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corona virus

SansVarnic

Due to the nature of this topic, please keep cool heads and conversation On Topic.

Intentional Derailing, Political Rhetoric, or Arguing will result in removal of comments/replies and warnings issued.

 

The "No politics" rule will be enforced even harder. This will be last warning you get. If someone posts any political rhetoric (about parties, ideology, policy etc.), you will receive PM from moderator telling to step off the thread. As forum does not have functionality to do it better ways. If you continue to post ANYTHING after receiving PM, you will get warnings for not following staff instructions.

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ATTENTION: there is a covid 19 F@H event happening, you can find it HERE.

 

this is a good opportunity to help with research!

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10 minutes ago, williamcll said:

I've seen that post on twitter more than a week ago

 

image.thumb.png.e7d5478687ca64651154bff6e12fd8ab.png

 

Has anyone given an explanation for it? How come nobody has reported on it until now?

 

Is it not credible? I am curious to the response.

 

Edit: just looked at the small print.

 

Kinda fucked up, man. I'm having a breakdown here.


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Which culture has “better” hygiene is irrelevant I think.  I remember an example given once about how one group considered the western practice of hankercheifs to be foul.  What would a person blow their nose and then save it when the correct practice was to wipe it on a tree and be rid of the stuff.  Enculturation is enculturation.  I suspect serious holes are going to be found in American hygiene enculturation for this one as well.  Screw “superior”.
 

what we have now is a communicable, rapidly mutating, and currently (luckily) only opportunistically killing disease with a long and invisible infectious period that has skipped over the containment barrier.  It could be worse, it could be better, but it’s there and it’s out. Arguing about fault does little.  It doesn’t matter where it came from or why anymore.

 

Here are some questions I still have:


-Can the spread be slowed?
Stopping it is apparently a ship that has sailed.  -What is the mutation rate?

-How much does infection and recovery prevent reinfection?

-Does infection and recovery reduce/eliminate the previously infected as a vector? 
-can vaccination improve survivability? (This one is a bit academic as vaccination isn’t even a possibility yet)

 

My personal hope is to avoid infection until more is known about the thing.  IF infection by a dead or crippled strain  (vaccination) will help I’ll do it.  I’ll take an unpleasant week of illness to avoid death.

Might not work that way though.

Even if we stop it dead cold (which I understand according to experts Is not likely) it would still pop up again.  Barriers are temporary, and they weaken the ability of that behind the barrier to resist when the wall does breach.  Influenza is amongst us.  Sounds like corona is going to be too.


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1 minute ago, Mister Woof said:

Has anyone given an explanation for it? How come nobody has reported on it until now?

 

Is it not credible? I am curious to the response.

IMO, there's nothing to it since it could be issues with the website, the people in charge of maintaining it, or something similar. It's alarmist to say those are the real numbers, but then, I also don't trust the Chinese gov numbers, there's lots of testimony showing they're not screening everyone (either from actual lack of test kit, or to keep the numbers low, that's not sure).


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8 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

IMO, there's nothing to it since it could be issues with the website, the people in charge of maintaining it, or something similar. It's alarmist to say those are the real numbers, but then, I also don't trust the Chinese gov numbers, there's lots of testimony showing they're not screening everyone (either from actual lack of test kit, or to keep the numbers low, that's not sure).

I have a documented health anxiety disorder. The worst part about a health anxiety sufferer is they are constantly seeking certainty. I know that certainty isn't realistic in most normal situations, but it's a little easier to reassure yourself that you won't die from some random disease that has no indication of being active other than a muscle spasm that can be anything.

 

With coronavirus, there is nothing BUT uncertainty, and it is absolutely real.

 

So for health anxiety sufferers, it's like, exponential fear.

 

I can't imagine anyone living in Wuhan right now how they may feel. If they have health anxiety like I do, I can't even


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On 2/5/2020 at 9:44 PM, Bombastinator said:

*snip *

Screw “superior”.

* snip *

My reply wasn't targeted at the current issue (coronavirus), I'm not there, and haven't been in the Hubei province, so I wouldn't even dare saying the current issue has anything to do with the Chinese relation to food hygiene in their kitchen.

 

I was merely suggesting that @Canoe getting sick after visiting a small Chinese restaurant might be related to their food hygiene (notice I didn't put any adjectives on that "food hygiene" ;) ). And like I said, this was based on my PERSONAL experience, from having lived in China and having first hand experience with those issues (at home, in restaurants here, and with family and friends in China).

 

I never said WE (or I) was superior and it wasn't the intention. Sorry if that wasn't clear and if it was seen as such.

 

On 2/5/2020 at 9:53 PM, Mister Woof said:

I have a documented health anxiety disorder

*snip*

Ah! ok, I get why you're freaking out then! :(

 

Like I previously said, quarantine yourself as much as possible, equip yourself with pocket disinfectant and always have spare masks with you when you go out. But then, I guess you're probably doing all that! (at least I hope!)

 

***

 

Apple might have to delay it's next iPhone because of the factories shutdown ;

https://www.ft.com/content/22345198-47e6-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

 

 

Bosch and other car parts factories are also closed ;

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-global-economic-impact-of-wuhan-novel-coronavirus/

 

 

It's touching a LOT of big players in different part of the economy. Just the cost of all those closed factories alone, is going to be in the Billions, for sure. :( 


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1 hour ago, williamcll said:

I've seen that post on twitter more than a week ago

 

image.thumb.png.e7d5478687ca64651154bff6e12fd8ab.png

 

I'm not the "gullible" kind, I'm all about numbers, stats and logic.

Wuhan: Population --> 11.08 millions (2018)

Hubei: Population --> 58.5 millions (2015) - Nr sick 16,678 (as of today) and 479 death since 1 month

China: Population --> 1.428 billion (2017) - Nr sick 24,405 (as of today)

 

Question : Do you really think that China (the country which is  monitoring everything about everyone...) would have paralysed it's entire country, paralysed it's entire economy ( 12.24 trillions USD (2017) ), forcibly closed a majority of it's plants, forbidden intercities  travel, locked people into their homes with only 1 person allowed per familly to get out every 2 days to fetch some groceries for a mere 24,405 (0,024 million people) sick?

 

The numbers simply don't make sense...  That's all I'm saying.

 

 

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On 2/5/2020 at 10:51 PM, Cora_Lie said:

... for a mere 24,405 (0,024 million people) sick?

The numbers simply don't make sense...  That's all I'm saying.

You aren't looking at all of the numbers.

  • Confirmed: 24,503
  • Suspected: 23,112
  • Under medical observation: 185,555

Add them up.

233,170

That doesn't include all of the ones released from under medical observation.

Nor the 252,154 close contacts that have been followed-up.

 

 

On 2/5/2020 at 8:45 PM, Cora_Lie said:

By the way Just read in french newspaper :

More than 10,000 beds are being prepped to get some sick people on sports hall and hangars in Wuhei. Plus 3 new major cities are in quarantine.

 

 

 

From the picture they obviously don't care at all about cross contamination. Not good auspices...

WHO has now categorised it it as multiple sites outbreak disease...

 

Given the numbers infected, with severe listed as 3,219 cases, they're dealing with 12 Pt.s in a typical hospital setting. Given the wide range of symptoms, combinations, etc., when you have to effectively warehouse Pt.s, it's only practical to group them according to their issues, or to which strain they're infected with, to reduce cross contamination. Given the numbers, would you expect each gets their own room with filtered positive pressure air?

 

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23 minutes ago, Canoe said:

You aren't looking at all of the numbers.

  • Confirmed: 24,503
  • Suspected: 23,112
  • Under medical observation: 185,555

I respectfully disagree ?

One will not base such decisions based on "under medical surveillance".

Quote

Add them up.

233,170

That doesn't include all of the ones released from under medical observation.

If they have been released from observation, they, logically, are not sick, don't have symptoms and are not a sanitary risk. Or maybe I misunderstand the meaning od "under medical surveillance"?

Quote

Nor the 252,154 close contacts that have been followed-up.

I'm simply saying the numbers don't add up and don't make sense. We are talking about China here. A country which doesn't want to lose face, which likes to be in control and has a history of information control, of health cover-ups (scandal of HIV cross contamination of tens of thousands of people in the countryside from obligatory blood donations, among many others), too many testimonies of individuals, doctors and nurses showing that the stats are doctored:
patients with symptoms, not tested, sent home, hence not in stats

deaths declared with other reasons.

 

 

I don't trust the official numbers provided by the Chinese State.

You are free to disagree with me. ^o^

 

16 minutes ago, Canoe said:

Given the numbers, would you expect each gets their own room with filtered positive pressure air?

No, but you could easily put plastic curtains around each bed to isolate each patient, and put negative pressure to prevent air circulation and put UV lights in place to kill germs.

The patients have accute pulmonary problems, fever, and so on. They are immuno-depressed. In such conditions it is easy to catch something else from other sick people in the same hangar. And in such conditions (thousands of sick people in the same space) that is as dangerous - and even deadly - than the main disease.

This is ominous. That's all I'm saying.

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On 2/6/2020 at 12:51 AM, Cora_Lie said:
Spoiler

 

I respectfully disagree ?

One will not base such decisions based on "under medical surveillance".

If they have been released from observation, they, logically, are not sick, don't have symptoms and are not a sanitary risk. Or maybe I misunderstand the meaning od "under medical surveillance"?

I'm simply saying the numbers don't add up and don't make sense. We are talking about China here. A country which doesn't want to lose face, which likes to be in control and has a history of information control, of health cover-ups (scandal of HIV cross contamination of tens of thousands of people in the countryside from obligatory blood donations, among many others), too many testimonies of individuals, doctors and nurses showing that the stats are doctored:
patients with symptoms, not tested, sent home, hence not in stats

deaths declared with other reasons.

 

 

I don't trust the official numbers provided by the Chinese State.

You are free to disagree with me. ^o^

 

No, but you could easily put plastic curtains around each bed to isolate each patient, and put negative pressure to prevent air circulation and put UV lights in place to kill germs.

The patients have accute pulmonary problems, fever, and so on. They are immuno-depressed. In such conditions it is easy to catch something else from other sick people in the same hangar. And in such conditions (thousands of sick people in the same space) that is as dangerous - and even deadly - than the main disease.

This is ominous. That's all I'm saying.

 

 

My take home from all of this:


it’s bad.  Possibly not as bad as some are saying and possibly more bad than some others are saying.

 

Various entities with axes to grind are using it as justification to grind them, creating BS in both directions.  Some because hysteria is useful to them and they don’t care who gets hurt, and others because containment is disadvantageous, and they don’t care who gets hurt.

 

Containment is proving difficult for various reasons.  Success has been limited.  Which is a problem because unless containment is 100% it will continue to grow.
 

Data is not always reliable. 

Behavior of emergency personnel is not always reliable especially in China.

 

Things are still moving quickly.

 

Edited by LogicalDrm

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On 2/6/2020 at 12:51 AM, Cora_Lie said:
Spoiler

 

I respectfully disagree ?

One will not base such decisions based on "under medical surveillance".

If they have been released from observation, they, logically, are not sick, don't have symptoms and are not a sanitary risk.

I'm simply saying the numbers don't add up and don't make sense. We are talking about China here. A country which doesn't want to lose face, which likes to be in control and has a history of information control, of health cover-ups (scandal of HIV cross contamination of tens of thousands of people in the countryside from obligatory blood donations, among many others), too many testimonies of individuals, doctors and nurses showing that the stats are doctored:
patients with symptoms, not tested, sent home, hence not in stats

deaths declared with other reasons.

I don't trust the official numbers provided by the Chinese State.

You are free to disagree with me. ^o^

 

No, but you could easily put plastic curtains around each bed to isolate each patient, and put negative pressure to prevent air circulation and put UV lights in place to kill germs.

The patients have accute pulmonary problems, fever, and so on. They are immuno-depressed. In such conditions it is easy to catch something else from other sick people in the same hangar. And in such conditions (thousands of sick people in the same space) that is as dangerous - and even deadly - than the main disease.

This is ominous. That's all I'm saying.

 

 

You need to learn to work with levels of abstraction. You're tripping up on little trees and tiny shrubs. You don't believe their numbers. Look at what they have numbers for/of. See how they fit together. Look at the numbers they release. ...

You also have to classify what "info" does get out through informal channels. For one, is the person actually there and are they likely to be accurately informed. Are they making stuff up for political purposes, or even simply more social media hits. Look at some of what was "leaking", and confirmed later, and with the information that explains why something was taking place; without the full explanation and context, the original 'leak' looks like someone really didn't know, or lied, intentionally made Misinformation, and in a few cases, an Op..

Look at the source of all news reports. Consider the source. Find the alleged medical paper that's behind what the reporter thought they understood, or twisted into ammo to sell news.

 

On 2/6/2020 at 12:51 AM, Cora_Lie said:

The patients have accute pulmonary problems, fever, and so on. They are immuno-depressed. In such conditions it is easy to catch something else from other sick people in the same hangar. And in such conditions (thousands of sick people in the same space) that is as dangerous - and even deadly - than the main disease.

This is ominous. That's all I'm saying.

This is why they'll move as many as they can into the new hospital so they're removed from regular hospital patients, so there's mutually no cross contamination between them. That's why they have to classify them, so they can further be grouped for treatment in the new hospital.

 

On 2/6/2020 at 12:51 AM, Cora_Lie said:

No, but you could easily put plastic curtains around each bed to isolate each patient, and put negative pressure to prevent air circulation and put UV lights in place to kill germs.

My god. Do you have any idea how much work and materials would be needed to keep such curtains & supports free from causing Transmission?

And negative pressure for each bed area? Vent it outside? Filter it in circulation? Biohazard filters?

Face masks are very effective to prevent the infected from expelling droplets. Direct Contact is minimized as is Secondary Transmission. Simplest to clean/disinfect. Compliance and Pt. condition can be more efficiently scanned. They're not dealing with 12 to 24 Pt.s. Look at those numbers. Compare them to the photo of the beds. Now scale the space and beds to match the numbers.

 

On 2/6/2020 at 12:51 AM, Cora_Lie said:

This is ominous. That's all I'm saying.

Over in China it is. For the numbers known/released, it's a huge undertaking.

Elsewhere?

A few places close to there have a few dozen to deal with.

So far, it has to be reassessed all the time, incoming are being screened or quarantined as appropriate.

We're still early on the number of resolved cases, but apart from any real surprises there, the best things about this it's got people taking precautions that will also protect them from the various flu clusters that are occurring around the world right now. It's flu season. People should have already been following appropriate cleaning of their hands and Frequent Touch Surfaces, etc..

 

 

On 2/6/2020 at 1:20 AM, Bombastinator said:

... Which is a problem because unless containment is 100% it will continue to grow. ...

No. It just has to be contained enough to keep R0 below 1.

But we don't know yet what's required to get there.

So far, we're way below that. But there was several weeks where carriers where moving around and even around the world. So you have to jump on any cases and clusters.

 

See it for what it is and what it could become.

The numbers in China are far worse then the numbers elsewhere. Look at the Recovered rates published from China vs. those in other areas.

 

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Watch the video until 1:11 (just one minute long)

There's nothing more to add... :-S 

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17 minutes ago, Canoe said:

No. It just has to be contained enough to keep R0 below 1.

But we don't know yet what's required to get there.

So far, we're way below that. But there was several weeks where carriers where moving around and even around the world. So you have to jump on any cases and clusters.

 

See it for what it is and what it could become.

The numbers in China are far worse then the numbers elsewhere. Look at the Recovered rates published from China vs. those in other areas.

 

The term R0 led me to this, which left me more confused https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

 

According to my understanding of what I read (which I’m pretty sure is inperfect) R0 <1 means the disease will die out.  You seem to be saying that this is already under control?  That R0 is below 1 and has been for some time?  There was a whole section on limitations of the term which I didn’t understand well, which mentioned use of differential equations, which was a section of math I was never allowed to learn. (My goodness.  Apparently I’m still angry about that.  It’s been what? 30 years?)


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10 minutes ago, Canoe said:

You need to learn to work with levels of abstraction. You're tripping up on little trees and tiny shrubs. You don't believe their numbers. Look at what they have numbers for/of. See how they fit together. Look at the numbers they release. ...

You also have to classify what "info" does get out through informal channels. For one, is the person actually there and are they likely to be accurately informed. Are they making stuff up for political purposes, or even simply more social media hits. Look at some of what was "leaking", and confirmed later, and with the information that explains why something was taking place; without the full explanation and context, the original 'leak' looks like someone really didn't know, or lied, intentionally made Misinformation, and in a few cases, an Op..

Look at the source of all news reports. Consider the source. Find the alleged medical paper that's behind what the reporter thought they understood, or twisted into ammo to sell news.

WOW! O_o  You don't know who I am, what my job is for the past XX years and how good I am at it. I won't ask you to "trust" me as you have no reason to.

Just "WOW!!"  O_o

I respect your opinion even if I disagree with some of what you're writing. It seems like that goes one way. So... Let's stop here as I like echange and communication, not judgement or "teaching" ^o^

 

10 minutes ago, Canoe said:

This is why they'll move as many as they can into the new hospital so they're removed from regular hospital patients, so there's mutually no cross contamination between them. That's why they have to classify them, so they can further be grouped for treatment in the new hospital.

 

My god. Do you have any idea how much work and materials would be needed to keep such curtains & supports free from causing Transmission?

And negative pressure for each bed area? Vent it outside? Filter it in circulation? Biohazard filters?

Face masks are very effective to prevent the infected from expelling droplets. Direct Contact is minimized as is Secondary Transmission. Simplest to clean/disinfect. Compliance and Pt. condition can be more efficiently scanned. They're not dealing with 12 to 24 Pt.s. Look at those numbers. Compare them to the photo of the beds. Now scale the space and beds to match the numbers.

You want to save people or you don't. If they can build 2 hospitals in 7 days, they can do that too.

 

 

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A general note about dirty data.

 

Mathematicians are used to crystal pure absolutely flawless data.  Almost no one else is.   Dirty data is not worthless data.  There’s merely less that one can do with it.  There is a great danger in treating the data as purer than it is and attempting to do too much.  Derivations are particularly dangerous.


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4 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

A general note about dirty data.

 

Mathematicians are used to crystal pure absolutely flawless data.  Almost no one else is.   Dirty data is not worthless data.  There’s merely less that one can do with it.  There is a great danger in treating the data as purer than it is and attempting to do too much.  Derivations are particularly dangerous.

Which is why I keep telling to stop reading too much into early numbers.

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On 2/6/2020 at 1:39 AM, Bombastinator said:

According to my understanding of what I read (which I’m pretty sure is inperfect) R0 <1 means the disease will die out.  You seem to be saying that this is already under control?  That R0 is below 1 and has been for some time?  ...

So far, that's the indications for those cases outside of China.

Except for the one carrier who went from China to Germany for a business meeting. From her we got more than one infected before it was detected and contained.

Where it's detected, it gets contained. Those infected aren't going on to infect others, who in turn, ...

 

I haven't heard anything yet on if people are still carriers after they've Recovered.

 

On 2/5/2020 at 9:44 PM, Bombastinator said:

-Can the spread be slowed?

It is being slowed.

Infected are being filtered when they leave a country, when they arrive in another one, and are seeking medical care when they come down with symptoms. People are aware.

It's not like it was at its origins, where it was unknown, then a simple flu, then Wuhan Pneumenia, then the numbers starting rolling in.

In comparasion, elsewhere we're significantly more prepared and informed, both medical professionals and the general population.

 

On 2/5/2020 at 9:44 PM, Bombastinator said:

-How much does infection and recovery prevent reinfection?

-Does infection and recovery reduce/eliminate the previously infected as a vector? 
-can vaccination improve survivability? (This one is a bit academic as vaccination isn’t even a possibility yet)

Carrier. It's more than rude to call them vectors.

 

We don't know yet. The overwhelming majority of it is over there.

 

On 2/5/2020 at 9:44 PM, Bombastinator said:

My personal hope is to avoid infection until more is known about the thing.

Considering you've avoided the flu that's already killed over 10,000 Americans so far this season, I'd say you're pretty good to dodge this new one.

Learn what appropriate Prevention Practices are to avoid Transmission, and follow them.

I detailed them in an earlier post. Or go check for the latest at the CDC site.

 

Right now, your chances of getting that flu is significantly higher.

 

On 2/5/2020 at 9:44 PM, Bombastinator said:

IF infection by a dead or crippled strain  (vaccination) will help I’ll do it.  I’ll take an unpleasant week of illness to avoid death. Might not work that way though.

What movie were you watching?

Why on earth would you expect a vaccination to result in an unpleasant illness, let alone a week of it?

With a lot of prior world travel, I've had vaccinations for numerous things for decades, including some live vaccines in the early years. Worst was a sore arm for a day.

 

On 2/6/2020 at 1:29 AM, Cora_Lie said:

Watch the video until 1:11 (just one minute long)

There's nothing more to add... :-S 

Maybe it's me, but that's old news already.

Delays in collecting deceased when so many are dying each day is not unexpected. Nice to see they are being contained. Nothing unexpected. No significant numbers. No new information provided.

Very dramatic. Nice emotional snapshots, and a conference centre looking like it was setup because they could set it up and it looks like they're prepared and doing something.

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9 minutes ago, Canoe said:

So far, that's the indications for those cases outside of China.

Except for the one carrier who went from China to Germany for a business meeting. From her we got more than one infected before it was detected and contained.

Where it's detected, it gets contained. Those infected aren't going on to infect others, who in turn, ...

 

I haven't heard anything yet on if people are still carriers after they've Recovered.

True so far.  Until it happens in China though those Rs are going to keep popping up.  Also it could mutate in China.  There’s a lot of dice rolling inside people’s guts over there.  


Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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3 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

WOW! O_o  You don't know who I am, what my job is for the past XX years and how good I am at it. I won't ask you to "trust" me as you have no reason to.

Just "WOW!!"  O_o

I respect your opinion even if I disagree with some of what you're writing. It seems like that goes one way. So... Let's stop here as I like echange and communication, not judgement or "teaching" ^o^

Great!

Lets see some of that. Stop jumping at all sources as though they're equally valid or credible. Filter and compare outcomes at the different levels of filtration.

Go back and "Look at what they have numbers for/of. See how they fit together. Look at the numbers they release. ..." and see what you think compared to your posts that looked like knee-jerk posts.

 

3 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

You want to save people or you don't. If they can build 2 hospitals in 7 days, they can do that too.

But is that the best mechanism?

Would it allow for adequate patient monitoring?

And is the equipment available, let alone in quantity. Are there staff (capable of following safe protocols) and materials to keep it clean.

 

When you're dealing with the kinds of numbers they're dealing with, it's more appropriate to think like it's been a natural disaster and you have thousands of people to address, with specific resources. Military logistics is much more applicable. We should also be seeing 'what can we put in place right now, next week and two weeks from now - do it'. And given the numbers, they're likely looking out further than that.

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Going to mainland China is no no. But will people go to Taiwan or Japan for semi-important business in a month? The risk should be low enough. Just everyone is scared because plenty of unknown about the disease.

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On 2/6/2020 at 2:05 AM, Canoe said:
Spoiler

 

It is being slowed.

Infected are being filtered when they leave a country, when they arrive in another one, and are seeking medical care when they come down with symptoms. People are aware.

It's not like it was at its origins, where it was unknown, then a simple flu, then Wuhan Pneumenia, then the numbers starting rolling in.

In comparasion, elsewhere we're significantly more prepared and informed, both medical professionals and the general population.

 

Carrier. It's more than rude to call them vectors.

 

We don't know yet. The overwhelming majority of it is over there.

 

Considering you've avoided the flu that's already killed over 10,000 Americans so far this season, I'd say you're pretty good to dodge this new one.

Learn what appropriate Prevention Practices are to avoid Transmission, and follow them.

I detailed them in an earlier post. Or go check for the latest at the CDC site.

 

Right now, your chances of getting that flu is significantly higher.

 

What movie were you watching?

Why on earth would you expect a vaccination to result in an unpleasant illness, let alone a week of it?

With a lot of prior world travel, I've had vaccinations for numerous things for decades, including some live vaccines in the early years. Worst was a sore arm for a day.

 

 

Expecting? Not really.  I was thinking worst case.  My mental model for that one was cow pox.  The original vaccine.  Cowpox was not a super thing to get.  It was a heckuva lot better than smallpox though.  If the best they can do is give me a disease that won’t kill me I’ll still take it.

Edited by LogicalDrm

Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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On 2/6/2020 at 2:12 AM, Bombastinator said:

True so far.  Until it happens in China though those Rs are going to keep popping up.  Also it could mutate in China.  There’s a lot of dice rolling inside people’s guts over there.  

Yes. It is mutating in China. It's mutating (RNA?) within the same family, although one family had multiple members infected with more than one strain, with their genome showing the family members were infected from multiple sources.

 

Every time there's more data released, those numbers are added to graphs and such, and various models are updated to compare different prediction methods against reported numbers.

 

On 2/5/2020 at 9:53 PM, Mister Woof said:

I have a documented health anxiety disorder. The worst part about a health anxiety sufferer is they are constantly seeking certainty. ...

With coronavirus, there is nothing BUT uncertainty, and it is absolutely real.

So for health anxiety sufferers, it's like, exponential fear.

I can't imagine anyone living in Wuhan right now how they may feel. If they have health anxiety like I do, I can't even

  1. The certainty is, you're not in Wuhan, you're not in Hebei, and you're not in China.
  2. So far, all data shows high rates of infection, severe symptoms/conditions and death, are only within China.
  3. The rates else where are significantly and dramatically less.
  4. It is being detected and contained in the rest of the world. We had enough notice before it grew big elsewhere, that we're screening new and detecting prior from those carriers that were travelling before the situation became known.
  5. The susceptibility to asian male lungs is only for inhaled droplets that make it all the way to the lung. That is a small part of potential exposure. That susceptibility is likely to show up in stats, but for someone who has been cautioned and follows the Prevention guidance, it's unlikely to be a factor.
  6. YOU have control of addressing the major transmission risks:
    1. Wash your hands, properly, or use the recommended hand-washing gel/lotion in its place.
    2. Do so at key times, like after arriving at work, before eating, upon arriving home.
    3. Clean the surfaces that droplets can settle on and people can touch. Like the surface of your desk. Your phone. Your door knobs.
    4. Do this diligently, to reduce your exposure, assuming there ever is any infected there.
  7. Stay healthy and rested. If you do get exposed, since you're not elderly and weakened, you're highly likely to fight it off.
  8. If it's reported in your area, if you get symptoms, get checked by a doctor.

Start following the hand washing guidance now. It will help protect you from the flu.

 

Pay some attention to the news, so you'll know when to check the CDC Guidance to see if that has changed as they get more information.

 

***

 

Here's one solution to get your groceries...

***

 

Here's the preliminary numbers for the latest day.

 

1501426175_2019-nCoVgraphDeathsRecovered2020-02-05prelim.png.333dc6f212a87056c66e23a76bf21ce3.png

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@Mister Woof

 

Might help ;)

 


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On 2/6/2020 at 2:33 AM, Canoe said:

Here's the preliminary numbers for the latest day.

 

I’m heartened by that point a few days ago where the daily recovered got bigger than daily deaths.

Edited by LogicalDrm

Life is like a bowl of chocolates: there are all these little crinkly paper cups everywhere.

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