Dr Su will present Zen 2 and Navi at Computex 2019 (May 27th)

[Humbug]

 

[wasab]

AMD has a process lead over Intel in the first time ever 

[Humbug]

21 minutes ago, wasab said:

AMD has a process lead over Intel in the first time ever 

Yeah and it also coincides with a period in which

-AMD has a superior more scalable architecture, 

-Intel cannot produce enough to meet demand which means some vendors have no choice but to turn to AMD.

If it had happened during bulldozer era it would not have mattered. This time it's as if AMD wrote the script for this LOL, they could not have asked for a better combination of circumstances.

 

This period will not last forever, so in the next two years AMD must make as much money as possible and also secure their future design wins with R&D and secure all their channel partnerships with industry partners so that when Intel does make a comeback they don't lost share. They have to avoid what happened when Intel came back after the Athlon64 era.

[mr moose]

2 hours ago, Humbug said:

This period will not last forever, so in the next two years AMD must make as much money as possible and also secure their future

Its just a shame they don't have the same level of confidence from network admins as Intel.  If companies were confident they could upgrade fleet systems and servers to AMD with little risk of down time they'd be able to capitalise a lot more.

[Stefan Payne]

9 hours ago, wasab said:

AMD has a process lead over Intel in the first time ever 

Not entirely true.

IIRC there was a small lead back in the 90s, for example the copper interconnect stuff.

 

This time its not a small advantage that Intel can counter tomorrow. Its a big one.

And Intel might not be able to keep up.

[Stefan Payne]

9 hours ago, Humbug said:

Yeah and it also coincides with a period in which

-AMD has a superior more scalable architecture, 

-Intel cannot produce enough to meet demand which means some vendors have no choice but to turn to AMD.

If it had happened during bulldozer era it would not have mattered. This time it's as if AMD wrote the script for this LOL, they could not have asked for a better combination of circumstances.

That sounds like AMD in the mid 90s...

 

Quote

This period will not last forever

I'm not sure about that.

It all depends on TSMC and how good their processes are and how much Intel can keep up.

Also how much Performance is lying dormant in the Zen Architecture.

There seems to be a lot of things you can do to improve the Performance.

For example the latency is rather huge, maybe work a bit on the Cache architecture, though that's gotten better with Zen. It was a desaster on Bulldozer.

Quote

 so in the next two years AMD must make as much money as possible and also secure their future design wins with R&D and secure all their channel partnerships with industry partners so that when Intel does make a comeback they don't lost share. They have to avoid what happened when Intel came back after the Athlon64 era.

AMD doesn't need to do the same bullshit they did when K8 was launched.

Basiically they didn't start improving on K8 and only slightly improved it. That was their mistake.

If they worked hard on the K8 design and dramatically improved it, including a 4 Core Version, it would have been better.

 

The mistake was the AM2 K8. That should never have happened. They should have done something better than that...

Then they could potentially have kept up with Core 2.

 

If you want to, you can call the Phenom an improved K8 (wich in turn you can call an improved K7)...

 

But right now it doesn't look like AMD does the same mistake as with the K8 back in the day, when they didn't do anything to improve the Chips Performance or as you call it today "IPC".

[Humbug]

1 hour ago, Stefan Payne said:

I'm not sure about that.

It all depends on TSMC and how good their processes are and how much Intel can keep up.

I mean that right now AMD has both the process advantage via TSMC and they also have superior technology which allows them to make big powerful high core count CPUs using infinity fabric interconnects much cheaper and with better yields than Intel can. Right now Intel has no answer, they just have no way to make 16+ core CPUs as easily as AMD can because they don't have a technology to overcome poor yields.

 

But over the years Intel will develop that ability too, it may take some time but it will happen. And it terms of fabrication both companies will start approaching the limits of silicon.

 

I think what matter is that AMD should secure the right industry partnerships. They need to be very close with to all the big data centers in the world, to all the laptop vendors and various retail channels having good supply, contracts and understandings with all these guys so that everyone in the channel views them as a very reliable partner. So that when Intel comes back with better CPUs they can leverage that to keep Intel at bay, obviously in addition to launching better future products...

1 hour ago, Stefan Payne said:

The mistake was the AM2 K8. That should never have happened. They should have done something better than that...

Then they could potentially have kept up with Core 2.

 

If you want to, you can call the Phenom an improved K8 (wich in turn you can call an improved K7)...

 

But right now it doesn't look like AMD does the same mistake as with the K8 back in the day, when they didn't do anything to improve the Chips Performance or as you call it today "IPC".

Ya you are right- it seems to be a good thing that Lisa Su has done is that she has like 2 or 3 CPU architecture teams working at the same time and they leapfrog each other with Zen 2, Zen 3 etc... So far they are executing well on that.

 

I remember when AMD launched the bulldozer fx-8150. It was such a big disappointment. But then a year later they launched the improved piledriver fx-8350. It still didn't beat Intel but at the time I was thinking this is a good improvement in under a year- it had slightly better IPC, clocked slightly higher and was a bit more efficient. I thought that if AMD keeps up by releasing new stuff like this every year on the desktop they could close the gap with Intel.

 

But then they just stopped, after piledriver there was just nothing in terms of high performance efforts... It seems like they just gave up and said 'this is not gonna work, bulldozer uarch is a turd so lets put all our eggs  into project Zen R&D and just survive for a few years until then'.

[mr moose]

9 hours ago, Humbug said:

But over the years Intel will develop that ability too, it may take some time but it will happen. And it terms of fabrication both companies will start approaching the limits of silicon.

 

I think what matter is that AMD should secure the right industry partnerships.

This is it right here, they have to make hay while the sun shines (as do all companies), And while the stars might be lining up for them, the biggest reason they have to capitalise fast is because Intel have shown several times now that they don't need a Die shrink to be competitive.   Even when they were caught out with the initial Ryzen release it didn't take them long too have an answer, then when the zen+ hit the shelves Intel answered again with a another 14++++nm  response.  It is mostly speculation that Intel won't be able to keep up with Ryzen 2 so if AMD do have a lead for any length of time they need to pound the market hard.

 

 

[pas008]

1 hour ago, mr moose said:

This is it right here, they have to make hay while the sun shines (as do all companies), And while the stars might be lining up for them, the biggest reason they have to capitalise fast is because Intel have shown several times now that they don't need a Die shrink to be competitive.   Even when they were caught out with the initial Ryzen release it didn't take them long too have an answer, then when the zen+ hit the shelves Intel answered again with a another 14++++nm  response.  It is mostly speculation that Intel won't be able to keep up with Ryzen 2 so if AMD do have a lead for any length of time they need to pound the market hard.

 

 

Agreed amd needs to jump far ahead with ryzen 2/3000

So they can charge more per chip

They still need to pay the middle man though and under cut their silicon overhead just to compete

Hopefully they are dabbling in quantum which we already know Intel is

Amd needs focus on branding their name even on consoles

 

They have the potential and cult following but seems like they continuously miss the means on branding

Itd prolly make investors happy too

Which is a big deal

 

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