corona virus

[Bombastinator]

2 hours ago, Donut417 said:

Hope they never need that again. We killed our manufacturing. I guess the new trade deal with China is really going to screw our manufacturing sector pretty hardcore. 

I know very little about the latest trade deal.  I’ve heard part of the purpose was to give the Ag sector a break.  I understand not much of one.  It would make sense. Manufacturing is an urban thing.

[GoldenLag]

7 hours ago, dizmo said:

There simply aren't enough soldiers or equipment for the Allied forces to have won without them.

Who says the allies was the major contributor during the war?

 

The eastern front was allready falling before D-day happened. And the UK bought equipment from the US, while having the aircraft industry and oil supply to run it. 

 

Lets not also forget that while the UK itself did not have surplus troops after D-day. They still had the commonwealth forces. 

 

The war would certainly be a lot longer. Probably stretching into 1948 if you include Japan. 

[Bombastinator]

3 minutes ago, mr moose said:

I saw an interview were he said he thought it was fake and that's why he bit into it.   Sharon said they had to take him to the hospital for shots.   Either way I think the story is worth it's weight in gold, if it was real he's lucky he didn't end up really sick and if it was fake he's got plenty of miles out of it. 

 

And yes, boiled with pheasant eggs and spotted dick for dessert. 

 

 

I’ve got a theory about the british boiled food thing.  Britain is short on trees.  They were fed to cows mostly I understand.  Back when the cuisine was being developed  The major fuel sources were coal and peat.  Neither of them is what one might think of as a flavor enhancer.  Boiling makes a lot of sense.  There is a lid.  A lot of food stereotypes are like that.  Countries with spicy food are hot countries with rodent problems.  Rodents don’t like peppers.  Hawaii and a lot of small islands cook with a lot of canned goods.  Food production issues.  America is known for frozen, bagged and over processed stuff.  Big distances to transport food.  It’s all mashing together now of course.  The hot restraunt  in town a few years ago was a Mexican/Chinese place.

[atxcyclist]

 

41 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

I actually am an American.  I just don’t think pretending does any good.  The French are famous for making these exact same sorts of noises and are made fun of for it for the exact same reasons.  The American thing is irrelevant.   The original issue was inaccurately badmouthing the Chinese response to the epidemic situation.  I think the epidemic situation is not a nationalist issue.  It’s a world issue.  These things are becoming more prevelant.

There was nothing unfair or inaccurate about my criticism of the wet markets though, it's the same criticism the scientific/medical community has about them. It's been fairly well-established that they are where these pandemics are spreading. African people were digging up infected bodies and taking them home while the Ebola crisis was going on a while back. It may be cultural, but that doesn't mean it cannot be looked at as irresponsible or wrong. Even though we have some anti-vaccination people here in the US, I personally have the ability to provide my viewpoint on any and all of these things. Regardless of how highly the Australian guy thinks of himself, he's not infallible, nor does he have any business demanding I shouldn't have a viewpoint. 

 

 

[Bombastinator]

11 minutes ago, atxcyclist said:

 

There was nothing unfair or inaccurate about my criticism of the wet markets though, it's the same criticism the scientific/medical community has about them. It's been fairly well-established that they are where these pandemics are spreading. African people were digging up infected bodies and taking them home while the Ebola crisis was going on a while back. It may be cultural, but that doesn't mean it cannot be looked at as irresponsible or wrong. Even though we have some anti-vaccination people here in the US, I personally have the ability to provide my viewpoint on any and all of these things. Regardless of how highly the Australian guy thinks of himself, he's not infallible, nor does he have any business demanding I don't have a viewpoint. 

 

 

There was. At least a bit.  Mostly that it’s out of date.  Or at least it was over done.  In any case that itself wasn’t the real issue.  It was the superiority thing. 

[mr moose]

5 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

I’ve got a theory about the british boiled food thing.  Britain is short on trees.  They were fed to cows mostly I understand.  Back when the cuisine was being developed  The major fuel sources were coal and peat.  Neither of them is what one might think of as a flavor enhancer.  Boiling makes a lot of sense.  There is a lid.  A lot of food stereotypes are like that.  Countries with spicy food are hot countries with rodent problems.  Rodents don’t like peppers.  Hawaii and a lot of small islands cook with a lot of canned goods.  Food production issues.  America is known for frozen, bagged and over processed stuff.  Big distances to transport food.  It’s all mashing together now of course.  The hot restraunt  in town a few years ago was a Mexican/Chinese place.

They cut down a lot of trees in early development of buildings and they turned many trees into charcoal for smelting iron then they turned what was left into railway carriages and stations.  It wasn't until  1709 that the English successfully replaced charcoal (made from lots of trees) with coke (made from plentiful coal).  I guess with farming needing cleared land and land having been cleared over the previous several thousand years (even before roman settlement) that they wouldn't have much left to smoke their roasts with.  Which is a shame because a decent smoked roast shits all over a boiled ham.

[Bombastinator]

8 minutes ago, mr moose said:

They cut down a lot of trees in early development of buildings and they turned many trees into charcoal for smelting iron then they turned what was left into railway carriages and stations.  It wasn't until  1709 that the English successfully replaced charcoal (made from lots of trees) with coke (made from plentiful coal).  I guess with farming needing cleared land and land having been cleared over the previous several thousand years (even before roman settlement) that they wouldn't have much left to smoke their roasts with.  Which is a shame because a decent smoked roast shits all over a boiled ham.

They did get their boiling down quite well though.  haggis is the best boil-in-bag grain mush ever. Then there’s spoon left of lamb, and all those puddings.  If it’s got to be boiled cook british.  They worked on it.

[atxcyclist]

5 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

There was. At least a bit.  Mostly that it’s out of date.  Or at least it was over done.  In any case that itself wasn’t the real issue.  It was the superiority thing. 

Except right out of the gate in the discussion, he told me that I have no business having a viewpoint or criticism, because there are people in my country that did something wrong and I have to be treated like part of that group. So yes, I reminded him what 'loud, hypocritical' Americans have done for the world, and how we've done many things better than China as well.

[mr moose]

19 minutes ago, atxcyclist said:

Except right out of the gate in the discussion, he told me that I have no business having a viewpoint or criticism, because there are people in my country that did something wrong and I have to be treated like part of that group. So yes, I reminded him what 'loud, hypocritical' Americans have done for the world, and how we've done many things better than China as well.

It's too bad that you didn't say that in the beginning in stead of this:

 

 

Quote

I get the implication, but let's be real: There were a few really stupid and vocal people, like bimbo actress Jenny McCarthy, that conned some gullible rubes into thinking vaccines caused autism. It got very publicly debunked, and now only the dumbest people might still believe that here. During all of this, the medical community in the United States has continuously been for vaccinations, and you'd be hard-pressed to find someone that isn't vaccinated here outside of some little insane communities. I still have my original vaccination records in my safe, just in case there's ever a question.

First thing you did is play down all the issues that,  if we are serious about this, are just as dangerous as anything in china.

 

Then you said:

 

Quote

Meanwhile, Chinese "doctors" are selling ointments to cure cancer, and tiger genitals as a substitute for Viagra. Beyond the medical quackery, China has things like the wet market where possible pandemics are starting. So, regardless of whatever comedy zinger that Twitter dude was going for, I'm going to very satisfyingly drop the mic over here.

Making wild accusations about their doctors and over stating their markets role in the outbreak. 

 

Since then all I tried to do is point out that you have the same quackery in your medical system as you claim there is in the china, I even posted evidence to that effect, but you went all patriotic and tried to make this all about the US versus the world.   In fact I don't think you have once claimed this is just your point without making huge claims about how great the US is in respect to what it has done for the world.  All of which I keep pointing out has nothing to do with the issue.   EDIT: just to clarify this bit,  if you don't want to be associated with other people in your country then stop using it to support your opinions.

 

Now there have been several people try to tell you where the virus came from, the root cause and how it has nothing to do with their doctors or their markets or their medical system.  

 

Would you hold the same view that their culture is somehow flawed if the issue was salmonella from under cooked chicken?  Because 143,000 people get that in the US every year and 30 die from it every year.  do you blame the markets and the government for not regulating how you cook your chicken?  of course not.  This whole issue has nothing to do with regulation, doctors or government policy.   It is purely an issue with people doing stupid things.  And given every country has people that do stupid things like this then it is hypocritical to blame china or their culture when the western culture does so many dumb things too.

 

You see, I am not saying you can't have an opinion, I am just telling you it is a hypocritical one. After all isn't that the point of free speech?  you are allowed to say what you want and I am allowed to  call it unfair, hypocritical or ill thought out.

 

 

 

 

[Canoe]

On 1/27/2020 at 9:17 AM, Andreas Lilja said:

How would a simple nurse know how many people are infected anyhow. Isn't that a bit over the pay grade? 

No kidding.

And it's unlikely the nurse works at all Wuhan hospitals.

Although trading info is rather common here, it's likely there too, to a degree possible given the controls.

Like here, the problem is, what's the quality of the info they trade.

 

There's an issue with verifying such videos. Are they actually from there, are they providing accurate information, or is it from one of the China-bashing sources. For example, most videos I've seen from on-the-ground are obviously "true", and horrifying, but there's no context nor scale, which would provide a lot more value (and likely put the original source or those that pass it on at risk). A number are suspect as they're just faces and claims. A few are posed. One I saw was obviously an enactment (scooter coming up road in country), with someone on the camera who was skillfully posing as a casual in-the-moment event, but when the three actors started into their act, the camera man forgot to make it a casual phone capture, and fell into some very skillful camera handling (giving away the stale contrived acting). Oops.

 

We're seeing a huge incidence of mis-understanding of the scientific reports. And most info is limited, unverified/unverifiable, or interim info/guidance subject to update as better data is available. Some didn't understand, many didn't take the time to read adequately, and a few trolls. A field day for conspiracy addicts of various types. A lot of people on twitter (and likely others) need to step back, take a deep breath, then read things again before they embarrass themselves and post without their brain adequately engaged.

 

***

 

It's interesting to see an overview of the numbers from agencies of Confirmed Cases, Suspected Cases and Severe Cases. The totals are astounding.

 

And there are persistent accounts, allegedly from Wuhan, of ill people sent home without being tested (to be cared for by their families - huge transfer risk) and of Wuhan hospitals limiting the number of tests they will do in a day. All indicating a significant likelihood of under-detection and hence under-reporting of cases.

 

Given the huge number of cases, and a low number of Deaths, along with a low number of Recovered, the numbers suggest a very prolonged illness. I feel the story of how many Deaths will result is far from over.

 

 

 

 

 

***

 

This is based on numbers from Jan 29th, but it illustrates why Wuhan in Hubei is so overwhelmed.

 

 

***

 

[Bombastinator]

On 2/1/2020 at 10:45 AM, atxcyclist said:

Except right out of the gate in the discussion, he told me that I have no business having a viewpoint or criticism, because there are people in my country that did something wrong and I have to be treated like part of that group. So yes, I reminded him what 'loud, hypocritical' Americans have done for the world, and how we've done many things better than China as well.

Which happened later.

 

On 2/1/2020 at 1:05 PM, Canoe said:

Spoiler

 

It's interesting to see an overview of the numbers from agencies of Confirmed Cases, Suspected Cases and Severe Cases. The totals are astounding.

 

And there are persistent accounts, allegedly from Wuhan, of ill people sent home without being tested (to be cared for by their families - huge transfer risk) and of Wuhan hospitals limiting the number of tests they will do in a day. All indicating a significant likelihood of under-detection and hence under-reporting of cases.

 

Given the huge number of cases, and a low number of Deaths, along with a low number of Recovered, the numbers suggest a very prolonged illness. I feel the story of how many Deaths will result is far from over.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Spoiler

 

Sounds like a lot more personnel and resources are needed there and this is going to get worse before it gets better. More care and isolation wards need to be set up so they don’t have to send people home.  This may require world level resources.

[williamcll]

Oh yeah, Healthcare in China has been struggling to develop the past decade, no doubt about that. In the mainland, private hospitals are often worse than public ones (A distant uncle of mine was once successfully treated of stroke in a public hospital for example). The lessons from SARS weren't really learned enough. However I think the current progression of quarantine is good enough to stop the spread to even greater levels. Not every country in the world can just shut down a whole city to stop spreading. 

 

Also regarding the numbers. Between Jan 22nd to 28th, not counting people with the virus, there were also around 75000 people reported with fever in WuHan but could not be confirmed to be carrying the CoronaVirus, that's the real reason the government is rapidly building a prefab hospital to treat all the infected.

[SpikeSpiegel]

Land reform, where estates had been taken from rich landowners and redistributed to the peasants had taken place shortly after the communists had come to power. Collectivization, where peasants lost their own pieces of land and instead worked for wages on land owned by the state had also begun to take place. Mao believed this was not enough to expand both agricultural and industrial production and instead introduced the second five-year plan in 1958. This would become known as the ‘Great Leap Forward’.

[Canoe]

5 hours ago, williamcll said:

... However I think the current progression of quarantine is good enough to stop the spread to even greater levels. ...

... there were also around 75000 people reported with fever in WuHan but could not be confirmed to be carrying the CoronaVirus, ...

 

Those two points of yours do not add up.

Go to the CDC site and check out what's necessary for Home Care to prevent Transfer of 2019-nCoV. Sending infected people home to live with others in typically small/close living spaces, is almost sure to Transfer to the rest of the household.

 

It's been more than five days since the more strict shutdown/quarantine has taken place. For infections in January, the incubation period is believed to be 5.2 days. Yet Confirmed cases continue to climb, in Hubei and the combined numbers for the rest of mainland China. Hubei is explainable due to the high number of Suspected infected who are at home, plus those turned away - there's a backlog in Hubei. But the rest of the provinces, at least collectively, aren't showing any meaningful Recovered (and thankfully only 10 Deaths).

 

Here's Confirmed Cases for January 21 through to 31, plus interim numbers for February 1st.

 

Source: 2019-nCoV Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE, with their data from: WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC and DXY.

 

5 hours ago, williamcll said:

... the real reason the government is rapidly building a prefab hospital to treat all the infected.

Multiple reports that the seven Wuhan hospitals can't keep up, turning people away, sending people home, restricting the number of tests.

• They're adding 1,000 beds and then another 1,300 beds.
• That might handle the Severe cases, once all are detected. Any extra beds can fill with simple ARI for treatment and isolation.
• It won't magically be able to treat all that need treatment. Not even isolate those with more than mild symptoms who are higher transfer risks for Droplet, Direct and Indirect Transmission.

 

 

[Bombastinator]

On 2/1/2020 at 10:22 PM, Canoe said:

Spoiler

 

Those two points of yours do not add up.

Go to the CDC site and check out what's necessary for Home Care to prevent Transfer of 2019-nCoV. Sending infected people home to live with others in typically small/close living spaces, is almost sure to Transfer to the rest of the household.

 

It's been more than five days since the more strict shutdown/quarantine has taken place. For infections in January, the incubation period is believed to be 5.2 days. Yet Confirmed cases continue to climb, in Hubei and the combined numbers for the rest of mainland China. Hubei is explainable due to the high number of Suspected infected who are at home, plus those turned away - there's a backlog in Hubei. But the rest of the provinces, at least collectively, aren't showing any meaningful Recovered (and thankfully only 10 Deaths).

 

Here's Confirmed Cases for January 21 through to 31, plus interim numbers for February 1st.

 

Source: 2019-nCoV Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE, with their data from: WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC and DXY.

 

Multiple reports that the seven Wuhan hospitals can't keep up, turning people away, sending people home, restricting the number of tests.

• They're adding 1,000 beds and then another 1,300 beds.
• That might handle the Severe cases, once all are detected. Any extra beds can fill with simple ARI for treatment and isolation.
• It won't magically be able to treat all that need treatment. Not even isolate those with more than mild symptoms who are higher transfer risks for Droplet, Direct and Indirect Transmission.

 

 

 

Still growing. Not good.  An out of control fire.

Edited February 11, 2020 by LogicalDrm

[Canoe]

The 2019-nCoV Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

• No longer states the date nor time that their data was last updated.
• The Total Confirmed Cases does not match the spreadsheet that is supposed to be the source data. It's 4 pm EST; the spreadhseet time is 10 am.

That dashboard is now unreliable as a data source.

[WkdPaul]

5 hours ago, williamcll said:

Oh yeah, Healthcare in China has been struggling to develop the past decade, no doubt about that. In the mainland, private hospitals are often worse than public ones [...]

Strangely enough, that's one consistent thing with China (except maybe for dentists?). Private places are often worse than their public counterpart (but not always), even schools ... But like I said, I never had any experience with public dentist in China, we always go to a private dentist practice because it's owned by one of my wife's uncle (that's another thing in China, knowing someone, even with public offices and practices, will always put you in front of everyone regardless of priority, that's why we always go to a specific hospital in Shanghai, my father in law was a high level manager at that hospital and we never have to wait to see a doctor).

[Deli]

7 minutes ago, Tony Tony Chopper said:

If been washing my hands least 10 times a day since this outbreak, hope there some good news soon although i fear the worst.

I wonder when will we start seeing people around us wearing face masks.

[Bombastinator]

16 hours ago, Donut417 said:

Hope they never need that again. We killed our manufacturing. I guess the new trade deal with China is really going to screw our manufacturing sector pretty hardcore. 

Thinking about this one it seems to be a standard thing as empires decline.  Britain used to be the manufacturing masters.  America did to Britain more or less exactly what China did to the US.  So did we do it to ourselves or did Britain do it to itself?  I’m not sure it could even have been stopped in either case.  There has been a certain give an inch take a mile problem that needs to be dealt with.  Also China is dirtying itself even faster than Britain or the US did and if history is a guide it’s going to cause big problems they’re going to have to deal with.  We actually accidentally set a river on fire in the 1960’s.  There’s a pop song about it.

[WkdPaul]

6 minutes ago, Deli said:

I wonder when will we start seeing people around us wearing face masks.

Mother in law had appointments at the hospital this week (yes, they're in Canada) and my wife went with her using the subway, people were actively moving out of the way and kinda freaking out when they were seeing a senior Chinese woman walking around with a mask ! She wasn't infected with anything and was just protecting herself  because of her own frail health, like she always does

[Deli]

17 minutes ago, Tony Tony Chopper said:

 

We will be out of masks soon cos China is buying them all, they need all the supplies they can get to keep this under control.

I just check deonlinedrogist and medicamarkt. The surgical mask is indeed sold out. There are still places I can buy them but with inflated price, like €45 for 50pc for the 2-layer mask.

[Bombastinator]

47 minutes ago, Tony Tony Chopper said:

 

We will be out of masks soon cos China is buying them all, they need all the supplies they can get to keep this under control.

This happened with copper and closed cell foam sheeting too during the building boom.  Foam was so expensive I couldn’t line my garage underfloor with it.

[Guest]

54 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

Mother in law had appointments at the hospital this week (yes, they're in Canada) and my wife went with her using the subway, people were actively moving out of the way and kinda freaking out when they were seeing a senior Chinese woman walking around with a mask ! She wasn't infected with anything and was just protecting herself  because of her own frail health, like she always does

Yep, this goes inline with the various stages of "freaking out" and "these people are asian so they must be a vector of sickness"...

 

More and more in major cities whether you're Vietnamese, Korean, Philippino, Chinese or whichever asian nationality, people are going to look at you suspiciously, refuse to buy their bread from them, refuse tu use their cashier, etc.

Makes me really sad, furious, disgusted all that at the same time.

 

I was in the bus with a friend of mine, Chinese, with her son, she didn't go to China for the past 6 months, and people in the bus refused to sit next or around her and her son. Just makes me mad at people's stupidity...

 

[Deli]

5 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Yep, this goes inline with the various stages of "freaking out" and "these people are asian so they must be a vector of sickness"...

 

More and more in major cities whether you're Vietnamese, Korean, Philippino, Chinese or whichever asian nationality, people are going to look at you suspiciously, refuse to buy their bread from them, refuse tu use their cashier, etc.

Makes me really sad, furious, disgusted all that at the same time.

 

I was in the bus with a friend of mine, Chinese, with her son, she didn't go to China for the past 6 months, and people in the bus refused to sit next or around her and her son. Just makes me mad at people's stupidity...

 

My boss asked me last week if I've any Chinese relatives visit me from the mainland recently.

 

If i replied "yes". They probably would ask me to stay home for two weeks.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Tony Tony Chopper said:

We will be out of masks soon cos China is buying them all, they need all the supplies they can get to keep this under control.

Nope... The prisoners in chinese prisons are put to contribution and they are manufacturing masks round the clock.

 

Why would they buy the mask from the US when they can make them themselves for free?

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3048249/china-coronavirus-hong-kong-prisoners-work