Will the current consoles(PS4&Xbone) really live 8 years?

[Edgar R. Zakarian]

As the title says.

 

the PS3 and Xbox 360 did a great job in terms of Graphics,

but as the new consoles arrived, you could feel the age. My PS3 was lagging some in the new dragonball Xenoverse, or whatever it's called lol. Not sure what Graphics or resolution it was even running at.

 

Sources say that the PS4 has a GPU comparing pretty well to radeon HD 7850. Will that really last out 8 years?

- Won't 4K become the "standard" and relatively cheaply available, just as 1080p screens are today, before 8 years?

 

So far they're handling the new games pretty well. And I know there will be optimization. But how far could it really go?

[Minzo]

They will hold up until the next generation comes out. I'm almost certain of it. But PCs will be way a head. As usual.

[Lolzious]

You can't really compare them to PCs since they can optimize games soo well for the hardware that will be running them.

Sony and Microsoft are not stupid, of course they will last 8 years.

[JebKerman]

something tells me they'll be dragged there kicking and screaming by console exclusive titles. they'll make it, but probably not as easily as previously.

[dizmo]

Will they last? Of course. People still play SNES. It just depends on whether they still make games for them, and that we cannot possibly know.

 

You can't really compare them to PCs since they can optimize games soo well for the hardware that will be running them.

Sony and Microsoft are not stupid, of course they will last 8 years.

Actually both companies have already stated that there will be a much shorter window between new console releases this time.

[QueenDemetria]

I sure hope not. The PS3/X360 were packing some serious hardware when they were released, and they were barely hanging on when the "next gens" got released. The jokes of the current gens though, it will be amazing if they last 3 years(from today). Unless if DX12 or GLNext(Vulkan) can sprinkle some magic on their AMD APU goodness(that's better than the current proprietary API's), I just don't see them aging as well.

[Sauron]

One could argue they're already outdated. If they really want to they'll still manage to have games running on them in 8 years, they'll just look like crap and run at sub hd resolutions at 30fps.

 

Just buy a scrapyard wars thrift machine 9000 with an r9 290 in it and it will hold up better than either console.

[PC POWER]

They need to focus on what they can do with peripherals in terms of motion sensing and virtual reality in the current gen, which will help determine the consoles longevity in this day and age.

[comicsansms]

The current gen consoles are potatos.

The PS2 and PS3 were good (Performance wise when they were released), the PS4 is shit!

[Praesi]

I hope not. But as long people get blindet by ridoculous exclusives.....

[nhatduy1611]

I think 6 years is more realistic. The ps4 is more powerful by a bit compare to the xbone so i think it will last longer.

[skywake]

As much as the enthusiast PC gaming crowd might not like it I think the console generations are going to continue to lengthen. Because frankly newer hardware increasingly offers diminishing returns. The jump to 4K will be the next jump for consoles but I think it'll be a while before it's cheap enough to do 4K that it'll be worth it for them. Frankly as someone who's also a Nintendo fan I'd rather they just make better use of the hardware that already exists rather than talking about another upgrade cycle.

[Edgar R. Zakarian]

As much as the enthusiast PC gaming crowd might not like it I think the console generations are going to continue to lengthen. Because frankly newer hardware increasingly offers diminishing returns. The jump to 4K will be the next jump for consoles but I think it'll be a while before it's cheap enough to do 4K that it'll be worth it for them. Frankly as someone who's also a Nintendo fan I'd rather they just make better use of the hardware that already exists rather than talking about another upgrade cycle.

This kind of makes sense. The jump to 4K could be when it's as cheap as 1080p systems are now. But Wonder when that is. I just don't think that we have to wait 8 years before that happens.

I can already buy a 40" 4K LCD TV for 5000DKK here. Almost same cost as a normal TV. As long as they're not curved.

 

https://fona.dk/philips-flat-tv-40pus6809-0600450790?utm_source=pricerunner&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=pricerunner

 

• 40" Ultra HD LED TV med 3D
• Ultra HD (3840x2160)
• Pixel Plus og Micro Dimming Pro
• 400Hz PMR og Natural Motion giver øget skarphed
• Smart TV
• Indbygget DLNA, WiFi og PVR funktion
• Kan indgå som server TV i din hjemmeopsætning
• 4 HDMI og 2 USB indgange inkl. 2 Aktive 3D briller
• DVB-T2/C/S2 MPEG4 tuner til egen antenne
• Effektforbrug 45W - Årligt 66Kwh - Energiklasse A+

I know it's Danish, but you Guys will understand.

 

4500 DKK ~660USD 

[SkilledRebuilds]

Not to be outdone by a new console, the competition will also release one at near the same time, to steal back some potential lost thunder.

 

ie: New Xbox = New Playstation, because.....companies do not wanna be outdone.

[JebKerman]

Not to be outdone by a new console, the competition will also release one at near the same time, to steal back some potential lost thunder.

 

ie: New Xbox = New Playstation, because.....companies do not wanna be outdone.

except Nintendo, who's off doing their own thing.

[skywake]

This kind of makes sense. The jump to 4K could be when it's as cheap as 1080p systems are now. But Wonder when that is. I just don't think that we have to wait 8 years before that happens.

I can already buy a 40" 4K LCD TV for 5000DKK here. Almost same cost as a normal TV. As long as they're not curved.

There's a difference between the availability of high resolution screens and the ability for cheap hardware that can drive it. As we saw with the 360 and PS3 and the rapid adoption of full 1080p TVs when they were barely ready for 720p. So regardless of how quickly 4K becomes mainstream I think we'll be very close to that "8 year" mark before 4K capable hardware is mainstream. Or at least cheap enough that they can sell it with a small profit at a price people will be willing to pay.

 

With that said, I just looked at a list of GPU release dates and their GFLOPs and did some basic back of the envelope calculations. Then made the assumption that a 970 spec GPU is "good enough" for 4K. Based on that rough estimate? The year I came up with was 2018 before it's cheap enough to be sold in the way the PS4 is being sold.

[SkilledRebuilds]

Once you kill off MSAA and use Post-Processing AA, the GTX970 equivalent should do 4K Medium-High details just fine. (Possibly still not anywhere near 50-60fps) More like a constant 30fps again, or low fidelity 60fps.

 

The 970m (Laptop part) is quite powerful for what it is, if that (or future equivalent) was in a console chassis it would be awesome for consoles to use that kind of power.

But that would also drive the price up too much IMO. (Altho, in time, not so much)

 

Then again, why not go the whole hog and use the GTX 980 non-M they they just crammed into notebooks. (Bar the price, this would be real nice)

[skywake]

I was making a rough estimate of how long before a "4K ready" GPU would be cheap enough to put in a console. Based on a rough estimate of GFLOPs and the time it takes for a spec to get cheap enough. Actually lets calculate this another way.

The PS4's GPU is about 1.8TFLOP, similar to the GTX660. When the PS4 launched that was around a $200US card. Currently $200US gets to a 960 (makes sense) which according to wiki is a 2.3TFLOP card. It's about two years between those two points and the raw power has increased by ~30%. Fair assessment? But we want to get to the 970 spec which is a 3.5TFLOP card. So we're at 2.3TFLOP, 2 more years (2017) is 3.0TFLOP, another 2 years (2019) is 3.9TFLOP which is maybe a bit too far.

 

So ~2018 they should be 4K ready at the price they want to sell these things at. Calculated it two ways and got the same answer.

[Edgar R. Zakarian]

There's a difference between the availability of high resolution screens and the ability for cheap hardware that can drive it. As we saw with the 360 and PS3 and the rapid adoption of full 1080p TVs when they were barely ready for 720p. So regardless of how quickly 4K becomes mainstream I think we'll be very close to that "8 year" mark before 4K capable hardware is mainstream. Or at least cheap enough that they can sell it with a small profit at a price people will be willing to pay.

 

With that said, I just looked at a list of GPU release dates and their GFLOPs and did some basic back of the envelope calculations. Then made the assumption that a 970 spec GPU is "good enough" for 4K. Based on that rough estimate? The year I came up with was 2018 before it's cheap enough to be sold in the way the PS4 is being sold.

Thank you- So PS4 was released November 2013. so bastically around 5-6 years.

[Sharkyx1]

I mean my 8800 can still play new games as long as they have aa dx10 renderer.

The current gen is much better suited with dealing with future technology. I mean ram amounts increased by 16-20x by the time the generation ended. I have a really hard time believing we will have 144-160 GB of system memory by the end of this gen. In 5 years we'll probably see more 16GB systems but 8GB will be more common and gaming cards will probably have 4GB. So it will be 12-20 GB to 8 on consoles vs 10 GB to 512mb from 2013

[Edgar R. Zakarian]

I mean my 8800 can still play new games as long as they have aa dx10 renderer.

The current gen is much better suited with dealing with future technology. I mean ram amounts increased by 16-20x by the time the generation ended. I have a really hard time believing we will have 144-160 GB of system memory by the end of this gen. In 5 years we'll probably see more 16GB systems but 8GB will be more common and gaming cards will probably have 4GB. So it will be 12-20 GB to 8 on consoles vs 10 GB to 512mb from 2013

GTX or GT? Or Ultra?

[michaelocarroll007]

You can't really compare them to PCs since they can optimize games soo well for the hardware that will be running them.

Sony and Microsoft are not stupid, of course they will last 8 years.

Consoles don't usually last 8 Years in the past it was much shorter, PS3 Xbox were exceptions to this and were very High end when they came out. I think Sony and microsoft have both hinted this generation will not last as long and sony even saying they might think about a higher Performance version of the PS4 in the future. i think were looking more around a 6 year run on theses by then 4k tvs and gaming and content will exist and right now 4k 30fps is pretty easily ran on a $300 dollar card so another 4 years of price decreases and maybe just maybe theyll hit that mark or maybe they do like 1440p upscale to 4k 

[Edgar R. Zakarian]

Consoles don't usually last 8 Years in the past it was much shorter, PS3 Xbox were exceptions to this and were very High end when they came out. I think Sony and microsoft have both hinted this generation will not last as long and sony even saying they might think about a higher Performance version of the PS4 in the future. i think were looking more around a 6 year run on theses by then 4k tvs and gaming and content will exist and right now 4k 30fps is pretty easily ran on a $300 dollar card so another 4 years of price decreases and maybe just maybe theyll hit that mark or maybe they do like 1440p upscale to 4k 

But then they'd have to change everything, and basically make a new console anyway, right?

-Unless the CPU actually can handle 4K and not bottleneck the newer GPU.

[michaelocarroll007]

But then they'd have to change everything, and basically make a new console anyway, right?

-Unless the CPU actually can handle 4K and not bottleneck the newer GPU.

Yeah they would probably improve both CPU & GPU if they did this but if it was a PS4 Ultra or whatever they would name the thing  they would build it being compatible with PS4 games in mind and just being able to turn the graphics up a bit or higher FPS and actually run at 1080P

 

i dont think they would target 4k till next gen and even then we will need to see prices of GPUs in 4 more years. Also depends on price range there looking at i think they could do 1080 60fps for a $500-550 dollar console but 4k 30frames medium to high settings compared to PC at like $750 right now this is completely RANDOM guesses and my own opinion so dont take anything to literal haha 

 

Also 4k does not put much more of a load on a CPU if anything it sort of puts less work on a CPU sort of if you set your game to run at 4k and you get 30fps and you then set it at 1080p and your getting 80fps the CPU is usually working harder to run the 80FPS regardless of the resolution  since the CPU has to set up each frame for the GPU to render I believe this is why as when i game at 1080p and 4k my CPU strain is actually less at 4k and why if you have a 144hz moinitor you need a really good CPU 

[skywake]

i dont think they would target 4k till next gen and even then we will need to see prices of GPUs in 4 more years. Also depends on price range there looking at i think they could do 1080 60fps for a $500-550 dollar console but 4k 30frames medium to high settings compared to PC at like $750 right now this is completely RANDOM guesses and my own opinion so dont take anything to literal haha 

Well what sort of GPUs will be at what sort of prices are one of the easiest things to predict. It almost runs like clockwork especially over longer periods of time. If you're talking 4 years from today? 4K will definitely be possible. By then we should be expecting something between the 970 and 980 to be incredibly mid-range. 4 years is a long time. As for backwards compatibility, I highly doubt they're changing architectures again. Given that I wouldn't be at all surprised if there is full backwards compatibility.

 

Look at it this way, around 4 years before the PS4 launched people were bragging about the shiny new 470s and 480s in their machine. Both of them are technically less capable than the PS4. And we all know that the PS4 didn't even try to push the spec. That's how much things can move in 4 years.