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Canoe

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  1. Agree
    Canoe got a reaction from Bartholomew in COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING   
    China's NHC daily update for March 26, 2020
    This is where I get my daily data for China, and apply it to the day it refers to. CSSE and others show the prior day's data for china... And the CSSE's git data still applies China's data to the day after it actually applies to. But then they've got corrupt data in that, and multiple notices of such reported on git, but the data still remains uncorrected. I had to give up using their data files.
     
    Google translate.
    Interestingly, the english wording sometimes changes if you drop in the whole text from above, vs by paragraph or by sentence.
     
    At 04:00 on March 26, 54 newly diagnosed imported cases were reported (17 in Shanghai, 12 in Guangdong, 4 in Beijing, 4 in Tianjin, 3 in Inner Mongolia, 3 in Zhejiang, 3 in Fujian, and 2 in Shandong. , 2 in Yunnan, 1 in Liaoning, 1 in Jiangsu, 1 in Sichuan, and 1 in Shaanxi). As of 24:00 on March 26, a total of 595 overseas confirmed confirmed cases had been reported.
     
    ***
     
    The first case is occurring widely now across the globe. Which is why Confirmed numbers are now "at least as high as". Very short sighted as identification of clusters and the need for distancing/lockdown measures is delayed, hence needs to be significantly harsher. Some places are doing so just to keep reported numbers down for political or tourist optics... So far, that has blown up in each place that has been tried. Just check the numbers for Italy and the U.S..
    Other places, due to a limited testing capacity, the test is conserved for others if there will be no clinical benefit for the treatment of that case.
     
    The second, hiding deaths, is also known in a number of places. Some cities or provinces in China were caught doing the same.
     
    The first case can be gotten around where deaths are reasonably reported and the infection is sufficiently presenting such that Deaths are accumulating in (hate to use this word) reasonable numbers. Using what the expected CFR should eventually come in around, Deaths can be used to calculate what the size of the infected population that is producing the reported deaths.
    For example, Italy's Deaths as of today are reported as 9,134. Using a CFR of 3.6% for a highly stressed health care system, and deaths lag, the expected infected Confirmed population size would be in the order of 422,000. They report 86,498 Confirmed. Their people are paying a huge price for the central government halting the local authorities' testing and tracing contacts early in the outbreak there.
  2. Like
    Canoe got a reaction from WkdPaul in COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING   
    "Did people listen to that warning."
    "Basically no."
     
     
     
     
  3. Informative
    Canoe got a reaction from WkdPaul in COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING   
    Global distribution of COVID-19 cases, March 26, 2020 EOD UTC
     

     
     
    just the scaled sizes
     
     
     

  4. Informative
    Canoe got a reaction from WkdPaul in COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING   
  5. Informative
    Canoe got a reaction from greenhorn in COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING   
    A super-spreading event in India, similar to what South Korea had with that one woman
     
     
  6. Funny
  7. Informative
    Canoe got a reaction from porina in Determining the source of low frequency noise   
    This could be rather difficult.
    Low frequencies can travel some distance from their source before people hear them.
    Like someone hating the boom of the stereo from the apartment above, but up to their door and no stereo, no boom.
    Offending stereo was three floors up.
     
    Given the harmonic to line mains, for safety you may want to do a walk about of your building to see where the transformer is and where the electrical line comes in. Can you detect any noise near or far from the transformer. A call to the provider may be in order. 
     
    Sound travels through air easily, but vibration can travel through solids well, until the vibration modulates a surface, like drywall or plaster, and generates sound from that vibration. Motors love making vibration noise as they start to go. Or the bearings of something they're driving.
     
  8. Funny
    Canoe got a reaction from SpaceGhostC2C in COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING   
    I can't remember if I've seen this here yet.
     

  9. Like
    Canoe got a reaction from handymanshandle in If you could start an airline, What Would You Do?   
    I remember when they used to try and feed you a meal on a one hour hop.
    What a cluster-f.
    My first flight across the atlantic, the plane had props.
    And the seats facing forward faced those seats facing backwards with a tabel in between.
  10. Informative
    Canoe got a reaction from Ithanul in COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING   
    ***
     
    Wow
    last to the stage, already on top
    USA tops Italy, and China, in Confirmed and Active cases.
    Deaths & Recovered lag.
     
    USA
    82,612 Confirmed, 79,564 Active, 1,184 Deaths, 1,864 Recovered
     
    China
    82,037 Confirmed, 4,450 Active, 3,293 Deaths, 74,202 Recovered
     
    Italy
    80,589 Confirmed, 62,013 Active, 8,215 Deaths, 10,361 Recovered
  11. Like
    Canoe got a reaction from Ithanul in COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING   
    Italy might be showing some promise.
    Doesn't look very encouraging with the first graph.
    The slope of the tangent looks encouraging in the log graph.
    The last four days could be interpreted as a six-day slope, maybe seven. Certainly better than its two-day slope.
     

     

     
     
    That's been a common theme with the researchers since shortly after January 21st.
    It's likely with us to stay. Be it cyclic or seasonal.
  12. Like
    Canoe got a reaction from WkdPaul in COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING   
    ***
     
    Wow
    last to the stage, already on top
    USA tops Italy, and China, in Confirmed and Active cases.
    Deaths & Recovered lag.
     
    USA
    82,612 Confirmed, 79,564 Active, 1,184 Deaths, 1,864 Recovered
     
    China
    82,037 Confirmed, 4,450 Active, 3,293 Deaths, 74,202 Recovered
     
    Italy
    80,589 Confirmed, 62,013 Active, 8,215 Deaths, 10,361 Recovered
  13. Informative
    Canoe got a reaction from mr moose in COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING   
    Not that uncommon.
    I used to get to NYC a number of times a year. I stayed in a spare room of a friend's friend in Queens.
    Heading back there off the N train after midnight, a car with a number of gentlemen pulled quietly up beside me and politely asked me who I was and where was I going. I'd been advised to expect this if I was out late, so as soon as I said my name, there was 'ah right', and told me who my friend was and who I was staying with. Police didn't do much in that area, as organized chrime controlled things and made sure the economy that fed them stayed healthy.
     
  14. Like
    Canoe got a reaction from LogicalDrm in COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING   
    Right.
    Exclude the comorbidities, and then all those people weren't actually suddenly presenting and filling up hospitals and field hospitals and dying.
    Reading the article sounds like a reporter cherry-picking.
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120443722/coronavirus-is-covid19-really-the-cause-of-all-the-fatalities-in-italy
    If you want to tally all the numbers, start reporting all of the Other Losses, those with conditions that couldn't get treated and die, or worsen such that they'll die later due to the progression of their disease into a lower survival rate.
  15. Funny
    Canoe got a reaction from handymanshandle in If you could start an airline, What Would You Do?   
    I think you've got the scale wrong somehow.
    None of those will fit in your three-car garage.
  16. Informative
    Canoe got a reaction from WkdPaul in COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING   
    pre-print
     
  17. Like
    Canoe got a reaction from Deli in COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING   
    You do realize that the U.S. has the
    most Active cases now more than 10,000 above Italy the most Active cases ever more than 6,000 above China at its peak the steepest rise in infections now the steepest rise in infections ever This is what you get from having testing delayed/denied/withheld/restricted so people go around infecting others without being aware they're ill, let alone contagious.
     
    Look at South Korea's curve. And they had a super-spreading event.
    That's likely the curve the U.S. would have had if they'd allowed the doctors to test sooner..
    Italy started out testing and tracing contacts, but their capital restricted that...
    Being forewarned doesn't help if those at the top ignore the warnings.
     
     

  18. Like
    Canoe got a reaction from Ithanul in COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING   
    You do realize that the U.S. has the
    most Active cases now more than 10,000 above Italy the most Active cases ever more than 6,000 above China at its peak the steepest rise in infections now the steepest rise in infections ever This is what you get from having testing delayed/denied/withheld/restricted so people go around infecting others without being aware they're ill, let alone contagious.
     
    Look at South Korea's curve. And they had a super-spreading event.
    That's likely the curve the U.S. would have had if they'd allowed the doctors to test sooner..
    Italy started out testing and tracing contacts, but their capital restricted that...
    Being forewarned doesn't help if those at the top ignore the warnings.
     
     

  19. Informative
    Canoe got a reaction from Ithanul in COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING   
    Italy has reported in for the day.
    The U.S. numbers are still growing.
     
    The U.S. now has more Active cases than Italy.

    Italy: 74,386 Confirmed, 57,521 Active, 7,503 Deaths.
    U.S.: 64,775 Confirmed (detections still behind), 63,472 Active, 910 Deaths.

    The ball park in Wuhan for hospital planning, based on observed cases, was 20% will be Severe, 18% of Severe will eventually succumb. That's 3.6%.

    Italy's Crude Fatality Rate went up again today. Now at 10.1%.
  20. Like
    Canoe got a reaction from WkdPaul in COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING   
    I missed this!
    FDA has approved using plasma of the Recovered! Somewhat.
    China was collecting and concentrating plasma from Recovered COVID-19 patients, with news and social media showing and asking Recovered patients to donate. In advanced stages of the disease, the immune system would start collapsing. It would usually pause, then recover slightly, pause briefly, then crash, with systemic collapse of the immune system, with multiple resulting attacks on organs throughout the body, then death. They found that if they gave an injection of anti-bodies concentrated from donated plasama - just as the immune system had its slight recovery and before the crash started (that timing was crucial - not too soon, not too late) - that would usually give the patient more time alive, which gave them a chance for their immune system to recover enough to be able to eventually fight off the disease.  Coincidence or not, shortly following announcing that practice, they reported that the course of the disease was now recognized as out to eight weeks, not the four weeks previously reported.  
  21. Informative
    Canoe got a reaction from WkdPaul in COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING   
    Italy has reported in for the day.
    The U.S. numbers are still growing.
     
    The U.S. now has more Active cases than Italy.

    Italy: 74,386 Confirmed, 57,521 Active, 7,503 Deaths.
    U.S.: 64,775 Confirmed (detections still behind), 63,472 Active, 910 Deaths.

    The ball park in Wuhan for hospital planning, based on observed cases, was 20% will be Severe, 18% of Severe will eventually succumb. That's 3.6%.

    Italy's Crude Fatality Rate went up again today. Now at 10.1%.
  22. Informative
    Canoe got a reaction from WkdPaul in COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING   
    This sounds much worse than it is. Probably.
    Oh wait. There is a bad part.
     
  23. Informative
    Canoe reacted to NumLock21 in COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING   
    There was a video of an interview with a doctor who performed an autopsies on a Covid-19 patient. That one was edited. Here is the full interview. 
     
     
     
     
  24. Like
    Canoe got a reaction from TechyBen in COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING   
    More accurately, what it can be. They had the advantage of being able to test large numbers, knew who 330K exposed individuals were ( with 9,000 of them reporting symptoms), and were determined and thorough in tracking contacts. Same for Japan. With adequate and early detection from testing, it is believed that modern western health care systems should be at or below 2.05%, more likely down to 1.0%, and possibly even down to 0.7%. Too many jurisdictions have missed that boat... deaths and huge numbers with their treatment costs.
  25. Agree
    Canoe got a reaction from TechyBen in COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING   
    a little off
    People are pre-symptomatic when in incubation, typically 5.2 days, ranging two days to 14 days, outliers from hours out to 27 days, possibly 29 days.
    Plus, it takes some times before there are enough cases with symptoms that make them seek care, and for those providing care to recognize that something new is going on. As in, when they thought "SARS like".  Then they have to figure out what, and how large, responding on the fly.
     
    The U.S. had advance notice that the U.S. was likely seeded, but orders from on high were to not test. It took a doctor in the NW to defy that order before the U.S. detected that there clusters in the U.S.. Even then testing was delayed, while those unware they were infected were going around infecting others.
     
    SARS-CoV-2 is just more contagious than others. Thank god it can't aerosol by coughing or sneezing.
     
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