubei province reported an additional 242 deaths and 14,840 new cases as of Feb. 12 — a sharp increase from the previous day. The province said it is starting to include "clinically diagnosed" cases in its figures and that 13,332 of the new cases fall under that classification.

The government said that a total of 1,310 people have died in the province and that 48,206 people have been infected in the region.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/13/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-hubei.html

 

Yes I know that it's because they started to include the "clinically diagnosed" in the numbers so that

Quote

... more patients could receive the same treatment as a confirmed case would ...

 

I find "interesting" to ask this question now

Quote

It was not immediately clear why Hubei was implementing the measures this week.

and not immediately from the beginning...

But hey...

[Professional Panty Thief]

Do infected people pay hospital bill? Because I can't pay hospital bill without Obamacare. Last time I went to the my local hospital, and asked them how much do they charge for lay in the bed for a whole day, and they said $1500+.

[Guest]

The ones officially diagnosed as "infected" do not. The Health system tekes every thing in charge.

If you are not "officially diagnosed" then you have to pay the bill.

 

On one side they said that did not have enough kits to test everyone (but no test, no official diagnosis). On the other side, even people with the pulmonary radios positive where not tested and sent back home.

 

[TechyBen]

13 hours ago, Deli said:

 

A big spike today.

Memes, and late to the story but:

Kinda scary how real life imitates art... no, how accurate art is at cataloging real life.

[Canoe]

 

From the translation of the Feb 12 CNHC Daily Update

Quote

In order to ensure early diagnosis / care, and isolation and medical case for all Hubei cases, according to Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Diagnosis and Therapy Guidelines (interim version 5, revision), the diagnosis criteria are different in Hubei Province from those in the rest of country, Hubei Province adds a new category of cases "clinically diagnosed case", which includes any suspected cases with the characteristic pneumonia CT features. This diagnosis enables patients to receive medical care accorded to confirmed cases early on and can improve the success rate of recovery. Currently, 13,332 clinically diagnosed cases Hubei Province reported are included in the counting of new cases. Hubie Province is strengthening care and working hard to reduce the number of severe cases and mortality rate.

I still have to work through the provided numbers to see what is where.

 

There's a new Hubei (Wuhan) section.

Quote

Hubei reported 14,840 new cases (13,436 in Wuhan), 802 patients released from medical case (538 in Wuhan), 242 new deaths (216 in Wuhan), currently has 43,455 cases (30,043 in Wuhan), including 7,084 severe cases (5,426 in Wuhan). Hubei has released 3,441 patients (1,915 in Wuhan), recorded 1,310 deaths (1,036 in Wuhan), had a total of 48,206 cases (32,994 in Wuhan). Hubei reported 1,377 new suspected cases (620 in Wuhan) and currently has a total of 9,028 suspected cases (4,904 in Wuhan).

 

[oskar23]

Official numbers are way low from beginning. Be safe everyone whe  its spreads..

[cluelessgenius]

14 hours ago, Deli said:

 

 

A big spike today.

what site is that?

[Canoe]

3 minutes ago, cluelessgenius said:

what site is that?

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[Canoe]

Of course I thought it would be easier than it was...

I haven't finished, but here's what the graph of cases looks like with "clinically diagnosed case" shifting/shifted over to Confirmed. Not finished yet, but I've got three meetings before I can get back to this. The numbers support that as reported, Suspect has also been reconciled (to an unknown degree) with prior Suspect that had become Confirmed, Severe, Death, Recovered.

 

 

Edited February 13, 2020 by Canoe
deleted the interim graph for Feb 12

[Professional Panty Thief]

There is no cure for this virus yet than how these infected patients discharged out of the hospital?

[Bombastinator]

Just now, Professional Panty Thief said:

There is no cure for this virus yet than how these infected patients discharged out of the hospital?

There’s no cure for the flu either.  There is “getting better” though. There seems to be an assumption that anyone who has recovered is no longer contagious.

[Donut417]

7 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

There seems to be an assumption that anyone who has recovered is no longer contagious.

Not a good assumption to have. That’s how it’s going to spread even more. Before you know it people are going to be infected left and right. 

[dalekphalm]

17 minutes ago, Professional Panty Thief said:

There is no cure for this virus yet than how these infected patients discharged out of the hospital?

Their bodies own immune system gets over the infection (or it doesn't, and they die). Currently the "cure" is treat the symptoms and hope the patient doesn't die. Though there are lots of promising potential things coming up.

[Canoe]

7 hours ago, Canoe said:

Of course I thought it would be easier than it was...

I haven't finished, but here's what the graph of cases looks like with "clinically diagnosed case" shifting/shifted over to Confirmed. ... The numbers support that as reported, Suspect has also been reconciled (to an unknown degree) with prior Suspect that had become Confirmed, Severe, Death, Recovered.

Nice to see 13,332 "any suspected cases with the characteristic pneumonia CT features" get moved over to Confirmed, so they're eligible for any treatment that is developed - and at government expense - to prevent their condition worsening. I haven't seen if they have such a treatment yet, or soon expect to. But they must have something in mind, else why would they have sifted through so many cases, and taking some days (we saw Suspected dropping from Feb 8th) to do it. 

 

New Cases for Feb 12. With those 13,332 lumped in with the world's 15,209 new cases for this day, the usual new cases is 15,209 - 13,332, for 1,877, which is down from the prior day's 2,352. But prior days may have included a number of Suspected that got upgraded to Confirmed, but only now the Suspected count has been reconciled with such changes.

 

What I didn't get in the translation, was the number for "cases under isolation and under medical care", so that's not on the graph for this date. We'll see what's in the next day's CNHC Daily Update translation.

 

The Feb 12, 2020 graph.

 

[Bombastinator]

4 minutes ago, Canoe said:

Nice to see 13,332 "any suspected cases with the characteristic pneumonia CT features" get moved over to Confirmed, so they're eligible for any treatment that is developed - and at government expense - to prevent their condition worsening. I haven't seen if they have such a treatment yet, or soon expect to. But they must have something in mind, else why would they have sifted through so many cases, and taking some days (we saw Suspected dropping from Feb 8th) to do it. 

 

What I didn't get in the translation, was the number for "cases under isolation and under medical care", so that's not on the graph for this date. We'll see what's in the next day's CNHC Daily Update translation.

 

The Feb 12, 2020 graph.

 

Just read a thing about an antiviral they were testing in monkeys in the US that got sent to China because of “compassionate aid” or some such.  Thing’s name began with”r” I think.  What’s wacky is it’s not a vaccine, it’s a general antiviral.

[Andreas Lilja]

10 hours ago, Professional Panty Thief said:

Do infected people pay hospital bill? Because I can't pay hospital bill without Obamacare. Last time I went to the my local hospital, and asked them how much do they charge for lay in the bed for a whole day, and they said $1500+.

Yeah but that's American exceptionalism. 

[Deli]

10 hours ago, Professional Panty Thief said:

Do infected people pay hospital bill? Because I can't pay hospital bill without Obamacare. Last time I went to the my local hospital, and asked them how much do they charge for lay in the bed for a whole day, and they said $1500+.

I once got very ill in Tajikistan and stayed in a hospital for 5 days. It costed me €25.

[Deli]

Thursday there are 4823 new confirmed cases. Although less than the spike from yesterday. It is still higher than previous average.

[Bombastinator]

4 hours ago, Donut417 said:

Not a good assumption to have. That’s how it’s going to spread even more. Before you know it people are going to be infected left and right. 

Big problems with that derivation..  Just because I said it is an assumption doesn’t mean it’s wrong.  It does not translate into “it’s going to” or “are going to be”. It just means it could do with some looking at.

[Canoe]

19 minutes ago, Deli said:

Thursday there are 4823 new confirmed cases. Although less than the spike from yesterday. It is still higher than previous average.

But without the shift of those 13,332, which was also tallied under New Cases, it was 1,877 the day before, which is less than the trend. (4823 + 1,877 ) / 2 = 2233, which is a reasonable continuation of the trend.

3914

3575

3290

3474

2713

2752

2460

2352

 

1,877

4,832

 

And once today's translation is available, we'll see if the 4,832 contains any more transferred Suspected, for which New Cases can be adjusted.

More telling, will be the next two days, which may also have a special note on more transfers.

Have to wait for the numbers.

 

And instead of totals, Hubei numbers

 

3156

2987

2447

2841

2147

2531

2097

1638

14,840 - 13,332 = 1,508

 

[Canoe]

15 hours ago, Deli said:

Thursday there are 4823 new confirmed cases. Although less than the spike from yesterday. It is still higher than previous average.

• The Feb 13, 2020 CNHC Daily Update report includes 5,090 New Cases, with Hubei reporting 4,823 new cases (3,910 in Wuhan).
• Suspected cases dropped from 13,435 on the 12th to 10,109 on the 13th.
  • ~Edit: this includes 2,450 New Suspected. The drop in Suspected before adding those new is 5,776.
• It appears likely that those new cases contain additional Suspected transferred over to Confirmed.
• Note the flatness of the top line between the 11, 12 & 13th.

Here's the graph of that. (usualy daily graphs to follow when I get to them)

 

 

Edited February 14, 2020 by Canoe
added note regarding New Suspected

[Canoe]

Feb 13, 2020 graphs

 

Note: The Diamond Princess cruise ship is in the data with 218 Confirmed. They don't list under any country, but are included in the World set.

 

 

 

 

***

 

The Severe looks like it has jumped up. But it was down the day before. Looking at a simple trend line or a polynominal, there is no material change in rate of Severe. And that is easily explained by the large number of cases and the long course of the disease (one to five weeks). Temping to note the transfer of 13,332+ cases with "pneumonia CT features" to Confirmed, and their increased scrunity possibly resulting in some going to that higher Severe count; but while logical, the Severe number is so close to the trend, that 'observation' is a really long stretch to read that from the numbers.