corona virus

[Bombastinator]

49 minutes ago, Canoe said:

When that came out (Jan 31st), various epidemiologistsits were treating its numbers as middle of the road among the predictive models. It's graphics got passed around a lot. It's 75,000 baseline was ranging from 30,000 to 150,000 in other models, and I think I saw 170k in one.

Interesting indeed.  My brain gave out at page 3 sadly.  I’m a bit disappointed in my brain.  I want to know what it says.  I’ll save it for later.  Thankyou for the link

 

For what it’s worth I think @Canoe is also rockin this

[Bombastinator]

Just now, EdicionAudio said:

Have you guys seen the news that the coronavirus was predicted by a bigdata company? If you see the guesses they did about also the infected and dead people they are pretty accurate

The problem with after the fact predictions is that there are billions of em and they predict almost everything so one of em is always going to be right.  The adage is “even a stopped clock is right twice a day”. What gets interesting is when they use the same model and it keeps on being repetitively right.

[Canoe]

Some of that province data "caught up"...

 

2019-nCoV - Time Line - Cases              
Snapshot 2020-02-07 10 pm EST
65,415 Confirmed & Suspected, 34,842 Confirmed, 30,573 Suspected, 6,101 Severe
723 Deaths, 2063 Recovered, 32,056 (92%) Unresolved   
31,774 cases under isolation and medical care
345,498 close contacts, of which 189,660 are under medical observation

 

***

Spoiler

 

 

 

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

***

On 2/8/2020 at 3:11 AM, Cora_Lie said:

I know... that's why I waited for so long before putting it here...

Most of the time this kind of article will either be confirmed, modified or retired.

 

This one has been modified/updated 5 days after 1st being published, which in scientific publication means it has been approved and upgraded. Hence  it has gained in credibility.

Well yes, you know. But others don't.

 

It wasn't modified/updated. It had errors that were corrected, and the corrected version made available on Feb 4th. That is a material difference. A large number of the early research have seen corrections. They were scrambling so quickly, errors are made, the study of such early information is surpassed by new information, or the significance of findings were found to be overstated, and sometimes outright wrong (one group of authors got told by their agency head that their data actually showed the opposite of what they stated their finding was...). It has been an astoundingly rapid response. And the consensus among them allowed the various authorities early and rapidly improving indications of what they were facing.

 

The study you posted got a huge amount of traction from researchers & planners on Feb 1st, as they passed details, additional data/opinions, and discussed implications. But not much since then, as that study's findings takeaway has already been bypassed by actual events. Increasing outbreaks in increasing multiple Chinese cities, cities quarantined, outbreaks outside of China, especially where there's "close travel links", scaling back (with some shutdowns) of travel links, and preparedness plans were dusted off, updated, adjusted to adapt to 2019-nCoV and are being implemented and updated as necessary. Much of which was confirmed or underway by the time their corrections were made available on Feb 4th. (Which I think is about the time the study's graphics got a re-surge in some news articles.)

 

What's really interesting about that early study is how it incorporates a zoonotic link. Later data determined that only around 30% of November cases had a potential zoonotic link, and human to human transmission was the norm.

Watching and waiting on confirmation of reports of a Chinese new paper article said to be based on a unpublished study:

• We maybe found the potential virus original host - the pangolin. A virus strain isolated from it has 99% match with 2019-nCOV. And it was found previously at the market.

 

Quote

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)302

 

Added value of this study

In the absence of a robust and complete line list for characterising the epidemiology of this novel pathogen, we inferred the outbreak size of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan from the number of confirmed cases that have been exported to cities outside mainland China. We used this outbreak size estimate to project the number of cases that have been exported to other Chinese cities. We forecasted the spread of 2019-nCoV both within and outside of mainland China.

 

Implications of all the available evidence

Preparedness plans should be readied for quick deployment worldwide, especially in cities with close travel links with Wuhan and other major Chinese cities.

***

On 2/8/2020 at 4:59 AM, Bombastinator said:

...The adage is “even a stopped clock is right twice a day”. What gets interesting is when they use the same model and it keeps on being repetitively right.

And then when that happens, but it's been updated with the newer or better data...

Various of the early models are starting to be 'verified' by newer data, but the R0 values in use for those were so variable, somebody had to hit it.

 

p.s.

Recovered to Deaths finally up to around 3:1.

 

And now for something completely different on the Wuhan / virus front...

 

https://thetakeout.com/wuhan-hot-dry-noodles-coronavirus-1841519191

 

***

 

p.s.

It should be noted that when errors have been found, in every occurrence I came across that was being passed around, errors were quickly identified and any parts with forward moving relevance passed around again. Some authors, when errors were pointed out, found more errors and made sure those were known too. Even knowing something isn't a certain way has value.

• Mostly, response to authors publishing errors or corrections has been positive by epidemiologists and their like, even praising them.
• By the public? Not very understanding. But even after excluding the comments from those that appear mentally ill or emotionally unstable, a majority of comments from the general public seem to be from people who have failed to understand what is written in very clear English (not sure if it's an IQ issue, they were stressed/rushed, or perhaps there's an issue with accurate comprehension vs. mother tongue).

 

News articles and their errors?

Not so much...

Did it sell papers/views?

 

***

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/reporters-notebook-life-and-death-in-a-wuhan-coronavirus-icu

A doctor's account...

Quote

...

As the contagion spread and flooded his ICU, the doctor observed that three weeks seemed to determine the difference between life and death. Patients with stronger immune systems would start to recover in a couple of weeks, but in the second week, some cases would take a turn for the worse.

 

In the third week, keeping some of these acute patients alive might require extraordinary intervention. For this group, the death rate seems to be 4 per cent to 5 per cent, Dr Peng said. After working his 12-hour daytime shifts, the doctor spends his evenings researching the disease and has summarised his observations in a thesis.

 

The doctors and nurses at his hospital are overwhelmed with patients. Once they don protective hazmat suits, they go without food, drink and bathroom breaks for their entire shifts. That's because there aren't enough of the suits for a mid-shift change, he said.

 

Over the past month on the front lines of the coronavirus battle, Dr Peng has been brought to tears many times when forced to turn away patients for lack of staffing and beds. He said what really got to him, though, was the death of an acutely ill pregnant woman when treatment stopped for lack of money - the day before the government decided to pick up the costs of all coronavirus treatments.

...

On Jan 6, with the patient in the emergency room, we did quarantine remodelling in the emergency room and did major renovations to the ICU (intensive care unit). South Central Hospital's ICU has 66 beds in total. We kept a space dedicated to coronavirus patients. I knew the infectiousness of the disease. There were bound to be more people coming in, so we set aside 16 beds. We did quarantine renovations on the infectious diseases area because respiratory illnesses are transmitted through the air, so even air has to be quarantined so that inside the rooms the air can't escape. At the time, some said that the ICU had a limited number of beds and 16 was excessive.

...

You had to have had exposure to the South China Seafood Market, you needed to have had a fever and test positive for the virus. You had to meet all three criteria in order to be diagnosed. The third one was especially stringent. In reality, very few people were able to test for a virus.

...

On Jan 18, the high-level specialists from the National Health Commission came to Wuhan, to South Central Hospital to inspect. ... I told them this was infectious; if you made the criteria too high and let patients go, you're putting society in danger. After the second national team of specialists came, the criteria were changed. The number of diagnosed patients rose quickly

...

PRESENTATION (from the above article's doctor)

Quote

I've observed that the breakout period of the novel coronavirus tends to be three weeks, from the onset of symptoms to developing difficulties breathing. Basically going from mild to severe symptoms takes about a week. There are all sorts of mild symptoms: feebleness, shortness of breath, some people have fevers, some don't. Based on studies of our 138 cases, the most common symptoms in the first stage are

• fever (98.6 per cent of cases),
• feebleness (69.6 per cent),
• cough (59.4 per cent),
• muscle pains (34.8 per cent), difficulties breathing (31.2%),
• while less common symptoms include headaches, dizziness, stomach pain, diarrhea, nausea, vomiting.

... (second and third week symptoms and presentation is in the article)

...

 

 

OUTCOME (from the above article)

Quote

 

...

For most, the illness is over in two weeks, whereas for those for whom the illness becomes severe, if they can survive three weeks, they're good. Those that can't will die in three weeks.

...

Peng: Based on my clinical observations, this disease is highly contagious, but the mortality rate is low. Those that progressed into the life-threatening stage often occurred in the elderly already with chronic diseases.

 

As of Jan 28, of 138 cases, 36 were in the ICU, 28 recovered, five died. That is to say, the mortality rate of patients with severe conditions was 3.6 per cent. Yesterday (Feb 3), another patient died, bringing the mortality rate to 4.3 per cent. Given patients in the ICU, it is likely to have more deaths. The mortality rate is also likely to edge up but not significantly.

...

 

 

***

 

Here's an example of how the asymptomatic carrier transmission is an issue.

 

Article published on February 8, 2020.

• A Briton had stayed in Singapore on a business trip from 20 to 23 January.
• Arrived at Contamines-Montjoie ski resort, in Haute-Savoie, France, on 24 January for a four-day trip.
• Returned to England on 28 January.
• On his return to the UK, he is thought to have isolated himself at home and called NHS 111.
• After a positive test on Feb 6 in Brighton, he was taken to St Thomas' Hospital in London where he is being treated.
• Feb 7. The Brighton man told UK authorities that he had visited a chalet in Contamines-Montjoie, prompting French officials to take the 11 Britons staying there to hospitals in Lyon, Saint-Etienne and Grenoble on Friday night.
• The chalet has two apartments where two families were staying, French authorities said in a news conference. A British couple and their three children, who are now resident in France, lived in one.
• Five tested positive for coronavirus.
• Those with the virus are the father of the family resident in France and his nine-year-old son, as well as three members of the visiting family.
  • The mother is in the UK at the moment and has been contacted.
• The nine-year-old boy attends the local school and has French classes at another school in St-Gervais.
  • Both schools will be shut next week, and parents are being asked to keep their children under observation.
• Public Health England also advised a student at Portslade Aldridge Community Academy in Brighton to self-isolate for 14 days.
  • The school said it had been advised by health authorities that there was no need to close.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51425702

[NumLock21]

Some of the idiots on social media, are trying to compare the Coronavirus with the seasonal flu saying flu kills way more, and those of us who are concerned with this deadly outbreak, need to get a grip, and it's no big deal.

The comparison is flawed. Season flu has been around quite some time, we have medicines, vaccines, antibiotics, etc. Coronavirus on the other hand we don't have anything to fight it. As of now we're just using what we have our disposal, with trial and error, hoping the outcome is positive.

Protip: Don't listen to those on social media, cover up and stay safe.

[Donut417]

2 minutes ago, NumLock21 said:

Season flu has been around quite some time, we have medicines, vaccines, antibiotics, etc.

We have treatments and vaccines for select strains. Remember the flu is not just 1 virus, its more like a classifcation of virus. Influenza 1918 was a very severe strain that killed a large number of people. That could happen again. Due to the use of Anti biotics virus's have become more resistant and those same medicines less effective. Its also a fact that the flu does kill. Older people and young children dont have a strong enough immune system. The only reason thing with the flu is that we know a lot about the virus's that exist and we do have some treatments, but its still very severe and dangerous for some. 

 

5 minutes ago, NumLock21 said:

need to get a grip,

Id would agree there is need for concern. This is a new strain, we dont know much about it and we need to learn more. But the fact is we do need to take a step back and calm down. There are have desease like this before, like Influenza 1918, The Black Death, Polio, and Small Pox. We have to trust that the powers that be have things well in hand, this is not our first rodeo. 

[NumLock21]

5 minutes ago, Donut417 said:

But the fact is we do need to take a step back and calm down. There are have desease like this before, like Influenza 1918, The Black Death, Polio, and Small Pox. We have to trust that the powers that be have things well in hand, this is not our first rodeo. 

It seems there is this attitude of, there is little to none being infected here, why should I care. Being calm in a time like is essential, as not to cause panic, but one still needs to be cautious and not downplay this deadly outbreak as if it's nothing.

[Canoe]

On 2/8/2020 at 10:45 PM, NumLock21 said:

Some of the idiots on social media, are trying to compare the Coronavirus with the seasonal flu saying flu kills way more, and those of us who are concerned with this deadly outbreak, need to get a grip, and it's no big deal.

That and the backlash against it. I've seen so much information misunderstood on social media with this whole thing, it's unreal how many stupid people there are out there.

 

What the medical people were pointing out, is that right now you should be taking measures to protect yourself from flu, which for example has already killed over 12,000 people in the U.S. this 2019-2020 flu season. Check the CDC site for the influenza update.

AND, if you're weakened from fighting off the flu, that makes you more susceptible if you're ever exposed to 2019-nCoV, as you're relying upon your immune system to fight it off, without benefit of vaccine or treatments.

Then the stupid people ran back and forth with it...

 

Various medical sources on twitter appear to have given up trying to explain things to the idiots. They present their info in a clear and concise manner, and the idiots appear "You said it was red. Does that mean it's blue?"

The last time I saw people so confused was a poor guy on a course in Chicago trying to wrap his head around hexadecimal. He was almost crying saying it's either numbers or letters, it can't be both.

 

And at least one person made an app to make money off of a service that updates you on the latest 2019-nCoV numbers from the usual sources. So now I see the Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard includes 

Quote

This website and its contents herein, including all data, mapping, and analysis (“Website”), copyright 2020 Johns Hopkins University, all rights reserved, is provided to the public strictly for educational and academic research purposes.  The Website relies upon publicly available data from multiple sources, that do not always agree. The Johns Hopkins University hereby disclaims any and all representations and warranties with respect to the Website, including accuracy, fitness for use, and merchantability.  Reliance on the Website for medical guidance or use of the Website in commerce is strictly prohibited.

(I've had to type 2019-nCoV so many times I think my fingers have memorized it. I'm going to be really pissed when they finally come out with a name and I have to change it up...)

 

On 2/8/2020 at 10:58 PM, Donut417 said:

... Due to the use of Anti biotics virus's have become more resistant and those same medicines less effective. ...

How is it that antibiotics that affect bacteria have made viruses more resistant... With some virus infections some people are given antibiotics, but that is to treat or prevent a secondary bacterial infection.

[Deli]

1 hour ago, Donut417 said:

We have treatments and vaccines for select strains. Remember the flu is not just 1 virus, its more like a classifcation of virus. Influenza 1918 was a very severe strain that killed a large number of people. That could happen again. Due to the use of Anti biotics virus's have become more resistant and those same medicines less effective. Its also a fact that the flu does kill. Older people and young children dont have a strong enough immune system. The only reason thing with the flu is that we know a lot about the virus's that exist and we do have some treatments, but its still very severe and dangerous for some. 

 

Id would agree there is need for concern. This is a new strain, we dont know much about it and we need to learn more. But the fact is we do need to take a step back and calm down. There are have desease like this before, like Influenza 1918, The Black Death, Polio, and Small Pox. We have to trust that the powers that be have things well in hand, this is not our first rodeo. 

You mention Black Death. I hope this corona virus won't develop to such nightmare scenario.

 

[Canoe]

On 2/9/2020 at 12:39 AM, Deli said:

You mention Black Death. I hope this corona virus won't develop to such nightmare scenario.

 

It shouldn't. There's not been enough time yet to know with it's such a long recovery/death time. But so far every indication is that it's like the doctor in Wuhan said

Quote

Peng: Based on my clinical observations, this disease is highly contagious, but the mortality rate is low. Those that progressed into the life-threatening stage often occurred in the elderly already with chronic diseases.

There are too many factors to determine a reliable Case Fatality Rate number. Althought right now it appears highest in Wuhan, then Hubei, then other cities in China, and even lower outside of China. There are a number of explanations for that being that way, or that it's under stated, or over stated. It is too soon to be determined. They can only do the premature calculation and watch as it gets updated. Daily.

 

***

 

I've been watching the Severe cases number climbing and then a tiny jump and started slowly accelerating. The Severe cases are the ones at risk of dying. It's interesting, but not conclusive, to note the First Week expectations that Dr. Peng laid out with the potential to progress to Severe, with the Severe count accelerating occuring roughly five days after the Hubei Confirmed case count took a jump and started accelerating.

I do not like that upturn in the Severe Cases count.

 

China has over 62,000 cases diagnosed or confirmed, that are infected and can infect others.

They now believe that half of the transmissions take place during the carrier's incubation period.

Plus, it's not yet known if pt.s will be shedding for a period of time after they recover.

 

 

[Andreas Lilja]

Anything effective I could purchase from Gwyneth Paltrow's website?

[Canoe]

3 hours ago, NumLock21 said:

... Season flu has been around quite some time, we have medicines, vaccines, antibiotics, etc. Coronavirus on the other hand we don't have anything to fight it. As of now we're just using what we have our disposal, with trial and error, hoping the outcome is positive.

As samples became available as infected were identified outside of China (they'd share some case data, but not any samples...), they started ramping up to develop a vaccine, test existing treatments for effectiveness, to develop new ones, determine & package interim tests, and to develop 2019-nCoV specific tests with sensitivity, specificity and PPV (Positive Predictive Value). That's part of why they made it a priority and had the genome sequenced so quickly. It's astounding what happened last week, then again this past week. The numbers have them scared, The rate at which the numbers are growing has them scared, as its potential is not yet well enough known. It's being controlled, but it is not yet under control.

[Canoe]

On 2/9/2020 at 1:15 AM, Tony Tony Chopper said:

I worry about the fact non recovered so far in Europe on America.

Based on https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Don't be. Dr. Peng in Wuhan is reporting it can take weeks to recover.

Austrailia already has some Recovered.

 

On 2/9/2020 at 1:38 AM, Andreas Lilja said:

Anything effective I could purchase from Gwyneth Paltrow's website?

I'd expect that anything purchased from her website is effective at increasing her wealth.

[Letgomyleghoe]

1 hour ago, Canoe said:

I'd expect that anything purchased from her website is effective at increasing her wealth.

Like a gwyneth Paltrow pussie candle?

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Canoe said:

(I've had to type 2019-nCoV so many times I think my fingers have memorized it. I'm going to be really pissed when they finally come out with a name and I have to change it up...)

You mean like "NCP" (for "Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia")???

 

(but it's not definitive yet... ^o^ )

[PineyCreek]

I know that this is much maligned these days with people saying it's an attention grabber, but honestly and from the heart: thoughts, prayers, good vibes, divine intervention, BOGO coupons, and anything else that can be considered good...may all this go towards the people experiencing the virus, those researching it, those treating it, and all of those people's families and friends impacted by it, regardless of country, race, color, creed, religion and/or favorite ice cream flavor.

[greenmax]

1 hour ago, scuff gang said:

Like a gwyneth Paltrow pussie candle?

She is one hot babe, I bet she travels to China on a regular basis.

 

Hope she doesnt contract the virus.

[mr moose]

6 hours ago, Andreas Lilja said:

Anything effective I could purchase from Gwyneth Paltrow's website?

Does she sell salt lamps, I hear they cure everything.  Crystals maybe?   Because the only downside to salt lamps and crystals is the bit where if they don't work you die.

[Arika]

11 minutes ago, mr moose said:

Does she sell salt lamps, I hear they cure everything.  Crystals maybe?   Because the only downside to salt lamps and crystals is the bit where if they don't work you die.

[mr moose]

3 minutes ago, Arika S said:

Bloody fool, doesn't she know that using glue on crystals shorts out the energy flow?

[Canoe]

Some changes in the latest graph of cases.

• I'm not reporting the 'top' provinces individually anymore. The values were so low compared to the various totals that they weren't relative, and
• with Deaths & Recovered getting high enough, it's more meaningful to see them in context of the other values.
• Colours have changed some to, as we still have Mainland China Confirmed, Hubei Confirmed and Balance of Mainland (China) Confirmed.
• I've added China Symptomatic, which includes Confirmed, Suspected, less Deaths & Recovered. This is the minimum number of 'official' cases which are presenting with diagnosed symptoms and are therefore contagious. Note: to get this minimum number, this assumes that Recovered are no longer shedding and are not contagious, which has not yet been determined.
• Severe cases have an emphasized line, due to their importance as these are the ones most at risk of losing their life. The value is only slightly higher than yesterday, reducing (for now) an accelerating trend.

The value for Suspected cases has dropped from yesterday's value. The translation I have of yesterday's CNHC daily update didn't provide a total Suspected cases, just the daily increment of 4,214 which I added to the prior day's value for 30,573. Today, it resumed giving a total, 28,942 and also provided the daily increment of 3,916. Using the daily increment added to yesterday's value, the total is much higher. This must mean that contrary to prior reports, the value for total Suspected is being adjusted for both new Suspected cases and Suspected cases which are no longer suspect. A good candidate for this is the Wuhan door-to-door check for symptoms and/or former Suspected cases that became Confirmed; that was speculation, I have had no reports of that, and it is contrary to what has been declared previously.

 

 

 

***

 

Third day in a row with an increase in the daily Recovered.
 

Spoiler

 

 

Spoiler

 

 

Edited February 9, 2020 by Canoe
missed describing Severe

[zassou]

im kinda scary atm

 

i woke up this morning with a headache, funny stomache and sour limbs. i dont feeling cold or anything, i dont think i have a fever but i dont have a thermometer at hand. i have chronic stomache problem so it's expected. i had some tylenol minutes ago and hope it can ease the headache. if not, ill have to call the hospital.

[Canoe]

On 2/9/2020 at 12:04 PM, Tony Tony Chopper said:

Talking about America and Europe not australia

Yes.

But at least Australia has some Recovered and they're not in Asia, but you probably noticed that.

 

Johns Hopkins CSSE is now showing 1 Recovered in Seattle WA.

 

From all accounts and all numbers, Recovery takes time. Weeks.

 

***

 

I couldn't find a 'nice' data set for SARS, so I finally had to slog through the WHO daily summaries to get the total cumulative cases for each day. 

 

 

[Monkey Dust]

10 hours ago, Cora_Lie said:

You mean like "NCP" (for "Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia")???

 

(but it's not definitive yet... ^o^ )

I think "Doomsday PANIC! PANIC! virus" has a catchier ring to it

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Monkey Dust said:

I think "Doomsday PANIC! PANIC! virus" has a catchier ring to it

Quote

The 2019 novel coronavirus (provisionally named 2019-nCoV, novel coronavirus pneumonia and NCP),^[1][2][3][4] informally known as the Wuhan coronavirus,^[5][6] is a contagious virus that causes 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease, a respiratory infection. It is the cause of the ongoing 2019–20 Wuhan coronavirus outbreak,^[7] a global health emergency. Genomic sequencing has shown that it is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_novel_coronavirus

 

Quote

China's National Health Commission has given the virus a temporary official name – novel coronavirus pneumonia, or NCP.

https://www.unian.info/world/10865504-coronavirus-to-be-known-as-ncp-for-now-as-china-reports-86-new-deaths-media.html

 

 

[Canoe]

Disruptions continue

 

Retail, factories and education providers in China.

 

Factories and some retail around the world are affected.

 

Quote

Cuts in factory production across the country’s industrial heartland have also pushed down the price of oil from almost $70 for a barrel of Brent crude a month ago to $54 last week.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/09/uk-universities-in-china-face-shutdown-over-coronavirus