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corona virus

Letgomyleghoe
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ATTENTION: there is a covid 19 F@H event happening, you can find it HERE.

 

this is a good opportunity to help with research!

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7 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

Not sure if that was posted, there's a map to track the confirmed cases ;

 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

That’s some obnoxiously useless graphing.  They graphed the data using circle area, which cover the entire nations they quantify.  Should have been done with a different metric. 

Not a pro, not even very good.  I’m just old and have time currently.  Assuming I know a lot about computers can be a mistake.

 

Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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Some of the evacuees are being tested at the local hospitals in my area. It's come to the point where I'm being asked on medical paperwork if I have symptoms of the coronavirus while I'm working on an appointment for medical tests required for my new job. ?

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14 minutes ago, Andreas Lilja said:

I know a few of these people in real life, most of them are dumber than dog shit.  I wish I was exaggerating for comic effect.

Grammar and spelling is not indicative of intelligence/knowledge.  Not having the same opinion does not always mean lack of understanding.  

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54 minutes ago, VegetableStu said:

yeah admittedly they should have made the area of the circle represent the number of cases, not the diameter ._.

 

EDIT: at least that's what i'm thinking might be going on

Even that would have been stupid. Not sure.  Maybe color, maybe a bar. The circles more or less obscure everything though.

Not a pro, not even very good.  I’m just old and have time currently.  Assuming I know a lot about computers can be a mistake.

 

Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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On 2/7/2020 at 3:39 AM, VegetableStu said:

meanwhile on youtube ( /)_(\

 

Tried clicking on your links but nothing happened.

Edited by LogicalDrm

Not a pro, not even very good.  I’m just old and have time currently.  Assuming I know a lot about computers can be a mistake.

 

Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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Hum.... you did notice that you can zoom in and out of the map, didn't you ? ;-)

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On 2/6/2020 at 5:13 PM, Cora_Lie said:

Old news, already talked about it yesterday..

Sorry, I missed where someone mentioned Gottlieb's opinion/piece on that.

 

On 2/7/2020 at 2:40 AM, VegetableStu said:

... EDIT: wow they're using a dynamic SVG o_o that's smart.

that being said, I think they're plotting the numbers against a curve before drawing the circle, because the numbers doesn't seem to match... (and doing by area might actually make the largest circle bigger relative to the rest)

It's in flux. Been largely stable the past 24 hours, but prior to that there could be several updates a day. A few times, a number within an hour. It's come a long way from when they first put it up.

 

***
 

Spoiler


431175278_2019-nCoVgraphWorldCasesConfirmedSuspected-2020-02-06.thumb.png.85afec240db7bd4797963e76780da603.png

 

 

1558106591_2019-nCoVgraphWorldCasesConfirmedSuspected-SARS-2020-02-06.thumb.png.28ff3b2198cb0eef44f805bbb427b975.png

 

 

606052017_2019-nCoVgraphNewConfirmedstacked2020-02-06.thumb.png.082a4b6ed2d5151292eb707a7fcb6400.png1869853708_2019-nCoVgraphNewConfirmed2020-02-06.thumb.png.438c9a82de52a71fbc29794d191df6d6.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

1048126544_2019-nCoVgraphDeathsRecovered2020-02-06.thumb.png.5aeef2d41ce0367c120a6019be01b288.png


 

 

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Rates appear to be steady but not dropping.  I suspect this is going to go on for a while.  That weird hump in suspected cases looks like a data anomaly.

Not a pro, not even very good.  I’m just old and have time currently.  Assuming I know a lot about computers can be a mistake.

 

Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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Out of München (Deutschland)

 

Quote

We’re hearing here that anyone who works at Webasto and all members of their families are being ostracized. The children cannot go to school or to day care. The parents can’t go shopping; they aren’t allowed into stores. Stockdorf (location of Webasto headquarters) is a very small town. Everyone knows everyone else. And anyone who is, or looks, Chinese can expect to be discriminated against. A mass hysteria has hit and people are getting upset. And all this is happening before the disease even has an official name.

 

The actions I described are not in any way officially sanctioned here. I have not heard of anything happening at high level. No government at any level has initiated such actions. It appears to be “grass roots” action, and soon the hysteria will die down. The officials are emphasizing that the virus is not all that dangerous. The normal flu is worse. But some of the local “newspapers” are creating a certain amount of panic by making people believe that things are worse than they are. That’s how they sell newspapers.

In other news, some factories in ASEAN are already shutting down or scheduled a shutdown, due to lack of production materials from China. 

 

 

 

On 2/7/2020 at 4:57 AM, Bombastinator said:

Rates appear to be steady but not dropping.  I suspect this is going to go on for a while.  That weird hump in suspected cases looks like a data anomaly.

I assumed a data entry or other error on my part. I checked the file, and the charts are getting the values that I recorded ( 23,214, then the next day 23,260 - so close on the scale). It looks less-harsh/more-believable on the top graph.

 

It's like something happened that day to keep those with more mild symptoms from going to the hospitals.

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The live update news page from the New York Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html

Some very interesting informations and the title is quite informative too : "Wuhan Rounds Up the Infected as the Death Toll Climbs Again"

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Nationwide, more than 70 new deaths and 3,100 new cases emerged in the previous 24 hours, the national health authorities said Friday morning.

Among the 70 new deaths, 69 are from Hubei. Which is a good and a bad news at the same time.

Good as it's centered in Hubei. Bad because it's a really high number...

 

Among the news update the part with the new "hospitals" prepped by the government:

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A senior Chinese official has ordered the authorities in the city of Wuhan to immediately round up all residents who have been infected with the coronavirus and place them in isolation, quarantine or designated hospitals.

Sun Chunlan, a vice premier tasked with leading the central government’s response to the outbreak that is centered in Wuhan, said city investigators should go to each home to check the temperatures of every resident and interview infected patients’ close contacts.

“Set up a 24-hour duty system. During these wartime conditions, there must be no deserters, or they will be nailed to the pillar of historical shame forever,” Ms. Sun said.

The city’s authorities have raced to meet these instructions by setting up makeshift mass quarantine shelters this week. The shelters are meant for coronavirus patients with milder symptoms, the government has said. But concerns are growing about whether the centers, which will house thousands of people in large spaces, will be able to provide even basic care to patients and protect against the risk of further infection.

And more importantly:

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According to a widely shared post on Weibo, a popular social media site, “conditions were very poor” at an exhibition center that had been converted into a quarantine facility. There were power failures and electric blankets could not be turned on, the user wrote, citing a relative who had been taken there, saying that people had to “shiver in their sleep.”

There was also a staff shortage, the post said, where “doctors and nurses were not seen to be taking note of symptoms and distributing medicine,” and oxygen devices were “seriously lacking.”

 

I'm starting to read more and more in the economic newspaper and ti hear on the economic channels that this is going to be an eye-opener and it will have lasting consequences on the global economic distribution. Because the economic impact is starting to show now in the rest of the world (shortage of pieces, shortage of electronics) as many of your small pieces are build/assembled in China.

The "all the eggs in the same basket" phenomenon.

 

 

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Seeing more reports like one I read late last night.

  • That those beds in the conference centre and other places, aren't for treatment/care, but are to start quarantining cases that previously were self-quarantined at home, due to home quarantine not being as effective at decreasing transmission as they'd hoped or need. 
  • Hints that they're for those with mild symptoms, but that's been non-commital and just when referring to a specific single facility.
  • I haven't seen anything definitive about what level of pt. they'll be able to house and where.
  • This includes whole Wuhan hotels requisitioned by the government "to hold suspected coronavirus patients".
    • Should be easier to setup like hospital rooms, where they need to provide isolation and care?
    • But they're being told it's for "suspected", which means those with symptoms who went to a hospital, were assessed as having as Mild 2019-nCoV symptoms, untested as Mild has no clinical need of test for Pt. care, sent home for self quarantine.
  • One report seemed a lot more specific, but wasn't around this morning.

Suspected and Confirmed

For all of China, CNHC lists

  • 31,368 Confirmed cases, with 28,985 cases under isolation and medical care (4,281 Severe).
  • 26,359 Suspected (presented with Mild 2019-nCoV symptoms)
  • So 28,985 & 26,359, for 55,344 2019-nCoV carriers.
  • Plus another 186,045 exposed that remain under medical observation.

 

***

 

lol

The official notice info was posted while I was typing out the rumours...

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Is there anything a person in middle America can do to help at all?

Not a pro, not even very good.  I’m just old and have time currently.  Assuming I know a lot about computers can be a mistake.

 

Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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And another "news" which if not so stupidily dramatic would be laughable:

 

Quote

Chinese military news agency discloses 2019-nCoV was product of lab: Guo Wengui

China critic reveals Xilu news network said Wuhan coronavirus engineered by US

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — As conspiracies about the origin of the Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) surface in recent weeks, exiled Chinese businessman Guo Wengui (郭文貴) said on Tuesday (Feb. 4) that Chinese military news network Xilu claimed the virus was engineered by the United States, which is strangely at odds with what Chinese health authorities have said.

Guo called Xilu the Chinese version of the Pentagon's news network and a mouthpiece for China's People's Liberation Army. It published an article on Jan. 21 denying a statement by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) regarding animal-to-human transmissions, instead claiming that "four critical spike proteins" have been replaced in a SARS coronavirus to create a bioweapon-level virus capable of attacking certain groups of people.

Guo said Xilu was trying to blame the U.S. for the outbreak caused by the man-made virus, Cmedia reported.

Guo shows screenshot of Xilu publication claiming virus is impossible to happen via natural mutation in a short period of time

On Jan. 31, Republican Senator Tom Cotton suggested in a hearing that Chinese officials had misled the public about the origins of the novel coronavirus, saying it may come from a "superlaboratory" in Wuhan. China's deployment of a biological warfare expert in Wuhan to combat the outbreak has fueled the rumor mill.

Meanwhile, this has put Chinese virologist and coronavirus researcher Shi Zhengli (石正麗) in an unwanted media spotlight thanks to her 2018 research on bat coronaviruses, which were found to have shared a similar DNA sequence with 2019-nCoV. Some believe that the virus might have been released from the lab in Wuhan.

However, renowned Taiwanese-American professor Ching Lin on Saturday (Feb. 1) refuted the "bioweapon" allegation, saying the aforementioned "four critical spike proteins" are actually four amino acids and that their replacement is not as "critical" as the Xilu had claimed.

Lin also cast doubt on the credibility of the paper (Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag) being cited in the conspiracy theories. He first suggested that the platform bioRxiv, on which the paper was published, is untrustworthy as most of the literature it posts does not undergo peer review.

He continued to say that the four insertions in the spike glycoproteins that Indian authors described as unique to the 2019-nCoV are not unusual in the results for pBLAST (an algorithm for comparing primary biological sequence information).

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871486

The chinese conspiration theorists... ?‍♀️

 

***

On 2/7/2020 at 6:03 AM, Bombastinator said:

Is there anything a person in middle America can do to help at all?

Maybe try contacting the nearest Red Cross Chapter from your living place?

 

***

 

I LIKE this chart!

Quote

Showing 57 of 57 genomes sampled between Dec 2019 and Jan 2020.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

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Panic Mode enabled.

 

Best Solution:

 

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/06/we-dont-leave-our-rooms-russians-quarantined-in-siberia-take-to-instagram

 

Quote
  • In a forest in Siberia, more than 140 Russians and others evacuated from Wuhan, the centre of the coronavirus outbreak, have been confined to a sanatorium patrolled by members of Russia’s National Guard instructed to let no one enter or exit.
  • In blogposts, some thanked the Russian government for their evacuation, while others asked why they had been transported to the middle of Siberia, roomed in groups of two or three, and relieved of all their personal belongings.
  • criticism from locals angry that the quarantine had been established in their region.

 

Quite the time on the cruise ship that's quarantined in Japan. 41 (or another 41?) infected.

I don't think they realize how bad it will get if a regular flu runs through them too.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/06/coronavirus-cruise-ship-tokyo-diamond-princess-life-passengers

Quote
  • “We’re no longer on a cruise,” he said on Thursday. “All of the luxury of having a steward come into the cabin to make the bed and put chocolates on the pillow, change the towels and facecloths and clean the bathroom – those days are gone. It just ain’t happening.”
  • (Interior cabins have no windows) On Thursday evening, just two days into at least a fortnight of quarantine, they were told they would be allowed on the open deck for 90 minutes under the supervision of quarantine officers. They must stay one metre apart from each other and not make physical contact or form groups.

 

***

 

This has data from earlier on the 6th, not the final numbers for the day.

But it gives some idea of the distribution outside of mainland China.

 

667916875_2019-nCoVgraphConfirmedCasesOutsideMainlandChina-2020-02-06.thumb.png.063d0df8970deb69c017075ffbae6c1b.png

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Desktop: 7800x3d @ stock, 64gb ddr4 @ 6000, 3080Ti, x670 Asus Strix

 

Laptop: Dell G3 15 - i7-8750h @ stock, 16gb ddr4 @ 2666, 1050Ti 

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A scientific article published in The Lancet on January 31st and updated on February 4th about actual and predictive evolution of the coronavirus epidemy.

Published by 3 researchers from Hong Kong University and the HK branch of CDC...

 

https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736(20)30260-9

 

I've read this study a few days ago, but was waiting for some eventual update/modification/cancelation as that sometimes happens.

Interesting informations in it.

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22 hours ago, mr moose said:

I know a few of these people in real life, most of them are dumber than dog shit.  I wish I was exaggerating for comic effect.

What's sadder is that they're not rarely uneducated. 

Desktop: 7800x3d @ stock, 64gb ddr4 @ 6000, 3080Ti, x670 Asus Strix

 

Laptop: Dell G3 15 - i7-8750h @ stock, 16gb ddr4 @ 2666, 1050Ti 

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1 minute ago, Andreas Lilja said:

What's sadder is that they're not rarely uneducated. 

They just choose which people they want to be educated by.

Grammar and spelling is not indicative of intelligence/knowledge.  Not having the same opinion does not always mean lack of understanding.  

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On 2/7/2020 at 12:37 PM, Cora_Lie said:

A scientific article published in The Lancet on January 31st and updated on February 4th about actual and predictive evolution of the coronavirus epidemy.

Published by 3 researchers from Hong Kong University and the HK branch of CDC...

 

https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736(20)30260-9

 

I've read this study a few days ago, but was waiting for some eventual update/modification/cancelation as that sometimes happens.

Interesting informations in it.

When that came out (Jan 31st), various epidemiologistsits were treating its numbers as middle of the road among the predictive models. It's graphics got passed around a lot. It's 75,000 baseline was ranging from 30,000 to 150,000 in other models, and I think I saw 170k in one.

 

***

 

I haven't got full numbers for the day. And a few provinces seem to be missing new Confirmed Cases. Else they decided they'd better not have many, if any, new Confirmed cases unless they wanted to join Wuhan in its quarantine compliance.

 

The Recovered in HuBei went up by over half, to 298 daily. Else where it was down a bit, but the daily total still increased by 473 Recovered, and that brings the total recovered is above 2,000.

 

Out today:

Quote

Guangzhou City (population: 14 M) locked down. All residential blocks be isolated from each other. So far around 400 million people locked down in China.

But I can do these graphs now, and update them if the low counts get updated...

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I know... that's why I waited for so long before putting it here...

Most of the time this kind of article will either be confirmed, modified or retired.

 

This one has been modified/updated 5 days after 1st being published, which in scientific publication means it has been approved and upgraded. Hence  it has gained in credibility.

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