corona virus

[Canoe]

For those that may be working at a desk and feel a need to do more than the CDC recommends for preventing infection, you may be able to use a filtered air source.

 

Even if you can't wear a mask or respirator for some reason, you can

• get an inexpensive HEPA cone filter for a vacuum cleaner,
• cover/seal the narrow end,
• put a computer fan (one that can build some static pressure) over the wide end, and
• run it on USB, blowing gently towards your head. The lower voltage should reduce the speed enough.

That should keep a stream of filtered air presented to the air around you so you have less exposure to any airborne droplets present. It will also be pulling droplets out of the air that haven't fallen out of the air yet, so cleaning the office air while keeping filtered air presented to your face. This will also reduce any levels on surfaces, so you have less exposure before you next clean that surface. Any HEPA or near HEPA air filter air cleaner (Honeywell makes some) will help clear the air. Nothing is an absolute.

• More important is the hand washing.
  • I posted more on transmission back on page 14, and check the CDC web site for more up to date information on that.
• And washing Frequent Touch Surfaces. Counters, hand rails, door knobs, etc..
  • One Epidemiologist reminded people that SARS was able to survive on stainless steel up for up to 36 hours. Not known for 2019-nCoV...

The big thing is any preventative measures will help reduce your exposure to flu this season. Flu has already killed over 10,000 in the U.S. this season.

 

[Guest]

Or, if you want to follow  the current social media "Coronavirus miracle tea" from Quack doctors and wondrous sorcerer : Drink Fennel tea!!!!!

 

YES!!!  Fennel Tea CAN cure you from the incurable Coronavirus!!!

 

 

[Mister Woof]

2 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Or, if you want to follow  the current social media "Coronavirus miracle tea" from Quack doctors and wondrous sorcerer : Drink Fennel tea!!!!!

 

YES!!!  Fennel Tea CAN cure you from the incurable Coronavirus!!!

 

 

I'll stick with vitamins and trying to reduce stress

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Mister Woof said:

I'll stick with vitamins and trying to reduce stress

[Canoe]

• Fourth day in a row with total Recovered above total Deaths.
• Sixth day in a row with:
  • More Recovered than Deaths
  • Each day has more Recovered than the prior day.
• Third day, almost fourth day, in a row where Recovered is more than double Deaths.
• Most recent day had almost four times (3.96x) as many Recovered as Deaths.
• Unfortunately, Deaths is also climbing higher, but much slower.

 

 

***

 

Good job they don't kill and delete threads based on Signal-to-Noise.

 

Nor on comfirmation bias with a low sample size, or sample size of one, and ignoring all of the documented factors that are 99 44/100 likely to explain their observation.

[Bombastinator]

On 2/5/2020 at 4:23 AM, Canoe said:

• Fourth day in a row with total Recovered above total Deaths.
• Sixth day in a row with:
  • More Recovered than Deaths
  • Each day has more Recovered than the prior day.
• Third day, almost fourth day, in a row where Recovered is more than double Deaths.
• Most recent day had almost four times (3.96x) as many Recovered as Deaths.
• Unfortunately, Deaths is also climbing higher, but much slower.

 

 

This I find encouraging.  The red line still has a belly in it I don’t like but the shape of the green line pleases me.

Edited February 11, 2020 by LogicalDrm

[Canoe]

We're up to 50,000 on the Y index.

Nearly 48,000 Confirmed and Suspected.

 

Quote

CNHC daily update

Currently, 252,154 close contacts have been followed-up, 18,457 were released from medical observation today and 185,555 remain under medical observation.

 

[Bombastinator]

That “world suspected line has a pretty strong dip in it that doesn’t match the shape of the other curves.  Kinda curious as to why.

[Canoe]

On 2/5/2020 at 5:42 AM, Bombastinator said:

That “world suspected line has a pretty strong dip in it that doesn’t match the shape of the other curves.  Kinda curious as to why.

Speculation: could mean they've caught up or are catching up with the backlog, and/or fewer people going to the hospitals (for ______ reasons), and/or the new hospital is online and Pt.s are presenting there but they're not logging or haven't yet reported Suspected numbers, others?

 

***

 

2019-nCoV infected found on cruise ships. At least two ships affected.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51381594

Quote

 

At least 10 people on board a cruise ship docked in the Japanese port of Yokohama have tested positive for coronavirus, health authorities said.

Almost 300 of the 3,700 people on the Diamond Princess have been tested so far. The number of infected could rise.

The checks began after an 80-year-old Hong Kong man who had been on the ship last month fell ill with the virus. Some 3,600 people on a second cruise ship docked in Hong Kong are also being tested.

...

The Hong Kong man believed to be the source boarded the cruise ship in Yokohama, Japan, on 20 January, and disembarked in Hong Kong on 25 January. He was only later found to have tested positive for the virus.

Officials on the cruise ship began screening guests on Monday evening, and the vessel was placed under quarantine on Tuesday.

 

Passengers and crew on the ship will now be under quarantine for 14 days. The incubation period of the virus is believed to be around two weeks.

 

Quote

 

Separately on Wednesday, 1,800 passengers and a similar number of crew onboard the World Dream, a cruise ship docked in Hong Kong, are also being tested for the virus.

Local media reports say that three Chinese passengers who had spent time on the ship tested positive for the virus after disembarking.

 

The infected passengers were on the ship between 19 to 24 January. Hong Kong health officials say none of those on board had contact with the three passengers.

 

The statment above the that below, don't seem to match... How about Droplet Transmission or Indirect Contact Transmission?

Quote

Some 30 crew members of the cruise ship say they are suffering symptoms of the virus and are also being tested.

 

***

 

Added charting Hubei separately.

Paints a different picture.

 

Before people jump all over Hubei, remember that:

• For cases outside of China, most locations/countries are dealing with one or a handful of cases, with twelve dealing with up to two dozen Confirmed cases each, some of which have already recovered.
• In Hubei, it's not just the quantity of patients as though they all need the identical care and treatment. The significantly larger number of Pt.s (over 16,000), with over 3,000 severe, means Hubei is dealing with a much wider range of symptoms, serious/severe symptoms, and combinations of symptoms, creating a much greater complexity of cases and patient needs - all of which require care and have to be repeatedly tested, accessed, treated and managed.

 

 

***

 

They're coming up with a "proper" name for 2019-nCoV.

There are rules.

Quote

Previous outbreaks provide cautionary tales for the team. The H1N1 virus in 2009 was dubbed "swine flu". This led Egypt to slaughter all of its pigs, even though it was spread by people, not pigs.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51371770

 

I'd guess that Wong's Won Ton Wuhan Wallop is not in the running.

[Bombastinator]

1 minute ago, Canoe said:

They're coming up with a "proper" name for 2019-nCoV.

There are rules.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51371770

 

I'd guess that Wong's Won Ton Wuhan Wallop is not in the running.

 

The Egyptian swine slaughter was a justification not a reason I understand.  It was done largely by Muslim religious extremists and was directed primarily at a specific Christian minority that kept the pigs for garbage cleanup.  There was also the rape of many Christians in that group.  The result was a sanitation workers strike that temporarily  crippled Cairo.

[WkdPaul]

More reports of harassment of Asians (not just Chinese) in most countries.

 

I can't say for other provinces, but here (in QC) it doesn't seem that bad. There's a few cases or xenophobia here and there, but nothing that seems serious.

 

I can't find the article rn, but there's a journalist that lost his job over a tweet (he posted a picture of himself with his Asian barber and tweeted something like "hope I only got a haircut" with the coronavirus hashtag).

 

And then there are idiots like this ;

https://globalnews.ca/news/6503789/false-coronavirus-claim-passenger-westjet-toronto-jamaica/

 

 

Some schools are trying to calm parents ;

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/longueil-police-coronavirus-bullying-1.5452371

 

 

But despite that call to calms, you'll always have people being afraid that they could catch it by getting a parcel from China or going to their local Chinese buffet ...

Edited February 5, 2020 by wkdpaul
typo, added details

[Letgomyleghoe]

Just now, wkdpaul said:

But despite that call to calms, you'll always have people being afraid that they could catch it by getting a parcel from China or going to their local Chinese buffet ...

I could see the whole parcel thing, but why the Chinese buffets? Just because it has China in the name¿?

 

Some people's logic amazes me

[dalekphalm]

5 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

And then there are idiots like this ;

https://globalnews.ca/news/6503789/false-coronavirus-claim-passenger-westjet-toronto-jamaica/

What that guy did was downright dangerous. At least he was charged (with 2 crimes) fortunately. Hope he's given the maximum sentence to make an example out of him.

 

 

[WkdPaul]

2 minutes ago, VegetableStu said:

we just had a ministry that had to say "landlords and homeowners who turn away existing tenants serving their temporary Leave of Absence will be penalised"

 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/wuhan-coronavirus-landlords-eviction-tenants-quarantine-loa-12387052

That's some next level ... kicking out tenants that are in quarantine is the best way to spread the virus! Who the hell is that dumb?

[Canoe]

21 minutes ago, scuff gang said:

I could see the whole parcel thing, but why the Chinese buffets? Just because it has China in the name¿?

Some people's logic amazes me

Because they're more likely to have had someone from China return from a visit.

 

Back during SARS, a friend and I went out for dinner at a small & cheap restaurant in 'China town'.

I didn't hear from him until around four to six weeks later. I'd been sick with a flu and my first time out was to the local restaurant. Where I found my friend. It was his first time out since that dinner, as he'd been sick too. We'd had the same symptoms. We joked about 'the old man in the corner who was sneezing' (there wasn't one), but it was quite the coincidence.

 

Another week or two and everyone should have either presented with symptoms or came in through a more stringent screening. There are indications that everyone who could be infected is very aware and seeks medical care with any symptoms. Including one case who was informed by signs at the airport were he arrived, and later came down with symptoms.

 

A friend just told me how her Dad and wife came for the weekend. One of her children was concerned that they came from the big city, so he was wearing his Mickey Mouse mask the whole time... lol

I emailed back that the cotton bandana a la stage coach robber is a lot more fun!

 

[Bombastinator]

22 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

More reports of harassment of Asians (not just Chinese) in most countries.

 

I can't say for other provinces, but here (in QC) it doesn't seem that bad. There's a few cases or xenophobia here and there, but nothing that seems serious.

 

I can't find the article rn, but there's a journalist that lost his job over a tweet (he posted a picture of himself with his Asian barber and tweeted something like "hope I only got a haircut" with the coronavirus hashtag).

 

And then there are idiots like this ;

https://globalnews.ca/news/6503789/false-coronavirus-claim-passenger-westjet-toronto-jamaica/

 

 

Some schools are trying to calm parents ;

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/longueil-police-coronavirus-bullying-1.5452371

 

 

But despite that call to calms, you'll always have people being afraid that they could catch it by getting a parcel from China or going to their local Chinese buffet ...

These sorts of things tend to be justifications rather than reasons.

[Canoe]

26 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

... I can't find the article rn, but there's a journalist that lost his job over a tweet (he posted a picture of himself with his Asian barber and tweeted something like "hope I only got a haircut" with the coronavirus hashtag). ...

I saw one somewhere, with a line of guys in barber chairs, getting shaves & haircut. Guy with his face largely covered got the brush with soap spread near his nose and mouth. Triggered him to sneeze. The big guy in the chair beside him freaked out, jumped out of his chair and smashed a wash towel down on the guy's face. A little more upset following that...

 

I guess Wong's Bat Won Ton Wuhan Wallop could be shortened to Wuhan Wallop.

[WkdPaul]

10 minutes ago, Canoe said:

*snip*

This might be more related with their bad habits with food hygiene with Chinese Mainlanders ... I know this is a generalization, but it's based on my personal experience and my time in China, and it's more often than not only with the older generation that just arrived. My wife doesn't have the same issue than her parents (leaving food on the counter overnight, cross-contamination, poorly washed dishes and cutlery, cleaning surfaces with smelly and dirty rags, etc ...)

[Guest]

36 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

That's some next level ... kicking out tenants that are in quarantine is the best way to spread the virus! Who the hell is that dumb?

The stupid one who doesn't want to have his "property" stigmatized as "one of those sick people from China was living here! Who knows you could catch it because for sure some of the virus did survive and you know that they are not that clean there!"

 

Totally stupid, I do agree with you... But human mind is a sewer of stupidity (among other things).

[Bombastinator]

10 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

The stupid one who doesn't want to have his "property" stigmatized as "one of those sick people from China was living here! Who knows you could catch it because for sure some of the virus did survive and you know that they are not that clean there!"

 

Totally stupid, I do agree with you... But human mind is a sewer of stupidity (among other things).

Rofl.  So instead of being locally possibly recognized as a house that once had a corona patient in it he became literally internationally famous as having not only a corona patient in one of his units but being an epic douche as well.  Now it’s not just that one unit with a stigmata, it’s every unit he owns or may own in the future.  Smooth.

[Canoe]

On 2/5/2020 at 7:28 PM, wkdpaul said:

This might be more related with their bad habits with food hygiene with Chinese Mainlanders ... I know this is a generalization, but it's based on my personal experience and my time in China, and it's more often than not only with the older generation that just arrived. My wife doesn't have the same issue than her parents (leaving food on the counter overnight, cross-contamination, poorly washed dishes and cutlery, cleaning surfaces with smelly and dirty rags, etc ...)

I really didn't want to get into what I've seen in restaurants... Add someone infected to an environment like you describe. There's a reason they're pushing proper food prep hygiene with this.

 

On 2/5/2020 at 4:47 AM, Bombastinator said:

This I find encouraging.  The red line still has a belly in it I don’t like but the shape of the green line pleases me.

No data to back this up, but my take on the red line is that it will flip it's curve on the tangent of it's latest section. I'd expect to see it level off between 700 and 800, possibly 800 to 900. That's also in the range of some of the predictions, based on limited models, so my pick may be biased by those. The next few days will begin to show if that's a reasonable guess.

[WkdPaul]

13 minutes ago, Canoe said:

I really didn't want to get into what I've seen in restaurants... Add someone infected to an environment like you describe. There's a reason they're pushing proper food prep hygiene with this.

I'm guessing it's gonna be hard to change stuff that almost literally billions of people are doing over there

 

Habits are hard to change, though from what I saw, the new generation is a lot more aware of all that. Like the pouring hot tea on dishes, it used to be done to keep the cup warm (among other reasons), but now I see lots of the older generation pouring hot water on dishes (like plates and bols) thinking this sterilize the dish ... lots of misconception and ignorance. But seeing what happened to that generation and the few that followed (with Mao), I can't blame them to have huge lack in their knowledge and understanding of the world.

 

 

PS : worked for a restaurant supplier when I was young (my dad was a chef and was the one to help me get one of my first job) ... didn't stay long and what I've seen in some kitchen is burned in my brain. Thankfully in my city, inspections have been ramping up and the city isn't afraid to publicly shame a restaurant and close them if needed.

Edited February 5, 2020 by wkdpaul

[Canoe]

1 minute ago, wkdpaul said:

I'm guessing it's gonna be hard to change stuff that almost literally billions of people are doing over there

 

Habits are hard to change, though from what I saw, the new generation is a lot more aware of all that. Like the pouring hot tea on dishes, it used to be done to keep the cup warm (among other reasons), but now I see lots of the older generation pouring hot water on dishes (like plates and bols) thinking this sterilize the dish ... lots of misconception and ignorance. But seeing what happened to that generation and the few that followed (with Mao), I can't blame them to have huge lack in their knowledge and understanding of the world.

 

 

PS : worked for a restaurant supplier when I was young (my dad was a chef and was the one to help me get one of my first job) ... didn't stay long and what I've seen in some kitchen is burned in my brain. Thankfully here, inspections have been ramping up and the city isn't afraid to publicly shame a restaurant and close them if needed.

The spitting on street and related hygiene over there doesn't help.

 

We, and others on here, could share some rather horrifying stories. Like room-aged steaks being scraped of the green before cooking and serving. Bowls of food on table back to kitchen, combined in a new bowl, and out to another table. Croutons in an open bag on shelf barely above floor, with droppings inside the bag, while at night they're leaving food out for the mice...

[Mister Woof]

Taiwan news just reported that tencent may have accidentally released actual numbers, revealing 150k+ cases, 78k suspected, and 25k deaths, putting the mortality rate somewhere between 11-16%.

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

 

If this is true.....good Lord I don't even want to think about this.

 

More contagiojs than flu, more deadly than SARS.

[Guest]

By the way Just read in french newspaper :

More than 10,000 beds are being prepped to get some sick people on sports hall and hangars in Wuhei. Plus 3 new major cities are in quarantine.

 

 

From the picture they obviously don't care at all about cross contamination. Not good auspices...

WHO has now categorised it it as multiple sites outbreak disease...

 

https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2020/02/05/coronavirus-2019-ncov-l-epidemie-actuelle-nettement-plus-rapide-que-celle-du-sras-de-2003_6028532_4355770.html

 

2 very interesting graphs (can't copy them here) show a comparison between this Coronavirus and the SRAS in 2003. It shows the evolution of the disease within a month as day 0 = day WHO has been informed of outbreak.

The 2nd graph shows that this one is deadlier much more quickly than SRAS.

 

For the text you can google translate

 

On 2/5/2020 at 8:45 PM, Mister Woof said:

Taiwan news just reported that tencent may have accidentally released actual numbers, revealing 150k+ cases, 78k suspected, and 25k deaths, putting the mortality rate somewhere between 11-16%.

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

If it's real this is much more in the fork of what I've been expecting "numbers" speaking.