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Letgomyleghoe

corona virus

SansVarnic

Due to the nature of this topic, please keep cool heads and conversation On Topic.

Intentional Derailing, Political Rhetoric, or Arguing will result in removal of comments/replies and warnings issued.

 

The "No politics" rule will be enforced even harder. This will be last warning you get. If someone posts any political rhetoric (about parties, ideology, policy etc.), you will receive PM from moderator telling to step off the thread. As forum does not have functionality to do it better ways. If you continue to post ANYTHING after receiving PM, you will get warnings for not following staff instructions.

Posting news about what governments in your parts of world do in order to act on this crisis is fine, but will be looked case-by-case. (Updated 03/19/2020)

 

Remember the core values of this forum;

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  • Ensure a friendly atmosphere to our visitors and forum members.
  • Encourage the freedom of expression and exchange of information in a mature and responsible manner.
  • "Don't be a dick" - Wil Wheaton.
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Message added by SansVarnic

ATTENTION: there is a covid 19 F@H event happening, you can find it HERE.

 

this is a good opportunity to help with research!

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7 minutes ago, Andreas Lilja said:

Doubt it's doctored, but I can't read Chinese so I have no idea what's supposed to be outrageous. They're sick and didn't want to be put in quarantine?

It's like the aftermath of the fire that ripped through Paradise in California. I was using the database of the structure damage survey photos to see which types of houses/materials/features survived with what degree of damage. Someone accused me of cherry-picking the burnt down houses for drama, as that was what they saw in the media/social-media. I pointed out that people & news papers were cherry-picking the dramatic burn-downs, as that was what drew their attention or what sold newspapers/views. Whereas I was examining the ones that survived for takeaways on fire resistant building materials/methods.

 

Coming from the Epoch Times, that video is going to be cherry-picking, and that's just as a start.

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5 hours ago, Canoe said:

It's from the Epoch Times. I've been seeing their outright propaganda for years. I won't waste my time on anything they produce, other than for entertainment. This topic is not entertainment. If that video turns up at a legitimate source that has verified it as not Epoch Times actors, then I'll watch it. There's too much real information out there to be spending time on something from a source that produces propaganda and fabrications.

 

All I need to prevent wasting my time is seeing their logo in the upper left.

Propaganda as in RT and Al-Jazeera? I read these with an open mind. I mean, to make persuasive propaganda you should base it on a foundation of truth. Mind closure should be reserved for the Daily Mail. 


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On 2/10/2020 at 10:56 AM, Andreas Lilja said:

Propaganda as in RT and Al-Jazeera? I read these with an open mind. I mean, to make persuasive propaganda you should base it on a foundation of truth. Mind closure should be reserved for the Daily Mail. 

Way worse than RT and Al-Jazeera.

Yes, lies are best based on a truth, particularly if it's one people likely already 'know'. But they'll run with the tiniest shred and extrapolate and fabricate to a ludicrous degree. 

 

***

 

Added some polynomial trend lines (limited choices). Interesting to see, but not necessarily representative of what's actually going on. 402035651_2019-nCoVgraphdeltaConfirmed2020-02-09.thumb.png.696f8cfbae75b1d8c1fe9d3eba60b47c.png

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Kinda wish there was clearer data on new infections.  Also I’m not clear on the point at which an infected person is no longer contagious.  Right now I’m sort of assuming “recovered” and “dead” both mean no longer contagious.  Number of unquarantined contagious people is the creepy bit because they create more unquarantined contagious people.


Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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(C

On 2/10/2020 at 2:40 PM, Bombastinator said:

Kinda wish there was clearer data on new infections.  Also I’m not clear on the point at which an infected person is no longer contagious.  ...

 

Last I heard (yesterday), it is still unknown if Recovered people will be shedding the viruses for a time after recovery. As in, it's unknown if they're still a carrier. Too few cases outside of China for those to be valid to determine that.

 

There is clearer data on new infections, but you have to go to the CNHC daily update to extract that. My charts have only been showing the delta between the old net number and the new net number. I'm looking into seeing if there's an easy yet valid way of clearly representing that. No luck so far. And I only have their updates back to Feb 1st, which would still be useful. There's still the issue of where did they go when they left Suspected, or left Confirmed.

 

Then, ...

 

China is changing up their definition of Confirmed.

Quote
  • Chinese National Health Commission has changed their definition of #WuhanCoronavirus "confirmed case" in their latest guidelines dated 7/2. Patients tested positive for the virus but have no symptoms will no longer be regarded as confirmed.
  • this new Chinese #coronavirus case definition goes directly against WHO interim guidance that defines a Confirmed Case as any: “person with laboratory confirmation irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms”. CCP is clearly violating that.
  • As result of the “revised” #coronavirus case definition (in violation of @WHO rules), China has begun retroactive scrubbing of their case numbers... reports indicate by deducting 100 cases from past 2 days.

Claims:

  • that Japan is also not counting confirmed asymptomatic cases.
  • (in China) the asymptomatic carriers are put in a separate category under strict quarantine.
    • (If true, I'm not seeing that number in the translation of the CHNC daily update.)

 

So the numbers just because more questionable.

 

***

 

In other discussions, ...

 

Zones with infections outside of China are reporting:

  • imported infections
  • transmissions from imported
  • transmissions from non-imported
  • and now, infections from non-imported, with no known contact with a known carrier

Combine that with roughly half of all transmissions occur while the carrier is in their incubation period, and a number later present with symptoms so mild that they're almost asymptomatic - as in, they're walking around and going to work without any visible symptoms.


Experts seem to be getting concerned about the extent of seeding outside of China, thinking it's likely already in place more thoroughly than detected.

  • It could be present but largely hidden, due to so many having mild symptoms, but they're carriers during incubation, after symptoms appear, and possibly shedding and exposing for a period after they recover. Many may never realize, or have realized, that they had something serious.
  • They're considering if that seeding is already happening in multiple locations around the world, or soon will as those infected slowly grows, until a breakout which will get detected.
  • Calls to plan for, and to consider starting, ramping up hospitals now in preparation for the increasing likelihood of outbreaks.

***

 

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30313-5

 

Quote

 

... As ophthalmologists, we believe that transmission of 2019-nCoV through the eyes was ignored.

On Jan 22, Guangfa Wang, a member of the national expert panel on pneumonia, reported that he was infected by 2019-nCoV during the inspection in Wuhan.

He wore an N95 mask but did not wear anything to protect his eyes. Several days before the onset of pneumonia, Wang complained of redness of the eyes. Unprotected exposure of the eyes to 2019-nCoV in the Wuhan Fever Clinic might have allowed the virus to infect the body.

...

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) is predominantly transmitted through direct or indirect contact with mucous membranes in the eyes, mouth, or nose.The fact that exposed mucous membranes and unprotected eyes increased the risk of SARS-CoV transmissionsuggests that exposure of unprotected eyes to 2019-nCoV could cause acute respiratory infection.

...

The respiratory tract is probably not the only transmission route for 2019-nCoV, and all ophthalmologists examining suspected cases should wear protective eyewear.

 

 

***

On 2/10/2020 at 2:40 PM, Bombastinator said:

Kinda wish there was clearer data on new infections.  ...

Could be shown by a bar graph. For each day:

  • New Confirmed
  • Resolved Confirmed
  • net Confirmed

But that wouldn't give us where the Resolved Confirmed went to.

 

Could also show Severe, a subset of Confirmed:

  • new Severe
  • net Severe
  • then calculate those resolved (then compare to Deaths & Recovered)
Quote

 

from CNHC Feb 9, 2020 daily update

  • 3,062 new cases (2,618 in Hubei), 296 new severe cases (258 in Hubei) ...
  • 35,982 cases (including 6,484 severe cases) ...
  • 4,008 new suspected cases (2,272 in Hubei). ...
  • currently 23,589 suspected cases ...

 

 

Edited by Canoe
added quote of person I'm answering; added "(in China)"
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16 minutes ago, Canoe said:

Meanwhile I’m seeing reports in major news that Chinese plants are opening up again.   If they do this and there is a reinfection the whole thing is a false economy because there will be much much worse problems and everything will just have to be shut down again, except without the convenience of lunar new year.  They may quadruple their losses because of short term greed


Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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12 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

Meanwhile I’m seeing reports in major news that Chinese plants are opening up again.   If they do this and there is a reinfection the whole thing is a false economy because there will be much much worse problems and everything will just have to be shut down again, except without the convenience of lunar new year.  They may quadruple their losses because of short term greed

I've read one opinion where they believe the Chinese powers that be need them open and shipping again. Given the low death rate, and the majority with mild symptoms, it's low risk, and anyway they can afford to lose a million people. And if they do, those that survive will likely have immunity moving forward, so the people will be stronger. Whereas they can't afford to lose the immediate $ from their economy, and longer term lose greater $$$ if various of their markets develop alternate sources while Chinese plants are down and not shipping. The longer they're down, the greater the risk to the economy.

 

I find it disturbingly credible.

 

I don't know how the Chinese owning the debt of so many around the world does or can play into this. Definitely above my pay grade...

Edited by Canoe
added 'disturbingly credible'
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6 minutes ago, Tony Tony Chopper said:

Now i am really getting worried.

The 7th was a while ago.  This may have been put back.  There was a weird hump in the graph that straightened out again. 
 

Right now my major hope is that the Chinese government won’t be swayed by businesses wanting to get their workers back on the job in the face of it being a really bad idea.   
 

That’s something I think the US would have a bigger problem with than China.  That they caught this thing rather than the US is pure luck-of-the draw I think and we can hope that the remains of their system can weather it better than we could.  If this thing happened I. The US there’d be all kinds of businessmen poo pooing the risked because they want to make budget and screw how much trouble it causes down the road.  


Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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I just watched a recent documentary show "Zooming In" about the present situation with the Coronavirus in China.

It's on NTD (never heard of it) a NY based news and entertainment channel.

I don't know how valid this is. Seems they run since 2001.

 

But I found some of the information expressed in the show interesting.

 

On another note, on the Diamong Princess (quarantine cruise ship in Japan) the toll (sick people) is now more than 130. Yesterday it was 62.

I read somewhere that on the 3700 passengers on the ship "only" 300 have been tested. Don't really know what this can mean. Do they test only those who start presenting some symptoms? No idea.

 

A good news on the other hand, one of the cruise ship quarantined in HK port has been released and the passengers are now "free" ?  The suspected infected employees finally are not ^o^

 

Now... The Death toll is more than 900, officially.

 

 

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23 hours ago, Tony Tony Chopper said:

Now i am really getting worried.

You missed the rest of it, posted six or seven posts above yours

Quote

(in China) the asymptomatic carriers are put in a separate category under strict quarantine.

We don't know yet how this is playing out.

 

23 hours ago, Cora_Lie said:

Now... The Death toll is more than 900, officially.

The 2019-nCoV death toll.

Multiple sources have said that if someone wasn't on the Confrimed list (hence under care), and dropped dead outside the hospital (as seen on multiple videos), they aren't counted as they're not in the 2019-nCoV system...

 

23 hours ago, Bombastinator said:

... Right now my major hope is that the Chinese government won’t be swayed by businesses wanting to get their workers back on the job in the face of it being a really bad idea.   
...

I believe you have it reversed: the concern is that the Chinese government pushes the businesses to get back producing before overseas customers develop alternate (non-Chinese) suppliers.

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1 hour ago, Canoe said:

The 2019-nCoV death toll.

Multiple sources have said that if someone wasn't on the Confrimed list (hence under care), and dropped dead outside the hospital (as seen on multiple videos), they aren't counted as they're not in the 2019-nCoV system...

Yes... I said that several times in previous posts...

That's why I added "officially" ^o^

 

Edited to add:

If the death toll was really "900" deaths from the NCP and regarding that the 3 crematoriums in Wuhan received the instructions from the State to treat any death in the hospitals and from home as being from the NCP, hence that all corpses are to be cremated (and the employees MUST wear the complete gear) and they complain that they have to work 24/7 for the past 3 week and they can't keep up with work... I read somewhere that they have a 3 days worth of work backlog...

 

I wrote in a precious post that the death toll from this is much higher, weither it's directly from the NCP or indirectly (people who don't have access to their medicine to treat previously diagnosed conditions because of quarantine, or because they caught something "urgent" - as in surgery, heart attack, etc. - but can't get treated because of quarantine).

Plus as some sick are not diagnosed of NCP because of reason X, Y or Z, families don't have the money to treat them and hence they die at home and are not in the statistics...

 

We will never know the real numbers. Because they (chinese State) decided to muddy the waters in such a manner that now it's simple impossible.

We can extrapolate, try to deduce, etc. But it's too late to know for sure.

 

And now that they decided to re-open the plants, the airports and the stations... Well... There you are...

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18 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

And now that they decided to re-open the plants, the airports and the stations... Well... There you are...

Is that official now?

Happening yet?

 

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1 minute ago, Cora_Lie said:

On one side you have this:

and on the other side you have:

So... ?‍♀️

So they fly two flags and see which one wins?

Or the truth falls in between...

sigh

 

p.s.

I hadn't thought at all about losses from all the other medical cases that couldn't get timely attention. Or that decided that they'd better stay clear of the infected hospital. Especially if they saw all those videos of the chaos of packed hallways trying to get tested.

If there were stats on crematorium capacity, usage, etc., but highly unlikely. But someone might be able to come up with a figure that's in the correct ballpark.

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Interesting article regarding the risk and Africa on Medxirv.org

"Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against introductions of 2019-nCoV"

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.05.20020792v1.full.pdf

 

***

 

ok... here we are now... I wrote 900+ deaths less than an hour ago, that was the number at 1pm today in France. Now we have reached 1,011 deaths.

Quote

5:18 pm Eastern time: Death toll in China exceeds 1,000

The death toll in mainland China topped 1,011, according to Chinese state media. One death each has been reported Hong Kong and the Philippines. The number of infections in mainland China reached almost 42,300, bringing the total number of cases across the world to more than 42,700 as of Monday night. — Kopecki

source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

 

So please, don't compare to the flu anymore... This is nowhere near the flu case...

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10 hours ago, Bombastinator said:

Kinda wish there was clearer data on new infections.

Turns out the delta in Confirmed Cases is the New Confirmed.

I was fooled when reconciling the various data sources for the Feb 9th data as the Chinese numbers contained the "correction" due to pulling Confirmed Asymptomatic out of Confirmed count. Bad from an official stats and WHO rules, but it makes sense clinically as Confirmed Asymptomatic don't need any medical treatment, just quarantine as they're carriers.

China's Total Cases was total accumulated Confirmed:

  • Confirmed under isolation and under medical care
    • a subset of which is Severe
  • Recovered (released from care)
  • Deaths

So the Confirmed Asymptomatic didn't fit... They weren't Recovered, nor Deaths, nor under medical care. lol It may have been a bureaucrat going "you don't fit!" So they pulled their numbers out instead of adding a Confirmed category for Asymptomatic.

 

But, less work for me.

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Just now, Flying Sausages said:

This is a man made virus not mother nature virus. 

Santa Claus also is "man made", doesn't make it more real...

Mother Nature doesn't need humans to be "creative"...

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3 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

ok... here we are now... I wrote 900+ deaths, that was the number at 1pm today in France. Now we have reached 1,011 deaths.

source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

 

So please, don't compare to the flu anymore... This is nowhere near the flu case...

My sources don't show that yet. Have to wait for CNHC's daily update.

But 1000+ is not a surprise. Last three days were 89, 95 and 85 (specific numbers per day are skewed, due to different snapshot times) and the total was 907.

 

Nowhere near the flu case?

Over 12,000 dead in the U.S. so far this 2019/2020 flu season.

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Just now, Canoe said:

My sources don't show that yet. Have to wait for CNHC's daily update.

But 1000+ is not a surprise. Last three days were 89, 95 and 85 (specific numbers per day are skewed, due to different snapshot times) and the total was 907.

 

Nowhere near the flu case?

Over 12,000 dead in the U.S. so far this 2019/2020 flu season.

Yes... during the season...  Here... 30 days...

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3 minutes ago, Flying Sausages said:

This is a man made virus not mother nature virus. 

There are no indications of that.

There was one report of such, but that was sorted out quickly and withdrawn once the highly "ambitious" findings were corrected with facts. Same for having some 'same' sequences as HIV; true, but true for many organisms - not unique to HIV by a long shot.

 

2019-nCoVs are even older on the tree than SARS. Looks like an unfortunate transmission from bush meat to humans.

2019-nCoV genetic tree.jpg

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5 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Santa Claus also is "man made", doesn't make it more real...

Mother Nature doesn't need humans to be "creative"...

Maybe Satan Claus is real and we haven't discovered him yet like many things we haven't learned and discovered yet.

 

But this Coronavirus is man made virus that got escape out of China level 4 lab built near the foods market. I believe the purpose is to control China huge population. The China communist party is controlling the media so i don't know if the statistic we got from media is accurate. 

 

Airport temperature screening is obsolete because some people won't show symptom at all. Some will show symptom after a day getting in contact with the virus 

 

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Just now, Flying Sausages said:

Maybe Satan Claus is real and we haven't discovered him yet like many things we haven't learned and discovered yet.

 

But this Coronavirus is man made virus that got escape out of China level 4 lab built near the foods market. I believe the purpose is to control China huge population. The China communist party is controlling the media so i don't know if the statistic we got from media is accurate. 

 

Airport temperature screening is obsolete because some people won't show symptom at all. Some will show symptom after a day getting in contact with the virus 

 

?‍♀️

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5 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Yes... during the season...  Here... 30 days...

Experts are saying D0 back in November. Takes a long time before enough are infected for it to turn into an outbreak.

Which is related to the more recent concern about increasing likelihood that international seeding has already occurred, but is under-detected due to so many with such mild symptoms.

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