corona virus

[Mister Woof]

Just now, Cora_Lie said:

If it's real this is much more in the fork of what I've been expecting "numbers" speaking.

 

That's deadlier than SARS.

 

Means if I catch it, I'm fuckin dead.

 

Fuck 

[williamcll]

Commodities are starting to run low over here as everyone have began hoarding food and healthcare products. There are now internal cases and I'm sitting on a pile of 3M Auras.

 

Mind you Avian Flu has been discovered in farms and 11 people have been infected with swine flu over in Taiwan.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Mister Woof said:

 

That's deadlier than SARS.

 

Means if I catch it, I'm fuckin dead.

 

Fuck 

Yeah, that's what I wrote in my previous post.

 

Plus, keep in mind that the numbers showed are the ones from February, 1st.

We are 4 days later... At the rate this disease is running...

 

BUT, from what I read in another article, it seems that this disease is more dangerous for Asian Males. It seems to have something to do with a protein in the lungs which is specifically targeted by the Coronavirus and that Asian Males have it more.

I need to find this article and link it.

[WkdPaul]

Just now, Cora_Lie said:

BUT, from what I read in another article, it seems that this disease is more dangerous for Asian Males. It seems to have something to do with a protein in the lungs which is specifically targeted by the Coronavirus and that Asian Males have it more.

I need to find this article and link it.

I think I saw the same article ... can't find it for now.

[Mister Woof]

On 2/5/2020 at 8:54 PM, Cora_Lie said:

Yeah, that's what I wrote in my previous post.

 

Plus, keep in mind that the numbers showed are the ones from February, 1st.

We are 4 days later... At the rate this disease is running...

 

BUT, from what I read in another article, it seems that this disease is more dangerous for Asian Males. It seems to have something to do with a protein in the lungs which is specifically targeted by the Coronavirus and that Asian Males have it more.

I need to find this article and link it.

I'm Chinese, 38, have htn and dm2.

 

Fuck my life.

 

***

 

Boys, legit never been this scared in my entire life.

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Mister Woof said:

Boys, legit never been this scared in my entire life.

Well... Do you live in China ?

 

If so I think that the new hype for you is going to be the full stormtrooper or Darth Vader look!

 

[Mister Woof]

9 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Well... Do you live in China ?

 

If so I think that the new hype for you is going to be the full stormtrooper or Darth Vader look!

 

California. They just shipped 350 people from wuhan about 20 miles away.

[Guest]

Stay at home, have family provide you food and:

 

[WkdPaul]

9 minutes ago, Mister Woof said:

California. They just shipped 350 people from wuhan about 20 miles away.

They should be put in quarantine (that's what Canada is doing, so I hope other countries are doing the same).

 

Apart from that, stay at home as much as possible, protect yourself (mask, wash your hands often, carry disinfectant and clean you hands often, don't touch your face after you touched something in public, etc...)

[williamcll]

44 minutes ago, Mister Woof said:

Taiwan news just reported that tencent may have accidentally released actual numbers, revealing 150k+ cases, 78k suspected, and 25k deaths, putting the mortality rate somewhere between 11-16%.

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

 

If this is true.....good Lord I don't even want to think about this.

 

More contagiojs than flu, more deadly than SARS.

I've seen that post on twitter more than a week ago

 

 

[Mister Woof]

10 minutes ago, williamcll said:

I've seen that post on twitter more than a week ago

 

 

Has anyone given an explanation for it? How come nobody has reported on it until now?

 

Is it not credible? I am curious to the response.

 

Edit: just looked at the small print.

 

Kinda fucked up, man. I'm having a breakdown here.

[Bombastinator]

Which culture has “better” hygiene is irrelevant I think.  I remember an example given once about how one group considered the western practice of hankercheifs to be foul.  What would a person blow their nose and then save it when the correct practice was to wipe it on a tree and be rid of the stuff.  Enculturation is enculturation.  I suspect serious holes are going to be found in American hygiene enculturation for this one as well.  Screw “superior”.
 

what we have now is a communicable, rapidly mutating, and currently (luckily) only opportunistically killing disease with a long and invisible infectious period that has skipped over the containment barrier.  It could be worse, it could be better, but it’s there and it’s out. Arguing about fault does little.  It doesn’t matter where it came from or why anymore.

 

Here are some questions I still have:

-Can the spread be slowed?
Stopping it is apparently a ship that has sailed.  -What is the mutation rate?

-How much does infection and recovery prevent reinfection?

-Does infection and recovery reduce/eliminate the previously infected as a vector? 
-can vaccination improve survivability? (This one is a bit academic as vaccination isn’t even a possibility yet)

 

My personal hope is to avoid infection until more is known about the thing.  IF infection by a dead or crippled strain  (vaccination) will help I’ll do it.  I’ll take an unpleasant week of illness to avoid death.

Might not work that way though.

Even if we stop it dead cold (which I understand according to experts Is not likely) it would still pop up again.  Barriers are temporary, and they weaken the ability of that behind the barrier to resist when the wall does breach.  Influenza is amongst us.  Sounds like corona is going to be too.

[WkdPaul]

1 minute ago, Mister Woof said:

Has anyone given an explanation for it? How come nobody has reported on it until now?

 

Is it not credible? I am curious to the response.

IMO, there's nothing to it since it could be issues with the website, the people in charge of maintaining it, or something similar. It's alarmist to say those are the real numbers, but then, I also don't trust the Chinese gov numbers, there's lots of testimony showing they're not screening everyone (either from actual lack of test kit, or to keep the numbers low, that's not sure).

[Mister Woof]

8 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

IMO, there's nothing to it since it could be issues with the website, the people in charge of maintaining it, or something similar. It's alarmist to say those are the real numbers, but then, I also don't trust the Chinese gov numbers, there's lots of testimony showing they're not screening everyone (either from actual lack of test kit, or to keep the numbers low, that's not sure).

I have a documented health anxiety disorder. The worst part about a health anxiety sufferer is they are constantly seeking certainty. I know that certainty isn't realistic in most normal situations, but it's a little easier to reassure yourself that you won't die from some random disease that has no indication of being active other than a muscle spasm that can be anything.

 

With coronavirus, there is nothing BUT uncertainty, and it is absolutely real.

 

So for health anxiety sufferers, it's like, exponential fear.

 

I can't imagine anyone living in Wuhan right now how they may feel. If they have health anxiety like I do, I can't even

[WkdPaul]

On 2/5/2020 at 9:44 PM, Bombastinator said:

*snip *

Screw “superior”.

* snip *

My reply wasn't targeted at the current issue (coronavirus), I'm not there, and haven't been in the Hubei province, so I wouldn't even dare saying the current issue has anything to do with the Chinese relation to food hygiene in their kitchen.

 

I was merely suggesting that @Canoe getting sick after visiting a small Chinese restaurant might be related to their food hygiene (notice I didn't put any adjectives on that "food hygiene"  ). And like I said, this was based on my PERSONAL experience, from having lived in China and having first hand experience with those issues (at home, in restaurants here, and with family and friends in China).

 

I never said WE (or I) was superior and it wasn't the intention. Sorry if that wasn't clear and if it was seen as such.

 

On 2/5/2020 at 9:53 PM, Mister Woof said:

I have a documented health anxiety disorder

*snip*

Ah! ok, I get why you're freaking out then!

 

Like I previously said, quarantine yourself as much as possible, equip yourself with pocket disinfectant and always have spare masks with you when you go out. But then, I guess you're probably doing all that! (at least I hope!)

 

***

 

Apple might have to delay it's next iPhone because of the factories shutdown ;

https://www.ft.com/content/22345198-47e6-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

 

 

Bosch and other car parts factories are also closed ;

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-global-economic-impact-of-wuhan-novel-coronavirus/

 

 

It's touching a LOT of big players in different part of the economy. Just the cost of all those closed factories alone, is going to be in the Billions, for sure.  

[Guest]

1 hour ago, williamcll said:

I've seen that post on twitter more than a week ago

 

 

I'm not the "gullible" kind, I'm all about numbers, stats and logic.

Wuhan: Population --> 11.08 millions (2018)

Hubei: Population --> 58.5 millions (2015) - Nr sick 16,678 (as of today) and 479 death since 1 month

China: Population --> 1.428 billion (2017) - Nr sick 24,405 (as of today)

 

Question : Do you really think that China (the country which is  monitoring everything about everyone...) would have paralysed it's entire country, paralysed it's entire economy ( 12.24 trillions USD (2017) ), forcibly closed a majority of it's plants, forbidden intercities  travel, locked people into their homes with only 1 person allowed per familly to get out every 2 days to fetch some groceries for a mere 24,405 (0,024 million people) sick?

 

The numbers simply don't make sense...  That's all I'm saying.

 

 

[spartaman64]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/korea-officials-face-anger-coronavirus-quarantine-centres-200130140650388.html

theres so much hysteria caused by the media its interesting how japan is included with china also

[Canoe]

On 2/5/2020 at 10:51 PM, Cora_Lie said:

... for a mere 24,405 (0,024 million people) sick?

The numbers simply don't make sense...  That's all I'm saying.

You aren't looking at all of the numbers.

• Confirmed: 24,503
• Suspected: 23,112
• Under medical observation: 185,555

Add them up.

233,170

That doesn't include all of the ones released from under medical observation.

Nor the 252,154 close contacts that have been followed-up.

 

 

On 2/5/2020 at 8:45 PM, Cora_Lie said:

By the way Just read in french newspaper :

More than 10,000 beds are being prepped to get some sick people on sports hall and hangars in Wuhei. Plus 3 new major cities are in quarantine.

 

 

 

From the picture they obviously don't care at all about cross contamination. Not good auspices...

WHO has now categorised it it as multiple sites outbreak disease...

 

Given the numbers infected, with severe listed as 3,219 cases, they're dealing with 12 Pt.s in a typical hospital setting. Given the wide range of symptoms, combinations, etc., when you have to effectively warehouse Pt.s, it's only practical to group them according to their issues, or to which strain they're infected with, to reduce cross contamination. Given the numbers, would you expect each gets their own room with filtered positive pressure air?

 

[Guest]

23 minutes ago, Canoe said:

You aren't looking at all of the numbers.

• Confirmed: 24,503
• Suspected: 23,112
• Under medical observation: 185,555

I respectfully disagree

One will not base such decisions based on "under medical surveillance".

Quote

Add them up.

233,170

That doesn't include all of the ones released from under medical observation.

If they have been released from observation, they, logically, are not sick, don't have symptoms and are not a sanitary risk. Or maybe I misunderstand the meaning od "under medical surveillance"?

Quote

Nor the 252,154 close contacts that have been followed-up.

I'm simply saying the numbers don't add up and don't make sense. We are talking about China here. A country which doesn't want to lose face, which likes to be in control and has a history of information control, of health cover-ups (scandal of HIV cross contamination of tens of thousands of people in the countryside from obligatory blood donations, among many others), too many testimonies of individuals, doctors and nurses showing that the stats are doctored:
patients with symptoms, not tested, sent home, hence not in stats

deaths declared with other reasons.

 

 

I don't trust the official numbers provided by the Chinese State.

You are free to disagree with me. ^o^

 

16 minutes ago, Canoe said:

Given the numbers, would you expect each gets their own room with filtered positive pressure air?

No, but you could easily put plastic curtains around each bed to isolate each patient, and put negative pressure to prevent air circulation and put UV lights in place to kill germs.

The patients have accute pulmonary problems, fever, and so on. They are immuno-depressed. In such conditions it is easy to catch something else from other sick people in the same hangar. And in such conditions (thousands of sick people in the same space) that is as dangerous - and even deadly - than the main disease.

This is ominous. That's all I'm saying.

[Bombastinator]

On 2/6/2020 at 12:51 AM, Cora_Lie said:

Spoiler

 

I respectfully disagree

One will not base such decisions based on "under medical surveillance".

If they have been released from observation, they, logically, are not sick, don't have symptoms and are not a sanitary risk. Or maybe I misunderstand the meaning od "under medical surveillance"?

I'm simply saying the numbers don't add up and don't make sense. We are talking about China here. A country which doesn't want to lose face, which likes to be in control and has a history of information control, of health cover-ups (scandal of HIV cross contamination of tens of thousands of people in the countryside from obligatory blood donations, among many others), too many testimonies of individuals, doctors and nurses showing that the stats are doctored:
patients with symptoms, not tested, sent home, hence not in stats

deaths declared with other reasons.

 

 

I don't trust the official numbers provided by the Chinese State.

You are free to disagree with me. ^o^

 

No, but you could easily put plastic curtains around each bed to isolate each patient, and put negative pressure to prevent air circulation and put UV lights in place to kill germs.

The patients have accute pulmonary problems, fever, and so on. They are immuno-depressed. In such conditions it is easy to catch something else from other sick people in the same hangar. And in such conditions (thousands of sick people in the same space) that is as dangerous - and even deadly - than the main disease.

This is ominous. That's all I'm saying.

 

 

My take home from all of this:

it’s bad.  Possibly not as bad as some are saying and possibly more bad than some others are saying.

 

Various entities with axes to grind are using it as justification to grind them, creating BS in both directions.  Some because hysteria is useful to them and they don’t care who gets hurt, and others because containment is disadvantageous, and they don’t care who gets hurt.

 

Containment is proving difficult for various reasons.  Success has been limited.  Which is a problem because unless containment is 100% it will continue to grow.
 

Data is not always reliable. 

Behavior of emergency personnel is not always reliable especially in China.

 

Things are still moving quickly.

 

Edited February 11, 2020 by LogicalDrm

[Canoe]

On 2/6/2020 at 12:51 AM, Cora_Lie said:

Spoiler

 

I respectfully disagree

One will not base such decisions based on "under medical surveillance".

If they have been released from observation, they, logically, are not sick, don't have symptoms and are not a sanitary risk.

I'm simply saying the numbers don't add up and don't make sense. We are talking about China here. A country which doesn't want to lose face, which likes to be in control and has a history of information control, of health cover-ups (scandal of HIV cross contamination of tens of thousands of people in the countryside from obligatory blood donations, among many others), too many testimonies of individuals, doctors and nurses showing that the stats are doctored:
patients with symptoms, not tested, sent home, hence not in stats

deaths declared with other reasons.

I don't trust the official numbers provided by the Chinese State.

You are free to disagree with me. ^o^

 

No, but you could easily put plastic curtains around each bed to isolate each patient, and put negative pressure to prevent air circulation and put UV lights in place to kill germs.

The patients have accute pulmonary problems, fever, and so on. They are immuno-depressed. In such conditions it is easy to catch something else from other sick people in the same hangar. And in such conditions (thousands of sick people in the same space) that is as dangerous - and even deadly - than the main disease.

This is ominous. That's all I'm saying.

 

 

You need to learn to work with levels of abstraction. You're tripping up on little trees and tiny shrubs. You don't believe their numbers. Look at what they have numbers for/of. See how they fit together. Look at the numbers they release. ...

You also have to classify what "info" does get out through informal channels. For one, is the person actually there and are they likely to be accurately informed. Are they making stuff up for political purposes, or even simply more social media hits. Look at some of what was "leaking", and confirmed later, and with the information that explains why something was taking place; without the full explanation and context, the original 'leak' looks like someone really didn't know, or lied, intentionally made Misinformation, and in a few cases, an Op..

Look at the source of all news reports. Consider the source. Find the alleged medical paper that's behind what the reporter thought they understood, or twisted into ammo to sell news.

 

On 2/6/2020 at 12:51 AM, Cora_Lie said:

The patients have accute pulmonary problems, fever, and so on. They are immuno-depressed. In such conditions it is easy to catch something else from other sick people in the same hangar. And in such conditions (thousands of sick people in the same space) that is as dangerous - and even deadly - than the main disease.

This is ominous. That's all I'm saying.

This is why they'll move as many as they can into the new hospital so they're removed from regular hospital patients, so there's mutually no cross contamination between them. That's why they have to classify them, so they can further be grouped for treatment in the new hospital.

 

On 2/6/2020 at 12:51 AM, Cora_Lie said:

No, but you could easily put plastic curtains around each bed to isolate each patient, and put negative pressure to prevent air circulation and put UV lights in place to kill germs.

My god. Do you have any idea how much work and materials would be needed to keep such curtains & supports free from causing Transmission?

And negative pressure for each bed area? Vent it outside? Filter it in circulation? Biohazard filters?

Face masks are very effective to prevent the infected from expelling droplets. Direct Contact is minimized as is Secondary Transmission. Simplest to clean/disinfect. Compliance and Pt. condition can be more efficiently scanned. They're not dealing with 12 to 24 Pt.s. Look at those numbers. Compare them to the photo of the beds. Now scale the space and beds to match the numbers.

 

On 2/6/2020 at 12:51 AM, Cora_Lie said:

This is ominous. That's all I'm saying.

Over in China it is. For the numbers known/released, it's a huge undertaking.

Elsewhere?

A few places close to there have a few dozen to deal with.

So far, it has to be reassessed all the time, incoming are being screened or quarantined as appropriate.

We're still early on the number of resolved cases, but apart from any real surprises there, the best things about this it's got people taking precautions that will also protect them from the various flu clusters that are occurring around the world right now. It's flu season. People should have already been following appropriate cleaning of their hands and Frequent Touch Surfaces, etc..

 

 

On 2/6/2020 at 1:20 AM, Bombastinator said:

... Which is a problem because unless containment is 100% it will continue to grow. ...

No. It just has to be contained enough to keep R0 below 1.

But we don't know yet what's required to get there.

So far, we're way below that. But there was several weeks where carriers where moving around and even around the world. So you have to jump on any cases and clusters.

 

See it for what it is and what it could become.

The numbers in China are far worse then the numbers elsewhere. Look at the Recovered rates published from China vs. those in other areas.

 

[Guest]

Watch the video until 1:11 (just one minute long)

There's nothing more to add... :-S 

[Bombastinator]

17 minutes ago, Canoe said:

No. It just has to be contained enough to keep R0 below 1.

But we don't know yet what's required to get there.

So far, we're way below that. But there was several weeks where carriers where moving around and even around the world. So you have to jump on any cases and clusters.

 

See it for what it is and what it could become.

The numbers in China are far worse then the numbers elsewhere. Look at the Recovered rates published from China vs. those in other areas.

 

The term R0 led me to this, which left me more confused https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

 

According to my understanding of what I read (which I’m pretty sure is inperfect) R0 <1 means the disease will die out.  You seem to be saying that this is already under control?  That R0 is below 1 and has been for some time?  There was a whole section on limitations of the term which I didn’t understand well, which mentioned use of differential equations, which was a section of math I was never allowed to learn. (My goodness.  Apparently I’m still angry about that.  It’s been what? 30 years?)

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Canoe said:

You need to learn to work with levels of abstraction. You're tripping up on little trees and tiny shrubs. You don't believe their numbers. Look at what they have numbers for/of. See how they fit together. Look at the numbers they release. ...

You also have to classify what "info" does get out through informal channels. For one, is the person actually there and are they likely to be accurately informed. Are they making stuff up for political purposes, or even simply more social media hits. Look at some of what was "leaking", and confirmed later, and with the information that explains why something was taking place; without the full explanation and context, the original 'leak' looks like someone really didn't know, or lied, intentionally made Misinformation, and in a few cases, an Op..

Look at the source of all news reports. Consider the source. Find the alleged medical paper that's behind what the reporter thought they understood, or twisted into ammo to sell news.

WOW! O_o  You don't know who I am, what my job is for the past XX years and how good I am at it. I won't ask you to "trust" me as you have no reason to.

Just "WOW!!"  O_o

I respect your opinion even if I disagree with some of what you're writing. It seems like that goes one way. So... Let's stop here as I like echange and communication, not judgement or "teaching" ^o^

 

10 minutes ago, Canoe said:

This is why they'll move as many as they can into the new hospital so they're removed from regular hospital patients, so there's mutually no cross contamination between them. That's why they have to classify them, so they can further be grouped for treatment in the new hospital.

 

My god. Do you have any idea how much work and materials would be needed to keep such curtains & supports free from causing Transmission?

And negative pressure for each bed area? Vent it outside? Filter it in circulation? Biohazard filters?

Face masks are very effective to prevent the infected from expelling droplets. Direct Contact is minimized as is Secondary Transmission. Simplest to clean/disinfect. Compliance and Pt. condition can be more efficiently scanned. They're not dealing with 12 to 24 Pt.s. Look at those numbers. Compare them to the photo of the beds. Now scale the space and beds to match the numbers.

You want to save people or you don't. If they can build 2 hospitals in 7 days, they can do that too.

 

 

[Bombastinator]

A general note about dirty data.

 

Mathematicians are used to crystal pure absolutely flawless data.  Almost no one else is.   Dirty data is not worthless data.  There’s merely less that one can do with it.  There is a great danger in treating the data as purer than it is and attempting to do too much.  Derivations are particularly dangerous.