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corona virus

SansVarnic

Due to the nature of this topic, please keep cool heads and conversation On Topic.

Intentional Derailing, Political Rhetoric, or Arguing will result in removal of comments/replies and warnings issued.

 

The "No politics" rule will be enforced even harder. This will be last warning you get. If someone posts any political rhetoric (about parties, ideology, policy etc.), you will receive PM from moderator telling to step off the thread. As forum does not have functionality to do it better ways. If you continue to post ANYTHING after receiving PM, you will get warnings for not following staff instructions.

Posting news about what governments in your parts of world do in order to act on this crisis is fine, but will be looked case-by-case. (Updated 03/19/2020)

 

Remember the core values of this forum;

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  • Encourage the freedom of expression and exchange of information in a mature and responsible manner.
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ATTENTION: there is a covid 19 F@H event happening, you can find it HERE.

 

this is a good opportunity to help with research!

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4 hours ago, Mister Woof said:

I have a documented health anxiety disorder. The worst part about a health anxiety sufferer is they are constantly seeking certainty. I know that certainty isn't realistic in most normal situations, but it's a little easier to reassure yourself that you won't die from some random disease that has no indication of being active other than a muscle spasm that can be anything.

 

With coronavirus, there is nothing BUT uncertainty, and it is absolutely real.

 

So for health anxiety sufferers, it's like, exponential fear.

 

I can't imagine anyone living in Wuhan right now how they may feel. If they have health anxiety like I do, I can't even

I’ve got a small amount of experience with anxiety disorders.  There’s a minor trick for me that often (but not always) works.  YMMV but it’s what I’ve got so for whatever it’s worth I give it to you:

 

Anxiety is an adrenaline reaction.  Your body experiences the trigger and you flood with adrenaline.  It sucks.  Oh my gosh does it suck.  I can actually feel this “whoosh” as it happens.  I purely do not understand adrenaline junkies.  It’s an awful feeling.   There a thing about adrenaline though:

It’s very short acting.  Minutes.  The secret is to just wait it out.  When it happens to me I adopt the attitude of “well shit.  I’m going to be useless for the next five minutes” and I do breathing excercises till it goes away.  Straight up meditation stuff.  Circular breathing.  It’s kinda stupid, but here’s the weird thing:

 it works.

For me anyway.

Took a while to get it to work.  Months.  It finally did though.


Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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1 minute ago, Bombastinator said:

I’ve got a small amount of experience with anxiety disorders.  There’s a minor trick for me that often (but not always) works.  YMMV but it’s what I’ve got so for whatever it’s worth I give it to you:

 

Anxiety is an adrenaline reaction.  Your body experiences the trigger and you flood with adrenaline.  It sucks.  Oh my gosh does it suck.  I can actually feel this “whoosh” as it happens.  I purely do not understand adrenaline junkies.  It’s an awful feeling.   There a thing about adrenaline though:

It’s very short acting.  Minutes.  The secret is to just wait it out.  When it happens to me I adopt the attitude of “well shit.  I’m going to be useless for the next five minutes” and I do breathing excercises till it goes away.  Straight up meditation stuff.  Circular breathing.  It’s kinda stupid, but here’s the weird thing:

 it works.

For me anyway.

Took a while to get it to work.  Months.  It finally did though.

 

I was fine for a year after I determined I wasn't dying of cancer. I have since relapsed because of this coronavirus, though. ugh.


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5 minutes ago, Mister Woof said:

 

I was fine for a year after I determined I wasn't dying of cancer. I have since relapsed because of this coronavirus, though. ugh.

Is it a valid management to substitue another "concern" to think about that is less stressful to you than Wu Wong's Bat Won Ton Wuhan Wallop?

 

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1 hour ago, Canoe said:

Great!

Lets see some of that. Stop jumping at all sources as though they're equally valid or credible. Filter and compare outcomes at the different levels of filtration.

Go back and "Look at what they have numbers for/of. See how they fit together. Look at the numbers they release. ..." and see what you think compared to your posts that looked like knee-jerk posts.

I find your idea that you are in any position to teach me anything about data analysis highly amusing.

You've just lost all credibility in my eyes.

Using data only provided by one source because it's "official" only shows that you are restricting your source range to what is convenient, in no way does that reflect the situation irl.

"Dirty" data is still data, it all depends how you input it in your analysis and how you interpret it.

 

So if you're not able to aknowledge this very basic rule in data analysis... ?

 

Quote

But is that the best mechanism?

Would it allow for adequate patient monitoring?

And is the equipment available, let alone in quantity. Are there staff (capable of following safe protocols) and materials to keep it clean.

 

When you're dealing with the kinds of numbers they're dealing with, it's more appropriate to think like it's been a natural disaster and you have thousands of people to address, with specific resources. Military logistics is much more applicable. We should also be seeing 'what can we put in place right now, next week and two weeks from now - do it'. And given the numbers, they're likely looking out further than that.

A space like this, with so many beds is called a "mouroir" in french or a "deathtrap" in english.

Rows of beds one next to the other like in the photo, or the video, are not allowing for any kind of "monitoring".

There is not enough space around the beds for quick intervention. So it's not designed for that.

Should I go on?

 

Once again, thank you for "teaching" as if I was unable to think several steps ahead. I'm sure that providing graphs made from the "official" numbers must feel very satisfying in spreading the "truth".

 

Here is another part of the "truth" :

41mn+ raw video uncut.

 

and these two "controversial non-official" lies-spreading websites:
https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2020/02/04/wuhans_defiant_citizen_video_journalists_122269.html

https://chinachange.org/2020/02/03/going-around-coronavirus-stricken-wuhan-with-fang-bin-visiting-hospitals-and-being-visited-by-police-on-february-1-2020/

 

It's true, I don't understand any of the chinese languages...

 

As I've said already previously, what is really happening is a bit more complicated than the clean reassuring officially doctored numbers.

 

I particularly like this:

Quote

The police chastised him, he says, for taking images that reflect badly on China. “You're setting off an atomic bomb,” he quotes one of them telling him. “You're terrifying everybody.” When Fang protested that what he'd been saying was the truth, the policeman replied, “You're not allowed to say that. We have to speak in a single voice.”

 

I'm not taking anything at "face value", but when concomittant information repeat themselves then maybe there's something to be looked into. ?

Even though, it's not because you repeat the same thing enough times that something will become true (isn't that true, Donald?)

 

But denying that China is conducting a global operation of control of information that would be just... blinding and dumbing down oneself! ?

Nothing is black or white!

 

 

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1 hour ago, Mister Woof said:

 

I was fine for a year after I determined I wasn't dying of cancer. I have since relapsed because of this coronavirus, though. ugh.

That Shit does happen.  The really bad stuff is reinjury.  You have a thought an whoosh,  you keep thinking about it and there’s another whoosh.  They pile up and you wind up totally freaked.  This is where the straight up meditation is handy.   All that Buddhist “think about nothing” stuff?  That’s literally it.  Count your breaths.  Why? Because it’s the lowest level thing that keeps your mind occupied.  Get good at it and it becomes easy to lose count.  This is actually good.  Failure is constant.  The thing to remember is it’s a bit like dying in a game with no death penalty.  Power kill it.  Just keep on going back.


Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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38 minutes ago, oskar23 said:

It was posted a few pages back, thanks though!


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30 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

I find your idea that you are in any position to teach me anything about data analysis highly amusing.

You've just lost all credibility in my eyes.

Using data only provided by one source because it's "official" only shows that you are restricting your source range to what is convenient, in no way does that reflect the situation irl.

"Dirty" data is still data, it all depends how you input it in your analysis and how you interpret it.

So if you're not able to aknowledge this very basic rule in data analysis... ?

Is that what you thought I said.

Interesting.

 

30 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

A space like this, with so many beds is called a "mouroir" in french or a "deathtrap" in english.

Rows of beds one next to the other like in the photo, or the video, are not allowing for any kind of "monitoring".

There is not enough space around the beds for quick intervention. So it's not designed for that.

Should I go on?

Correct. That video you posted was very good info. It put the still of the beds in their proper light.

That layout is not for severe patients that require anything approaching advanced medical monitoring, nor intervention. Certainly not for severe Pt.s. So those beds are not for that purpose.

Please go on.

I get the feeling you're so close to nailing it. So close I can't figure out if you don't get it or if you can't say it.

 

30 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Once again, thank you for "teaching" as if I was unable to think several steps ahead. I'm sure that providing graphs made from the "official" numbers must feel very satisfying in spreading the "truth".

You're welcome. I can only go on what you post, not what you think.

I do find graphs satisfying. They make some parts easy to discern, and for me I can identify patterns easier. I can only work numbers well visually if it's a set and layout I've worked with for a bit. The graphs led me to notice a few things, which I then expanded the graphs to include, to explore, and then include more. Not very scientific, but I've got nothing of value to add by duplicating modelling, that, well, is most certainly beyond what I could model as I don't model in that area. But following those models as they evolve is interesting.

 

30 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Nothing unexpected nor new in this. I can't see a date of the article. Not that it matters, what it says of the situation there is old and already confirmed.

30 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

That was great to have the transcripts. The plight of the individuals is distressing...

However, those videos show scenes a lot less frantic, less crowded and far more organized than earlier video I've seen. But that was from days ago, so it makes sense that this newer footage shows more organization. Sad, nothing new, specifics backing several prior claims, nothing unexpected.

Except that it's amazing that he was released so soon, if at all.

30 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

It's true, I don't understand any of the chinese languages...

Same here. I can only watch for those that do know the language and can be trusted to say that the subtitles are correct.

30 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

I particularly like this:

I'm not taking anything at "face value", but when concomittant information repeat themselves then maybe there's something to be looked into. ?

Exactly. Like the noise on limited test kits, people being turned away, then lots of test kits delivered to hospitals, but their use being limited/rationed. And in short time that was substantiated. I posted that finding previously.

But until confirmed, noise should be weighed, and considered, not 'omg the sky is falling'.

 

30 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

As I've said already previously, what is really happening is a bit more complicated than the clean reassuring officially doctored numbers.

Yes. But 'China' can't change the numbers of the various models. Nor the people comparing those to what 'China' publishes. Nor those comparing the models to pieces leaked out from on-the-ground. Nor noticing when an 'on-the-ground' comes out following a model being published and has that exact number. Things that make you go hmmm. Similar to going back some days, when it was somewhat amusing to watch some variance come into the official data after the initial criticism that the data as too perfect: there's no way real life detection would match a modelled spread that perfectly.

 

30 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

But denying that China is conducting a global operation of control of information that would be just... blinding and dumbing down oneself!

You lost me here. Next you'll be telling me the sky is blue?

 

So given all that you've observed, read and know, you still don't see something more to

"Look at what they have numbers for/of. See how they fit together. Look at the numbers they release. ..."?

 

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7 hours ago, Canoe said:

Is that what you thought I said.

Interesting.

 

Spoiler

Correct. That video you posted was very good info. It put the still of the beds in their proper light.

That layout is not for severe patients that require anything approaching advanced medical monitoring, nor intervention. Certainly not for severe Pt.s. So those beds are not for that purpose.

Please go on.

I get the feeling you're so close to nailing it. So close I can't figure out if you don't get it or if you can't say it.

 

You're welcome. I can only go on what you post, not what you think.

I do find graphs satisfying. They make some parts easy to discern, and for me I can identify patterns easier. I can only work numbers well visually if it's a set and layout I've worked with for a bit. The graphs led me to notice a few things, which I then expanded the graphs to include, to explore, and then include more. Not very scientific, but I've got nothing of value to add by duplicating modelling, that, well, is most certainly beyond what I could model as I don't model in that area. But following those models as they evolve is interesting.

 

Nothing unexpected nor new in this. I can't see a date of the article. Not that it matters, what it says of the situation there is old and already confirmed.

That was great to have the transcripts. The plight of the individuals is distressing...

However, those videos show scenes a lot less frantic, less crowded and far more organized than earlier video I've seen. But that was from days ago, so it makes sense that this newer footage shows more organization. Sad, nothing new, specifics backing several prior claims, nothing unexpected.

Except that it's amazing that he was released so soon, if at all.

Same here. I can only watch for those that do know the language and can be trusted to say that the subtitles are correct.

Exactly. Like the noise on limited test kits, people being turned away, then lots of test kits delivered to hospitals, but their use being limited/rationed. And in short time that was substantiated. I posted that finding previously.

But until confirmed, noise should be weighed, and considered, not 'omg the sky is falling'.

 

Yes. But 'China' can't change the numbers of the various models. Nor the people comparing those to what 'China' publishes. Nor those comparing the models to pieces leaked out from on-the-ground. Nor noticing when an 'on-the-ground' comes out following a model being published and has that exact number. Things that make you go hmmm. Similar to going back some days, when it was somewhat amusing to watch some variance come into the official data after the initial criticism that the data as too perfect: there's no way real life detection would match a modelled spread that perfectly.

 

You lost me here. Next you'll be telling me the sky is blue?

 

So given all that you've observed, read and know, you still don't see something more to

"Look at what they have numbers for/of. See how they fit together. Look at the numbers they release. ..."?

 

As I've said, I don't need any kind of "schooling" from your part... Your insufferable suffisance is going to be your own demise, even more so when you are self-contradicting all on your own.

 

It's either "not good news", "old news", "nothing new there", bla bla bla... When on your side it's only "numbers from only one side from an official source which have weighed the value of the data"... When, obviously, they don't have the good numbers.

So please, just go on... ^o^

 

No one here is an "alarmist", simply saying to look at the big picture and not at the "all is well, don't worry!" people. But obviously you know it all about everything and... "all is well under the sun" (and yes! the sky is blue when it's not cloudy ? ).

 

 

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in other fluff: chinese air force cleared to perform at foreign airshow, while south korean air force pulls out for health safety reasons

 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/aerobatics-team-china-ba-yi-august-1st-airshow-wuhan-coronavirus-12398516

 

***

 

PSA for LTT Discord members: Avoid using the word "Corona" or "Coronavirus" for the moment. it's in their word filter as of now

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18 minutes ago, VegetableStu said:

PSA for LTT Discord members: Avoid using the word "Corona" or "Coronavirus" for the moment. it's in their word filter as of now

I got banned on the discord for posting trump memes.


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On 2/6/2020 at 1:57 PM, Cora_Lie said:

As I've said, I don't need any kind of "schooling" from your part... Your insufferable suffisance is going to be your own demise, even more so when you are self-contradicting all on your own.

 

It's either "not good news", "old news", "nothing new there", bla bla bla... When on your side it's only "numbers from only one side from an official source which have weighed the value of the data"... When, obviously, they don't have the good numbers.

So please, just go on... ^o^

 

No one here is an "alarmist", simply saying to look at the big picture and not at the "all is well, don't worry!" people. But obviously you know it all about everything and... "all is well under the sun" (and yes! the sky is blue when it's not cloudy ? ).

Oddly, in spite of your misinterpreting so much of what I said, and putting words in my mouth a number of times, for some reason I think you're the real deal.

 

And yes, what you've presented about the condition on the ground has largely been available days before this. The only new is the conference centre getting beds, and the details regarding the one new 'reporter' on the ground, hence how much more organized and less frantic it is on the sites he showed.

And there's no secret where the numbers for the main graph comes from. It's stated at its top. Those show what they show.

 

Still nothing from

"Look at what they have numbers for/of. See how they fit together. Look at the numbers they release. ..."?

 

***

Not good.
 
Quote
 
My op ed in ⁦@WSJ ⁩ - There now appear to be multiple nodes of sustained community transmission of #coronavirus outside China. It may be too late to avoid pandemic spread but we can still prevent outbreaks in U.S from turning into an American epidemic

It’s time to start testing patients with unexplained pneumonia, even if they haven’t traveled to China.

With the large gap between the start of 2019-nCoV and the weeks of people moving around China and around the globe, they're expecting clusters to turn up from asymptomatic carriers that arrived prior to the restrictions put in place.
 
(There's news on the purpose of all those beds, but I have to get off to a meeting.)
 
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1 hour ago, Canoe said:
With the large gap between the start of 2019-nCoV and the weeks of people moving around China and around the globe, they're expecting clusters to turn up from asymptomatic carriers that arrived prior to the restrictions put in place.

Old news, already talked about it yesterday...

 

 

On the other hand, potentialy good news regarding a vaccine. In yesterday's news:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-significant-breakthrough-in-race-for-vaccine-made-by-uk-scientists-11926469

 

Another potential vaccine solution can be find here:

But what worries me is that it's a DNA vaccine. Which means $$$$!

 

And the latest update from the WHO regarding the Coronavirus Outbreak:

 

Edited by Cora_Lie
Added link to the latest WHO update
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Not sure if that was posted, there's a map to track the confirmed cases ;

 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


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7 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

Not sure if that was posted, there's a map to track the confirmed cases ;

 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

That’s some obnoxiously useless graphing.  They graphed the data using circle area, which cover the entire nations they quantify.  Should have been done with a different metric. 


Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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Some of the evacuees are being tested at the local hospitals in my area. It's come to the point where I'm being asked on medical paperwork if I have symptoms of the coronavirus while I'm working on an appointment for medical tests required for my new job. ?


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2 hours ago, Bombastinator said:

That’s some obnoxiously useless graphing.  They graphed the data using circle area, which cover the entire nations they quantify.  Should have been done with a different metric. 

yeah admittedly they should have made the area of the circle represent the number of cases, not the diameter ._.

 

EDIT: at least that's what i'm thinking might be going on

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14 minutes ago, Andreas Lilja said:

I know a few of these people in real life, most of them are dumber than dog shit.  I wish I was exaggerating for comic effect.


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54 minutes ago, VegetableStu said:

yeah admittedly they should have made the area of the circle represent the number of cases, not the diameter ._.

 

EDIT: at least that's what i'm thinking might be going on

Even that would have been stupid. Not sure.  Maybe color, maybe a bar. The circles more or less obscure everything though.


Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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On 2/7/2020 at 2:19 AM, Bombastinator said:

Even that would have been stupid. Not sure.  Maybe color, maybe a bar. The circles more or less obscure everything though.

yeah a two-tone gradient (probably dynamic scaling according to the area with the highest count) might help, although with hubei having 71.73% of the count I'm not sure if the resolution on the lower end of the list would be visible ,_,

 

definitely not for shading the entire country/city though, that just visually spreads the 1-5 cases over a stupid large area of the country where not many are confirmed cases

 

not sure if i can edit the page to test my theory of them using diameter instead of area. gonna check the page source to find out

 

EDIT: wow they're using a dynamic SVG o_o that's smart.

that being said, I think they're plotting the numbers against a curve before drawing the circle, because the numbers doesn't seem to match... (and doing by area might actually make the largest circle bigger relative to the rest)

 

***

 

meanwhile on youtube ( /)_(\

EDIT: meanwhile at Canon

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https://www.canonrumors.com/the-cfexpress-card-reader-included-with-the-canon-eos-1d-x-mark-iii-may-be-delayed-due-to-the-coronavirus-outbreak/

We have received a report out of Germany that the CFexpress card reader that is to be included with the Canon EOS-1D X Mark III is going to be delayed due to the coronavirus outbreak. The factory that makes the card reader is based in China and from this report, it has been closed down.

 

 

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On 2/7/2020 at 3:39 AM, VegetableStu said:

meanwhile on youtube ( /)_(\

 

Tried clicking on your links but nothing happened.

Edited by LogicalDrm

Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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