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Morgan Everett

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  • Location
    Oxford, England
  • Occupation
    Classics Ph.D Student

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  1. I find the extent of the advertising a bit much. At least on desktop there's a Chrome extension that can filter it out, but unfortunately that doesn't help when I'm watching on my TV.
  2. You know no such thing: I was, and remain, quite sure of myself, something your strange views of both assessing investments and epistemology in general seem unlikely to shake. Rather, I didn't take your bet because it bore no relation to anything I had said (which you still seem not to have quite grasped). As for your triumphalism here, it's terribly misplaced, and reflects those views I've just referred to. Compare a gambler who considers selling all his worldly possessions, and then betting the proceeds on black. Suppose he's warned that to do so would not be a smart choice, but does so anyway. Does the fact that the gambler goes on to win make his prior choice a smart one? Of course not: he simply got lucky. Likewise, if he took our advice, and refused to gamble his money, and then black turned out to win after all, it would be puzzling indeed if he started crowing "Do you still think it would have been a bad choice?". Of course it would have! You are free to sell out of all your positions, and gamble those proceeds on what you speculate (for you've done little more) the price of Bitcoin will be next month, or next week. But that will remain a profoundly silly thing to do, and the fact that you don't do it suggests that perhaps you don't disagree after all.
  3. You say that is by my logic, but it’s no such thing, and you certainly don’t show as much. Only I’ve said no such thing. Eh? Investment decisions are based on far more than historical trends. I’m invested in Lucid Group because of its management team, its technological breakthroughs versus its key competitors, a sympathetic regulatory environment, and the fact that they address a key gap in market, among other reasons. Given that you seem unaware of even the basics of valuing a stock (as well as your peculiar views on predicting the future in general), perhaps your sarcasm should be at least temporarily retired. This is a view that seems strange indeed: you say that you can’t have evidence something will happen because it hasn’t happened yet. But why on earth would one agree to such a bizarre epistemic stance? Indeed, you don’t seem to agree with it yourself: you seem to assess it as being likely that Microsoft will exist tomorrow. But on what basis is that assessment if not evidence? Perhaps you mean that there’s no evidence beyond the fact that it’s existed for a long time hitherto. But that’s simply false, given what we know about the company; compare our predictions about the Sun’s future behaviour given what we know of it and other stars. It’s not simply that it’s existed for a long time, but that, given the way we understand stars work, it’s not going boom anytime soon. This suggests you haven’t being following what I’ve been saying carefully. What view of mine do you think an increase in the value of Bitcoin next month would refute?
  4. Guessing, I fear, is your problem. This depends wholly on the trend with which one is concerned and the time span in which it has occurred. Generalities such as this are pretty useless when it comes to deciding what asset to invest in: the Devil’s in the detail. In this case, you’re taking a short term trend in the value of Bitcoin and concluding (with quite some confidence) that that trend will continue into the near future. But what is your evidence that that trend will continue to be observed, and that there won’t be a significant drop in value, in-keeping with Bitcoin’s prior volatility? Is it? How have you made this determination? Bitcoin has previously lost half of its value in days, and in 6 weeks earlier this year, so we’re into a realm beyond that of mere possibility. Incidentally, what is your rationale for thinking this trend (in which Bitcoin periodically suffers very significant drops in its value very rapidly ) won’t be repeated next month, but your preferred trend will continue instead? Yes, I’m afraid it would.
  5. There's nothing inevitable about Bitcoin's increase in value, whether tomorrow or in a year's time. I wouldn't be surprised if it did the same, much as I wouldn't be surprised if its value halved by this time next month. If one were to sell out of all one's positions and buy Bitcoin alone, this would be an investment strategy akin to strolling into a casino and staking it all on black.
  6. To sell all of your stocks and put it all into Bitcoin (or for that matter any cryptocurrency). In this context, to generate a significantly greater than inflation return on one’s investment.
  7. That’s far from the smart choice, at least for most people’s goals.
  8. My system is similar to yours, and passed. Are you sure?
  9. Enabling the firmware TPM worked for me. I think some are being a touch alarmist...
  10. Actually, you simply do. I don’t know why this misconception is still doing the rounds.
  11. It usually stands for ambient occlusion. I’ve no idea why anyone would think 4K means you can turn that off. You’ll also still need AA, most likely.
  12. Real property just refers to land and what’s on it, roughly speaking. Gold is not real property, but personal property, like Bitcoin or stocks.
  13. I don’t really see the problem with this, though hopefully it can be turned off.
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