corona virus

[Mister Woof]

6 minutes ago, Canoe said:

Ah ha

That article sounds familiar, and it links to what must be the same original study my info came from.

Not ARS2, but ACE2.

 

https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985
 

I haven't got time to read the study, but the researcher who referenced it stressed that it was a potential susceptibility that would need to be explored, but NOT proof of susceptibility. If you read the study and find any reference to susceptibility (or anything you find interesting...), please post back here.

 

Check the date - Posted January 26, 2020.

They're moving fast on all of this.

It seems the numbers don't add up, though, if the official numbers are to be believed.

 

I remember some results on a case study of wuhan severe disease and it Indicated that there wasn't even a disparity between males and females, being 54% male patients with severe disease.

 

Can't remember where I read that, probably live science.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Mister Woof said:

Where did you guys find that asian males are more at risk? Only article I found was from a site eturbonews which I can't really say I am confident is a reliable news outlet.

I remember having heard about that in a video (don't remember which one, but it was on the US TV) and later I found this article on the subject:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048295/men-may-be-more-prone-coronavirus-women-chinese-study-finds

 

Quote

...

The finding was in line with earlier observations that men with underlying health problems were more prone to the virus, but the latest study was based on a bigger sample size.

...

The researchers based the study on 99 patients – 67 men and 32 women – admitted to the Wuhan hospital from January 1 to 20. It found that almost half of them were infected in clusters, though Chinese health authorities only confirmed that cases were being transmitted between humans on January 21.

“We observed a greater number of men than women in the 99 cases of 2019-nCoV infection. Mers-CoV and Sars-CoV have also been found to infect more males than females,” the study said, referring to Middle East respiratory syndrome and severe acute respiratory syndrome, which are also coronaviruses.

“The reduced susceptibility of females to viral infections could be attributed to the protection from X chromosome and sex hormones, which play an important role in innate and adaptive immunity,” it said.

Half of the patients also had other chronic diseases such as heart problems or diabetes, the researchers said.

They said the mortality rate of the 99 cases was 11 per cent. That compares to an earlier study by doctors from the same hospital and other Chinese scientists based on 41 patients, which put the mortality rate at 15 per cent.

...

And I read also about it in a french newspaper, but don't remember which one... Sorry

[Canoe]

That's from the first 99 cases released.

 

Try here. It was a lot easier to read when I first found it. For some reason the graphics are displaying nicely on my browser. The pdf is a lot easier to read, and available for download.

 

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30211-7

Note and start with the "Research in context" at the top.

 

Later, 1,099 Pt. case data was released. 905/1099 were hospitalized. Studies on that too. Showed endpoints up to four weeks.

 

 

***

 

A review/summary/takeaway here

https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/research-lancet-epidemiological-clinical-characteristics.pdf?la=en

 

On 2/12/2020 at 1:04 AM, Mister Woof said:

It seems the numbers don't add up, though, if the official numbers are to be believed.

Bwaa ha ha

Can you expand what you mean with that.

There's a lot of numbers surrounding 2019-nCoV Covid-19/WWBWTWW that don't add up...

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Canoe said:

Bwaa ha ha

Can you expand what you mean with that.

There's a lot of numbers surrounding 2019-nCoV Covid-19/WWBWTWW that don't add up...

The only thing that "adds up" is the constant 2% of death ratio...

It's surprisingly "constant" every and each day with official numbers...

 

LOL!

[Canoe]

1 minute ago, Cora_Lie said:

... It's surprisingly "constant" every and each day with official numbers...

LOL!

I see the good-news Recovered incremented several times a day.

Bad-news (new cases, deaths) seems to be delayed, particularly from the other provinces, until most of the country is in bed, before being added to and appearing in, the end of day update. In the morning, the country sees the good and bad news balanced, digested as one. But any Recovered tends to appear in the updates really really fast. Minimal bad news, if any, released from the provinces during the day, when that might bring the province, or its officials, to notice.

 

[Canoe]

8 hours ago, spartaman64 said:

... i stress that theres only 15 cases in the US out of a population of 327 million

There's been a number of additional developments, discoveries and confirmations since last week and the week before. Seems so long ago. So here's why a large number of experts have concerns about the U.S. and, well, all other countries, after mainland China appears to be rather thoroughly seeded with Covid-19/WWBWTWW and is experiencing multiple outbreaks, with multiple cities of millions of people in conditions nearing lockdown, and teams going door to door in Wuhan rounding up anyone with symptoms for mass quarantine. (do those last two words really belong together...)

• First known in Wuhan, less than 30% of early November transmissions were zoonotic. Human-to-human transmission was established.
• From the samples of 2019-nCoV, they've determined that its origin D0 is sometime in November 2019.
• Apart from some handfuls of cases that caught some attention as being SARS like, it didn't draw much attention until January.
  • Probably as the majority of cases present with very minor symptoms, the severe numbers were low.
• Even then it appeared minor. Dr. Peng in Wuhan gave his account about how in early January they dedicated part of ICU space, 16 beds, for this disease, which some thought excessive. They were full by January 10th.
• The numbers didn't really start to take off until mid January. This concerns them for two reasons:
  • The very long lead time from origin until it really takes off.
  • That carriers had at least two months of spreading it around, including overseas, before the scope of what was occurring was realized and measures started to be taken to prevent it spreading.
• Note its presence in other Chinese provinces, and how the numbers still grew significantly after considerable measures were taken to address the spread of the disease. With what is known about its transmission, infection numbers and samples, they are certain that seeding of the other Chinese provinces started back in November. Therefore the provinces also experienced a very long lead time before sufficient numbers of infected presented, and no reports of zoonotic transmission (yet).
• Known now it is believed that which symptoms you present with doesn't indicate how far along you are in the course of the disease. A large number of people go from detected through to recovered with mild or even very mild symptoms, which means they believe there is a large number of infected people going undetected. And anyone they infect may experience mild, moderate, severe or it may even be fatal for them.

Then there's the transmission contribution...

• Transmission of 2019-nCov occurs through:
  • Direct Contact Transmission
  • Indirect Contact Transmission (surfaces, objects "Frequent Touch Surfaces")
  • Droplet Transmission
  • suspected - Fecal Transmission
• Note that SARS remained viable for up to 36 hours on stainless steel. For Covid-19, this is unknown.
• Half of transmissions occurred during incubation, when there are no symptoms. There is no opportunity to detect these carriers. They can go around exposing and infected unchecked, unaware they are doing so.
• Clusters of infection where Pt.s, even in the same family, are infected with different strains. Not a single infection chain; there are multiple infection chains. 
• The latest concern is that transmission may include aerosols (very small airborne droplets, floating in air for a long time, distance), not just expelled Droplet Transmission and the Indirect Transmission from the objects or surfaces they fall on.
  • Currently, there is data suggesting both sides of aerosols/no-aerosols. It is not yet clear.
• In addition, in China they've documented Pt.s who are asymptomatic - they are confirmed, infected, have no symptoms, but can still infect others.
• Through the two to five weeks (possibly more), from infected and incubation until they are recovered, they can infect others.
• Once they're recovered? See the next point.
• It is still unknown if those who have recovered continue shedding viruses after their recovery. They may continue being contagious, with or without the Transmission means changing. Days? Weeks?

All of the above combined has experts concerned that it is increasingly likely that Covid-19 is already seeded around the globe. Present, but largely hidden, in unknown numbers well beyond the relatively small number of cases currently tallied in various countries. And if that hasn't already happened, given incubation, low/no symptoms and Asymptomatic Pt.s, that should shortly be the case.

 

Unfortunately, it appears that various countries with frequent travellers between them and China are already seeded, with case numbers increasing. From those numbers, it appears that, like the Chinese provinces, they too were seeded some time ago.

 

Given how likely that is, they are discussing how to determine at what point should a country start ramping up hospitals to handle a Covid-19 outbreak. Do they wait for an outbreak when numbers may soon explode, or wait to see if it explodes - but that is what China did. Should countries start ramping up some hospitals now. If so, how to determine how many would be prudent.

 

Some are suggesting that a global spread of the disease through populations is not only possible, but are likely inevitable, possibly with occasional or regular flareups of minor to major outbreaks, until such time as the population that survives has presumably developed immunity from exposure or a developed vaccine.
 

> They're not decided, let alone have a consensus, but this is part of what they're working on. They're taking it very seriously, not as an exercise in planning.

[PhantomJaguarr]

Target stores running out of hand sanitizer. Home Depot running out of masks. Or so I see from Snapchat video stories. And I hold my breath at work around each person who coughs and sneezes. End up yawning excessively because of it. Paranoia is a terrible thing..

[Canoe]

On 2/12/2020 at 4:02 AM, PhantomJaguar77 said:

Target stores running out of hand sanitizer. Home Depot running out of masks. Or so I see from Snapchat video stories. And I hold my breath at work around each person who coughs and sneezes. End up yawning excessively because of it. Paranoia is a terrible thing..

It helps prevent your catching the flu, which has killed over 12,000 Americans this season - so far...

And it's training for Covid-19.

Go to the CDC site and read up on preventing flu. Pretty much the same as Covid-19. Remember if someone coughs or sneezes, the droplets will be falling down, landing on surfaces. (wash them?) Don't touch your face. Wash your hands before you leave work, when you get home, and before anytime you eat/drink or prepare food.

 

***

 

Today's graphs. The CNHC daily update translation wasn't coming through, so I had generated interim graphs with some missing data, but just before I uploaded them, the translation came through.

 

The continued drop in Suspected is interesting. I've seen no official explanation of that. I hope it doesn't mean a meaningful number of them had worsening symptoms and are now Confirmed, possibly Severe. Severe does continue to rise, along with Confirmed, and new Confirmed continues to outpace the new Recovered. Hopefully the intensified Wuhan quarantine measures provides a real benefit.

 

 

 

***

 

New Cases in Hubei (Wuhan) continues to look like it may have peaked, but it's really too soon to know.

The province data has a spike in new cases, but really not out of line. The provincial models where suggesting their cities were lagging Wuhan's outbreak by a bit. Perhaps that lag means the alert out of Wuhan caught enough attention in time to better contain their outbreaks soon enough... But the provincial data contains multiple outbreaks, each with their own D0, which is a more likely explanation.

 

 

[Bombastinator]

On 2/12/2020 at 6:09 AM, Canoe said:

Today's graphs. The CNHC daily update translation wasn't coming through, so I had generated interim graphs with some missing data, but just before I uploaded them, the translation came through.

The top of those two graphs is disturbing as hell.  That drop is waaaaay too sharp and the other graphs aren’t following it.  How does severe cases keep going up with no change while suspected cases drops like a rock?  Something may be very very wrong in how theyre handeling suspected cases.   
 

UPDATE: ninja post issue.  The post above this one explains the issue.  Not deleting it only because doing so makes things even more confusing.

Edited February 20, 2020 by LogicalDrm
Update

[Canoe]

7 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

The top of those two graphs is disturbing as hell. ... Something may be very very wrong in how theyre handeling suspected cases.   

I checked the numbers and the graph. It's following correctly. It's the drop in Suspected, which I noted above. (edited)

Could be as simple as the door-to-door symptom check means more Suspected have resolved/recovered. Or gone to Confirmed, or its subset Severe. The one doctor's account showed that after presenting and getting Confirmed, some people would get in trouble within a week (and some in two?), which would put them into Severe. So Severe going up certainly matches earlier Confirmed numbers. A study I saw of 1,099 Pt.s had graphs that showed the same, for the first three week after Confirmed. But with the accounts and studies showing the disease has a long course, one to five weeks, we're still early.

[Bombastinator]

5 minutes ago, Canoe said:

I checked the numbers and the graph. It's following correctly. It's the drop in Suspected, which I noted above. (edited)

Could be as simple as the door-to-door symptom check means more Suspected have resolved/recovered. Or gone to Confirmed, or its subset Severe. The one doctor's account showed that after presenting and getting Confirmed, some people would get in trouble within a week (and some in two?), which would put them into Severe. So Severe going up certainly matches earlier Confirmed numbers. A study I saw of 1,099 Pt.s had graphs that showed the same, for the first three week after Confirmed. But with the accounts and studies showing the disease has a long course, one to five weeks, we're still early.

Yeah those two posts ninjad.  I didn’t see your explanation in the post below while I was writing the first one. You posted the explanation before I posted the reaction to the one above, but I couldn’t see your new post while I was writing so it came out sort of pointless. 

[mr moose]

5 hours ago, PhantomJaguar77 said:

Target stores running out of hand sanitizer. Home Depot running out of masks. Or so I see from Snapchat video stories. And I hold my breath at work around each person who coughs and sneezes. End up yawning excessively because of it. Paranoia is a terrible thing..

This is what greeted me at my local bunniings:

 

The thing that shits me the most is that many of us need those filters to protect against actual threats in our workshops (as opposed to viruses that aren't even in our state, when I run out of filters that means no more welding with fluxcore or stick, no more spray paint, no more sanding.  

 

[mr moose]

14 minutes ago, VegetableStu said:

wait, isn't the infection rate in states of the US like.... 1 to 3 per entire state? o_o why are you guys doing the exact thing as we are right now?

 

(to be clear, even I think we're overreacting in singapore ._.)

 

It's just a survival instinct,  those things trump logic and reason in most people.    I don't begrudge people the fear, but I do get shitty when it effects my business and I don't see a valid reason for it.   Should'a bough 3M stocks last year.

[Canoe]

Doctor in Germany treating Covid-29 patients said that three of four became symptom free, while tests showed they were still infected.

 

***

 

With the lower Recovered rates in Hubei, I'm wondering if Pt.s who are isolated from non Covid-19 Pt.s are isolated from each other. Or have exposure due to material transferred by staff.

• Could a Pt. Confirmed with Covid-19 be infected with one strain, and in isolation at some point catch a second strain from another Pt.?
• The Pt. recovery time would be dual? The time to recover from the first strain and an overlapped time to recover from the second strain?
• Once they've recovered from one strain, how much immunity would they have against other strains?
• There's at least 10 strains.

 

[Bombastinator]

1 hour ago, Canoe said:

Doctor in Germany treating Covid-29 patients said that three of four became symptom free, while tests showed they were still infected.

 

Contagious is the big one though.  It sort of depends on how that test works.  If they’re symptom free but contagious it’s a big problem .  If they’re not though it doesn’t matter.

[Canoe]

1 hour ago, Bombastinator said:

Contagious is the big one though.  It sort of depends on how that test works.  If they’re symptom free but contagious it’s a big problem .  If they’re not though it doesn’t matter.

Yes, infected, contagious, symptom free - test is positive.

The issues with that is, for someone previously Confirmed, what is their criteria to delcare them Recovered (and release them):

• they become symptom free, or
• they have x tests come back negative,

then which is it for different jurisdictions?

 

There's already two jurisdictions I heard of where one required four negative tests, and the other only two.

 

And if there can be overlapping Covid-19 strains, could someone test negative as the first has Recovered, but the second strain is undetected in low count as it is in incubation.

 

What I was getting at is, do they test for multiple strains. Is the long course for so many due to Covid-19 simply has a long course, or are a number of Pt.s having two or more overlapping courses of different strains. And for the Severe?

 

 

[Bombastinator]

39 minutes ago, Canoe said:

Yes, infected, contagious, symptom free - test is positive.

The issues with that is, for someone previously Confirmed, what is their criteria to delcare them Recovered (and release them):

• they become symptom free, or
• they have x tests come back negative,

then which is it for different jurisdictions?

 

There's already two jurisdictions I heard of where one required four negative tests, and the other only two.

 

And if there can be overlapping Covid-19 strains, could someone test negative as the first has Recovered, but the second strain is undetected in low count as it is in incubation.

 

What I was getting at is, do they test for multiple strains. Is the long course for so many due to Covid-19 simply has a long course, or are a number of Pt.s having two or more overlapping courses of different strains. And for the Severe?

 

 

The only reason recovered even matters is it is assumed they’re no longer contagious.  The pertinent questions are “is the patients life in danger?” and “can this person put other people’s life in danger?”  Imho that’s all of it.  A sniffle is just a sniffle.

[Canoe]

1 minute ago, Bombastinator said:

The only reason recovered even matters is it is assumed they’re no longer contagious. ...

I'm assuming that's the case for the graphs (symptomatic).

That's not the assumption medically. Covid-19 shedding or not after Recovered is as yet unknown...

 

[Bombastinator]

4 minutes ago, Canoe said:

I'm assuming that's the case for the graphs (symptomatic).

That's not the assumption medically. Covid-19 shedding or not after Recovered is as yet unknown...

 

That really really needs to be found out. If there’s a point earlier in disease progression where patients become non-contagious it could make things simpler and easier.  If however it is later in-place quarantine systems could be near useless.  Controlling transmission is every bit as important as preventing death because controlling transmission is what is GOING to prevent death.

[Guest]

Found this information interesting:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/11/the-coronavirus-appears-to-be-sparing-one-group-of-people-kids.html

 

So we already know that the population the most at risk are the elderly and those with pre-existent conditions. Some study also imply "Male Asian".

But it would seem that the ones who are "protected" naturaly would be the kids...

 

Could it be because of their developing bodies? Or because their bodies being more "active" (growth = more energy spent, plus more oxygenation of the blood cells and lungs more active too? ) they are more apt to oxygenate so?

 

 

[Andreas Lilja]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2020/02/10/bag-tiny-dead-birds-china-confiscated-passenger-dulles-airport/%3foutputType=amp

 

Aight China we need to talk. 

[Canoe]

33 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Found this information interesting:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/11/the-coronavirus-appears-to-be-sparing-one-group-of-people-kids.html

 

So we already know that the population the most at risk are the elderly and those with pre-existent conditions. Some study also imply "Male Asian".

But it would seem that the ones who are "protected" naturaly would be the kids...

 

Could it be because of their developing bodies? Or because their bodies being more "active" (growth = more energy spent, plus more oxygenation of the blood cells and lungs more active too? ) they are more apt to oxygenate so?

The predominant takeway from the two data sets so far is, predominant conditions. Which the elder have significantly more than children.

 

Also, someone would need to compare the demographics of the area against Suspect, Confirmed and Severe.

And for the initial 99 Pt. study, not all of them had run through to the end of their course of the disease.

I didn't check the 1099 Pt. Study.

 

Earlier today I saw a report that in some areas children seemed somewhat targeted by Covid-19, and it was infecting 'the youngest' children more. I just checked for it now and it was pulled. No idea how valid, except it was pulled.

 

 

*****************************************************

 

New study

Here's an explantion of the disease's long lead times...

Which unfortunately, I believe it would also makes undetected global seeding more likely; I haven't seen this in any reports yet.

 

I haven't read it yet. Just seen the bullets below.

 

https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974

 

Study: 1,324 Chinese #COVI19 patients led by Zhong Nanshan finds:

- incubation times out to 24 days

- only 43.8% of new patients have fevers

- after hospitalization 87.9% develop fever

- surveillance is missing many cases

- median patient age = 47, w/41% female

 

~edit:

Just found this

Quote

I wouldn’t trust the incubation period data. See limitations below - dates are likely unreliable. For such a guideline-changing finding, you think they'd have validated it a bit more. . (Downside of pre-prints...)

 

 

 

[PhantomJaguarr]

When Chinese scientists released the genetic sequence on Jan. 9, Inovio researchers got to work immediately and within 3 hours they had a vaccine for coronavirus, or COVID-19 as it is now being referred to. "We have an algorithm which we designed, and we put the DNA sequence into our algorithm and came up with the vaccine in that short amount of time," said Dr. Smith.

 

https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-vaccine-san-diego/509-e18e37f6-347c-4b08-ad33-910968abb04f

 

 

Meanwhile those quarantined for 14 days here will be released today. But WHO now says the virus has a incubation period of 24 days? ..

 

Fingers crossed.

[Deli]

 

A big spike today.

[Bombastinator]

Just now, Deli said:

Hate circle graphs.  They obscure a lot of territory and you never know if they’re using area radius or diameter