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corona virus

SansVarnic

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ATTENTION: there is a covid 19 F@H event happening, you can find it HERE.

 

this is a good opportunity to help with research!

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On 2/2/2020 at 11:11 AM, Canoe said:
Spoiler

 

That's pretty much what my thoughts were.

I was very surprised that it wasn't the 'fits through screen/sieve' model. Because, of course, everyone knows that as a "truth".

 

The 3m technical materials expanded on that a lot. And how it is incorporated to a filter design targeted at filtering ________, and how important the additional ways it catches particles are.

 

I thought the urine was to resist one of the gas agents?

 

With using the cotton bandana in heat (90 F +), I tried damping it and I tried wetting it. It was nice for evaporating and cooling. For filtering, for me it seemed the same at first, then perhaps slightly better, then very much worse. I'm guessing the cotton fibres that were doing the work got coated/clumped with the now wetted super fine clay particles, affecting how much of which size of particles it was catching. So I stuck with what moisture it got from my breath. 

I don't know. I'd assumed it was a mix of its physical structure and the way the threaded fibre has air paths through and bits sticking out and then out more finely, and so on, creating more effective surface area than the mere area of the "surface" of the idealized thread. Or that combined with it's charge behaviour.

 

It may only take one, but how many can your body fight off. This is why weak, reduced immune function or sick people are usually the most susceptible. (2019-nCoV is reported to use a certain receptor in the lung, of which Asian Males are known to have ~double the usual number)

All you need to do is reduce your exposure down to the level that your body can fight off. Knowing where that is, ....? So you do what you can.

 

Which is why I posted this earlier. 

Which surprised me as the emphasis made is that surgical masks are designed to keep droplets in (expelling and infecting others), not keep droplets out (you from inhaling droplets).

 

 

I don’t know if gas agent resistance was part of it or not.  I remember they were famous for not working very well.  Might have been misuse.  
 

Cotton is practically pure cellulose. Iirc Nitrocellulose, “guncotton” or cordite, was made by soaking cotton in nitric acid.

 Makes me wonder how rayon might do.  It’s cellulose too, and it’s got even more charge which is why it’s famous for picking up odors. (and releasing them later) The fibers have a different structure though.  They’re continuous, rather than a yarn, but they also look very different.  I don’t know if it’s hydroscopic or not.   I don’t know if hydroscopic even matters.  It’s a bit annoying that this is something which has obviously been known about for along time yet I can’t find it in the internet.  If cotton works but rayon doesn’t it would imply the structure would be involved.

Edited by LogicalDrm

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51 minutes ago, Teddy07 said:

Omg

Not even here can you escape the crazy hype

Which crazy hype?  There so many kinds.


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1 hour ago, Bombastinator said:

Which crazy hype?  There so many kinds.

I mean the hype surrounding the virus in general. You hear it all day everday in the media. It is just making money with fearmongering and people go along with it.

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On 2/2/2020 at 12:42 PM, Bombastinator said:

... Makes me wonder how rayon might do.  It’s cellulose too, and it’s got even more charge which is why it’s famous for picking up odors. (and releasing them later) The fibers have a different structure though.  They’re continuous, rather than a yarn, but they also look very different.  I don’t know if it’s hydroscopic or not.   I don’t know if hydroscopic even matters.  It’s a bit annoying that this is something which has obviously been known about for along time yet I can’t find it in the internet.  If cotton works but rayon doesn’t it would imply the structure would be involved.

All aspects likely contribute. Just a matter of how much for each.

I'm sure the leaders in filter development are very well aware, but that's highly likely company secrets.

With the 3m briefs, I remember that for under a given micron, they were most involved with the charge.

 

If it works, nothing wrong with different materials for different layers.

 

***

  • The Chinese National Health Commission (CNHC) is reporting a new number for Suspected Cases, 19,533 as of end of February 1, 2020. The CDC number is 17,998.
  • Here's the graph with the CNHC number. It places the Total of Confirmed + Suspected cases over 34,000.
  • It is unknown how many of Suspected cases end up as Confirmed cases.

 

807714428_2019-nCoVgraphConfirmedCasesCases-2020-02-01updated.thumb.png.b5130b1d326a158a82f328e946d9bd41.png

In support of earlier allegations supposedly out of Wuhan, I've seen claims on twitter that there are news reports that hospitals in Wuhan have more recently had plenty of test kits, and they are restricting tests - to those that present with more severe symptoms. This means mild cases that would not be admitted and treated, are not tested, hence not Detected and added to Confirmed.

 

Some will say that is for keeping Confirmed numbers down; but it is also a valid conservation of test kits, as they're surely in this for the long haul, to try to ensure they do not end up in short supply of kits for testing those that present with more severe symptoms. Makes sense. Present below a threshold, no test & sent home (added to Suspected?). Above that threshold, tested, then rejected or Confirmed. Need to know for determining what treatments are required, and what isolation is required. And you don't want to mix flu patients in with 2019-nCoV patients and have each also catch what the other has. Suspected climbs well in sync with Confirmed. Perhaps this is one source of their Suspected numbers, if not the major one.

 

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9 hours ago, Canoe said:

Except as already noted:

  • Reports are thousands are being sent home without being tested and without being seen. Do they have 2019-nCoV, or a flu, or ?
  • First under way, 1,000 beds, second to come, 1,300 beds.

 

Flu, I mentioned earlier that there were over 75 thousand people with flu symptoms but could not be diagnosed with NCov.


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4 minutes ago, KnoT said:

Ive seen the  map. Question is based on what  it is updated?  There will be official and unofficial information when it comes to numbers. There may be thousands that are infected but they are not confirmed yet. Also i dont think every single person that is sick is part of this growing number.

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1 minute ago, oskar23 said:

Ive seen the  map. Question is based on what  it is updated?  There will be official and unofficial information when it comes to numbers. There may be thousands that are infected but they are not confirmed yet. Also i dont think every single person that is sick is part of this growing number.

image.png.427b9e1d872edf4801d948269f802f0a.png


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Posted · Original PosterOP
16 hours ago, Canoe said:

Respirator filters need replacing too. With the right filter, respirators are effective, IF the fit is correct. Most people are not trained on how to wear a respirator such that it has a seal to their face. The leaks have less resistance to airflow than through the respirator's filter(s), so they will still be breathing in droplets.

3m 6000 series.jpg

Yeah ik masks don't really help with anything except keeping your germs with you, respirators still have filters but atleast they're affective.

 

Hmm maybe all those gasmask cartridges i saved up will come in handy ?


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7 hours ago, Teddy07 said:

I mean the hype surrounding the virus in general. You hear it all day everday in the media. It is just making money with fearmongering and people go along with it.

You didn't have to click on a thread clearly labeled "corona virus".  So it was avoidable and to I don't think the discussion in this thread is crazy or hype.  It has a few ups and downs but is relatively rational and calm.


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7 hours ago, Teddy07 said:

I mean the hype surrounding the virus in general. You hear it all day everday in the media. It is just making money with fearmongering and people go along with it.

I wouldn’t say “just”.  It’s not pure hype like some kardashian thing.  It’s actually happening and while it is not currently a world threat that is because people are being very very careful.  Will there be people that use anything at all to advance their interests and use smoke and mirrors? Sure it’s unavoidable.  “Just hype” Implies pure smoke.  There’s some real fire under this one.  How Smokey the fire is I do not know.  The info I’m seeing here seems to be flame rather than smoke related mostly.


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On 2/2/2020 at 6:46 PM, scuff gang said:

Yeah ik masks don't really help with anything except keeping your germs with you, respirators still have filters but atleast they're affective.

 

Hmm maybe all those gasmask cartridges i saved up will come in handy ?

Except then I found and posted...

Quote

Dr. Mark Loeb, an infectious disease specialist at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario, said a study during an outbreak of the SARS coronavirus found that any type of protection — whether a mask or a respirator — reduced the risk of infections in health care workers by about 85 percent.

 

***

 

On 2/2/2020 at 4:46 PM, oskar23 said:

Ive seen the  map. Question is based on what  it is updated?  There will be official and unofficial information when it comes to numbers. There may be thousands that are infected but they are not confirmed yet. Also i dont think every single person that is sick is part of this growing number.

Yes, there are thousands that are infected with something, but they are not confirmed yet. The number of them they suspect have 2019-nCoV is published.

Quote

Chinese National Health Commission (CNHC) is reporting a new number for Suspected Cases, 19,533 as of end of February 1, 2020.

It's in a post above and on the graph I posted. Using the CNHC numbers they've released, the total of Confirmed and Suspected is over 34,000.

They're not testing those that present with mild symptoms, just those with more severe symptoms. Read above.

 

***

 

Latest snapshot graph, to February 2, 2020, 9 pm EST.

 

We have no numbers on how many classed as Suspected end up later joining Confirmed. The CNHE report includes all sorts of numbers on efforts to chase down and locate and determine the status of those who came into contact with someone who later presented as infected. They're also reporting corrections, even minor ones of one or a few numbers. Combined, it suggests there is a substantial effort being made at record keeping.

For all of the Confirmed, 95% are Unresolved. How many will end up as Deaths vs. Recovered. Given Deaths so far is 362 and Recovered is 487. Recovered is finally climbing higher than Deaths, suggesting, if early and weakly, that although a prolonged illness, much more Recovered will occur.

 

 

2019-nCoV graph Confirmed Cases, World Cases - 2020-02-02.png

 

***

 

Newer numbers, not comprehensive, show Deaths at 362, and Recovered at 530.

So it appears we're finally getting more Recovered such that then are no longer Deaths:Recovered near 1:1, but nearing 2:3.

 

I found some values for SARS and added them to the graph. I'm hoping to find a whole data set, Confirmed per Day. Rather a material difference.

 

675079099_2019-cCoVvs.SARS-partialdata.thumb.png.f9dad6cde1618864c31975b5ff1e5649.png

 

 

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O boy this thread is either going to stay on track or go off the rails and im just here b4 cleaning or locked.

(didnt read all the comments)...

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1 minute ago, GodSeph said:

O boy this thread is either going to stay on track or go off the rails and im just here b4 cleaning or locked.

(didnt read all the comments)...

You're late in the game, it's been cleaned a few times already :D


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3 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

You're late in the game, it's been cleaned a few times already :D

It’s true.  Looks like I just got my comment cleaned.  Don’t know why, but I’ve yet to see a cleaning that didn’t make sense in retrospect so I’ll take it in good grace.  Don’t know why on the last one.  They generally wind up making sense eventually though.  I was reacting to the text rather than the graph which the text implied was out of date.  I could have been wrong though.


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2 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

It’s true.  Looks like I just got my comment cleaned.  Don’t know why, but I’ve yet to see a cleaning that didn’t make sense in retrospect so I’ll take it in good grace.  Don’t know why on the last one.  They generally wind up making sense eventually though.  I was reacting to the text rather than the graph which the text implied was out of date.  I could have been wrong though.

We usually don't talk about moderation publicly, but specifically for this, I can confirm nothing was done (in this thread) with your replies. ;)

 

So I guess it's technically fine since we're talking about lack of moderation instead :P

 


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3 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

We usually don't talk about moderation publicly, but specifically for this, I can confirm nothing was done (in this thread) with your replies. ;)

 

So I guess it's technically fine since we're talking about lack of moderation instead :P

 

Could have just been me stupiding the submit button then and thinking I’d been cleaned.  Derp on my part.


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15 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

Could have just been me stupiding the submit button then and thinking I’d been cleaned.  Derp on my part.

No problem, that also happens to me from time to time :P 


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Also me (on Corona virus): Was a perfect weekend to go re-up my prepper supplies.  Since having kids I have let it slide so felt nice getting the DoomsDay supply re-evaluated and shored up.

 

Also also me: If you can avoid public places with high foot traffic over the next few months, do so.


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30 minutes ago, Tristerin said:

Also me (on Corona virus): Was a perfect weekend to go re-up my prepper supplies.  Since having kids I have let it slide so felt nice getting the DoomsDay supply re-evaluated and shored up.

 

Also also me: If you can avoid public places with high foot traffic over the next few months, do so.

I think that might apply if one lived in Wuhan.   Just about anywhere else in the world it probably doesn’t though.  The impression I got from the last post by @Canoe is things are starting to even out a bit which gives me hope.


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15 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

I think that might apply if one lived in Wuhan.   Just about anywhere else in the world it probably doesn’t though.  The impression I got from the last post by @Canoe is things are starting to even out a bit which gives me hope.


Fortune favors the prepared, in all things.  

 

Its currently within 4 hours driving from St. Louis, way to close for comfort.  

 

To each their own, but I don't gamble when the odds are bad/manipulatable, I stack them ever in my favor.  

 

EDIT - Im also the guy that didn't purchase any food stuffs exported out of China during the weekends venture - likelihood of it being exposed is about as slim to none based on transit times to shelf in the US - but why take that risk?  I like 100% odds in my favor, if its not 100% than I work to bridging that gap in all things.

 


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7 minutes ago, Tristerin said:


Fortune favors the prepared, in all things.  

 

Its currently within 4 hours driving from St. Louis, way to close for comfort.  

 

To each their own, but I don't gamble when the odds are bad/manipulatable, I stack them ever in my favor.  

 

EDIT - Im also the guy that didn't purchase any food stuffs exported out of China during the weekends venture - likelihood of it being exposed is about as slim to none based on transit times to shelf in the US - but why take that risk?  I like 100% odds in my favor, if its not 100% than I work to bridging that gap in all things.

 

I generally consider prepping to be a generally harmless and reasonable hobby.  My personal attitude on the subject is exemplified by the character in the movie “impact” who set up a lawn chair on the beach to watch the continent killing tidal wave roll in. As you said: to each their own.


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An interesting article which was published today in Le Monde (French newspaper).

I pasted the Google Translation (sorry...)

Here's the link to the original: https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/02/03/face-au-coronavirus-les-failles-du-systeme-de-sante-chinois_6028226_3244.html

Spoiler

Faced with the coronavirus epidemic, the flaws in the Chinese health system

As with SARS, the coronavirus could force the country to rethink its health system.

Chen Nini, 32, waits in the hallway of Wuhan Number 3 Hospital, where his dying mother is being held in quarantine. At the end of December 2019, the mother, Chen Wantao, 59, went to buy meat at the Huanan market, where the epidemic started a few weeks earlier. "If she had known there was a risk there, she would never have gone there. But because of the Wuhan government, which controlled the information, she did not know. That's how she got infected ... "sighs her daughter.

Colds, fever ... In mid-January, Chen Wantao presented the symptoms of the new coronavirus. On the 18th, while China still assured that the latter was not transmissible between humans, she was admitted to the hospital. Blood tests and X-ray of the lungs suggest that she has pneumonia. Doctors are talking about this raging new epidemic, but are not carrying out tests that would detect the virus. No bed is available, Chen Wantao must go home.

A week later, China recognized the extent of the disease, and Chinese President Xi Jinping raised the alarm. Chen Nini takes his mother to Hankou Hospital, one of those who has been assigned to care for patients infected with the virus. "There were more than 1,000 patients waiting in line, but still no beds available," continues the young woman. We had to come back in line every day for outpatient treatment, when my mother's condition became critical: she could barely breathe, became incontinent, and her fever did not go down. "

The diagnosis is still not confirmed: "Hospitals often use the excuse of the lack of diagnostic kits not to do the tests, and not to admit my mother because it is not proven that she has the coronaviruses. But the reality is that they don't have enough beds, "says Chen Nini. On January 27, finally, a glimmer of hope, Chen Nini received a message from the emergency director of Hankou hospital: a bed will be available in the afternoon, the staff is cleaning it. Her mother is on oxygen in an emergency corridor. But the bed is no longer available a few hours later. "Someone who has relationships must have passed in front of us," said Chen Nini. Two days later, her mother finally receives a bed, on which she is dying right now.

No city medicine

Doctors are pretty sure she has the coronavirus, but they still haven't been able to do the tests, officially for lack of diagnostic kits. It wouldn't make much difference to her mother's condition, as no treatment is currently available. We can only attack the symptoms, by intubating patients who are having trouble breathing, for example. But without proof that she has been infected with the virus, the state does not pay for medical expenses. Chen Wantao’s family has already spent 20,000 yuan (about 2,600 euros), not including their hospital stay, since January 29.

In Hubei, the curfew also causes collateral damage. Chen Xiaofeng, 53, has breast cancer. She lives in Huangshi, about 100 km west of Wuhan, where she goes every week for treatment and to buy her medicine. But his city was quarantined in turn on January 29. When she turned to her city hospital with her prescription, the staff kept away: people who went to Wuhan are no longer received at Huangshi hospital. "It has been seven days since I went to Wuhan, and I had no symptoms. The nurse told me that the hospital does not accept any patients who have passed through Wuhan, said Ms. Chen. My condition has already deteriorated, it's a matter of life and death! There is no more public transport, I am too weak to walk to the hospital, and now I am afraid of being infected if I go there. "

When China trumpets that it is capable of building a hospital in ten days, the situations of Chen Wantao and Chen Xiaofeng (unrelated) illustrate the dismay of the Chinese people faced with the disease. In this country where city medicine does not exist, the public hospital is at the heart of the healthcare system. Whether they have cancer or simple bronchitis, this is where the Chinese go. In huge public hospitals where patients most often feel lost. "You should never go to the hospital alone," says a mother from Beijing. It takes at least two to avoid losing your place on the waiting list while running right and left to do the different steps. "

 

"Many bribes"

“The problem is that this money is misused. China has made great strides in medical infrastructure - but not enough in personnel. We lack qualified professionals. Partly because the hospital is a public structure and doctors are paid very little, "said Cai Jiangnan, president of the China Healthcare Innovation Platform Academy.

The result: "There are many bribes and potential conflicts of interest between the medical profession and the patients," he said. To increase their income and that of the structure that employs them, it is common knowledge that many doctors tend to prescribe too many drugs. Hence the distrust of patients towards hospital staff, which is reflected in particular in a high number of acts of violence against the medical profession. Between the search at the entrance to the hospital and an alarm bracelet that allows healthcare personnel to call the police in the event of a problem, each structure seeks the best way to deal with it.

In addition, getting treatment is expensive. While 95% of patients have basic coverage, the cost of rest is prohibitive: 36% of medical costs are paid by Chinese patients, according to WHO figures in 2017.

It is not uncommon for someone with a serious illness to borrow money from loved ones for treatment. For Cai Jiangnan, the solution lies in the creation of generalist "family doctors" and in a larger share granted to the private hospital sector which, for the moment, plays a secondary role in the provision of care. "If health is a priority of the government, its ideology pushes it to see health only as a public good", deplores this specialist. Like SARS, the current epidemic is likely to force China to rethink its health care system.

 

By Frédéric Lemaître et Simon Leplâtre. Published 02/03/2020 at 11h13, updated at 15h37

IMO it gives quite an interesting view to the problem of how reliable are the numbers we have... From what I read in the article, not very much and the total numbers are much higher than what we can expect.

Another point which I find VERY worrysome is the fact that if you are not officially diagnosed by the hospital then the treatment will not be taken by / reimbursed by the Healthcare system. How many people don't go back to the hospital after having been discouraged a first time?

 

Not very auspicious for the future.

Edited by Cora_Lie
Fixed the article text which was in french
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